RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #62

[trex_8063]

Thru post #20:

Alex English - 2 (Clyde Frazier, penbeast0)
Vince Carter - 2 (Joao Saraiva, LABird)
James Harden - 1 (pandrade83)
Dominique Wilkins - 1 (trex_8063)


Last notice; ~15 hours until this goes to runoff.

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[JordansBulls]

Vote: Dominique Wilkins (scoring title, 2x dunk champion, led team to top seed, one of the greatest scorers all time and clutch players in NBA History. Finished 2nd in MVP voting to prime, Hakeem, Magic, Kareem, Moses, Dr J)

2nd Vote: Grant Hill

[dhsilv2]

Vote Tracy McGrady - IMO the best peak left outside of perhaps 15 Harden. 7 all nba's. Of the volume wing scorers I'd say he's on par or better than all defensively and might be the best passer of the group.

Alt is Dominique Wilkins.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #23:

Alex English - 2 (Clyde Frazier, penbeast0)
Vince Carter - 2 (Joao Saraiva, LABird)
Dominique Wilkins - 2 (JordansBulls, trex_8063)
James Harden - 1 (pandrade83)
Tracy McGrady - 1 (dhsilv2)


Eliminating those with one vote each, transfers one secondary vote to Nique. 2ndary votes provide no means to distinguish between Carter and English, so we'll have to initially enter a 3way runoff:

Dominique Wilkins - 3 (dhsilv2, JordansBulls, trex_8063)
Alex English - 2 (Clyde Frazier, penbeast0)
Vince Carter - 2 (Joao Saraiva, LABird)


If your name isn't shown there, please specify your one choice among Wilkins, English, or Carter and reasons why.

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[Outside]

Runoff vote: Dominique Wilkins

In my view, Dominique was more impactful as a scorer and leader of his team, particularly in the playoffs. None of the three players in the runoff had particularly notable playoff success, but Wilkins' best teams had the misfortune of running into the late 80s Celtics and Pistons, who were deeper and better. The next-best scorers he had on those teams were Doc Rivers, Kevin Willis, and Randy Wittman, and while those guys are nice rotation players, that hardly matches up with the rosters the Celtics and Pistons had. Still, Dominique led the Hawks to some good battles with Boston and Detroit, with some particularly epic games against Boston.

English has the next-best playoff resume in my view, but they never seriously challenged the Lakers during that time, even though it was a much easier conference (the Hawks had to contend with multiple powerhouse teams in the East). I also think Wilkins has a better RS peak compared to English.

Carter had some good PS scoring averages during his heyday, but his efficiency was not good. He has multiple postseasons with TS% under 50%. His best year is 2005-06, where he had 29.6 PPG on 55.9 TS% and 26.8 PER in 11 games, but there are multiple postseasons where he performed poorly.

[penbeast0]

Runoff vote: Dominique Wilkins

In my view, Dominique was more impactful as a scorer and leader of his team, particularly in the playoffs. ...

English has the next-best playoff resume in my view, but they never seriously challenged the Lakers during that time, even though it was a much easier conference (the Hawks had to contend with multiple powerhouse teams in the East). I also think Wilkins has a better RS peak compared to English.

Carter had some good PS scoring averages during his heyday, but his efficiency was not good....

You are picking Wilkins based on beating playoff teams and efficiency? Nique could never made it past the 2nd round on the rare occasions he won a series at all, losing every time to Boston (and all but one series with Milwaukee and Detroit).

Spoiler:

83 lost to Boston, 84 lost to Milwaukee, 85 missed playoffs, 86 (beat Det) lost to Boston, 87 (beat IND) lost to Det, 88 (beat Mil), lost to Boston, 89 lost to Milwaukee, 90 missed playoffs, 91 lost to Detroit, 92 missed playoffs, 93 lost to Chicago. They weren't ever much of a playoff contender.

And in terms of efficiency, Nique was a playoff dog as was Carter, which is one main reason I don't have either of them up with English.

Limiting Carter to 15 years to match Nique and Wilkins . . . .
All three averaged over 20 regular season ppg for their 15 year careers, Nique slightly more at 24.1
Nique and Carter had a TS% of .536 and .538 respectively; English a bit higher at .550.

For the playoffs, English closes most of the gap with Nique (24 to 25 with Carter up to 22) but . . .
English improves his efficiency in the playoffs slightly to .556; Nique and Carter both drop significantly to .510 and .509 respectively.

ENGLISH is the clear better playoff performer; Nique got a lot of press for shooting a lot against the weak defense of Larry Bird but his playoff performance is lackluster at best.

[pandrade83]

[Heart says Nique but that's not the right way to go. From a longevity standpoint, I give Nique credit for 10.5 prime seasons, with a useful pre/post-prime. I think English deserves credit for 9 impact seasons with strong pre/post prime & 9.5 for Carter - obviously strong pre/post-prime as well.

So from a longevity standpoint, things are close enough where Nique would get the edge on a tie-breaker; Carter would lose a tie-breaker due to poor intangibles.

Top-10 WS from the group collectively:

1) Carter '01
2) Nique '87
3) Carter '00
4) Nique '91
5) Nique '90
6) Nique '86
7) Nique '93
8) Carter '07
9) Nique '89
10) English '83

Nique grades out best followed by Carter with a strong peak.

Top 10 BPM from the group collectively:

1) Carter '01
2) Carter '05
3) