Official Trade Thread Part XLVII

[WallToWall]

Kuminga has asked for a trade. Expiring contracts are what is being looked for in exchange. Hmmm…
Is Kuminga better than anyone we can sign in free agency?

[Silvie Lysandra]

Kuminga has asked for a trade. Expiring contracts are what is being looked for in exchange. Hmmm…
Is Kuminga better than anyone we can sign in free agency?

I'd seriously hold out to see if we can get AD for pennies on the dollar. Idk how much of the 4 he can still play, but he'd add depth, more rim protection and rebounding if nothing else. Definitely better than paying Hartenstein if he's healthy, at least.

[doclinkin]

Oh I agree! But, given their history of excellent talent evaluation, I could easily see them keeping him.

Given that we'd have no reason or inclination to keep Tillman, the only benefit is in the higher R2 pick. Which might suffice, to be sure, especially if we really like enough of the bigs in this draft to roll the dice on getting one of them w/ that higher R2 pick -- e.g. Nkongba, Diop, Condon, Faye, Ejiofor, Jefferson, Toppin, Morez Johnson, Bidunga, Ivisic 1 & 2, Chinyelu, Ruzic...

Danm! there's a lot of them! What a draft!

We could also package that #33 with our second FRP to move up a bit more.

First we swap our #30 with a team like LA in a BOYD trade and move up to #22 or so. Then we package that #22 with our #33 to move up to #18 or so. That might be in the range to grab a guy like Acuff or Yaxel.

Sounds good to me!

Except (again) we don’t have the 33. Because it goes to New York. Hopefully.

And the 43 from Chicago went in the Whitmore trade (just in case someone tries to trade that one again).

[doclinkin]

Personally given Ware is in Coach Spo’s doghouse I’d be looking for a trade to pick him up.

[closg00]

Personally given Ware is in Coach Spo’s doghouse I’d be looking for a trade to pick him up.

Bub for Ware, a draft re-do

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Personally given Ware is in Coach Spo’s doghouse I’d be looking for a trade to pick him up.

Bub for Ware, a draft re-do

Spo doesn't like his professionalism. Ware, apparently, doesn't bring it every day.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1lyg5vw/coach_spoelstra_with_a_strong_statement_on_kelel/

There was pre-draft negative murmuring about Ware when he declared for the draft coming out of college at Indiana.

How is his actual NBA performance?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wareke01.html

In one word: terrific. Another: improving.

Ware averages almost 15 rebounds per-36 minutes this season. He shoots over 40% from 3PT.

Ware is 2nd in the NBA in rebound percentage. He is among the leaders in a number of defensive statistics. Eric Spoelstra must hate the guy for Haywood/EJ reasons.

Ware averages 11.7 points and 9.9 rebounds in only 24.1 minutes.

Eighteen and fifteen over 36 is great for a second year player.

Something must be SERIOUSLY OFF.

[joshuacf]

I didn't have an "original evaluation" of Tristan, & I have no reason whatever to be biased against him. & no he certainly has not "been fine." He's shooting a low percentage, turning the ball over a lot, & generally contributing nothing. This is his 3d year &, if anything, his worst.

Compare the two guys on this page -- per 36 minutes this season -- & tell me what you see & what it tells you:
https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=baglema01&year_min=2026&player_id1=vukcetr01&seasons_type=forall&request=1&utm_id=vukcetr01&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison

Nobody is arguing that Vuk is a better player than Bagley is right now. But the idea that you're going to use raw totals to prove that is hilarious when one guy plays 19 mpg and the other plays 11.

What I do see, however, is a very nice 61.7 field goal % for Vuk from 2 point range, and a very nice 76.4 FT%. His overall FG percentage and advanced shooting stats get dragged down by his very poor 3 point percentage, but the 2PT and FT percentages show that if he either develops a decent 3PT shot or stops shooting 3PT's, he can be an effective offensive player.

Say, I wonder what happens if you compare Bagley's 3rd year in the league to Vuk's...

[nate33]

Except (again) we don’t have the 33. Because it goes to New York. Hopefully.

And the 43 from Chicago went in the Whitmore trade (just in case someone tries to trade that one again).

In the context of this discussion, that #33 pick was obtained by trading Bagley to Boston for their New Orleans SRP.

[doclinkin]

Ah. Got it. Didn’t read back far enough.

[Frichuela]

Given Bilal's injury woes, I wonder if Denver would be amenable to a trade for Peyton Watson by this deadline.

Nate floated the idea of a Bilal for Watson trade. When Bilal is up for an extension, they will be off Cam Johnson's contract.

Denver is the number 1 offense but they rank 23rd defensively. Maybe acquiring Bilal pikes their interest...

A Bilal+Bagley for Watson+Valanciunas works on the trade machine...Jonas is currently injured so this should help the tank and offset the positive impact of acquiring Watson this season...

[nate33]

Given Bilal's injury woes, I wonder if Denver would be amenable for a trade for Peyton Watson by this deadline.

Nate floated the idea of a Bilal for Watson trade. When Bilal is up for an extension, they will be off Cam Johnson's contract.

Denver is the number 1 offense but they rank 23rd defensively. Maybe acquiring Bilal pikes their interest...

A Bilal+Bagley for Watson+Valanciunas works on the trade machine...Jonas is currently injured so this should help the tank and offset the positive impact of acquiring Watson this season...

I don't see any way Denver would trade Watson right now. He's not a cap problem until next year. This year, they are trying to win a title.

I expect Denver to stand pat. This summer, they will probably ask around to see if anyone will take Braun or Cameron Johnson off their hands so that they can resign Watson. But that might be tough because any team capable of absorbing those salaries would presumably rather try and go after Watson themselves.

The real question to me is, assuming Denver can't give away Braun or Johnson, will Denver go ahead and match a $25-30M offer sheet for Watson? If they do, they will put themselves in position to pay a luxury tax bill in excess of $210M unless they can find a way to offload some salary before the Trade Deadline. And it will be real hard to move Braun or Johnson then because nobody will have $25M in cap room or giant TPE's in the middle of a season. Someone might extort several future picks out of Denver to dump that salary.

[nate33]

The bottom line is that we are finally starting to see the ramifications of the new hard cap era. In the next year or two, teams like OKC and Denver will be just giving away good players in order to save hundreds of millions of dollars in luxury taxes. NY is also going to have to let Mitchell Robinson walk. Philly will let Quentin Grimes walk. In Summer 2027, Orlando will probably have to let Anthony Black walk.

We are going to want to stay financially flexible to take advantage of these situations. (Which is a big reason why I'd be against extending Trae Young this summer. Just pay him his $49M for next year and keep our options open in Summer 2027.)

[nate33]

Personally given Ware is in Coach Spo’s doghouse I’d be looking for a trade to pick him up.

You gotta be careful about Miami role players who look good for short stints under Spo.

Spo is a genius at putting players in a position to succeed and it often doesn't carry over when the player leaves Miami. Hassan Whiteside was putting up INSANE numbers while in Miami. Spo got MLE sized contracts for journeymen like Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. He put enough lipstick on Josh Richardson to be able to trade him for Jimmy Butler!

[Dat2U]

Personally given Ware is in Coach Spo’s doghouse I’d be looking for a trade to pick him up.

Bub for Ware, a draft re-do

Spo doesn't like his professionalism. Ware, apparently, doesn't bring it every day.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1lyg5vw/coach_spoelstra_with_a_strong_statement_on_kelel/

There was pre-draft negative murmuring about Ware when he declared for the draft coming out of college at Indiana.

How is his actual NBA performance?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wareke01.html

In one word: terrific. Another: improving.

Ware averages almost 15 rebounds per-36 minutes this season. He shoots over 40% from 3PT.

Ware is 2nd in the NBA in rebound percentage. He is among the leaders in a number of defensive statistics. Eric Spoelstra must hate the guy for Haywood/EJ reasons.

Ware averages 11.7 points and 9.9 rebounds in only 24.1 minutes.

Eighteen and fifteen over 36 is great for a second year player.

Something must be SERIOUSLY OFF.

It's Ware's effort on defense. Too many late rotations & blown assignments. Spoelstra does not play around when it comes to defense.

[doclinkin]

It's Ware's effort on defense. Too many late rotations & blown assignments. Spoelstra does not play around when it comes to defense.

His read/recognition has lag. Same reason he has lousy assist numbers. Miami is always trying to win. Every game every year. Spo expects instant understanding and reaction. But fortunately those skills pick up with experience. And we have the time to develop a player. Given he’s out of favor maybe we could get him cheap. Too bad we traded Kispert already though. He’d be a Coach Spo darling. Smart and ahead of speed in BBIQ despite lesser athleticism and length.

[payitforward]

I didn't have an "original evaluation" of Tristan, & I have no reason whatever to be biased against him. & no he certainly has not "been fine." He's shooting a low percentage, turning the ball over a lot, & generally contributing nothing. This is his 3d year &, if anything, his worst.

Compare the two guys on this page -- per 36 minutes this season -- & tell me what you see & what it tells you:
https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=baglema01&year_min=2026&player_id1=vukcetr01&seasons_type=forall&request=1&utm_id=vukcetr01&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison

Nobody is arguing that Vuk is a better player than Bagley is right now. But the idea that you're going to use raw totals to prove that is hilarious when one guy plays 19 mpg and the other plays 11....

