Bos/Por/Min: Lilliard to Bos, Thomas to Minny, Rubio to Portland

[codydaze]

And I agree with DusterBuster, value is probably close between IT and Lillard with Dame having a bit more trade value but when you factor in IT's contract and the fact that you're throwing the BKN pick on top of it, it's an overpay for Boston.

And then on the other hand I don't think that BKN pick makes up the value between Rubio and Lillard. And IT's fit is bad in Minny as someone else mentioned. Pretty bad PG swap for everyone involved.

[DusterBuster]

And I agree with DusterBuster, value is probably close between IT and Lillard with Dame having a bit more trade value but when you factor in IT's contract and the fact that you're throwing the BKN pick on top of it, it's an overpay for Boston.

And then on the other hand I don't think that BKN pick makes up the value between Rubio and Lillard. And IT's fit is bad in Minny as someone else mentioned. Pretty bad PG swap for everyone involved.

Yep, pretty much nailed this one down.

[Andrew McCeltic]

How bout it's an overpay cause Thomas is a better player than Lillard, at best it's a wash. Lillard is only a year younger, and makes 20 million more than Thomas next season. I wouldn't trade Thomas for Lillard straight up, especially considering the cap implications for the Celtics.

Hey whatever you say man. I dont think youll find 5 non-celtics fans on this whole board who think ITs value is remotely close to lillards even with the cheap salary next year, but you can go on believing whatever you want bud. Have fun with that.

IT averages more points on fewer shots, more assists in less minutes, better eFG%, TS%, PER, AST%, BPM, TOV%, WS/48, and VORP. Celtics have won >60% of their games since Thomas got here, Portland has won 50% of their games since Aldridge left. Replacing IT's salary with Lillard's salary basically takes the Celtics out of contention for a max FA. I bet I can find dozens on non Celtics fans that would rather IT and max cap space over Lillard, and countless amounts that would rather IT/BRK17/Max cap space over Lillard.

IT also has the benefit of an offense built around his strengths and compensating for his weaknesses. He's an efficiency miracle, given his size, but he also has great spacing around him and an extremely adept supporting cast - Bradley, Crowder, Horford, Amir, Olynyk are all very smart offensive players who know how to move off and around the ball. Swap Lillard and IT and Lillard's efficiency probably improves, IT's goes down. Tough to say.

And tough to know how to balance salary/performance with this new cap. But yeah, I'd be hesitant to upgrade IT to Lillard, too, given Boston's payroll. I think we'd need compensation for taking on that much extra salary - Wiggins or the MIN 2017 1st, unprotected.

[damecurry]

How bout it's an overpay cause Thomas is a better player than Lillard, at best it's a wash. Lillard is only a year younger, and makes 20 million more than Thomas next season. I wouldn't trade Thomas for Lillard straight up, especially considering the cap implications for the Celtics.

Hey whatever you say man. I dont think youll find 5 non-celtics fans on this whole board who think ITs value is remotely close to lillards even with the cheap salary next year, but you can go on believing whatever you want bud. Have fun with that.

IT averages more points on fewer shots, more assists in less minutes, better eFG%, TS%, PER, AST%, BPM, TOV%, WS/48, and VORP. Celtics have won >60% of their games since Thomas got here, Portland has won 50% of their games since Aldridge left. Replacing IT's salary with Lillard's salary basically takes the Celtics out of contention for a max FA. I bet I can find dozens on non Celtics fans that would rather IT and max cap space over Lillard, and countless amounts that would rather IT/BRK17/Max cap space over Lillard.

Okay, first of all let's disassemble this straw man you're trying to construct. I never said Lillard is worth more than IT/BK 17/Max cap space. I said Lillard was worth way more than the 17 1st/filler, and now I've asserted that Lillard is worth way more than IT alone, I never addressed the 2 being combined, check the previous posts.

Secondly, IT is having an absolute career year in every sense, he has never performed at this level before. Lillard has a much larger and more sustained body of work. Furthermore IT is a year and a half older and 6 inches shorter than Lillard. Not only is he vastly more reliant on his awesome leaping ability and athleticism but he has a shorter time frame he'll be able to maintain that skill. IT is shooting slightly better from 3 this year than lillard but historically this is an anomaly I'd contend has a lot to do with my third point.

Third of all, IT has absolutely the perfect supporting cast and role on a team for him to maximize his performance. He plays with a bunch of off-ball shooter/slashers who can compensate his defensive deficiencies while making any open shots he creates and also not getting in the way of him dominating the ball and offense. This is why he's performing so far beyond his historical averages this year. Lillard has been a far superior player in a variety of scenarios (as second banana to aldridge, as an equal co-star with aldridge, as the primary leader of a team that lost every starter but him.) IT is a slightly better player in 30 games in the perfect situation than Lillard has been in a rough situation without aminu and trying to work ET into the scheme, yes. So if you're judging value solely based on this year then sure I can understand an argument that IT is worth more. But taking not only their past, which obviously favors Dame by a large margin, but they're future as well, also vastly in Dame's favor, I think it's absurd to suggest IT is the more valuable player. Yes his extremely cheap salary next year helps his value, but that's only for next year, after that he has already stated he expects the max, so you'll be paying a 28-31 year old IT 35 million or so while a 27-30 year old Lillard who should age way, way better will be making high 20s/low 30s. So the next 18 months might favor your guy (slightly if at all imo) but the 3 years after that are clearly in my guys favor, and considering that's twice as long of a timeframe, it's a pretty easy choice to me.

