Peaks Project #17

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,703
And1: 8,339
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#21 » by trex_8063 » Fri Oct 2, 2015 9:06 pm

cyclix wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
cyclix wrote:The hate for Wade is unreal. Unbelievable.


Please don't post stuff like this here. It isn't constructive or detailed or evidence-based, it only stokes the fire, to the point that I'd almost label it trolling. Besides which, Wade has already been voted in (and I don't think #16 all-time is at all unfair to him), and we've probably already derailed this thread enough.
EDIT: And as Chuck has stated, the majority of Wade's "detractors" (if they can even be labeled as such) arrived at their conclusions thru a great deal of consideration.

...If Wade has already been voted in, then why are we revisiting something that has been decided? That makes no sense to me.


Because the list isn't the only point of the project, not even the main point.....the discussion and free-share of information and opinion is. And the discussion doesn't have to come to a screeching halt after a guy gets voted in, though I agree this is not the most appropriate place to continue the Wade debate.

cyclix wrote:It must really disturb them that bad.


And this is blatant trolling. Please stop.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,861
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#22 » by drza » Fri Oct 2, 2015 9:14 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:
drza wrote:
Spoiler:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
First I'll note that theonlyclutch and I are not anti-Wade, we just see things a different way.

Second, the main point of the argument is that Wade's numbers are so ridiculous because his cast was so poor he had to do everything for them. That's fine, but the issue arose when people then began using those his outrageous box score stats to suggest he was better than players who had lesser stats but similar (or greater) impact as indicated by that family of stats. The issue is that were Wade transported to a supporting cast like Curry or Dirk had, he would not be taking 36% USG and would not be averaging 30/10/10, and thus the pro-Wade argument goes away. Do you see why that's a problem?


I'm not sure you have enough data to support the underlined. Dirk and Curry both had casts that fit their skill-sets perfectly, even if the top-end talent wasn't as high as the Heatles. And in both cases their casts had skillsets to fit productive roles around a transcendant superstar. If you gave Wade a cast of similar overall caliber, but tailored to his strengths, I don't doubt he could have led a contender from a high primacy/high usage role that would have been very high impact. I agree with you that Wade's portability isn't as strong as Dirk's or Curry's because of their shooting ability/spacing impacts, but I'm not sure that we have any evidence that he couldn't scale to an excellent team if he was surrounded by more talent that fit his game.


There's not much evidence that he could do so in a role with that much primacy, which is the driving force behind his boxscore production:

In 2009, Wade was taking 36.2% USG and 40.3% AST%, this indicates a near-historical amount of ball-dominance, here are the seasons where a player has taken >=35% USG and >=40% AST:
2009 Wade
2015 Westbrook

loosening the requirement to >=30% USG, we can add:
2010 Lebron
2011 WB
2009 Parker
2012 D-Will

i.e, D-Wade on a contending team is incredibly unlikely going to be taking such off-the-charts ball dominance


Similar to what I just wrote to Dr. Spaceman, if your point is purely that his primacy might go down a bit with better teammates then I guess I'd say..."OK, maybe" but it wouldn't really affect whether Wade was worthy of being voted in that high.

And really, you could build a team of similar caliber to the 2015 Warriors but more suited to Wade's strengths that would let him have mega impact on a championship-level squad with still mega primacy. For example:

Andrew Bogut (strong defender, doesn't need the ball much)
Draymond Green (strong defender and shooter, even when he's playing more off ball)
Klay Thompson (excellent defense-stretching shooter)
Lead guard that can shoot more than floor general (maybe Steve Kerr/John Paxson type?)

That team could run through Wade almost exclusively on offense, the same way that those 09/10 Heat did, but now they'd have a championship caliber defense and better offensive spacing/production. I think Wade could lead a team like that to a title while averaging 30/7 on great percentages with a mega RAPM. Would his USG be over 35%? Maybe? I don't know? But for the sake of this project, I really don't think I'd care.
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
User avatar
cyclix
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,247
And1: 4,636
Joined: Dec 05, 2013
       

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#23 » by cyclix » Fri Oct 2, 2015 9:17 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
cyclix wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Please don't post stuff like this here. It isn't constructive or detailed or evidence-based, it only stokes the fire, to the point that I'd almost label it trolling. Besides which, Wade has already been voted in (and I don't think #16 all-time is at all unfair to him), and we've probably already derailed this thread enough.
EDIT: And as Chuck has stated, the majority of Wade's "detractors" (if they can even be labeled as such) arrived at their conclusions thru a great deal of consideration.

...If Wade has already been voted in, then why are we revisiting something that has been decided? That makes no sense to me.


Because the list isn't the only point of the project, not even the main point.....the discussion and free-share of information and opinion is. And the discussion doesn't have to come to a screeching halt after a guy gets voted in, though I agree this is not the most appropriate place to continue the Wade debate.

cyclix wrote:It must really disturb them that bad.


And this is blatant trolling. Please stop.

Trust me, if I was trolling, I would make it obvious. Bringing up a issue totally unrelated to the topic is more of a trollish nature. Especially if it's an unrelated issue that has disagreements between parties debating it.
User avatar
thizznation
Starter
Posts: 2,066
And1: 778
Joined: Aug 10, 2012

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#24 » by thizznation » Fri Oct 2, 2015 9:36 pm

cyclix wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
cyclix wrote:...If Wade has already been voted in, then why are we revisiting something that has been decided? That makes no sense to me.


Because the list isn't the only point of the project, not even the main point.....the discussion and free-share of information and opinion is. And the discussion doesn't have to come to a screeching halt after a guy gets voted in, though I agree this is not the most appropriate place to continue the Wade debate.

cyclix wrote:It must really disturb them that bad.


And this is blatant trolling. Please stop.

Trust me, if I was trolling, I would make it obvious. Bringing up a issue totally unrelated to the topic is more of a trollish nature. Especially if it's an unrelated issue that has disagreements between parties debating it.


I understand your frustration but there is still some relevance in it. The points they bring up are points that further support their arguments regarding other players. In addition it is the first thread since Wade got in, so there are going to be people that want to at least express a final thought on the selection.
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,861
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#25 » by drza » Fri Oct 2, 2015 9:58 pm

Re: Dirk vs Curry

I don't have the time to really sink my teeth into this one, but I'd love if this could spark a discussion. Because really, I think that Dirk 2011 was bigger impact at the thing that Curry 2015 was best at: offensive spacing/gravity. Curry was excellent at it, especially for a guard, because his range was so deep. But even factoring in when Curry was double-teamed, a larger portion of the time Dirk was the one pulling big men away from the rim and thus further upsetting the defense.

Just looking at the basic raw boxscore (per 100 stats) and raw impact numbers:

Reg season
Curry: 35.5 pts (63.8% TS), 11.6 ast/4.7 TO, 6.4 reb, 3.0 stl, 0.3 blk +17.9 on/off
Dirk: 35.3 pts (61.2% TS), 10.8 reb, 4.0 ast/2.9 TO, 0.8 stl, 1.0 blk +16 on/off

Playoffs
Curry: 36.9 pts(60.7% TS), 8.3 ast/5.1 TO, 6.5 reb, 2.4 stl, 0.2 blk +6.3 on/off
Dirk: 39.1 pts (60.9% TS), 11.5 reb, 3.6 ast/4.4 TO, 0.8 stl, 0.9 blk +16.8 on/off

I don't see much in the way of distance either way in the raw numbers, but I know that as far as RAPM goes, Dirk in '11 was one of the best that we've seen in the past 15 years or so that we have the data. Curry had great raw on/off +/- in the season, but there was no real separation between him and the other main Warriors starters (Draymond +15 something, Thompson +13 or so) whereas IIRC Dirk had much clearer distinction between he and his teammates (Kidd at like -5, Terry at like +3 or something like that). My point is, I think that Dirk's RAPM was better in 2011 than Curry's was in 2015. Let me know if I'm wrong, as with a quick search I can't find 2015 RAPM (all I can find is ESPN's RPM, which has uses but heavily relies on the box scores which I've already accounted for), but if I'm right I think Dirk's measured impact on his team was higher BECAUSE Dirk's non-boxscore impact (especially on offense) was better than Curry's.