Not "raw totals" but production per 36 minutes. Games are won/lost by exactly these numbers & no others.

...I see... a very nice 61.7 field goal % for Vuk from 2 point range, and a very nice 76.4 FT%....

Per 36 minutes, Vuk produces 3.2 more points than Bags. To do so, he takes 4.1 more shots than Bagley & 3.2 more FTAs than Bagley -- a 32.3% total scoring % on that extra effort. In short, he's not anywhere near as effective as Bagley on offense.

If you add the fact that in that same 36 minutes, Bagley adds 4.1 possessions via offensive boards, compared to Vuk's 1.8 -- & gets more steals, & turns the ball over less -- there's really nothing to point to in Vuk's favor over him.

Now... if Vuk were a good defender, you could argue for playing him over Bagley. But, instead, he's known for being a poor defender. Not that Bagley is considered to be particularly good.

...His overall FG percentage and advanced shooting stats get dragged down by his very poor 3 point percentage, but the 2PT and FT percentages show that if he either develops a decent 3PT shot or stops shooting 3PT's, he can be an effective offensive player......

C'mon Josh! You know better than this! -- Yes, if Vuk improves, he will be better.

Say, I wonder what happens if you compare Bagley's 3rd year in the league to Vuk's...

Excellent question! The answer is that Bagley's numbers were not very good his 3d year. That said, they were significantly better than Vuk's 3d-year numbers.

But, the truth is none of these comparisons really matter. Despite having been the #2 pick in 2018, by now Bagley is an inexpensive role-player. If there was a real reason to imagine Vuk would develop into an outstanding player, I'd keep him over Bagley w/o question. Or keep them both. But... he's not going to do that. He's had plenty of time to show that kind or potential, but we've seen nothing of the kind. No reason not to cut his cable.

[joshuacf]

Excellent question! The answer is that Bagley's numbers were not very good his 3d year. That said, they were significantly better than Vuk's 3d-year numbers.

They weren't, Vuk had more points, steals, assists, and (way more) blocks PER36.

Vuk had a way better FT%, better 2P%, slightly better TS%. Bagley was better at was the 3 ball (which fell off a cliff for him the season after), and rebounding.

Despite having been the #2 pick in 2018, by now Bagley is an inexpensive role-player. If there was a real reason to imagine Vuk would develop into an outstanding player, I'd keep him over Bagley w/o question. Or keep them both. But... he's not going to do that. He's had plenty of time to show that kind or potential, but we've seen nothing of the kind. No reason not to cut his cable.

Bagley is not going to sign for a league minimum next season, if that is what you mean by an "inexpensive role player".

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The bottom line is that we are finally starting to see the ramifications of the new hard cap era. In the next year or two, teams like OKC and Denver will be just giving away good players in order to save hundreds of millions of dollars in luxury taxes. NY is also going to have to let Mitchell Robinson walk. Philly will let Quentin Grimes walk. In Summer 2027, Orlando will probably have to let Anthony Black walk.

We are going to want to stay financially flexible to take advantage of these situations. (Which is a big reason why I'd be against extending Trae Young this summer. Just pay him his $49M for next year and keep our options open in Summer 2027.)

We should steal Sorber while he is injured if possible.

[payitforward]

Hey Josh -- I'm not sure what the point of all this is, but I shouid make clear that I'm not looking for any kind of argument.

Moreover, if I could make one of these guys better than the other by waving a magic wand, it'd be Vuk I'd do the work on!

In the meantime, here is a comparison of these guys in their respective 3d years:
https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=vukcetr01&p1yrfrom=2026&p1yrto=2026&player_id2=baglema01&p2yrfrom=2021&p2yrto=2021

It's the per-36 minute numbers we want to look at, obviously.

Even tho their TS%s are essentially the same, Bagley shot a higher %, while Vuk got to the line more often, which explains his having scored 2 more points. Vuk also posted 1.7 more assists than Bags. That's where it stops.

For the rest -- & overall! -- Bagley was a great deal superior to Vukcevic in their respective 3d years. Let me provide the evidence.

For starters, Bags pulled down 37% more rebounds than Vuk. Plus, it's worth noting that an offensive rebound can be thought of as eliminating a missed FGA, & Bags grabbed almost twice as many of those as Vuk did.

Vukcevic committed @ 22% more fouls than Bagley. The two guys were about equal in steals, but Vukcevic turned the ball over 70% more often than Bagley did.

Thus, in increasing his team's number of possessions & overall offensive efficiency, Bagley was way ahead of Vukcevic.

[tontoz]

Now that the clippers are playing better I think that makes it more likely that we can trade a future pick for OKC's clippers pick.