RealGM Top 100 List #16

[SactoKingsFan]

There were always players like Elton Brand, Chris Webber, and even Chris Bosh, who had incredible peaks, that were better than Dirk at certain points in their career. Then there was Duncan and Garnett, both with incredible longevity and consistency (until lately), dominating most of the decade as not only the top power forwards in the league, but the best players as well. What I'm wondering is when has Dirk clearly been the best power forward in the league, like Duncan in 02-03 or Garnett in 03-04, where they also had postseason success.

Brand, Webber, Bosh and Amar'e were never as good as peak Dirk. He has a case for best PF and arguably the best player in the league in 06 and 07 (also 2011 after playoffs). Dirk was also in the best PF conversation in 08, 09, 10 and 11.

[RoyalInstinct]

There were always players like Elton Brand, Chris Webber, and even Chris Bosh, who had incredible peaks, that were better than Dirk at certain points in their career. Then there was Duncan and Garnett, both with incredible longevity and consistency (until lately), dominating most of the decade as not only the top power forwards in the league, but the best players as well. What I'm wondering is when has Dirk clearly been the best power forward in the league, like Duncan in 02-03 or Garnett in 03-04, where they also had postseason success.

Brand, Webber, Bosh and Amar'e were never as good as peak Dirk. He has a case for best PF and arguably the best player in the league in 06 and 07 (also 2011 after playoffs). Dirk was also in the best PF conversation in 08, 09, 10 and 11.

Based on one-year peaks-


Elton Brand:

05-06 - Regular Season - 24.7/10.0/2.6/1.0/2.5 on 52.7 FG%/58.0 TS%/26.5 PER
2006 - Playoffs - 25.4/10.3/4.0/.9/2.6 on 55.1 FG%/59 TS%/26.4 PER

Chris Bosh:

09-10 - Regular Season - 24.0/10.8/2.4/0.6/1.0 on 51.8 FG%/59.2 TS%/25.0 PER
2008 - Playoffs - 24.0/9.0/3.6/1.6/0.4 on 47.2 FG%/55.8 TS%/23.0 PER

Amare Stoudemire:

07-08 - Regular Season - 25.2/9.1/1.5/0.8/2.1 on 59 FG%/65.6 TS%/27.6 PER
2005 - Playoffs - 29.9/10.7/1.2/0.7/2.0 on 53.9 FG%/61.6 TS%/27.6 PER

Chris Webber:

00-01 - Regular Season - 27.1/11.1/4.2/1.3/1.7 on 48.1 FG%/51.6 TS%/24.7 PER
2002 - Playoffs - 23.7/10.8/4.7/0.9/1.6 on 50.2 FG%/52.3 TS%/22.1 PER

Dirk Nowitzki:

06-07 - Regular Season - 24.6/8.9/3.4/0.7/0.8 on 50.2 FG%/60.5 TS%/27.6 PER
2011 - Playoffs - 27.7/8.1/2.5/0.6/0.6 on 48.5 FG%/60.9 TS%/25.2 PER


Is there anything that separates Dirk peak-wise from these players? Let's add Duncan and Garnett.

Tim Duncan:

01-02 - Regular Season - 25.5/12.7/3.7/0.7/2.5 on 50.8 FG%/57.6 TS%/27.0 PER
2003 - Playoffs - 24.7/15.4/5.3/0.6/3.3 on 52.9 FG%/57.7 TS%/28.4 PER

Kevin Garnett:

03-04 - Regular Season - 24.2/13.9/5.0/1.5/2.2 on 49.9 FG%/56.7 TS%/28.2 PER
2003 - Playoffs - 27.0/15.7/5.2/1.7/1.7 on 51.4 FG%/53.9 TS%/25.0 PER

As you can clearly see, Duncan and Garnett's peaks show that they not only have a clear advantage in rebounding, but a clear advantage on defense. Nothing separates the peaks of Dirk from, say, Elton Brand, except a little better efficiency and less rebounds, defense, and assists. I just don't see personally how Dirk's peak separates itself from those players like Garnett and Duncan's. Obviously, Dirk is easily a better player than any of the second-tier power forwards because he has longevity but his peak isn't honestly that impressive.

[ShaqAttack3234]

It came down to Barkley and Moses Malone for me, and I'll go with Barkley simply because while I'd say Moses was better defensively, they're both primarily offensive players and Barkley was clearly superior there. Barkley gives you a lot of the offensive rebounding and power game inside, but unlike Moses, he's also a very good passer making him a superior option to run your offense through and better at getting his own shot.

Chuck led(or carried) the Sixers to top 2-3 offenses in '89 and '90 and while he had more talent in Phoenix, he wound up leading the '93 Suns to the best offense in the league and that was with KJ missing 33 games and Richard Dumas missing 34. Plus, those '93 Suns were 61-15 when Chuck played.

