Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread)

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MVP in 25-26?

Jokic
117
27%
SGA
83
19%
Luka
79
18%
Giannis
47
11%
Edwards
4
1%
Wembanyama
70
16%
Mobley
2
0%
Brunson
7
2%
Davis
1
0%
Other (post below)
25
6%
 
Total votes: 435

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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1861 » by lethalizer » Today 7:31 am

Black star wrote:
lethalizer wrote:
Cubbies2120 wrote:
Jokic leads the league in:

Raw Stats - RPG, APG, 5th in PPG on 73 TS%...

Adv Stats - PER, VORP, ORTG, BPM, OBPM, DBPM

And his usage % is closer to Nickeil Alexander Walker than it is to SGA...

Pretty wild when you consider that last point ^


The advanced stats you're providing here aren't really advanced at all anymore. They're purely box score related.

Especially citing DBPM here is absolutely comical, sorry mate. A defensive stat that weighs assists heavily for the Center position shouldn't be taken seriously at all, we know how these formulas work, it's 2025.

ORTG is a very bad stat to use as a single player as well, unless you believe Jordan Walsh is the 4th best offensive player in the NBA and Peyton Watson to be a better offensive player than Nikola Jokic.

PER I won't even argue about anymore, it's been outdated for a good while.

VORP and BPM at least have their uses still, VORP still has its outliers but has fewer than others, and at least the best players tend to be correctly placed at the top from what I know.

I've made the cases for Jokic being the MVP from 2021 on myself a bunch of times using none of the advanced metrics you pointed but other ones like LEBRON and EPM. It's just weird that some of the metrics I used to favor him now have him 2nd but apparently the Jokic crowd who loved those stats now don't like them that much anymore, so the user above is right when it comes to that one.

I don't have a problem with Jokic winning the MVP. The discourse is getting weird these couple of seasons, is what I'm saying.

For your future info, VORP is not really a separate stat from BPM either. It's basically just BPM multiplied by a "minute's played" number. OBPM, DBPM, and VORP are just stats made using the BPM number.

And yeah BPM is the one that Westbrook already broke before that is doubling assist values for centers and also giving additional value to high assist centers as plus defenders.


Yeah I don't have the formula for all of these, thanks for the extra clarification.

DBPM I know by memory cause once I saw the calculation for it was BPM-OBPM, it was obvious as I knew BPM has those positional weights for different stats.

Even the creator of the stat itself has this as a note:

"Box Plus/Minus is a very good offensive metric, but it struggles some with defense. As mentioned before, when all you have is a box score, you cannot estimate defense very well. Not including minutes per game in the regression also hampers the accuracy of the defensive estimates. In other words--take DBPM with a spoonful of salt."
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1862 » by Andri » Today 10:20 am

it never fails.

Jokic has a great game, you have SGA's fans doing overtime posting like crazy, even more than Jokic's fans.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1863 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Today 11:08 am

Defense is the difference along with team success but the former especially seems to get lost in these convos.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1864 » by _NoMas » Today 11:27 am

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:Defense is the difference along with team success but the former especially seems to get lost in these convos.


Works both ways though. I see a lot of SGA fans talk about how important defence is. Until it comes to comparing rosters… in which case ‘joker has loads of help, look at all these 50 point team mates’. No word on defence then, where OKC has probably 8-9 of the 10 best defenders between the combined rosters.

That said, and despite being a Jokic guy, SGA is the MVP right now and even with the crazy Jokic numbers, I’m not sure if it’s particularly close atm.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1865 » by hagredionis » Today 12:13 pm

Cubbies2120 wrote:Jokic leads the league in:

Raw Stats - RPG, APG, 5th in PPG on 73 TS%...

Adv Stats - PER, VORP, ORTG, BPM, OBPM, DBPM

And his usage % is closer to Nickeil Alexander Walker than it is to SGA...

Pretty wild when you consider that last point ^


ok Jokic DPOY according to the advanced stats. lol.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1866 » by Optms » Today 12:28 pm

Andri wrote:it never fails.

Jokic has a great game, you have SGA's fans doing overtime posting like crazy, even more than Jokic's fans.


That's great for Jokic. He's still not the MVP.

One guy is posting historic numbers and anchoring a 70+ win team. Like someone else said, discussion is for 2nd between Luka vs Jokic. So far Jokic gets the nod for playing more games even though the Luka led Lakers have played a harder schedule. So great game for Jokic versus the stellar Kings.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1867 » by Optms » Today 12:37 pm

MaliBrah wrote:People putting Shai possibly winning this mvp down to just team record is funny.

He's playing better than everyone else too :dontknow:


Last 2 players to lead a 70 win team.

Michael Jordan
Stephen Curry

That is it and those two are on the GOAT tier. Shai is having one of the greatest years ever. Thunder are probably a 50 win team without Shai. But Shai is making this team historic. The numbers, individually nevermind record, reflect this.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1868 » by kazyv » Today 1:01 pm

Optms wrote:
MaliBrah wrote:People putting Shai possibly winning this mvp down to just team record is funny.

He's playing better than everyone else too :dontknow:


Last 2 players to lead a 70 win team.

Michael Jordan
Stephen Curry

That is it and those two are on the GOAT tier. Shai is having one of the greatest years ever. Thunder are probably a 50 win team without Shai. But Shai is making this team historic. The numbers, individually nevermind record, reflect this.


I feel like Shai is being set up to fail with the hot start they've got going right now. Realistically, I don't see him continue having those stats for the entire season. The team, yeah, they can win 70+ because the team is that good. Though I guess a lot of the advanced stats are a function of the team being that good, so it's possible that he will retain the lead if they continue dominating like that
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1869 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Today 1:04 pm

_NoMas wrote:
MoneyTalks41890 wrote:Defense is the difference along with team success but the former especially seems to get lost in these convos.


Works both ways though. I see a lot of SGA fans talk about how important defence is. Until it comes to comparing rosters… in which case ‘joker has loads of help, look at all these 50 point team mates’. No word on defence then, where OKC has probably 8-9 of the 10 best defenders between the combined rosters.

That said, and despite being a Jokic guy, SGA is the MVP right now and even with the crazy Jokic numbers, I’m not sure if it’s particularly close atm.


We have that discussion pretty much every day. SGA adds to the all-time defense. He’s good individually and within the team scheme.

Jokic has been getting killed in space this year due to his lack of mobility but remains extremely smart and large defensively.

The gap on defense is bigger than the gap on offense.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1870 » by The Master » Today 1:44 pm

Optms wrote:Like someone else said, discussion is for 2nd between Luka vs Jokic. So far Jokic gets the nod for playing more games even though the Luka led Lakers have played a harder schedule.
Jokic is ahead because he's clearly a superior player than Doncic, both in boxscore and advanced metrics.
kazyv wrote:I feel like Shai is being set up to fail with the hot start they've got going right now. Realistically, I don't see him continue having those stats for the entire season. The team, yeah, they can win 70+ because the team is that good. Though I guess a lot of the advanced stats are a function of the team being that good, so it's possible that he will retain the lead if they continue dominating like that
Thunder have had the easiest schedule in the league (or smth like that), so Shai won't be as dominant (although he may keep up with his new shooting splits) - but he'll be still dominant and more importantly Thunder are a ~70-win team with last year's Shai anyways. If he stays healthy, he'll be a b2b MVP.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1871 » by Exp0sed » Today 1:58 pm

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:Defense is the difference along with team success but the former especially seems to get lost in these convos.


that's a tough sell when OKC would clearly be the number one defense in the league even without SGA. do u think perhaps that has something to do with it being "lost" in the convo? :)
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1872 » by Exp0sed » Today 2:44 pm

Optms wrote:
MaliBrah wrote:People putting Shai possibly winning this mvp down to just team record is funny.

He's playing better than everyone else too :dontknow:


Last 2 players to lead a 70 win team.