Also, just in general, I think that Dirk's is the more unique skillset and the one that would scale the most. Both have excellent portability/scalability, but Dirk (by nature of his position) doesn't require as much on-ball primacy as Curry to maintain his maximum impact so I think his impact would scale better.

Short answer: I think Curry 15 was great, but that Dirk 11 was (at least in my mind) clearly better, with enough space for others to easily be voted in between. Have we had any other Dirk/Curry comparisons from the opposite POV? If not, I'd love to see some.
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
mischievous
General Manager
Posts: 7,675
And1: 3,485
Joined: Apr 18, 2015

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#26 » by mischievous » Fri Oct 2, 2015 10:11 pm

Ballot 1: 03 Tmac

Ballot 2: 90 Ewing

Ballot 3: Undecided but i'm looking at Dirk KD or Kobe. Id like to hear a discussion on the 3. The way i see it, KD clearly had a better regular season than those 2 ever did, but how much do we weigh Kobe and Dirk's superior playoffs runs here? I think it needs some resolve.

My reasoning for Tmac and Ewing is the same as in the previous thread.

Oh and Jerry West too! I can see him on ballot 3.

Edit: My Ballot 3 will go to 08 Kobe Bryant. I see his 06-09 along with 01 and 03 seasons as hard to separate but i feel 08 was his best mix of regular season and playoffs. I don't feel right in giving 09 the nod over 08 just because he won the title, Kobe just happened to run into arguably the best defense ever in the 08 Celtics i can't fault him too much for that one series. And besides it ain't like his scoring was all that efficient against Orlando. I think his playoff series in 06 and 07 could've been better so that keeps me from picking one of those series, also Kobe was able to focus more on defense since his offensive load was lower in 08.

Kobe's run through the West in 08 was insane:

Vs Nuggets: 33.5/5.3/6.3 59.4 ts%
vs Jazz 33.2/7/7.2 62.9 ts%
Vs the SPurs in the WCF: 29.2/5.6/3.8 58.5 ts%

That's very impressive consistency.

Dirk and KD are very close to Kobe, but i give Kobe the edge mainly because i know he can turn up his defense to make impact when need be in the playoffs. KD and Dirk were more or less neutral defenders at their peaks, you're not really going to see them make much of an impact on that end. It was hard going against 06 Dirk, especially the way he destroyed the Spurs in the WCF but i think Kobe's offense was right up there with his and he's a little better defensively so small edge to Kobe. KD is right in that mix too, but i can't help but overlook that he had 2 series in the playoffs that were well below his own standards, even if it was against top 5 defenses. Thing is with KD, if his shot isn't falling he can only do so much to make up for it in other areas, he isn't going to lock anybody down, he won't really get you 8-10 assists on any kind of regular basis etc.

Jerry West is in this mix for sure, but i don't feel comfortable putting him ahead of those 3 guys. He didn't face the the same caliber of defenders or team defenses that these guys have in the modern era.

Other Honorable mentions to Stephen Curry, Charles Barkley, Karl, and Moses Malone.
User avatar
PaulieWal
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 13,909
And1: 16,218
Joined: Aug 28, 2013

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#27 » by PaulieWal » Fri Oct 2, 2015 10:38 pm

I am completely opening up my ballot here though I think CP will get one of the spots for sure as I have been voting for him over the last two threads. I am looking at KD, Kobe, Dirk, Curry, Tmac, Ewing, and Nash. I am most likely to go with some combination of CP, Dirk, KD or Kobe. I am open to changing my mind.

One player that I am really interested in is Nash. I know some people are very high on him and his Suns teams. Is he becoming a real candidate here for anyone?
JordansBulls wrote:The Warriors are basically a good college team until they meet a team with bigs in the NBA.
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,703
And1: 8,339
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#28 » by trex_8063 » Fri Oct 2, 2015 10:40 pm

Stephen Curry vs. Jerry West
A year or two ago if asked to come up with a past-era analogy for Curry, I'd have said "a slightly smaller, [much] less defensively capable Jerry West". **I feel I'll need to qualify that "slightly smaller" statement, given bbref lists Curry as 6'3" and West as 6'2".

First off, I simply cannot believe the 6'2" listing for West, at least not by modern standards, and I'll provide the following photographic evidence:
Spoiler:
Image

Image

Image

Image


We can add this to the mounting pile of photographic evidence that they most certainly do list player heights differently today than they did back then.
If Kobe is listed as 6'6" and Wade at 6'4", the consensus I get from those photos is that West would probably be listed at 6'4" today. He also had those sort of peculiar high-set shoulders and fairly long arms.....I think he's perhaps effectively closer to 6'5".

Anyway, back to why I thought West made a somewhat appropriate comp for Curry:
They're both scoring PG's who were fantastic outside shooters, and lived a lot from the outside; and they both had the lightning fast release. In fact, before Stephen Curry came along, if I were asked who had the quickest release in NBA history, I would have said West (Curry might actually edge him out by a few nanoseconds). Prior to Steph, the only other guy who seemed close to West in this regard was Dell Curry (Steph's pops.....no coincidence here, I'm sure).


After this '15 season, the defensive gap doesn't seem quite a large. I mean, it's still substantial, but as others have argued and provided evidence for (was my impression from eye-test this past season, too): Steph was better defensively in '15 than ever before in his career.
Have been watching some more tape of West recently, though, with special focus on how he plays defense; and I must admit he appears to be the real deal defensively. Extraordinary timing and anticipation, amazingly quick hands......tbh, I'm not sure I've ever seen his equal in these regards. I don't see him gambling himself out of position too often to come up with those steals, as they're more often than not ON-ball picks (which has less likelihood to leave you out of the play defensively). He was great at harrying entry passes, long and quick enough to come up with blocks, contested outside shots super-well, etc.
So yeah, I still think the defensive gap is substantial (just not quite as big as it was prior to '15).

btw, nice summary (granted it's highlights, but it gives a good indication of what West was about and what he was capable of; goes in stages: first his jump-shooting, then his slashing/finishing, then his defense, then his play-making). Worth a watch:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEzwR1a8KuA[/youtube]

Offensively, though, I think Curry has surpassed West, and perhaps by a decent margin. I still think West has the greater capacity to bury opponents from the mid-range (would just LOVE to have shooting data for that era, because West must have been remarkable), especially given his apparent greater ability to hit the contested pull-up from 14-20 ft; and I think he's as good a finisher near the rim as Curry (kinda like Barkley, I notice a tendency to keep two hands on the ball even on lay-ups until just before he's going to release it....I think it helps with absorbing minor contact and still finishing), and he's BETTER at drawing fouls (though Curry's the better FT-shooter). And no doubt West would benefit from a 3pt line.
But Curry's outside shooting is legitimately GOAT-level, especially considering his ability to shoot that well contested and off the dribble. I mean 44.3% from trey while taking >12 3PA/100 possessions is already remarkable (previously unheard of, actually); to then consider that only 7 of 12 of them were assisted (so 5 of 12 are off the dribble or otherwise in isolation).......ridiculous.

"Only" 23.8 ppg belies what was one of the all-time great scoring seasons, imo (especially in light of my prior discussions with The-Power, regarding Curry's ability to "carry on as usual" even if shouldering larger minutes).

And while West was a pretty good play-maker, I simply believe Curry to be a little better.
And actually, when you adjust for pace and minutes and such, it seems West actually doesn't have any significant advantage as a rebounder.

Anyway, after much rumination, West is rising on my peaks barometer, but I ultimately think Curry a bit superior based on the better offense (PG, after all). And because all the eye-test, lack of major weaknesses, season narrative, and elite box/advanced metrics all coincide with elite impact indicators, too.....I'm going to give Curry the edge over the other guys I was considering for my third ballot.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
mischievous
General Manager
Posts: 7,675
And1: 3,485
Joined: Apr 18, 2015

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#29 » by mischievous » Fri Oct 2, 2015 11:39 pm

Are we really sure that Cp3 is better than Nash in peaks? I mean if there's evidence to believe that Cp was around average defensively in 08, shouldn't that leave the door open for Nash being his offense is likely better?
User avatar
PaulieWal
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 13,909
And1: 16,218
Joined: Aug 28, 2013

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#30 » by PaulieWal » Fri Oct 2, 2015 11:48 pm

mischievous wrote:Are we really sure that Cp3 is better than Nash in peaks? I mean if there's evidence to believe that Cp was around average defensively in 08, shouldn't that leave the door open for Nash being his offense is likely better?


