WargamesX wrote:Chanel Bomber wrote:nykballa2k4 wrote:
Show your work, because I don't think you are correct. Grant, ball, lil ice tray, all are just as inefficient.
Inefficiency is worse when you are a point guard because your job is to find efficient shots...
Pretty easy:
Jerami Grant 98 league-adjusted TS% (a little below average)
Lamelo Ball 98 league-adjusted TS% (a little below average)
Trae Young 107 league-adjusted TS% (way above average)
RJ Barrett 90 league-adjusted TS% (way below average, bottom of the league among volume scorers)
Also, being an elite playmaker actually gives you
some leeway to not score the ball as efficiently, as you supposedly create more efficient shots for your teammates through your playmaking skills.
RJ doesn't project as a Pierce, Middleton, Butler, Harden-level player. These guys were all efficient by their 3rd season. Butler was below-average in efficiency in his 3rd season (and by a hair in his rookie season) but that was an outlier - he has been efficient in every other season. RJ is so far below-average that it's unrealistic to expect him to reach them.
Statistically, he is more comparable to guys like Jamal Mashburn, Eric Williams, Dion Waiters, Andrew Wiggins, Jrue Holiday (minus the defensive impact), Antoine Walker or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. That's his company. So the best-case scenario is probably Wiggins.
There are so many caveats to your statistics ignoring the horrible teams RJ played on, a season that was barely a season due to Covid, and the fact that outside of Pierce none of the guys you mentioned were asked to basically be the second option this early in their careers. I am not saying ignore RJ’s lack of efficiency, or that he will become a star.
However to say he is on par with Dion Waiters of all people….

Dion Waiters…

Well that reflects worst on your analysis than him as a player.
I didn't make these comparisons as some form of analysis, these are just some of the players who statistically compare most closely to RJ after 3 years. It can't be overstated how inefficient RJ has been. He was also inefficient last year where he was primarily used as a role player, by the way, not just when he was the second or first option.
I think RJ will end up better than Waiters, but I view Waiters/Tyreke as his floor, and Wiggins/Mashburn/Holiday (without the elite defense) as his ceiling. He'll probably end up somewhere in between. He could still become a valuable player in the right role.
But you're setting yourself up for disappointment - and everyone else to fail - if your expectation is Pierce, Middleton, Butler or Harden. These guys met a baseline of efficiency early, and then expanded their skill sets. RJ hasn't met this baseline even in a more limited role (e.g. in 2020-21 or in 2021-22 before Kemba was benched).