sunskerr wrote:Rubio has had a fine year. I think it's probably the best year of his career actually. If we can upgrade from him it would have to be based on a production/dollars ratio. Basically if Rubio's potential replacement would be better than him in terms of production divided by salary then you can look to move on. If not, then there's no real point. I happen to think Fred Van Vleet is a slightly better player than Rubio (bigger threat from downtown, and a very good defender this year) but I think FVV would be significantly more expensive than Rubio's deal and FVV isn't an all star player, so it's hard to see us upgrading in that fashion.
I think it's painfully obvious though that we need another efficient shot creator next to Devin Booker. I think people single out Rubio (and fair enough they do) because he plays at PG which is the position nowadays where a lot of teams have a scoring threat and the ball spends a lot of time in his hands. So naturally if you have the ball in your hands a lot it makes sense you should be a scoring threat. But maybe we could get one at the forward position. That would be kind of tough but looking around the league couple of successful teams have something like that going on.
Clippers: PG & Kawhi are the primary options, Pat Bev plays defense
Thunder: CP3 is a pass first PG, and has ceded scoring duties more to SGA and Gallinari
New Orleans: Lonzo is pass first, with Jrue and Brandon Ingram doing most of the scoring. Zion doesn't create his own shot.
Lakers: well, ok LeBron is their PG so I might be stretching this, but they have smaller guys to defend opposing PGs
Indiana: Brogdon is the facilitator, Oladipo is the primary option, and TJ Warren is another scoring option they have
It appears that it actually isn't the end of the world to have your facilitator not being the primary scoring threat. This holds so long as you have scoring threats elsewhere on the roster. Right now we only really have Devin Booker. Kelly might be able to take that next step hopefully. But it also doesn't hurt to look for options in free agency or in a trade.
As a side note after thinking about this more, I used to think it was Rubio's lack of scoring that was the issue with him as a player. But I sort of realized after writing this that his main problem is 3 point shooting volume. Facilitating, pass first point guards aren't necessarily out of date- they just need to be able to knock down more 3s to keep the defense honest and stretched out. If we're looking at the above teams, Brogdon is a pass first guy but he can shoot more 3s than Rubio, and so can CP3. Heck even Pat Bev as a defense-only player manages to shoot 1.6 per game on 38%. I don't think anybody here wants to really touch Lonzo with a 10 foot pole anymore besides his most ardent supporters but even he gets 2.5 per game somehow with his broken form. But that little thing (3 point volume) can translate into such a large difference when it comes to how the offense functions.
Since we're on the topic of 3FGAs, this has been a HUGE problem with Devin. He has increasingly modeled his game after Kobe, operating from the post and mid-range with the ball in his hands. And if you discount the turnovers, it's hard to knock: he is one of - if not the - best scorers in the game operating inside the arc. But I have two major problems with it:
First, it's old school, built for the pre-D'Antoni days of yore. For that style to work, you essentially need one of the league's best defenses. So perhaps it's no surprise that the two players who played this way and won - Jordan and Kobe - were the best defenders at their positions in the league. Contrast with Devin, who is, let's just say, not.
Second, it's just frustrating to watch. Booker works and works, and gets a good shot and shoots a high percentage. Then the other team runs back down and all-too-often, just bombs the first open three they see and, overall, that tends to be more effective. It feels like we're running in mud in comparison.
Dude's supposed to be one of the best shooters in the game, yet he's shooting only 36% from 3. Which wouldn't be bad if he were shooting at volume, but he's not. He's shooting 5.6 threes per game, which might sound like a lot until you compare it leaguewide: that's
#59 in the league. Dudes come off the bench and shoot more threes at higher percentages - dudes like Goran Dragic, Landry Shamet, Patty Mills and Ben McLemore. And you can say it's because the rest of the team isn't setting him up or whatever, but I've watched him pass up open threes time after time. The other young star perimeter threats are all shooting more threes at higher percentages - Young, Doncic, Ingram, Tatum, Mitchell, Hield.... Russell, LaVine, Bogdanovic, freaking Lonzo!
So as talented as Booker is, and as likable and faithful as he is, I can't help but conclude that we'd probably win more games with a 3&D 2-guard like Dillon Brooks (5.5 3FGA/game at 36.9% in 8 fewer MPG!).
... You mention Kelly Oubre not stepping up as a primary scoring option, but from what I've seen, he's been pretty fabulous in that regard. He doesn't pass, but as an iso scorer, finisher and spot-up shooter, I think he's done great, scoring an efficient 20 PPG without turning the ball over. And for reference, 35.2% from 3 with 5.5 attempts in 4 fewer MPG than Booker. I know the advanced stats don't love him, but he doesn't hurt my eyes nearly as much as Point Book.
IMO, we will underachieve for the duration of Booker's time here. As long as we think he's a superstar, and he thinks he's a superstar, the team will suffer for it. If we were to get his minutes down to 30-32 from 38, force him to give us 100% on defense and take 100% of his open threes, and treat Point Book as a change-up that we deploy situationally rather than reflexively every game, then yeah, it could work. I just haven't seen any indication that we'll head that direction. Maybe what's needed is Ayton taking over to force the change. I'm ever-hopeful.