Unlike Malone, who never displayed Barkley's type of offensive dominance, Chuck's game didn't have problems translating to the playoffs because he was not unusually dependent for his high level of play on anyone or anything other than himself. Chuck had plenty of performances from '90-'93 where he dominated as much as anyone in the postseason. Unfortunately, most of Chuck's prime from '88 to '89 until '93 was wasted on teams that were at best, teams with the ceiling to be pretenders, and at worst, bad teams, until that final prime year when he finally had a legitimate championship-caliber cast and gave the Bulls a good scare despite MJ averaging 41 ppg in the series.

[ThaRegul8r]

It came down to Barkley and Moses Malone for me, and I'll go with Barkley simply because while I'd say Moses was better defensively, they're both primarily offensive players and Barkley was clearly superior there. Barkley gives you a lot of the offensive rebounding and power game inside, but unlike Moses, he's also a very good passer making him a superior option to run your offense through and better at getting his own shot.

Barkley has the fifth-most offensive rebounds since the NBA began recording the statistic, with 4,260. Only Moses Malone (6,731), Robert Parish (4,598), Buck Williams (4,526), and Dennis Rodman (4,329) grabbed more. Of those four men, only Malone (5.06) and Rodman (4.75) averaged more offensive rebounds a game than Barkley (3.97). Williams averaged 3.46, and Parish 2.85. Barkley led the league in offensive rebound percentage in 1986-87 (16.7), ranked second in 1988-89 (14.5), and led the league in offensive rebounds for three consecutive seasons from 1986-87 (390), ’87-88 (385) and ’88-89 (403), finishing second in 1985-86 (354) and ’89-90 (361). Only Moses Malone (6, from 1977-78 to 1982-83) and Dennis Rodman (4, from 1990-91 to 1993-94) led the league in offensive rebounds for more consecutive seasons than Barkley. Bill Simmons wrote: “Moses was the best offensive rebounder of my lifetime; Barkley was second. From ’87 through ’90, Chuck averaged nearly five offensive rebounds a game. He grabbed 510 offensive rebounds in 123 playoff games. He holds the NBA record for most offensive rebounds in a half (13) and quarter (11). Did I mention that the guy was six-foot-four-and-a-half? When will we ever see anything like that again?” (The Book of Basketball, p. 506).

“He’s […] the game’s best offensive rebounder, and his varied arsenal includes coast-to-coast layups and three-pointers and everything in between” (Richmond Times-Dispatch, Apr. 25, 1990). “He has been called the greatest last-second offensive rebounder in NBA history because of his nose for the ball. If you need someone to get one crucial offensive rebound, Barkley is your man” (Sam Smith, Chicago Tribune, Jun. 7, 1993).

[Jaivl]

I just don't see personally how Dirk's peak separates itself from those players like Garnett and Duncan's.

In one word: spacing.

[90sAllDecade]

I like Dirk a lot as he is great playing against HOF peers and improves under pressure. If someone has full or long running game film of any of that 2002 series vs Garnett please post it. I would really enjoy watching that as I'm sure other posters as well.

If were going to bring Dirk in the mix, we have to bring out Barkley as well. Here's a game I'm currently watching of Philadelphia Barkley vs Jordan. This looks like a great game so far and in it we see 1990 Jordan go off for 49 points 5 rebs 5 ast 4 stls and Barkley dominate with 34 pts 20 rebs 8 ast, both had over .620 TS%. We also see a guy coming up later in a young "Scott" Pippen as the commentator calls him.

Seems like a great game and worth your time. (click the link below the video for an auto playlist)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4z_jaFgSKDI&list=PLA858ABEB31B4F57E[/youtube]
Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4z_jaFgS ... EB31B4F57E

Box score:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10PHI.html

[SactoKingsFan]

Spoiler:

There were always players like Elton Brand, Chris Webber, and even Chris Bosh, who had incredible peaks, that were better than Dirk at certain points in their career. Then there was Duncan and Garnett, both with incredible longevity and consistency (until lately), dominating most of the decade as not only the top power forwards in the league, but the best players as well. What I'm wondering is when has Dirk clearly been the best power forward in the league, like Duncan in 02-03 or Garnett in 03-04, where they also had postseason success.

Brand, Webber, Bosh and Amar'e were never as good as peak Dirk. He has a case for best PF and arguably the best player in the league in 06 and 07 (also 2011 after playoffs). Dirk was also in the best PF conversation in 08, 09, 10 and 11.

Based on one-year peaks-


Elton Brand:

05-06 - Regular Season - 24.7/10.0/2.6/1.0/2.5 on 52.7 FG%/58.0 TS%/26.5 PER
2006 - Playoffs - 25.4/10.3/4.0/.9/2.6 on 55.1 FG%/59 TS%/26.4 PER

Chris Bosh:

09-10 - Regular Season - 24.0/10.8/2.4/0.6/1.0 on 51.8 FG%/59.2 TS%/25.0 PER
2008 - Playoffs - 24.0/9.0/3.6/1.6/0.4 on 47.2 FG%/55.8 TS%/23.0 PER

Amare Stoudemire:

07-08 - Regular Season - 25.2/9.1/1.5/0.8/2.1 on 59 FG%/65.6 TS%/27.6 PER
2005 - Playoffs - 29.9/10.7/1.2/0.7/2.0 on 53.9 FG%/61.6 TS%/27.6 PER