Michael Jordan
Stephen Curry

That is it and those two are on the GOAT tier. Shai is having one of the greatest years ever. Thunder are probably a 50 win team without Shai. But Shai is making this team historic. The numbers, individually nevermind record, reflect this.


I would argue that 20-25 wins "added" is kind of the norm for an MVP caliber player (the top end of MVP caliber players)

Thunder are like 24-1, that makes SGA the front runner for MVP and very likely will his second but he is NOT playing better than Jokic, come on now...

they're close no doubt, but a close 2nd is still 2nd
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1873 » by Castle Black » Today 3:58 pm

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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1874 » by Cubbies2120 » Today 4:04 pm

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He's de-sensitized people to this. If you're watching someone play at top 5 level for 5 YEARS (excl. his first MVP), you just get used to it...subconsciously, it doesn't impress people anymore because that's just "standard Jokic". That's why newcomers to the MVP scene (like SGA) are impressing folks while having the 2nd best season this year.

It's the same thing we had to do with Wilt...

"Best X since Wilt" is gonna become "Best X since Jokic" pretty soon...
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1875 » by OkcSinceSGA » Today 6:42 pm

Both again having top 5 all time seasons... but SGA wins in a landslide by the end. Why? Because OKC is likely to win 75 ish games... and SGA is putting up 35/6/7 with low turnovers, great defense in low minutes on near 70% TS. He barely plays 4th quarters. He's done this with star players out of his lineup all year. SGA is beating up on Jokic in the stat he usually dominates handily which is ws/48 . SGA is at .398 which has never been hit before, not even close. Jordan peaked around .320. SGA's 11 EPM is also the greatest in NBA history I'm sure, he's smoking Jokic who is at 9.5.

EPM shows SGA at 95% of Jokic offensively, but nearly 20x greater score defensively.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1876 » by bisme37 » Today 7:15 pm

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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1877 » by mademan » Today 8:05 pm

Cubbies2120 wrote:
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He's de-sensitized people to this. If you're watching someone play at top 5 level for 5 YEARS (excl. his first MVP), you just get used to it...subconsciously, it doesn't impress people anymore because that's just "standard Jokic". That's why newcomers to the MVP scene (like SGA) are impressing folks while having the 2nd best season this year.

It's the same thing we had to do with Wilt...

"Best X since Wilt" is gonna become "Best X since Jokic" pretty soon...


Shai is impressing people because he's currently having the best guard season ever on a possible 70+ win team. What Jokic is doing is absolutely insane, but he's not up against just another average MVP candidate. He's playing at levels never before seen, but so is Shai. Being even more ridiculous is awesome, but it's understandable why Shai is currently 1st in MVP odds.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1878 » by Andri » 47 minutes ago

OkcSinceSGA wrote:Both again having top 5 all time seasons... but SGA wins in a landslide by the end. Why? Because OKC is likely to win 75 ish games... and SGA is putting up 35/6/7 with low turnovers, great defense in low minutes on near 70% TS. He barely plays 4th quarters. He's done this with star players out of his lineup all year. SGA is beating up on Jokic in the stat he usually dominates handily which is ws/48 . SGA is at .398 which has never been hit before, not even close. Jordan peaked around .320. SGA's 11 EPM is also the greatest in NBA history I'm sure, he's smoking Jokic who is at 9.5.

EPM shows SGA at 95% of Jokic offensively, but nearly 20x greater score defensively.


For what SGA is doing, he is not playing great defense, good is enough. He is likely the 4th to 6th best defender of his team.
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Re: Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread) 

Post#1879 » by Manimal » 21 minutes ago

OkcSinceSGA wrote:SGA is beating up on Jokic in the stat he usually dominates handily which is ws/48 . SGA is at .398 which has never been hit before, not even close.



Beating up on? SGA is at .398 in WS/48...but Jokic is at .397. Wouldn't exactly call that some kind of dominant lead. And Jokic is also leading in straight WS and on pace to get to 23.5 for the season. Only two players have topped 20 since the 1970s, being Lebron James in 08/09 at 20.25 and Michael Jordan three times (20.30, 20.43, 21.23).

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