Yes, that's what I am interested in having a discussion on. But even average defensively for CP in 08 is still a lot better than what Nash did.
JordansBulls wrote:The Warriors are basically a good college team until they meet a team with bigs in the NBA.
User avatar
Tim_Hardawayy
RealGM
Posts: 30,474
And1: 10,060
Joined: Sep 17, 2008

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#31 » by Tim_Hardawayy » Fri Oct 2, 2015 11:54 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
mischievous wrote:Are we really sure that Cp3 is better than Nash in peaks? I mean if there's evidence to believe that Cp was around average defensively in 08, shouldn't that leave the door open for Nash being his offense is likely better?


Yes, that's what I am interested in having a discussion on. But even average defensively for CP in 08 is still a lot better than what Nash did.

That being said, wouldn't it also be fair to say the point guard is generally the lowest impact defensive position on the court in most cases? And with that being the case, the defensive gap between the two isn't nearly as important as any offensive gap?

(note not saying Nash is clearly offensive superior to Paul, simply commenting on the relative importance of defense from the point)
User avatar
PaulieWal
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 13,909
And1: 16,218
Joined: Aug 28, 2013

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#32 » by PaulieWal » Sat Oct 3, 2015 12:03 am

Tim_Hardawayy wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
mischievous wrote:Are we really sure that Cp3 is better than Nash in peaks? I mean if there's evidence to believe that Cp was around average defensively in 08, shouldn't that leave the door open for Nash being his offense is likely better?


Yes, that's what I am interested in having a discussion on. But even average defensively for CP in 08 is still a lot better than what Nash did.

That being said, wouldn't it also be fair to say the point guard is generally the lowest impact defensive position on the court in most cases? And with that being the case, the defensive gap between the two isn't nearly as important as any offensive gap?

(note not saying Nash is clearly offensive superior to Paul, simply commenting on the relative importance of defense from the point)


I will say this...I am usually higher on PG defense than most here.

I do agree that to have any impact as a PG defender you basically need to be a Beverly, CP, Wall (basically really elite). The question then becomes how much better was Nash offensively than CP at their respective peaks and how much of an edge did CP have defensively that year.

Though I don't think 12-15 CP is his peak but he's been the best Clipper defender during that time period and has been their best option on so many wings (even KD in the 14 playoffs).
JordansBulls wrote:The Warriors are basically a good college team until they meet a team with bigs in the NBA.
Lost92Bricks
Veteran
Posts: 2,551
And1: 2,487
Joined: Jul 16, 2013

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#33 » by Lost92Bricks » Sat Oct 3, 2015 12:05 am

mischievous wrote:Are we really sure that Cp3 is better than Nash in peaks? I mean if there's evidence to believe that Cp was around average defensively in 08, shouldn't that leave the door open for Nash being his offense is likely better?

'08 isn't CP3's peak. No one of that caliber peaks and stops getting better when they're 22 years old.
User avatar
PaulieWal
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 13,909
And1: 16,218
Joined: Aug 28, 2013

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#34 » by PaulieWal » Sat Oct 3, 2015 12:08 am

Lost92Bricks wrote:
mischievous wrote:Are we really sure that Cp3 is better than Nash in peaks? I mean if there's evidence to believe that Cp was around average defensively in 08, shouldn't that leave the door open for Nash being his offense is likely better?

'08 isn't CP3's peak. No one of that caliber peaks and stops getting better when they're 22 years old.


What do you have as CP's peak and what's your reasoning behind it if you don't mind sharing?
JordansBulls wrote:The Warriors are basically a good college team until they meet a team with bigs in the NBA.
ceiling raiser
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,531
And1: 3,754
Joined: Jan 27, 2013

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#35 » by ceiling raiser » Sat Oct 3, 2015 12:30 am

PaulieWal wrote:
Tim_Hardawayy wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
Yes, that's what I am interested in having a discussion on. But even average defensively for CP in 08 is still a lot better than what Nash did.

That being said, wouldn't it also be fair to say the point guard is generally the lowest impact defensive position on the court in most cases? And with that being the case, the defensive gap between the two isn't nearly as important as any offensive gap?