Chris Webber:

00-01 - Regular Season - 27.1/11.1/4.2/1.3/1.7 on 48.1 FG%/51.6 TS%/24.7 PER
2002 - Playoffs - 23.7/10.8/4.7/0.9/1.6 on 50.2 FG%/52.3 TS%/22.1 PER

Dirk Nowitzki:

06-07 - Regular Season - 24.6/8.9/3.4/0.7/0.8 on 50.2 FG%/60.5 TS%/27.6 PER
2011 - Playoffs - 27.7/8.1/2.5/0.6/0.6 on 48.5 FG%/60.9 TS%/25.2 PER


Is there anything that separates Dirk peak-wise from these players? Let's add Duncan and Garnett.

Tim Duncan:

01-02 - Regular Season - 25.5/12.7/3.7/0.7/2.5 on 50.8 FG%/57.6 TS%/27.0 PER
2003 - Playoffs - 24.7/15.4/5.3/0.6/3.3 on 52.9 FG%/57.7 TS%/28.4 PER

Kevin Garnett:

03-04 - Regular Season - 24.2/13.9/5.0/1.5/2.2 on 49.9 FG%/56.7 TS%/28.2 PER
2003 - Playoffs - 27.0/15.7/5.2/1.7/1.7 on 51.4 FG%/53.9 TS%/25.0 PER

As you can clearly see, Duncan and Garnett's peaks show that they not only have a clear advantage in rebounding, but a clear advantage on defense. Nothing separates the peaks of Dirk from, say, Elton Brand, except a little better efficiency and less rebounds, defense, and assists. I just don't see personally how Dirk's peak separates itself from those players like Garnett and Duncan's. Obviously, Dirk is easily a better player than any of the second-tier power forwards because he has longevity but his peak isn't honestly that impressive.

I never said Dirk peaked higher than Duncan or KG. Not sure why you even brought up their peaks and compared them to Dirk’s. The real issue is whether peak Dirk was better than the other PFs (Brand, Amar’e, Bosh, Webber) you compared him to.

The production provided by peak Dirk may look comparable to peak Brand, Amar’e, Bosh and Webber, however, advanced stats (WS, WS/48, ASPM, EI) suggest peak Dirk was clearly a more impactful player in 06 and 07.

Code: Select all

               WS          WS/48          ASPM*         EI**
06 Dirk        17.7       .275            5.5           5.4
07 Dirk        16.3       .278            5.9           5.6
08 Amar’e      14.6       .262            5.3           4.1
06 Brand       14.8       .229            5.1           4.3
01 Webber      11.0       .186            5.0           4.5
10 Bosh        9.6        .182            3.2           2.4


*ASPM = advanced statistical plus/minus
**EI = estimated impact

[Quotatious]

I'll vote for Dirk here, will probably provide more reasoning later on. For now, I'll say this - at first, he was my original pick for #13, then I've changed my mind about it and put West slightly ahead of him, but now that West is already in, Nowitzki is my guy. Like West, he also usually stepped up his game in the postseason, and is a really great offensive anchor. I mean, take a look at where his teams ranked offensively during his prime:

2001 - 4th
2002 - 1st
2003 - 1st
2004 - 1st
2005 - 4th
2006 - 1st
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 8th
2009 - 5th
2010 - 10th
2011 - 8th

Even 3rd in 2014, and that's featuring 35/36 year old Dirk.

Sure, Nash had a really big impact on those Don Nelson teams in the early 2000s, but Dirk was still clearly their first option on offense, leading shot taker and top crunch time option.

He looks pretty well in RAPM, consistently strong offensive impact, and generally an above average defender as well (nothing special in this regard, but definitely solid, and at worst a neutral defensively, never hurt his team). The reason why I'd take Dirk over Karl Malone is his much more consistent offense in the postseason, and arguably better offensive impact even in the RS (I mean, Malone played his entire career with Stockton, another all-time great offensive player, and they still had the best offense in the league just ONCE), and his argument over Charles Barkley is primarily better defense, maybe also a very slight edge as a playoff performer (but Chuck was great in this regard, too), and arguably better intangibles.
Besides, you know - Dirk led his team to a title, Malone and Barkley didn't. It's even a bigger accomplishment when you know that he led a franchise that never won before to a title.

Dirk has great longevity and a very long prime, as well.

If KG and Kobe are already in, I think Dirk definitely also should be. To be honest, I don't really see how Dirk is worse than Kobe (KG vs Dirk is an extremely close debate as well - hell, I had Nowitzki over Garnett before the project, and was pretty sure that I'd vote for him at #12, but I've just bought into the arguments made for KG), or at least if Kobe was voted at 13, 3-spot gap between him and Dirk is already IMO too big.

[ardee]

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

He should already be in. I have yet to see a convincing argument for Garnett over Dirk, and one is already in at 11, this guy barely has traction, go figure...

