2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[bondom34]

So, people seeing it with him now?

And on the offense, his on court O Rating is better than last year, by a huge margin. They're at a 120.7 O rating when he's on court using BBR, last year was 113.7

[slick_watts]

A lot of praise for Russ. I like it because it will leave certain people fuming ( ), but it's a little premature. He needs to score for this team to anywhere in the Playoffs and his defense has not been there all the time either. A couple of games of good effort defensively is not real change, yet.

EDIT: I just saw that Russ is leading the league in DBPM.

fuming? nah. in fact, your commentary here is exactly what i would say. that while short term defensive performance may be encouraging, it's not indicative of 'real change' yet. and that the team isn't going to do anything significant with westbrook's scoring efficiency maintaining. especially with schroder on the team also.

my issue is with the r/thunder like overreaction or obfuscation takes. i.e. matt moore claiming westbrook is having his best season in years, or the people just flat out ignoring that he's < 50% ts on 30+ usage at the moment and can't make free throws.

[Pillendreher]

To be honest i think this Russ is what we okc fans have wanted for years.

Well no, not really. I don't want a Russ that gives up the ball and then just watches for the rest of the possession. I don't want a Russ that takes more 3s than shots at the rim in the Westbrook-Schröder-George lineup since coming back from the injury.

Westbrook needs to be the engine of this team offensively. If George keeps this up, he doesn't need to break usage records for that (some stats actually resemble those of Westbrook's last season with Durant), but we can't try to turn him into a guy who takes a backseat to Dennis freaking Schröder. That's not going to cut it in the Playoffs.

And on the offense, his on court O Rating is better than last year, by a huge margin. They're at a 120.7 O rating when he's on court using BBR, last year was 113.7

This whole possession thing is just so weird. On stats.nba.com, the discrepancy isn't nearly as big: 111.7 last season, 113.7 this season. On pbpstats.com it's 113.9 last season, 115.9 this season. On ctg it's 112.4 last season, 114.9 this season. Basically a 2pp100p swing everywhere else.

[bondom34]

To be honest i think this Russ is what we okc fans have wanted for years.

Well no, not really. I don't want a Russ that gives up the ball and then just watches for the rest of the possession. I don't want a Russ that takes more 3s than shots at the rim in the Westbrook-Schröder-George lineup since coming back from the injury.

Westbrook needs to be the engine of this team offensively. If George keeps this up, he doesn't need to break usage records for that (some stats actually resemble those of Westbrook's last season with Durant), but we can't try to turn him into a guy who takes a backseat to Dennis freaking Schröder. That's not going to cut it in the Playoffs.

And on the offense, his on court O Rating is better than last year, by a huge margin. They're at a 120.7 O rating when he's on court using BBR, last year was 113.7

This whole possession thing is just so weird. On stats.nba.com, the discrepancy isn't nearly as big: 111.7 last season, 113.7 this season. On pbpstats.com it's 113.9 last season, 115.9 this season. On ctg it's 112.4 last season, 114.9 this season. Basically a 2pp100p swing everywhere else.

I kinda think he is being the engine. He's just not scoring to do so. He's 1st in the league in potential assists, again, and by a huge margin.

And yeah I don't get the big differences in possessions either. But he's consistently been better, and that's with his shooting like this. Which I think says something.

[slick_watts]

i do not understand giving russell westbrook unilateral credit for the offense being decent when he is in. that's what i mean by obfuscation. the offense has been good = westbrook has been good is a non sequitur.

[Pillendreher]

I kinda think he is being the engine. He's just not scoring to do so.

And that's a problem. Because there will always be games where we need him to put the team on his back and win the game for them. He needed to do that vs the Pelicans and didn't. He needed to do that vs the Nuggets and didn't. He needs to be able to be more than a ~20ish ppg guy on horrible efficiency.

He's 1st in the league in potential assists, again, and by a huge margin.

What is that supposed to mean though? It doesn't tell me anything about the offense that's being created. Just that he's setting up teammates for shots.

And yeah I don't get the big differences in possessions either. But he's consistently been better, and that's with his shooting like this. Which I think says something.

The shooting with him on the floor has actually better than one might think. Westbrook-George-Adams is at 34.7 % from 3 as a lineup. Every starter sans Westbrook and Adams is shooting well from 3 while playing in the starting 5: Ferguson 52.4 % (21 total attempts), Grant 36.8 % (19 total attempts) and George 39.5 % (38 total attempts). And if you just look at those guys individually while sharing the floor with Westbrook, you get 41 % from 3 for George, 41 % from 3 for Ferguson and 39 % from 3 for Grant. The big issues even with Westbrook being on the floor remain Abrines and Patterson shooting below 30 %.

[RunOKC]

i do not understand giving russell westbrook unilateral credit for the offense being decent when he is in. that's what i mean by obfuscation. the offense has been good = westbrook has been good is a non sequitur.

Every year the offense is best when Westbrook is in. It isn't a coincidence. You can argue many reasons why the offense is better this year, but it doesn't change the fact that Russ is part of that.

e: I agree he shouldn't get all the credit though

[slick_watts]

i do not understand giving russell westbrook unilateral credit for the offense being decent when he is in. that's what i mean by obfuscation. the offense has been good = westbrook has been good is a non sequitur.

Every year the offense is best when Westbrook is in. It isn't a coincidence. You can argue many reasons why the offense is better this year, but it doesn't change the fact that Russ is part of that.

but... our offense is worse this season. we're below league average.

and of course the offense is best when westbrook is in the game. he's a great player, and far superior to any of the backups we've had. that's not the point i'm making, which is that making the statement that offense good = westbrook good is sort of lazy and imo obfuscating analysis since we have so many tools to evaluate him otherwise. it just seems like a way to avoid talking about how inefficient he has been as a scorer and how that is impacting the team.

[bondom34]

I kinda think he is being the engine. He's just not scoring to do so.

And that's a problem. Because there will always be games where we need him to put the team on his back and win the game for them. He needed to do that vs the Pelicans and didn't. He needed to do that vs the Nuggets and didn't. He needs to be able to be more than a ~20ish ppg guy on horrible efficiency.

He's 1st in the league in potential assists, again, and by a huge margin.

What is that supposed to mean though? It doesn't tell me anything about the offense that's being created. Just that he's setting up teammates for shots.

And yeah I don't get the big differences in possessions either. But he's consistently been better, and that's with his shooting like this. Which I think says something.

The shooting with him on the floor has actually better than one might think. Westbrook-George-Adams is at 34.7 % from 3 as a lineup. Every starter sans Westbrook and Adams is shooting well from 3 while playing in the starting 5: Ferguson 52.4 % (21 total attempts), Grant 36.8 % (19 total attempts) and George 39.5 % (38 total attempts). And if you just look at those guys individually while sharing the floor with Westbrook, you get 41 % from 3 for George, 41 % from 3 for Ferguson and 39 % from 3 for Grant. The big issues even with Westbrook being on the floor remain Abrines and Patterson shooting below 30 %.

Agree that ideally he'd be scoring better too. But right now he's doing literally every other thing at a very high level which is just as good IMO as if he's scoring but not doing some of the other stuff as well.

i do not understand giving russell westbrook unilateral credit for the offense being decent when he is in. that's what i mean by obfuscation. the offense has been good = westbrook has been good is a non sequitur.

But the offense being best in the league good should be a pretty good indicator. PG gets a ton of credit as well, I wouldn't suggest otherwise. As does Adams. But Westbrook has been excellent at every facet people harped on for years and is now getting no credit for it. The offense as a team is worse. The offense when he's actually playing is notably better.

[slick_watts]

I kinda think he is being the engine. He's just not scoring to do so.

And that's a problem. Because there will always be games where we need him to put the team on his back and win the game for them. He needed to do that vs the Pelicans and didn't. He needed to do that vs the Nuggets and didn't. He needs to be able to be more than a ~20ish ppg guy on horrible efficiency.

He's 1st in the league in potential assists, again, and by a huge margin.

What is that supposed to mean though? It doesn't tell me anything about the offense that's being created. Just that he's setting up teammates for shots.

And yeah I don't get the big differences in possessions either. But he's consistently been better, and that's with his shooting like this. Which I think says something.