(note not saying Nash is clearly offensive superior to Paul, simply commenting on the relative importance of defense from the point)


I will say this...I am usually higher on PG defense than most here.

I do agree that to have any impact as a PG defender you basically need to be a Beverly, CP, Wall (basically really elite). The question then becomes how much better was Nash offensively than CP at their respective peaks and how much of an edge did CP have defensively that year.

Though I don't think 12-15 CP is his peak but he's been the best Clipper defender during that time period and has been their best option on so many wings (even KD in the 14 playoffs).

I don't know how I feel about the Nash/CP3 comparison but I agree with the bolded.

You can afford to hide one legitimately bad wing defender I'd say (EDIT: of any position), but on the other hand if you can switch onto a variety of perimeter players and are not prone to missed rotations, it can be tremendously valuable. In general I don't believe this would apply to too many guys, but maybe some PGs (CP3, Stockton, perhaps Kidd) make enough of a difference to rate with the top offensive point guards we've seen.

Now we should be careful not to over-credit guys, and I'm still hesitant to take defensive on/off and DRAPM at face value because of some of the potential offense/defense 'leakage' factors I mentioned a couple threads ago. But I think there is some discussion to be had.
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
Lost92Bricks
Veteran
Posts: 2,551
And1: 2,487
Joined: Jul 16, 2013

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#36 » by Lost92Bricks » Sat Oct 3, 2015 12:45 am

PaulieWal wrote:
Lost92Bricks wrote:
mischievous wrote:Are we really sure that Cp3 is better than Nash in peaks? I mean if there's evidence to believe that Cp was around average defensively in 08, shouldn't that leave the door open for Nash being his offense is likely better?

'08 isn't CP3's peak. No one of that caliber peaks and stops getting better when they're 22 years old.


What do you have as CP's peak and what's your reasoning behind it if you don't mind sharing?

2009. My reasoning is he still had his brilliant passing/distribution, but improved as a scorer, defender along with having another year of experience.

He had maybe the most ridiculous regular season ever for a PG and one of the best for a guard in general in '09. I'm not sure if a PG has ever shouldered a heavier load than he did that season. He accounted for over half of his team's FG's while still leading the league in steals and playing excellent defense. He even averaged nearly 6 boards a game despite being 6 ft tall.

His team was riddled with injuries (Chandler missed 37 games, Peja missed 21 games), and had 0 bench production (they went from being +6.5 when he was on the floor to being -13.1 when he sat on the bench). Besides West, his most consistant teammate was Rasual Butler. Despite this, he still led them to the 7th seed and had them playing like an elite offense when he was on the floor.
bastillon
Head Coach
Posts: 6,927
And1: 666
Joined: Feb 13, 2009
Location: Poland
   

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#37 » by bastillon » Sat Oct 3, 2015 12:45 am

mischievous wrote:Ballot 1: 03 Tmac

Ballot 2: 90 Ewing

Ballot 3: Undecided but i'm looking at Dirk KD or Kobe. Id like to hear a discussion on the 3. The way i see it, KD clearly had a better regular season than those 2 ever did, but how much do we weigh Kobe and Dirk's superior playoffs runs here? I think it needs some resolve.

My reasoning for Tmac and Ewing is the same as in the previous thread.

Oh and Jerry West too! I can see him on ballot 3.


Why TMac at #1? Isn't a concern for you that he got shutdown by Tayshaun Prince in the playoffs? Ever since Pistons put Prince on him, Magic were losing games by 20 pts with TMac shooting about 35-40% from the field? Isn't that a huge concern for a superstar guard that once he faces a good perimeter defender he gets dismantled?

just looking at those games vs. Prince (IIRC Prince was put on TMac in the 2nd half of G4):
G5: 19 pts, 8-20 FG, 98 ORtg, Orlando 67 pts
G6: 37 pts, 11-28 FG, 107 ORtg, Orlando 88 pts
G7: 21 pts, 7-24 FG, 93 ORtg, Orlando 93 pts

To me this is a worrying trend looking at the context of TMac's entire playoff career. We know that TMac averaged in his prime (01-08) 52% TS in the postseason. That is not a staggering result for a player whose main value comes from volume scoring. Of course TMac is not a one-trick pony, but still his scoring prowess was his biggest attribute. Frankly there is not one playoff series where TMac has high efficiency vs. quality playoff defense. We also know where this is coming from. TMac is a guy who usually shoots a lot of jumpshots. Sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't. This is why consistency over the course of a playoff series was always an issue for TMac.