Anyway, he might possibly be the most unique player in NBA history. We had had stretch-fours, and then we have Dirk. He embodies Larry Bird's scoring skillset in a more athletic, 7 foot frame. Lights out shooter from anywhere on the floor, unbelievable scoring skillset, probably the best ball-handler for his size, great defensive rebounder, and eventually, unstoppable post-game as well.

People love to talk up his '08-'12 stretch when he got his post-game and became arguably one of the best Playoff players in the league (with good reason, he put up 27-9-3 on 61% TS and 120 ORtg in 46 PO games in those years), but I think '05-'07 get underrated.

In that timespan, the best teammate he had for a single season was Josh Howard in 2007, who put up 19/7 on 55% TS and was a below average defender. The other 'notable' guys he played with were Devin Harris, Jason Terry (when he was still before his prime) and Eric Dampier. Those teams won 58, 62 and 67 games. Read that sentence again. This only happened because Dirk put up 26-9-3 on 59% TS with a 27.2 PER and .267 WS/48 in those years.

He killed it +/- wise also, going 12.5, 8.2 and 13.5 on On/Off in those years.

'05-'07 Dirk is one of the most impressive team-carrying feats in history, certainly much more impressive than anything Garnett ever did.

I think he peaked in '09-'11, but '06 shouldn't go under the radar. He was arguably the best player in the league that year, and that's saying something with Kobe averaging 35 ppg in the same year. Ate the West alive to the tune of 28/12/3 on 50/40/90 splits, had a GOAT level series against the Spurs, and really should've won the title if it hadn't been for shady refereeing. If that ridiculous touch foul in game 5 hadn't been called, we'd be talking about '06 Dirk as an all-time peak by a clutch monster who sealed the title with 29/15 in game 6.

'09-'11, not much more can be said than has already been. With the post-game, he became essentially unstoppable. No one could guard him, and with his passing skills, it blew open the doors for a team offense that should've been a lot more mediocre. I won't go on about the 2011 run because enough has been said, honestly.

Overall, I think he's one of the three greatest players of his generation (with Duncan and Kobe), and should already be in.

Easiest vote I've made in the project.

[DSMok1]

I'm not a voter, but I want to interject regarding the players we have good lineup data for.

Over the past 14 years, the best overall metric for capturing average production is the 14 year Average RAPM dataset that Jeremias Englemann put together. It includes playoffs. It accounts for aging bias, etc, but includes NO box score information at all (it doesn't need to). It gives us a player's average production over the 14 year period from 2001 through last season, 2014.

In that time period, we have Dirk, Kevin Garnett, LeBron, Wade, most of Kobe, most of Duncan, and a number of other elite players.

The best over that period was Kevin Garnett, and the only one close was LeBron.

This average RAPM has very little error associated with it for players with such large sample sizes.

A comprehensive visualization of the data is located at http://public.tableausoftware.com/profi ... 14YearRAPM

The top 11 by average rating (per possession) over the past 14 years:

1. Kevin Garnett - 9.7
2. LeBron James - 9.5
3. Tim Duncan - 7.9
4. Chris Paul - 7.4
5. Dirk Nowitzki - 7.4
6. Manu Ginobili - 6.9
7. Steve Nash - 6.0
8. Paul Pierce - 5.9
9. Amir Johnson (Small Sample Size) - 5.8
10. LaMarcus Aldridge - 5.8
11. Shaquille O'Neal - 5.7

I feel that, given the quality of the stats available, we have enough information to say that Dirk Nowitzki should not get in before Kevin Garnett.

[penbeast0]

Early voting returns:

Karl Malone – ronnymac2, trex_8063

Moses – DannyNoonan1221, JordansBulls

Barkley – ShaqAttack3234

Dirk – Quotatious, ardee

[Jaivl]

I feel that, given the quality of the stats available, we have enough information to say that Dirk Nowitzki should not get in before Kevin Garnett.

Well... and he won't, lol.

[ThaRegul8r]

I feel that, given the quality of the stats available, we have enough information to say that Dirk Nowitzki should not get in before Kevin Garnett.

Well... and he won't, lol.

That was rather pointless seeing how Garnett is already in.

[ardee]

I'm not a voter, but I want to interject regarding the players we have good lineup data for.

Over the past 14 years, the best overall metric for capturing average production is the 14 year Average RAPM dataset that Jeremias Englemann put together. It includes playoffs. It accounts for aging bias, etc, but includes NO box score information at all (it doesn't need to). It gives us a player's average production over the 14 year period from 2001 through last season, 2014.

In that time period, we have Dirk, Kevin Garnett, LeBron, Wade, most of Kobe, most of Duncan, and a number of other elite players.

The best over that period was Kevin Garnett, and the only one close was LeBron.

This average RAPM has very little error associated with it for players with such large sample sizes.

