Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread

[Rafael122]

Just curious on the vaunted 2014 FA class. Who is a target? Seems like the only UFA's are super old FA's like Kobe, Pierce, Granger, Dirk, Gasol, and Bogut. If this was 2004 I could see the excitement. Beyond that there are RFA's like Favors, Sanders, Cousins, Monroe, George, who would be interesting, however, the only way to acquire any of them would be to offer the max and cross your fingers they don't get matched (Unlikely). I guess we can throw Bosh / James in the mix, but neither seems even remotely likely, well Bosh, but maybe just a little. I don't consider Wade a potential FA at this point. Simmons podcast with Zach Lowe basically convinced me Wade won't opt out. He's not going to get $44M on the open market the way he's playing.

Help me see who the Wiz will spend their max cap space on. I've been told to get excited for the future cap space, but it seems like the only true target is the mysterious BYOD. Not only that, but it seems like there will be a smorgasbord of teams that have mega cap space in 2014. It's not like Washington will be able to rake a team over the coals because there will be so much bloody competition.

Basically Washington's only hope of landing a second star in 2014 appears:
1) Miami imploding making Bosh exercise his ETO
2) Wall/Beal become stars making Washington look like a team on the rise
3) Bosh magically picking Washington, amongst many other suiters
4) Hoping that Bosh actually reverts back to all-star form (not totally unlikely)

Will someone correct my thinking if I'm not seeing something?

Assuming they select Porter, you'd arguably have 3 positions locked up for the foreseeable future. I'd make a run at Granger, I don't think he's ever going to make it back to where he was, but he wouldn't be a bad option off the bench. Depends on how his knees check out.

PF - Greg Monroe, Larry Sanders

C - Anderson Varejao, Demarcus Cousins, Chris Bosh

It's also a good year to improve the bench, which isn't very good. Go after Tier 2/3 free agents and build the second unit.

Teams that are gonna have cap space:
Atlanta (depending on what they do this year)
Boston might have around $10 mil in cap room, maybe slightly less, but not enough to go after a max guy. Cleveland (depending on what they do this year)
Dallas (again, depending on what they do this season, and if Dirk gets an extension...they have about $3 mil on the books next offseason)
Indiana (but you figure Paul George is going to get paid)
Lakers (again though, if they re-sign Kobe and Dwight, that doesn't leave them much room)
Memphis ($8 mil)
Milwaukee
Minnesota
New Orleans
Orlando
Philly (especially if they don't bring Bynum back)
Phoenix
Portland
Sacramento
San Antonio

It's wishful thing and all this may be for naught but it's fun to talk about b/c its been about 5 years since the last time we had any significant cap room.

You think about Indiana, LA, Dallas and Atlanta, either these teams are going to go for a mega signing this year or in Indiana and the Lakers' case, extending Kobe, Dwight, maybe Pau or extending Paul George and Lance Stephenson.

Then there's teams rebuilding: Phoenix, Sacramento, Orlando, Philly

It's going to be interesting, not trying to be a homer, but I think we can be a top 5 destination next offseason especially if we make that leap.

[LyricalRico]

It's going to be interesting, not trying to be a homer, but I think we can be a top 5 destination next offseason especially if we make that leap.

I could see that. And Bosh would be a nice upgrade at PF if Miami implodes and LeBron bolts. We could even trade Nene for him in a S&T and maintain some flexibility to do other things.

[rockymac52]

If LeBron really wants to be considered the greatest player of all-time, I think it's pretty clear what he has to do. He has to do something that Michael Jordan never could do... bring a championship back to DC!!!

Just kidding. But not really. It'd be nice to have the best player in the game on our team

[closg00]

Wrong thread

[rockymac52]

Bumping this up, according to Larry Coon on Twitter, the projected salary cap for the 2014-15 season is $62.1 million with the luxury tax set at $75.7 million.

Assuming Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, and Singleton are dropped. Ariza, Okafor and Webster are not resigned or extended, that leaves us with a project cap of $35 million (Wall's extension, Beal, Nene, and Porter).

You probably can't go by projections a year in advance, but that's a lot of money to spend in a big free agency year.

Yup. $27M in cap room. It'll probably be more like $23M because we will retain Webster. We might have room to sign a max free agent AND retain Okafor for an extra 2 years on a $9M a year contract.