The shooting with him on the floor has actually better than one might think. Westbrook-George-Adams is at 34.7 % from 3 as a lineup. Every starter sans Westbrook and Adams is shooting well from 3 while playing in the starting 5: Ferguson 52.4 % (21 total attempts), Grant 36.8 % (19 total attempts) and George 39.5 % (38 total attempts). And if you just look at those guys individually while sharing the floor with Westbrook, you get 41 % from 3 for George, 41 % from 3 for Ferguson and 39 % from 3 for Grant. The big issues even with Westbrook being on the floor remain Abrines and Patterson shooting below 30 %.

Agree that ideally he'd be scoring better too. But right now he's doing literally every other thing at a very high level which is just as good IMO as if he's scoring but not doing some of the other stuff as well.

i do not understand giving russell westbrook unilateral credit for the offense being decent when he is in. that's what i mean by obfuscation. the offense has been good = westbrook has been good is a non sequitur.

But the offense being best in the league good should be a pretty good indicator. PG gets a ton of credit as well, I wouldn't suggest otherwise. As does Adams. But Westbrook has been excellent at every facet people harped on for years and is now getting no credit for it. The offense as a team is worse. The offense when he's actually playing is notably better.

westbrook should get credit for some things. his pnr game unlocks adams and grant in particular. i think based on pp100 on westbrook would be 6th or 7th among players on other teams behind anyone in bucks or raptors starting lineups, AD, eric gordon, nurkic or mccollom, etc. glommed up with some detroit players, harden etc. a lot of this has to do with how much these guys actually play the game with the other best players of their teams so it's a lineup dependent way of evaluating. that's why it just seems like obfuscating to me.

but being 30+ usage on 49% ts is a huge deal that i don't think deserves to be swept under the rug. everything else he's doing is more or less in line with previous seasons so it bugs me when someone says he's been great.. because how can he be great when he's scoring like that?

[bondom34]

And that's a problem. Because there will always be games where we need him to put the team on his back and win the game for them. He needed to do that vs the Pelicans and didn't. He needed to do that vs the Nuggets and didn't. He needs to be able to be more than a ~20ish ppg guy on horrible efficiency.



What is that supposed to mean though? It doesn't tell me anything about the offense that's being created. Just that he's setting up teammates for shots.



The shooting with him on the floor has actually better than one might think. Westbrook-George-Adams is at 34.7 % from 3 as a lineup. Every starter sans Westbrook and Adams is shooting well from 3 while playing in the starting 5: Ferguson 52.4 % (21 total attempts), Grant 36.8 % (19 total attempts) and George 39.5 % (38 total attempts). And if you just look at those guys individually while sharing the floor with Westbrook, you get 41 % from 3 for George, 41 % from 3 for Ferguson and 39 % from 3 for Grant. The big issues even with Westbrook being on the floor remain Abrines and Patterson shooting below 30 %.

Agree that ideally he'd be scoring better too. But right now he's doing literally every other thing at a very high level which is just as good IMO as if he's scoring but not doing some of the other stuff as well.

i do not understand giving russell westbrook unilateral credit for the offense being decent when he is in. that's what i mean by obfuscation. the offense has been good = westbrook has been good is a non sequitur.

But the offense being best in the league good should be a pretty good indicator. PG gets a ton of credit as well, I wouldn't suggest otherwise. As does Adams. But Westbrook has been excellent at every facet people harped on for years and is now getting no credit for it. The offense as a team is worse. The offense when he's actually playing is notably better.

westbrook should get credit for some things. his pnr game unlocks adams and grant in particular. i think based on pp100 on westbrook would be 6th or 7th among players on other teams behind anyone in bucks or raptors starting lineups, AD, eric gordon, nurkic or mccollom, etc. glommed up with some detroit players, harden etc. a lot of this has to do with how much these guys actually play the game with the other best players of their teams so it's a lineup dependent way of evaluating. that's why it just seems like obfuscating to me.

but being 30+ usage on 49% ts is a huge deal that i don't think deserves to be swept under the rug. everything else he's doing is more or less in line with previous seasons so it bugs me when someone says he's been great.. because how can he be great when he's scoring like that?

It probably can't be totally ignored, but if you're doing everything else at a super high level, and more notably every thing that everyone's told you you should always be doing, yes it absolutely is notable. He's been 35ish usage on .52 TS, and if he's that or deferring more and scoring a little worse while the team is better as a fan I'd rather that. To me it's a relatively minor thing, as TS isnt' an indicator of offensive impact individually.