A comprehensive visualization of the data is located at http://public.tableausoftware.com/profi ... 14YearRAPM

The top 11 by average rating (per possession) over the past 14 years:

1. Kevin Garnett - 9.7
2. LeBron James - 9.5
3. Tim Duncan - 7.9
4. Chris Paul - 7.4
5. Dirk Nowitzki - 7.4
6. Manu Ginobili - 6.9
7. Steve Nash - 6.0
8. Paul Pierce - 5.9
9. Amir Johnson (Small Sample Size) - 5.8
10. LaMarcus Aldridge - 5.8
11. Shaquille O'Neal - 5.7

I feel that, given the quality of the stats available, we have enough information to say that Dirk Nowitzki should not get in before Kevin Garnett.

The fact that Kobe isn't in the top 11 says a lot about the credibility of that data.

Literally the only advantage KG has over Dirk is +/- stats. Dirk led minisculely better supporting casts to vastly better records. He was a vastly better Playoff performer, and his dominant skill (spacing and distorting defenses) had a much more visible impact on his team's success than KG's (help defense and pick and roll management).

It really can't be ignored that one guy shone brightest when his team needed him most and the other shrunk badly.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[ThaRegul8r]

That post raises a question for me, though.

Is the mark of the goodness of a stat that one's player of choice ranks highly on it? I'm just curious. Because I see some stats are said to be the best and they just so happen to support a player that person happens to be advocating for, and then other stats are bad, and a player they advocate for just so happens to score poorly in it. So how does it work?

[DannyNoonan1221]

Barkley led the league in rebounding in 1986-87 with 14.6 per game—becoming the shortest player in NBA history to do so; he finished second in 1985-86 (12.8 RPG), 1988-89 (12.5 RPG) and 1998-99 (12.3 RPG). “Pound for pound, Barkley and Wes Unseld are the greatest rebounders in the history of the game,” said Kevin Lougherty. “Charles wasn’t even 6-foot-5, you know” (Elliot Kalb, Who’s Better, Who’s Best in Basketball?: Mr. Stats Sets the Record Straight on the Top 50 NBA Players of All Time, p. 196). “I don’t know when I’ve seen a better rebounder,” said George Karl (Philadelphia Daily News, May 13, 1986).]

I have a problem with this quote. So we are strengthening Barkley's rebounding numbers because he was short, diminishing Moses' because he was a big center, yet in all the other threads guys are getting nods on the defensive end because their position is more of an anchor than guards.

I am not saying you specifically are doing this- but that quote will persuade other people in what I think is an unfair way. "Barkley's rebounding numbers don't match up with Moses' " "but he was 6'5" so pound for pound his numbers are better". That's essentially ranking players off of 'what could have been'. If we are doing that, then we should be trying to translate all guards to centers to see how much defensive impact they WOULD have had and ranking them based on that.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm not a voter, but I want to interject regarding the players we have good lineup data for.

Over the past 14 years, the best overall metric for capturing average production is the 14 year Average RAPM dataset that Jeremias Englemann put together. It includes playoffs. It accounts for aging bias, etc, but includes NO box score information at all (it doesn't need to). It gives us a player's average production over the 14 year period from 2001 through last season, 2014.

In that time period, we have Dirk, Kevin Garnett, LeBron, Wade, most of Kobe, most of Duncan, and a number of other elite players.

The best over that period was Kevin Garnett, and the only one close was LeBron.

This average RAPM has very little error associated with it for players with such large sample sizes.

A comprehensive visualization of the data is located at http://public.tableausoftware.com/profi ... 14YearRAPM

The top 11 by average rating (per possession) over the past 14 years:

1. Kevin Garnett - 9.7
2. LeBron James - 9.5
3. Tim Duncan - 7.9
4. Chris Paul - 7.4
5. Dirk Nowitzki - 7.4
6. Manu Ginobili - 6.9
7. Steve Nash - 6.0
8. Paul Pierce - 5.9
9. Amir Johnson (Small Sample Size) - 5.8
10. LaMarcus Aldridge - 5.8
11. Shaquille O'Neal - 5.7

I feel that, given the quality of the stats available, we have enough information to say that Dirk Nowitzki should not get in before Kevin Garnett.

The fact that Kobe isn't in the top 11 says a lot about the credibility of that data.

Literally the only advantage KG has over Dirk is +/- stats. Dirk led minisculely better supporting casts to vastly better records. He was a vastly better Playoff performer, and his dominant skill (spacing and distorting defenses) had a much more visible impact on his team's success than KG's (help defense and pick and roll management).

It really can't be ignored that one guy shone brightest when his team needed him most and the other shrunk badly.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

For the record, there are issues with using a 14 year data set like this. Fundamentally as with any long-term study, peak & longevity get confused together. It's an even bigger issue here though with someone like Kobe because +/- tells us his impact really disappeared in the past few years even though he was still putting up stats that made him look to the world like he was still close to his best. Pretty understandable imho if someone looked at Kobe's career and focused more on his prime impact and how physically capable he was as he aged to judge longevity.

I'll also note that if you just took the offensive part of this metric, Kobe certainly shows up:

1. LeBron James - 7.2
2. Steve Nash - 6.6
3. Kobe Bryant - 6.2

If DSMok had led with that list, I think most here would think "Well that's not too crazy". The stat recognizes Kobe's strength without question it's just that defense that gets in the way. And while I know that's tough for some to swallow, I would hope it would make more sense to people.