[Djh7475]

Crazy hard pass for Boston. IT's contract is a huge reason we not only have the cap space to sign a max contract, but also a bonafide star to attract them. Trading IT, our starting PF, and his immediate backup for Lillard is downright stupid (note I'm not even bringing up the likely top 3 pick in a historically loaded draft). This deal makes us substantially worse this year by robbing us of our entire PF position and the guy that carries our team with established chemistry with his teammates and coach and who already knows our plays and system.

Since this deal undoubtedly makes us worse this season, you would imagine that it was because it would help us big time moving forward. However, this trade is even worse in that regard. We replace IT with essentially the exact same player but a year younger and just slightly less effective by almost every metric, but now we magically have almost no cap space (much less enough cap space to sign a max free agent like we would with IT). Oh, and we lose our most prized asset that would've been our saving grace since we'd have no cap space. Now when people talk about potential Cousins, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and Anthony Davis landing spots, the Celtics won't be on the short list of possibilities to acquire them because they gave up their best asset in order to get worse both short and long term.

Then after a down year with Lillard at the helm, the Celtics have to pay AB and Smart big time raises on top of the likely Olynyk extension this offseason. All of a sudden, the Celtics are stuck as the 3rd seed in the East without the assets or cap space to upgrade their ceiling. This trade is so bad. I am 100% certain the Celtics wouldn't give up IT for Lillard straight up today if that offer were on the table. We are set up perfect to pitch Hayward or Griffin on joining IT, AB, Crowded, Horford, Smart, and a superstar this offseason. I don't see the Celtics giving up IT and the possibility of adding let's say Hayward (he's a more realistic target than Griffin) and Cousins for the privilege to pay a slightly less productive player more than 3x as much as IT.

You can say that we might strike out in Hayward or Griffin, but what do the Celtics have to lose by waiting until this offseason? IT is only getting more dominant as the season goes along (primarily because the starting group finally got healthy) while Portland proves more and more that they were overhyped this offseason. Even if the Celtics strike out in trade talks and free agency, giving up a cheap premier prospect that could end up being better than both IT and Lillard in order to make a lateral move that decimated our cap space seems illogical.

[mikestar]

Interesting idea but the Cs and Blazers may not match up as trading partners right now.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Hey whatever you say man. I dont think youll find 5 non-celtics fans on this whole board who think ITs value is remotely close to lillards even with the cheap salary next year, but you can go on believing whatever you want bud. Have fun with that.

IT averages more points on fewer shots, more assists in less minutes, better eFG%, TS%, PER, AST%, BPM, TOV%, WS/48, and VORP. Celtics have won >60% of their games since Thomas got here, Portland has won 50% of their games since Aldridge left. Replacing IT's salary with Lillard's salary basically takes the Celtics out of contention for a max FA. I bet I can find dozens on non Celtics fans that would rather IT and max cap space over Lillard, and countless amounts that would rather IT/BRK17/Max cap space over Lillard.

Okay, first of all let's disassemble this straw man you're trying to construct. I never said Lillard is worth more than IT/BK 17/Max cap space. I said Lillard was worth way more than the 17 1st/filler, and now I've asserted that Lillard is worth way more than IT alone, I never addressed the 2 being combined, check the previous posts.

Secondly, IT is having an absolute career year in every sense, he has never performed at this level before. Lillard has a much larger and more sustained body of work. Furthermore IT is a year and a half older and 6 inches shorter than Lillard. Not only is he vastly more reliant on his awesome leaping ability and athleticism but he has a shorter time frame he'll be able to maintain that skill. IT is shooting slightly better from 3 this year than lillard but historically this is an anomaly I'd contend has a lot to do with my third point.

Third of all, IT has absolutely the perfect supporting cast and role on a team for him to maximize his performance. He plays with a bunch of off-ball shooter/slashers who can compensate his defensive deficiencies while making any open shots he creates and also not getting in the way of him dominating the ball and offense. This is why he's performing so far beyond his historical averages this year. Lillard has been a far superior player in a variety of scenarios (as second banana to aldridge, as an equal co-star with aldridge, as the primary leader of a team that lost every starter but him.) IT is a slightly better player in 30 games in the perfect situation than Lillard has been in a rough situation without aminu and trying to work ET into the scheme, yes. So if you're judging value solely based on this year then sure I can understand an argument that IT is worth more. But taking not only their past, which obviously favors Dame by a large margin, but they're future as well, also vastly in Dame's favor, I think it's absurd to suggest IT is the more valuable player. Yes his extremely cheap salary next year helps his value, but that's only for next year, after that he has already stated he expects the max, so you'll be paying a 28-31 year old IT 35 million or so while a 27-30 year old Lillard who should age way, way better will be making high 20s/low 30s. So the next 18 months might favor your guy (slightly if at all imo) but the 3 years after that are clearly in my guys favor, and considering that's twice as long of a timeframe, it's a pretty easy choice to me.

Great post. Only thing you missed is that not only does Boston have a great supporting cast, but their coach is absolutely fantastic. Turner owes him a nice new car or something.

That said, IT is one of the more underrated stars in the league though and that should not be lost in a comparison to Lillard, and I totally understand the value and flexibility going forward that his contract gives them this year compared to Lillard.

[spree8]

Bad trade for Boston. Giving up a potential top 3 pick in this studded draft, as well as max cap room for Gordy Hayward, and IT for Dame? Nah...not a good idea.

Imagine:

Josh Jackson
Gordy Hayward
Isaiah Thomas

For

Dame Lillard


?? Ouch!