Basically he's become what everyone told him to, and now he still gets no credit.

[Pillendreher]

but... our offense is worse this season. we're below league average.

Something to consider when talking about this: Per cleaningtheglass.com, the offense goes from the 87th percentile with Westbrook ON to the 12th percentile with Westbrook OFF. The ORtG with Westbrook on the floor has basically remained at its current level after a slow start:



Meanwhile the bench has been well below average offensively for quite some time:



That's almost a 25pp100p swing offensively which is insane. I don't know if you can blame that on Westbrook.

[slick_watts]

Agree that ideally he'd be scoring better too. But right now he's doing literally every other thing at a very high level which is just as good IMO as if he's scoring but not doing some of the other stuff as well.



But the offense being best in the league good should be a pretty good indicator. PG gets a ton of credit as well, I wouldn't suggest otherwise. As does Adams. But Westbrook has been excellent at every facet people harped on for years and is now getting no credit for it. The offense as a team is worse. The offense when he's actually playing is notably better.

westbrook should get credit for some things. his pnr game unlocks adams and grant in particular. i think based on pp100 on westbrook would be 6th or 7th among players on other teams behind anyone in bucks or raptors starting lineups, AD, eric gordon, nurkic or mccollom, etc. glommed up with some detroit players, harden etc. a lot of this has to do with how much these guys actually play the game with the other best players of their teams so it's a lineup dependent way of evaluating. that's why it just seems like obfuscating to me.

but being 30+ usage on 49% ts is a huge deal that i don't think deserves to be swept under the rug. everything else he's doing is more or less in line with previous seasons so it bugs me when someone says he's been great.. because how can he be great when he's scoring like that?

It probably can't be totally ignored, but if you're doing everything else at a super high level, and more notably every thing that everyone's told you you should always be doing, yes it absolutely is notable. He's been 35ish usage on .52 TS, and if he's that or deferring more and scoring a little worse while the team is better as a fan I'd rather that. To me it's a relatively minor thing, as TS isnt' an indicator of offensive impact individually.

Basically he's become what everyone told him to, and now he still gets no credit.

for a player using as many possessions as westbrook does attempting to score, ts% is a HUGE indicator of individual offensive impact. he hasn't really done much at all different this year imo except that and all the steals he's getting.

is the team really better? what happens when paul george isn't playing like prime kd anymore? is westbrook with 25 usage and shooting mostly threes with george and schroder in the game optimal? the defense has been fantastic and is what is carrying the team.

he's become what everyone told him to? what's that mean?

[slick_watts]

but... our offense is worse this season. we're below league average.

Something to consider when talking about this: Per cleaningtheglass.com, the offense goes from the 87th percentile with Westbrook ON to the 12th percentile with Westbrook OFF. The ORtG with Westbrook on the floor has basically remained at its current level after a slow start:

That's almost a 25pp100p swing offensively which is insane. I don't know if you can blame that on Westbrook.

i wasn't really being 100% serious with that comment, of course i know the offense has been bad mostly with the bench.

this is just another reason why surface analysis of team pp100 is a crude way of measuring individual impact.

[bondom34]

westbrook should get credit for some things. his pnr game unlocks adams and grant in particular. i think based on pp100 on westbrook would be 6th or 7th among players on other teams behind anyone in bucks or raptors starting lineups, AD, eric gordon, nurkic or mccollom, etc. glommed up with some detroit players, harden etc. a lot of this has to do with how much these guys actually play the game with the other best players of their teams so it's a lineup dependent way of evaluating. that's why it just seems like obfuscating to me.

but being 30+ usage on 49% ts is a huge deal that i don't think deserves to be swept under the rug. everything else he's doing is more or less in line with previous seasons so it bugs me when someone says he's been great.. because how can he be great when he's scoring like that?

It probably can't be totally ignored, but if you're doing everything else at a super high level, and more notably every thing that everyone's told you you should always be doing, yes it absolutely is notable. He's been 35ish usage on .52 TS, and if he's that or deferring more and scoring a little worse while the team is better as a fan I'd rather that. To me it's a relatively minor thing, as TS isnt' an indicator of offensive impact individually.