Regardless, the mentality that you're going to dismiss a stats credibility because one guy was absent from the best of the best list just isn't a way to get objective analysis done. Kobe's placement on these lists - excellent, but not quite as excellent as his supporters think it should be - is a thing we see again and again and again. There's some reason to explain it, and luck isn't a realistic answer. So what, then, is that reason?

EDIT: Also saying the only think KG has over Dirk is +/- is silly. KG's vastly better on defense.

I continue to marvel at how people brush that two sides of the ball aside like they're easy to sum up. Player X is better on offense, Player Y better on defense. Reasonable for someone to be confident in both those assessments, but combining such dissimilar things? How can you do that with confidence?

Realistically the traditional method of many is just to look at whose team had the better record and go backwards, and obviously that's not good enough.

Regardless though, KG's in, Dirk's not, and Dirk is a worthy candidate right now. Great player who has frequently been underrated.

[Doctor MJ]

That post raises a question for me, though.

Is the mark of the goodness of a stat that one's player of choice ranks highly on it? I'm just curious. Because I see some stats are said to be the best and they just so happen to support a player that person happens to be advocating for, and then other stats are bad, and a player they advocate for just so happens to score poorly in it. So how does it work?

Obviously you're not alleging everyone does things the same way, but I'll say as I've said in the past:

I don't particularly like Kevin Garnett. He doesn't seem to me like a guy who really has perspective on the world, and there are times when he trolls opponents basically relying on the fact that there are refs there to keep his ass from getting kicked.

I just ran out of reasons to place him any lower than I do, and because of that I'm now seen as a KG homer.

[shutupandjam]

Given David Robinson's substantial defensive advantage, how comfortable are we that Moses had an offensive advantage given his extremely poor assist rates?

(I looked at Moses's assist rates and other shortcomings here:

Spoiler:

In terms of statistics (especially in the playoffs), Moses is comparable to DRob: http://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/m/moses_malone_vs_david_robinson.htm

A few points I want to make about Moses statistically that are very concerning to me.

If you look at his numbers closely, he begins to look like a black hole on offense who doesn't get his teammates involved and turns the ball over a lot. In essence, there's something the other elite bigs had that he seemed to lack on offense in terms of finding the open man. Look at the career (pace-adjusted) assists per36 of the "elite" level bigs:

Career ast/36
1.Garnett, 4.3
2.Walton, 4.2
3.Barkley, 4.0
4.Karl, 3.7
5.Duncan, 3.5
6.Kareem, 3.3
7.Wilt, 2.9
8.Russell, 2.9
9.Dirk, 2.9
10.Shaq, 2.8
11.Robinson, 2.8
12.Hakeem, 2.6
13.Ewing, 2.1
14.Moses, 1.4

Moses is blown away by these guys. And when you're using the amount of possessions he did, you have to be able to find the open man, especially when you consider the number of doubles he probably commanded.

And look at the turnover rates:

Career tov/36
1.Dirk, 2.0
2.Garnett, 2.5
3.Robinson, 2.7
4.Kareem, 2.8
5.Duncan, 2.9
6.Shaq, 3.1
7.Hakeem, 3.1
8.Karl, 3.2
9.Moses, 3.2
10.Barkley, 3.2
11.Ewing, 3.3
12.Walton, 3.7

Despite having the worst assist rate by a mile, Moses was turning it over at pretty high rates. His career ast to tov ratio is only 0.4, easily the lowest of the bunch. And it's not like he was a dominant scorer compared to the rest of the group - his scoring rate ranks 10th and his ts% ranks 7th.

And this is offense, the strength of his game. On defense, he has the lowest defensive rebound rate of the bunch, only bests Duncan and Shaq in steal rate, and his block rate is only better than Dirk, Barkley, and Karl Malone.

)

Also, the best wing prime Robinson got to play with was Sean Elliott. How would Robinson do with Julius Erving? Or perhaps more appropriately, how much better would Robinson do with a supporting cast of Cheeks, Toney, Erving, and Bobby Jones than one of Avery Johnson, Del Negro, Elliot, and (kind of) Dennis Rodman?


Generally speaking, how much credit do people give Robinson for the 99 title? Is that Duncan's title in everyone's mind? Do we see Robinson as a Kobe to Duncan's Shaq, a Pippen to Duncan's Jordan, or something worse?

[DSMok1]

Well... and he won't, lol.

That was rather pointless seeing how Garnett is already in.

Sorry about that. I went in to the post thinking about analyzing Dirk, and then got sidetracked with KG, forgetting that he was already in.

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That post raises a question for me, though.

Is the mark of the goodness of a stat that one's player of choice ranks highly on it? I'm just curious. Because I see some stats are said to be the best and they just so happen to support a player that person happens to be advocating for, and then other stats are bad, and a player they advocate for just so happens to score poorly in it. So how does it work?

That is certainly the common approach in discussions like these!