Ultimately, the additional cap room is probably bad news for us. At lot of teams that were in the luxtax zone are now breathing a sigh of relief. More money will be floating around to bid up free agents.

Don't get me wrong, I love Okafor, but I don't think he's going to command a starting salary much higher than the MLE, if at all. I think Okafor a year from now is probably worth about $8-9 million per year, in terms of his value/production. However, I'm not convinced that any other team is going to offer Okafor that much money.

I think Okafor is about the 20th best center in the league right now. Yes, big men are coveted and often are paid very high salaries because of how rare the truly great big men are. But that's not always the case for 32 year old centers who have basically been role players for their entire careers.

Basically, let's say there's these 10-15 teams that have enough cap space to offer Okafor upwards of $8 million per season. Sure, some of those teams might "strike out" on the star free agents, and might be tempted to throw their cap space at the next best thing, even if it's slightly overpaying that player, but I don't even think Okafor is in the next best thing category. What team that's under the cap is going to say "we really love Emeka Okafor, even at 32 years old, and we want to pay him $8 million per year for 2 years to sign with our team"? No rebuilding team would be interested in signing him for that much, because why would they? (other than if they're below the minimum salary floor and need to add on salary, but that's rare). Okafor would be a quality addition to a contender, whether it's as a backup or starter. He's a very solid player who knows his role and is efficient on both sides of the ball, and perhaps more importantly, he shouldn't cost you that much. Okafor would be a real solid pickup for the MLE for any team. But how many contenders really have that much cap room and aren't able to find a better player to sign with it? And if there are some teams that might be interested in signing a player like Okafor for $8 million a year, there's a decent chance they already have their starting big men and/or bench bigs, and Okafor might not be a fit for their team.

I think Okafor will sign a 2-3 year deal for $5-7 million TOPS.

[mohammed10]

^^^

Fair enough. I was just mentioning this year's cap because many were thinking that it was going to be a lot higher than what it appears to be. We just might have to temper our enthusiasm on the '14-15 cap space a bit.

It's good for the Wiz that this season's cap is low. You're probably right about tempering enthusiasm for 14-15 if Wiz management stays their course and doesn't plan well.

Ruz -

Well, if Emperor Ernie is still in charge, we Wiz fans are in trouble...

[hands11]

Just curious on the vaunted 2014 FA class. Who is a target? Seems like the only UFA's are super old FA's like Kobe, Pierce, Granger, Dirk, Gasol, and Bogut. If this was 2004 I could see the excitement. Beyond that there are RFA's like Favors, Sanders, Cousins, Monroe, George, who would be interesting, however, the only way to acquire any of them would be to offer the max and cross your fingers they don't get matched (Unlikely). I guess we can throw Bosh / James in the mix, but neither seems even remotely likely, well Bosh, but maybe just a little. I don't consider Wade a potential FA at this point. Simmons podcast with Zach Lowe basically convinced me Wade won't opt out. He's not going to get $44M on the open market the way he's playing.

Help me see who the Wiz will spend their max cap space on. I've been told to get excited for the future cap space, but it seems like the only true target is the mysterious BYOD. Not only that, but it seems like there will be a smorgasbord of teams that have mega cap space in 2014. It's not like Washington will be able to rake a team over the coals because there will be so much bloody competition.

Basically Washington's only hope of landing a second star in 2014 appears:
1) Miami imploding making Bosh exercise his ETO
2) Wall/Beal become stars making Washington look like a team on the rise
3) Bosh magically picking Washington, amongst many other suiters
4) Hoping that Bosh actually reverts back to all-star form (not totally unlikely)

Will someone correct my thinking if I'm not seeing something?

A second star ?

Dude, you are missing the movie. Finish washing your hands and get back in the theater.

They already have two stars. They just need to keep building this out. Opportunities will present themselves.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Just curious on the vaunted 2014 FA class. Who is a target? Seems like the only UFA's are super old FA's like Kobe, Pierce, Granger, Dirk, Gasol, and Bogut. If this was 2004 I could see the excitement. Beyond that there are RFA's like Favors, Sanders, Cousins, Monroe, George, who would be interesting, however, the only way to acquire any of them would be to offer the max and cross your fingers they don't get matched (Unlikely). I guess we can throw Bosh / James in the mix, but neither seems even remotely likely, well Bosh, but maybe just a little. I don't consider Wade a potential FA at this point. Simmons podcast with Zach Lowe basically convinced me Wade won't opt out. He's not going to get $44M on the open market the way he's playing.

Help me see who the Wiz will spend their max cap space on. I've been told to get excited for the future cap space, but it seems like the only true target is the mysterious BYOD. Not only that, but it seems like there will be a smorgasbord of teams that have mega cap space in 2014. It's not like Washington will be able to rake a team over the coals because there will be so much bloody competition.

Basically Washington's only hope of landing a second star in 2014 appears:
1) Miami imploding making Bosh exercise his ETO
2) Wall/Beal become stars making Washington look like a team on the rise
3) Bosh magically picking Washington, amongst many other suiters
4) Hoping that Bosh actually reverts back to all-star form (not totally unlikely)

Will someone correct my thinking if I'm not seeing something?

Exactly, this plan is utterly undone at the "feeling randy" stage by an overhyped, patchworn assembly of unattainables and disappointments to be.

Here’s the list:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/85896 ... -2013-2014

The restricted free agents are almost not worth discussing. Can anyone help me remember the last time a premier restricted free agent that a team wanted to retain actually ended up somewhere else? I’m sure it’s happened, but even guys like Eric Gordon with a crap relationship with the incumbent team and a contract offer that was outsized ended up staying (and probably getting traded). George, Monroe, Cousins, Favors & Sanders? We can drool, but would be fools to think our offer won't get matched. I doubt even Hayward is going anywhere.

I see a few old guys who would be interesting on two-year deals: Gasol, Granger, Kirilenko, Matrix and Paul Pierce for starters. These are hardly foundation pieces and some of these guys are a lot less attractive if we bring in Porter as well.

It is safe to say that Nowitzki, Duncan and LeBron are not coming here.

Melo and Wade opting out of $20 million dollar deals and wanting the same over four years is not something I want any part of as I believe they’ll be bad contracts by year 2 at the latest.

Bosh is of some interest as he’d be a perfect fit, but him breaking down while gorging upon 30+% of our cap is......concerning. I’m thinking about it, but probably back away. He’s the one guy who at least glitters a bit.

Deng is OK, but a bad fit offensively and probably another guy who breaks down over his next contract. Poor fit with Porter again too as we really need to put our remaining long term resources into the interior.

This isn't even bringing in the point that there will be lots of competition for these guys with Bron having an opt out. That alone will have the crows clearing cap and rubbing steak knives on the whetstone.

The more reasonable targets are not folks of a stature to where we should be crafting an intricate strategy around. Spencer Hawesome? OK, sure – decent, young and hopefully cheapish. Thabo Sefalosha? Yes, but I don’t know how much more money we want to throw at the perimeter if we retain Webster and draft Porter. Bogut? Interesting, but I’d rather keep Okafor given health. Jordan Hill? Darrel Arthur? Joel Anthony (I’m reaching)? Sure, there’s some guys at the margins who are OK, but the neon lights aren’t about to blowout from the power surge here and we don’t need max space for these guys anyway.

We might be able to throw a front loaded contract at Ed Davis as the Griz are uncomfortably deployed financially. Pattrick Patterson could be a fit. Those are probably my two favorites, but they aren't moves that blow away what we could probably get done in the trade market.

Overall, the omens augur of inauspicious acquisitions affixed to outsized capital allocations. The best thing that comes of the whole thing is likely to be Ted renting a limo and giving Loul Deng a tour of the historic cup cake bakeries of Georgetown.

*commences to play Taps with armpit farting noises*

[go'stags]

I think you are forgetting the most important part of cap space, which is for trades. We don't know who will exactly be available. It might be Kevin Love, disgruntled semi-star X, or it even a souped up-version of the Okariza trade. Maybe we can even tack on a BOYD on to one of those. But I'm not enthused on using up all of our cap space, and our best future opportunity (ie not the #3) going forward to make a leap, before we let more things play themselves out. I think we should let things happen as they may in the next 2 years or so, try to hit big or even somewhat big with a great fit, and then if that fails go after a Paul Milsap or Carl Landry if we fail to do that. Using our future cap space now for a guy like Milsap or Landry seems like a "makeup-on-the-pig" version of the Okariza trade.

[Dat2U]

A second star ?

Dude, you are missing the movie. Finish washing your hands and get back in the theater.

They already have two stars. They just need to keep building this out. Opportunities will present themselves.

There's no clear 2nd star as of yet, only the hope of one. Beal wasn't a star last year, he had some real good moments and certainly there's reason for optimism but let's not jump the gun just yet.

[Ruzious]

I think you are forgetting the most important part of cap space, which is for trades. We don't know who will exactly be available. It might be Kevin Love, disgruntled semi-star X, or it even a souped up-version of the Okariza trade. Maybe we can even tack on a BOYD on to one of those. But I'm not enthused on using up all of our cap space, and our best future opportunity (ie not the #3) going forward to make a leap, before we let more things play themselves out. I think we should let things happen as they may in the next 2 years or so, try to hit big or even somewhat big with a great fit, and then if that fails go after a Paul Milsap or Carl Landry if we fail to do that. Using our future cap space now for a guy like Milsap or Landry seems like a "makeup-on-the-pig" version of the Okariza trade.

People always forget about the trade options that cap room adds. And opportunities do tend to come up that previously seemed very unlikely - such as when teams get desperate to avoid the lux tax.

[Dat2U]

Random thoughts on free agency...

The notion of re-signing a 31 yr old Okafor next year is a bit ridiculous to me. Offensively, he's continued his steady decline (49.6 TS% & ORTG of 100 both the lowest since his injury plagued 05-06 season). while maintaining a solid level of play defensively but I think he's clearly the most overrated Wizard on this message board. I could name 25 to 30 guys that play C, that bring more to the table than Okafor at this stage of his career. Were talking about one of the weaker starting C's in the league on the downhill of his career and folks suddenly want to make him a Wizard for life. I simply don't get it. I think we get far too attached to marginal and average NBA players that wear the home team uniform.

If we draft Otto Porter, Martell Webster will be playing elsewhere next year UNLESS we trade Trevor Ariza. Webster IS NOT resigning to be a part of a three headed monster at SF. Everyone would recognize the writing on the wall, there's not enough minutes to go around for 3 good SFs and it simply would be smarter to allocate resources elsewhere considering our needs.

Regarding 2014, knowing the front office, you seriously have to consider whether they'd even go the route of free agency. They've shown no stomach for the risk that comes with it. Ted & especially Ernie appear to like the comfort and security of trading for a percieved asset on a long term deal (typically someone that they've had their eye on for years that's locked into an expensive contract) as opposed to diving in free agent waters. I suspect there's a better chance we take on long term salary at some point over the next year and forgo free agency all together. We might as well start figuring out the potential trade prospects now.

[Floater]

Webster thinks he's a SG. Maybe he wants to be more of a backup SG next season than a SF.

[Dat2U]

Webster thinks he's a SG. Maybe he wants to be more of a backup SG next season than a SF.

Maybe "he wants to be a backup"? Yeah, I doubt it.

[Floater]

Webster thinks he's a SG. Maybe he wants to be more of a backup SG next season than a SF.

Maybe "he wants to be a backup"? Yeah, I doubt it.

Players with realistic expectations, like the notion of being a backup to prolong his career, are often the ones who in fact, have longer and more effective careers.

[Dat2U]

Webster thinks he's a SG. Maybe he wants to be more of a backup SG next season than a SF.

Maybe "he wants to be a backup"? Yeah, I doubt it.

Players with realistic expectations, like the notion of being a backup to prolong his career, are often the ones who in fact, have longer and more effective careers.

You tell that to a guy that's coming off a career year with potentially a one-time chance at getting a decent pay day.

What about fans with realistic expectations? I think it's completely unrealistic to expect Webster to be happy with a backup SG slot getting 12 minutes a game behind Bradley Beal with Ariza & Porter taking the bulk of the SF minutes.

[Floater]

They'd still find a way to get him about 25 MPG. He'd been getting that all of his career. He might only get 12 at SG but he'll still get minutes at SF.

[Deeptu McPullup]

I think you are forgetting the most important part of cap space, which is for trades. We don't know who will exactly be available. It might be Kevin Love, disgruntled semi-star X, or it even a souped up-version of the Okariza trade. Maybe we can even tack on a BOYD on to one of those. But I'm not enthused on using up all of our cap space, and our best future opportunity (ie not the #3) going forward to make a leap, before we let more things play themselves out. I think we should let things happen as they may in the next 2 years or so, try to hit big or even somewhat big with a great fit, and then if that fails go after a Paul Milsap or Carl Landry if we fail to do that. Using our future cap space now for a guy like Milsap or Landry seems like a "makeup-on-the-pig" version of the Okariza trade.

I have a few problems with this.

A) Cap space for trades is not something where you get greater and greater returns the more of it you have. A little bit goes a long way there and it's not like having an actual power forward with a pulse on the roster is going to alter this to a particularly large degree other than negating a max slot which is free agent-centric. We could still easily work it to where we bring in somebody and have $8-10 million free next summer. It's not either or.

B) There are perennially so many teams that have cap space these days that it's degraded as an asset. The shorter contracts we're seeing handed out mean quicker roster turnover and large amounts of space available with maybe 12 or more teams having a at least max slots this summer. Most of the recent superstar trades have not involved cap space.

C) BOYDs are almost never performed by teams that are actually trying to win, instead being developmental moves taken during the earlier rebuild stage. Your cap space opportunities will eventually expire, so the last legs of that window need to come through. Trying to roll cap space over year after year will take a toll on your ability to compete by compromising personnel decisions.

D) The narrative here is purely acquisitive when it comes to players and there is no consideration at all for creating a salary structure which would allow us to actually keep said players on into Wall and Beal's second contracts. I believe this to be a total blind spot. Right now, we're probably looking at a third core player on the perimeter who will ultimately be well compensated, so we aren't going to have any positions on the floor where we can really expect to be cut a break from a salary perspective given the cost of bigs. So, unless Ted is willing to live deep, deep in the tax each year or something drastic happens and we trade a core guy, the talk of bringing in a Max big is quite probably fanciful. There is therefore what I believe to be a mistaken dismissal of respectable rotation players on reasonable contracts in favor of more pie in the sky types that are economically unsustainable under the current CBA.

E) There's a fair number of 'dinosaur hunters' here in that people are expecting that the bar for contention is that you'd need to be able to comfortably beat the 2009 Lakers in five games. Well, that teams' a dinosaur. The current CBA makes the recreation of the 2009 Lakers highly unlikely and it doesn't look like you need to be able to beat them to be a contender. You're going to have a conniption trying to put together a team like that in the current era. The only teams that can even try are big markets and the current outlook for most all of them is very poor outside of Houston and Chicago (and they're hardly triple superstar teams anyway). You're in the final running if you can beat the Grizzlies or the Pacers. Look at the Pacers - is there any talk amongst their more informed fans as to who they're going to add? It's all about how they can keep their guys.

It seems to me that the strong aversion to taking reasonable but non-spectacular steps to improve the team in the belief that, if we just wait, spectacular steps are likely to open up to us. Basically, any move that's above par is met with disgust. "No, lets not create the best Washington squad since 1979, that's not nearly good enough."

There's a lot of talk about opportunity cost when we actually do something, but no recognition that there's an opportunity cost to doing nothing as well.

[nate33]

Random thoughts on free agency...

The notion of re-signing a 31 yr old Okafor next year is a bit ridiculous to me. Offensively, he's continued his steady decline (49.6 TS% & ORTG of 100 both the lowest since his injury plagued 05-06 season). while maintaining a solid level of play defensively but I think he's clearly the most overrated Wizard on this message board. I could name 25 to 30 guys that play C, that bring more to the table than Okafor at this stage of his career. Were talking about one of the weaker starting C's in the league on the downhill of his career and folks suddenly want to make him a Wizard for life. I simply don't get it. I think we get far too attached to marginal and average NBA players that wear the home team uniform.