Basically he's become what everyone told him to, and now he still gets no credit.

for a player using as many possessions as westbrook does attempting to score, ts% is a HUGE indicator of individual offensive impact. he hasn't really done much at all different this year imo except that and all the steals he's getting.

is the team really better? what happens when paul george isn't playing like prime kd anymore? is westbrook with 25 usage and shooting mostly threes with george and schroder in the game optimal? the defense has been fantastic and is what is carrying the team.

he's become what everyone told him to? what's that mean?

He's taking 2.5 less shots per game, usage is down over 4 percent, he's distributing well, his raw TO numbers are down, he's defending well. If you don't think he's doing anything different that's a hard disagree, and seems from everything else most would disagree with that vehemently as well.

And just for curiosity:

Per CTG:

Westbrook/George: 1406 possessions, 116.1 Ortg
Westbrook, no George: 221 possessions, 107.7

Harden/Paul: 979 possessions, 109.7
Harden, no Paul: 951, 119.7 (Paul has been poo)

Davis/Holiday: 1829 possessions, 117.1
Davis, no Holiday: 357, 105.0
Holiday, no Davis: 1033, 109.9

Leonard/Lowry: 3119, 113.1
Leonard, no Lowry: 450, 108.2

So using those 3 his minutes with George have mostly been in line distribution wise with the exception of Houston who's had injury/suspension issues.

[slick_watts]

He's taking 2.5 less shots per game, usage is down over 4 percent, he's distributing well, his raw TO numbers are down, he's defending well. If you don't think he's doing anything different that's a hard disagree, and seems from everything else most would disagree with that vehemently as well.

i don't think all of these things are positive. i.e. his usage being down, which i think is particular to george / schroder / westbrook lineups. we disagree on how to interpret his turnovers but even a generous interpretation (per minute or per possession) isn't out of line with recent years nor are his assist numbers. defending well? maybe.

he certainly appears different. he's stepping away from the ball more than he has since kd left. i'm just not sure that's necessarily a positive development on the whole. and i don't think any of this makes up for his poor shooting / scoring efficiency. is paul george going to be 60+ ts on 25+ usage with rw in the game forever?

So using those 3 his minutes with George have mostly been in line distribution wise with the exception of Houston who's had injury/suspension issues.

i'm not just talking about star players. westbrook is attached to adams. these rankings on individual ortg while in the game are necessarily susceptible to team differences in lineup and substitution patterns. it makes it hard to take the numbers at face value. or you get things like eric gordon is more important to houston offense than james harden or something.

[bondom34]

He's taking 2.5 less shots per game, usage is down over 4 percent, he's distributing well, his raw TO numbers are down, he's defending well. If you don't think he's doing anything different that's a hard disagree, and seems from everything else most would disagree with that vehemently as well.

i don't think all of these things are positive. i.e. his usage being down, which i think is particular to george / schroder / westbrook lineups. we disagree on how to interpret his turnovers but even a generous interpretation (per minute or per possession) isn't out of line with recent years nor are his assist numbers. defending well? maybe.

he certainly appears different. he's stepping away from the ball more than he has since kd left. i'm just not sure that's necessarily a positive development on the whole. and i don't think any of this makes up for his poor shooting / scoring efficiency. is paul george going to be 60+ ts on 25+ usage with rw in the game forever?

So using those 3 his minutes with George have mostly been in line distribution wise with the exception of Houston who's had injury/suspension issues.

i'm not just talking about star players. westbrook is attached to adams. these rankings on individual ortg while in the game are necessarily susceptible to team differences in lineup and substitution patterns. it makes it hard to take the numbers at face value. or you get things like eric gordon is more important to houston offense than james harden or something.

If they're being played in those lineups optimally, then it really shouldn't matter because he's optimizing his surroundings.

And he's definitely defending well, and he's taking fewer shots on a 3ish percent decline in TS. It's not like he fell from 60% to 50. This literally is the guy people told him to be every year, it's quite funny to me that now it's magically not what some want. I'm thrilled he's getting attention from it from known sources who've been paying attention. I kinda figured you'd keep disagreeing. Not a shot at you, but your persona here vs discord is a bit different . I'll catch you there J.