From the APBRmetrics perspective, the hierarchy of catch-all stats would be (for individual years):
1. RPM/xRAPM (same thing) (box-score informed RAPM)
2. ASPM
3. Win Shares
*large gap*
4. PER (remembering it only measures offense)

For multi-year analysis, nothing can beat the averaged RAPM for overall estimating.

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Please do review the overall list of that 14 year RAPM and don't make any assumptions out of hand. As far as I know, it is the closest thing we have publicly to the "holy grail" stat, capturing every facet of a player's game (without much random noise messing it up). http://public.tableausoftware.com/profi ... 14YearRAPM

Here are a few summary lists: Minimum about 45,000 possessions (I wanted to catch Roy Hibbert):

Remember, this is from 2001 to 2014 average production (weighted by minutes played):

Average RAPM
Top 20 Overall:

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╔══════╦═══════════════════╦═════════╦═════════╦═════════╦═════════════╗
║ Rank ║       Name        ║ Overall ║ Offense ║ Defense ║ Possessions ║
╠══════╬═══════════════════╬═════════╬═════════╬═════════╬═════════════╣
║    1 ║ Kevin Garnett     ║ 9.7     ║ 2.4     ║ 7.3     ║      129965 ║
║    2 ║ LeBron James      ║ 9.5     ║ 7.2     ║ 2.2     ║      121792 ║
║    3 ║ Tim Duncan        ║ 7.9     ║ 2       ║ 5.9     ║      130308 ║
║    5 ║ Dirk Nowitzki     ║ 7.4     ║ 5.2     ║ 2.1     ║      143773 ║
║    4 ║ Chris Paul        ║ 7.4     ║ 6.6     ║ 0.8     ║       73056 ║
║    6 ║ Manu Ginobili     ║ 6.9     ║ 5.2     ║ 1.7     ║       80184 ║
║    7 ║ Steve Nash        ║ 6       ║ 6.6     ║ -0.6    ║      127661 ║
║    8 ║ Paul Pierce       ║ 5.9     ║ 3.6     ║ 2.2     ║      142616 ║
║    9 ║ LaMarcus Aldridge ║ 5.8     ║ 2.3     ║ 3.4     ║       73655 ║
║   11 ║ Shaquille O'Neal  ║ 5.7     ║ 2.9     ║ 2.8     ║       81502 ║
║   10 ║ Tracy McGrady     ║ 5.7     ║ 5.2     ║ 0.5     ║       95789 ║
║   12 ║ Dwyane Wade       ║ 5.6     ║ 5.2     ║ 0.4     ║       97576 ║
║   13 ║ Baron Davis       ║ 5.5     ║ 4.3     ║ 1.2     ║      102132 ║
║   15 ║ Rasheed Wallace   ║ 5.3     ║ 1       ║ 4.3     ║       90473 ║
║   14 ║ Kobe Bryant       ║ 5.3     ║ 6.2     ║ -0.9    ║      142927 ║
║   16 ║ Andrei Kirilenko  ║ 4.9     ║ 2.6     ║ 2.3     ║       87639 ║
║   18 ║ Luol Deng         ║ 4.8     ║ 1.9     ║ 3       ║       89588 ║
║   17 ║ Vince Carter      ║ 4.8     ║ 3.4     ║ 1.4     ║      126164 ║
║   19 ║ Andre Iguodala    ║ 4.6     ║ 1.7     ║ 2.8     ║      103972 ║
║   20 ║ Anderson Varejao  ║ 4.5     ║ 0.9     ║ 3.6     ║       49652 ║
╚══════╩═══════════════════╩═════════╩═════════╩═════════╩═════════════╝

Top 20 on Defense:

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╔════════╦═══════════════════╦═════════╦═════════╦═════════╦═════════════╗
║ Rank D ║       Name        ║ Overall ║ Offense ║ Defense ║ Possessions ║
╠════════╬═══════════════════╬═════════╬═════════╬═════════╬═════════════╣
║      1 ║ Kevin Garnett     ║ 9.7     ║ 2.4     ║ 7.3     ║      129965 ║
║      2 ║ Tim Duncan        ║ 7.9     ║ 2       ║ 5.9     ║      130308 ║
║      3 ║ Andrew Bogut      ║ 4       ║ -1.4    ║ 5.4     ║       58863 ║
║      4 ║ Ben Wallace       ║ 3.5     ║ -1.9    ║ 5.4     ║       99518 ║
║      5 ║ Jason Collins     ║ 1.6     ║ -3.8    ║ 5.4     ║       54052 ║
║      6 ║ Nene Hilario      ║ 4.2     ║ -0.2    ║ 4.4     ║       76175 ║
║      7 ║ Rasheed Wallace   ║ 5.3     ║ 1       ║ 4.3     ║       90473 ║
║      8 ║ Marc Gasol        ║ 3.7     ║ -0.3    ║ 4.1     ║       53456 ║
║      9 ║ Tony Allen        ║ 3.4     ║ -0.6    ║ 4       ║       46252 ║
║     10 ║ Tyson Chandler    ║ 3       ║ -0.9    ║ 4       ║       84466 ║
║     11 ║ Yao Ming          ║ 4       ║ 0.1     ║ 3.9     ║       57246 ║
║     12 ║ Brendan Haywood   ║ 2.3     ║ -1.5    ║ 3.8     ║       68195 ║
║     13 ║ Anderson Varejao  ║ 4.5     ║ 0.9     ║ 3.6     ║       49652 ║
║     14 ║ Roy Hibbert       ║ 3.3     ║ -0.4    ║ 3.6     ║       44984 ║
║     15 ║ LaMarcus Aldridge ║ 5.8     ║ 2.3     ║ 3.4     ║       73655 ║
║     16 ║ Metta World Peace ║ 4.4     ║ 1       ║ 3.4     ║      105868 ║
║     17 ║ Jeff Foster       ║ 4       ║ 0.6     ║ 3.4     ║       58315 ║
║     18 ║ Eddie Jones       ║ 3.9     ║ 0.7     ║ 3.3     ║       64003 ║
║     19 ║ Dwight Howard     ║ 3.5     ║ 0.4     ║ 3.1     ║      102038 ║
║     20 ║ Doug Christie     ║ 3.1     ║ 0.1     ║ 3.1     ║       50655 ║
╚════════╩═══════════════════╩═════════╩═════════╩═════════╩═════════════╝