This is why I feel like TMac is being considered too early right now. He hasn't proven himself as a guy who can sustain high level of play vs quality opponents.
Quotatious wrote: Bastillon is Hakeem. Combines style and substance.
bastillon
Head Coach
Posts: 6,927
And1: 666
Joined: Feb 13, 2009
Location: Poland
   

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#38 » by bastillon » Sat Oct 3, 2015 1:00 am

PaulieWal wrote:
Lost92Bricks wrote:
mischievous wrote:Are we really sure that Cp3 is better than Nash in peaks? I mean if there's evidence to believe that Cp was around average defensively in 08, shouldn't that leave the door open for Nash being his offense is likely better?

'08 isn't CP3's peak. No one of that caliber peaks and stops getting better when they're 22 years old.


What do you have as CP's peak and what's your reasoning behind it if you don't mind sharing?


I know it wasn't addressed to me, but I'll share my thoughts just in case:

1. His inexperience was a huge issue for the Hornets in the playoffs. You could see the difference just comparing their G7 performances in 08 vs. Spurs and G7 this year. In 08 series, Pargo was their best PG in that game 7. This is how poorly Paul was playing. He wasn't injured or anything, just didn't show up and as a result had no impact whatsoever. This year, despite the injury, Paul delivered a great performance and put up a game-winner. We all know that Paul is generally a good player in high pressure situations but this series in 08 vs. Spurs was clearly a learning experience. This is why you don't want your best player to be a leader under those circumstances, because he doesn't have enough experience to deliver clutch performance when it's needed.

2. Three point shooting, and shooting in general. Paul became a lot more proficient as his career developed, particularly around '10 or '11 IIRC. I'm sure you can look that up at synergy stats. Paul takes a lot more jumpshots now and that frees up the lane for other players. It gives you flexibility in terms of running multiple team compositions. You can pair him up with a guy like David West, who is a pick and pop player with rather poor rolling game, and Paul will be fine. But you can also pair him up with a guy like DeAndre Jordan who is solely a finisher and he'll be fine too. Clippers rely so much on their bigs rolling to the basket, I don't feel like 08 Paul would even have a good synergy with their bigs.

I wouldn't focus as much on Paul's stats in 08. There comes a time when players are young and hungry and they tend to prove their value by putting up huge stats. As they get older, nobody gives a damn about RS stats anymore so their stats tend to come down. That doesn't mean that these guys regressed. It just means they have matured. This was a trend for guys like MJ and Kobe as well. They didn't have their highest scoring seasons at their peak, it was rather far from it.

Paul's peak was probably around '11 or '12. He was still very athletic but at the same time gained a lot more experience from his playoff losses. I'd rather put my trust in that Paul than his inexperienced version who didn't show up for G7 in the postseason.
Quotatious wrote: Bastillon is Hakeem. Combines style and substance.
User avatar
theonlyclutch
Veteran
Posts: 2,795
And1: 3,729
Joined: Mar 03, 2015
 

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#39 » by theonlyclutch » Sat Oct 3, 2015 1:11 am

bastillon wrote:
mischievous wrote:Ballot 1: 03 Tmac

Ballot 2: 90 Ewing

Ballot 3: Undecided but i'm looking at Dirk KD or Kobe. Id like to hear a discussion on the 3. The way i see it, KD clearly had a better regular season than those 2 ever did, but how much do we weigh Kobe and Dirk's superior playoffs runs here? I think it needs some resolve.

My reasoning for Tmac and Ewing is the same as in the previous thread.

Oh and Jerry West too! I can see him on ballot 3.