And btw:

222 possessions without Adams, 111.7 O rating

[slick_watts]

And he's definitely defending well, and he's taking fewer shots on a 3ish percent decline in TS. It's not like he fell from 60% to 50.

you're being a bit insincere here since last year was already a career low since his sophomore season on ts%. he's 4% lower than his career, and 5% lower than his career while an all star. this is a big drop-off. if he went 4-5% the other direction he would probably be easily the best player in the nba.

This literally is the guy people told him to be every year, it's quite funny to me that now it's magically not what some want.

what i want is better shot selection, better shooting percentages, better defense, and better decision making. i think we're getting maybe 1.5 of those things, two if we want to be generous. i'm not enamored with a russell westbrook taking a back seat offensively to dennis schroder and paul george. that's not what i want him to be, or ever wanted him to be. in fact, early last year, i was insistent that westbrook stop deferring so much to melo and george because that's just not making the best use of his skill set.

I'm thrilled he's getting attention from it from known sources who've been paying attention.

this is a narrative. i haven't seen any substantive, objective basis for these opinions. i think it's interesting that all of a sudden apm metrics aren't being considered.

[bondom34]

And he's definitely defending well, and he's taking fewer shots on a 3ish percent decline in TS. It's not like he fell from 60% to 50.

you're being a bit insincere here since last year was already a career low since his sophomore season on ts%. he's 4% lower than his career, and 5% lower than his career while an all star. this is a big drop-off. if he went 4-5% the other direction he would probably be easily the best player in the nba.

This literally is the guy people told him to be every year, it's quite funny to me that now it's magically not what some want.

what i want is better shot selection, better shooting percentages, better defense, and better decision making. i think we're getting maybe 1.5 of those things, two if we want to be generous. i'm not enamored with a russell westbrook taking a back seat offensively to dennis schroder and paul george. that's not what i want him to be, or ever wanted him to be. in fact, early last year, i was insistent that westbrook stop deferring so much to melo and george because that's just not making the best use of his skill set.

I'm thrilled he's getting attention from it from known sources who've been paying attention.

this is a narrative. i haven't seen any substantive, objective basis for these opinions. i think it's interesting that all of a sudden apm metrics aren't being considered.

I'm just glad you get to decide all the stories that praise players you hate are narrative now.

And for what you want, you've seen at least 2 of those things. You've ignored them, but you've seen them. And he's mostly taking better shots with the exception of a few games.

I'll see you on discord J, honestly like you there . You're doing the thing here and I'm in a good mood.

[RalphSampsonJr]

To be honest i think this Russ is what we okc fans have wanted for years.

Well no, not really. I don't want a Russ that gives up the ball and then just watches for the rest of the possession. I don't want a Russ that takes more 3s than shots at the rim in the Westbrook-Schröder-George lineup since coming back from the injury.

Westbrook needs to be the engine of this team offensively. If George keeps this up, he doesn't need to break usage records for that (some stats actually resemble those of Westbrook's last season with Durant), but we can't try to turn him into a guy who takes a backseat to Dennis freaking Schröder. That's not going to cut it in the Playoffs.

And on the offense, his on court O Rating is better than last year, by a huge margin. They're at a 120.7 O rating when he's on court using BBR, last year was 113.7

This whole possession thing is just so weird. On stats.nba.com, the discrepancy isn't nearly as big: 111.7 last season, 113.7 this season. On pbpstats.com it's 113.9 last season, 115.9 this season. On ctg it's 112.4 last season, 114.9 this season. Basically a 2pp100p swing everywhere else.

Yea we all know Russ has habits like not moving off ball which will be hard to break but if hes taking less than 20 shots a game, not giving up defense possessions and getting all the other starters going then im all for it.

Last night was a great snapshot of what can be. Adams possessions are up in dec, grants scoring at a higher clip and PG is the definite 1st option.

Alot of teams caught on to westbrook over the last two seasons. They knew he would get emotional and try win games himself. Teams knew if he took 30+ shots they would beat the thunder.

Now you have alot.to worry about. PG playing at an mvp level, Adams posting up now demanding double teams as well as Grant putting the ball on the floor and beating slower pfs off the dribble