Top 25 on Offense:

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╔════════╦═══════════════════╦═════════╦═════════╦═════════╦═════════════╗
║ Rank O ║       Name        ║ Overall ║ Offense ║ Defense ║ Possessions ║
╠════════╬═══════════════════╬═════════╬═════════╬═════════╬═════════════╣
║      1 ║ LeBron James      ║ 9.5     ║ 7.2     ║ 2.2     ║      121792 ║
║      2 ║ Chris Paul        ║ 7.4     ║ 6.6     ║ 0.8     ║       73056 ║
║      3 ║ Steve Nash        ║ 6       ║ 6.6     ║ -0.6    ║      127661 ║
║      4 ║ Kobe Bryant       ║ 5.3     ║ 6.2     ║ -0.9    ║      142927 ║
║      5 ║ Dirk Nowitzki     ║ 7.4     ║ 5.2     ║ 2.1     ║      143773 ║
║      6 ║ Manu Ginobili     ║ 6.9     ║ 5.2     ║ 1.7     ║       80184 ║
║      7 ║ Tracy McGrady     ║ 5.7     ║ 5.2     ║ 0.5     ║       95789 ║
║      8 ║ Dwyane Wade       ║ 5.6     ║ 5.2     ║ 0.4     ║       97576 ║
║      9 ║ Ray Allen         ║ 3.5     ║ 5.1     ║ -1.6    ║      131202 ║
║     10 ║ Peja Stojakovic   ║ 2.9     ║ 4.6     ║ -1.7    ║       90731 ║
║     11 ║ Baron Davis       ║ 5.5     ║ 4.3     ║ 1.2     ║      102132 ║
║     12 ║ Deron Williams    ║ 2       ║ 4.3     ║ -2.3    ║       85390 ║
║     13 ║ Chauncey Billups  ║ 2.6     ║ 4.2     ║ -1.6    ║      105687 ║
║     14 ║ Mike Conley       ║ 4.1     ║ 4       ║ 0.1     ║       61243 ║
║     15 ║ Paul Pierce       ║ 5.9     ║ 3.6     ║ 2.2     ║      142616 ║
║     16 ║ Michael Redd      ║ -0.1    ║ 3.6     ║ -3.7    ║       74365 ║
║     17 ║ Kevin Martin      ║ 0.1     ║ 3.5     ║ -3.3    ║       73293 ║
║     18 ║ Vince Carter      ║ 4.8     ║ 3.4     ║ 1.4     ║      126164 ║
║     19 ║ Rashard Lewis     ║ 3.9     ║ 3.4     ║ 0.5     ║      117104 ║
║     20 ║ Stephen Curry     ║ 3.1     ║ 3.3     ║ -0.2    ║       46886 ║
║     21 ║ Carmelo Anthony   ║ 1.7     ║ 3.3     ║ -1.5    ║      110155 ║
║     22 ║ Antawn Jamison    ║ 1.3     ║ 3.2     ║ -1.9    ║      132996 ║
║     23 ║ Russell Westbrook ║ 4.2     ║ 3       ║ 1.2     ║       57315 ║
║     24 ║ Joe Johnson       ║ 2.8     ║ 3       ║ -0.2    ║      130956 ║
║     25 ║ Jason Terry       ║ 0.9     ║ 3       ║ -2.1    ║      129602 ║
╚════════╩═══════════════════╩═════════╩═════════╩═════════╩═════════════╝

There are still some flaws with this--particularly for players who started out awful and became great. Kevin Durant is dragged down by his Sonics years.

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Anyway, this gives us a pretty reasonable method for measuring Dirk against some other greats. Since the 3 above him are already in, Dirk is certainly a good candidate to be next.