I couldn't disagree more strongly. This team had the 5th best defense in the league this year. It wasn't because of Wall, who missed most of the season (they were 5th best before Wall too). It wasn't because of Beal who was a rookie. It wasn't because of Webster who is merely an average defender. It wasn't because of Nene who missed a bunch of games and played hurt for a bunch more. It wasn't Seraphin. It wasn't Booker.

We were the 5th best defense in the league because of Okafor and Ariza - mostly because of Okafor (who played 600 more minutes than Ariza). You can't name 25 guys who could have led this team to be the 5th best defense in the league. It's not possible. I'm not sure you can name 15 centers better than Okafor. Here's what I can come up with:

Noah
Howard
Hibbert
M.Gasol
Horford
Chandler
Favors
B.Lopez
Sanders
Vucevic
Cousins
Monroe (in 2 years, surely)

If you want to throw in P.Gasol, T.Duncan and K.Garnett as PF's who play center, I'll give them to you, though 2 of them might retire before Okafor's next contract. That's about it. And I'm being generous with Vucevic and Cousins because I question their defensive impact.

I don't have a problem with signing Okafor to a 2-year deal when his contract is up. I'd surely look around for bigger impact free agents first, but I'd live with Okafor as a stopgap.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Random thoughts on free agency...

The notion of re-signing a 31 yr old Okafor next year is a bit ridiculous to me. Offensively, he's continued his steady decline (49.6 TS% & ORTG of 100 both the lowest since his injury plagued 05-06 season). while maintaining a solid level of play defensively but I think he's clearly the most overrated Wizard on this message board. I could name 25 to 30 guys that play C, that bring more to the table than Okafor at this stage of his career. Were talking about one of the weaker starting C's in the league on the downhill of his career and folks suddenly want to make him a Wizard for life. I simply don't get it. I think we get far too attached to marginal and average NBA players that wear the home team uniform.

If we draft Otto Porter, Martell Webster will be playing elsewhere next year UNLESS we trade Trevor Ariza. Webster IS NOT resigning to be a part of a three headed monster at SF. Everyone would recognize the writing on the wall, there's not enough minutes to go around for 3 good SFs and it simply would be smarter to allocate resources elsewhere considering our needs.

Yeah, I'm pretty much on board with all this.

While I like Okafor quite a bit, a younger model would be the prudent move even if we're talking about a slightly lesser player overall.

I'm surprised the Webster issue is even in contention.

I don't have a problem with signing Okafor to a 2-year deal when his contract is up. I'd surely look around for bigger impact free agents first, but I'd live with Okafor as a stopgap.

Well, if he'd agree to a two year deal, we'd have to consider it.

I definitely want him to at least finish his current contract here and am fairly averse to the notion sometimes put forward of shopping him at next year's deadline if we're on route to the playoffs ("Duh" trade that we have to do, notwithstanding).

Regarding 2014, knowing the front office, you seriously have to consider whether they'd even go the route of free agency. They've shown no stomach for the risk that comes with it. Ted & especially Ernie appear to like the comfort and security of trading for a percieved asset on a long term deal (typically someone that they've had their eye on for years that's locked into an expensive contract) as opposed to diving in free agent waters. I suspect there's a better chance we take on long term salary at some point over the next year and forgo free agency all together. We might as well start figuring out the potential trade prospects now.

This is probably true, though Ted and Wittman did both mention the words free agency in the last month or so, with Wittman in particular looking a bit wild as he said it (and that was a studio release from Monumental, so it was highly scripted and not him geeking live).

Tying into what I was saying in that post above, I do believe that us taking Porter (or Dipo) is a concession that we're probably looking at making do with being "good enough" at the 4 and 5 positions if we plan to keep all three long term (and I'm about sure we do). That is, unless Ted is willing to live well above the tax line. While I believe that Ted will probably dip into the tax as the need arises, it's a bit much to expect that he's going to allow salary & tax payments to balloon up to, say, $90 million a year or so.

Once we start talking about multiple wing players with 7.5% compound adjusted growth rate contracts building up off of what are big numbers to start with, things get rather wooly (especially with the salary cap being stuck at $58 million since the GFC). Given that, I don't know that Ernie is going to be allowed to continue bringing in bigs paid Nene money once the rookie deals start expiring.

That sounds fairly bad, but most all of our competition is hamstrung just as badly and those that aren't tend to make Billy King blunders.