Why TMac at #1? Isn't a concern for you that he got shutdown by Tayshaun Prince in the playoffs? Ever since Pistons put Prince on him, Magic were losing games by 20 pts with TMac shooting about 35-40% from the field? Isn't that a huge concern for a superstar guard that once he faces a good perimeter defender he gets dismantled?

just looking at those games vs. Prince (IIRC Prince was put on TMac in the 2nd half of G4):
G5: 19 pts, 8-20 FG, 98 ORtg, Orlando 67 pts
G6: 37 pts, 11-28 FG, 107 ORtg, Orlando 88 pts
G7: 21 pts, 7-24 FG, 93 ORtg, Orlando 93 pts

To me this is a worrying trend looking at the context of TMac's entire playoff career. We know that TMac averaged in his prime (01-08) 52% TS in the postseason. That is not a staggering result for a player whose main value comes from volume scoring. Of course TMac is not a one-trick pony, but still his scoring prowess was his biggest attribute. Frankly there is not one playoff series where TMac has high efficiency vs. quality playoff defense.

The 2003 Pistons had the 4th best defense in the league, a DRTG of 99.9 with Tayshaun Prince on the bench, that's easily a quality playoff defense, in comparison, the 2015 Warriors have 101.4 DRTG

We also know where this is coming from. TMac is a guy who usually shoots a lot of jumpshots. Sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't. This is why consistency over the course of a playoff series was always an issue for TMac.
In the playoffs, he was getting to the rim (and drawing more fouls) + more consistent than the guy that was just voted in...
ORTG by game:
T-Mac - 118 115 124 109 98 107 93
Wade - 66 128 136 84 122 155 108


This is why I feel like TMac is being considered too early right now. He hasn't proven himself as a guy who can sustain high level of play vs quality opponents.


Given that 2003 T-Mac is a massive outlier against what he did in all the other seasons, I don't see why the level of play in these other seasons are that relevant
theonlyclutch's AT FGA-limited team - The Malevolent Eight

PG: 2008 Chauncey Billups/ 2013 Kyle Lowry
SG: 2005 Manu Ginobili/2012 James Harden
SF: 1982 Julius Erving
PF: 2013 Matt Bonner/ 2010 Amir Johnson
C: 1977 Kareem Abdul Jabaar
User avatar
thizznation
Starter
Posts: 2,066
And1: 778
Joined: Aug 10, 2012

Re: Peaks Project #17 

Post#40 » by thizznation » Sat Oct 3, 2015 1:20 am

bastillon wrote:
mischievous wrote:Ballot 1: 03 Tmac

Ballot 2: 90 Ewing

Ballot 3: Undecided but i'm looking at Dirk KD or Kobe. Id like to hear a discussion on the 3. The way i see it, KD clearly had a better regular season than those 2 ever did, but how much do we weigh Kobe and Dirk's superior playoffs runs here? I think it needs some resolve.

My reasoning for Tmac and Ewing is the same as in the previous thread.

Oh and Jerry West too! I can see him on ballot 3.


Why TMac at #1? Isn't a concern for you that he got shutdown by Tayshaun Prince in the playoffs? Ever since Pistons put Prince on him, Magic were losing games by 20 pts with TMac shooting about 35-40% from the field? Isn't that a huge concern for a superstar guard that once he faces a good perimeter defender he gets dismantled?

just looking at those games vs. Prince (IIRC Prince was put on TMac in the 2nd half of G4):
G5: 19 pts, 8-20 FG, 98 ORtg, Orlando 67 pts
G6: 37 pts, 11-28 FG, 107 ORtg, Orlando 88 pts
G7: 21 pts, 7-24 FG, 93 ORtg, Orlando 93 pts

To me this is a worrying trend looking at the context of TMac's entire playoff career. We know that TMac averaged in his prime (01-08) 52% TS in the postseason. That is not a staggering result for a player whose main value comes from volume scoring. Of course TMac is not a one-trick pony, but still his scoring prowess was his biggest attribute. Frankly there is not one playoff series where TMac has high efficiency vs. quality playoff defense. We also know where this is coming from. TMac is a guy who usually shoots a lot of jumpshots. Sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't. This is why consistency over the course of a playoff series was always an issue for TMac.

This is why I feel like TMac is being considered too early right now. He hasn't proven himself as a guy who can sustain high level of play vs quality opponents.


Those piston teams' D were some of the best from that era. You are cherry picking certain stats from certain games from the series and it doesn't seem very fair. Using that pistons series as fuel against T-Mac is not jiving with me.

Return to Player Comparisons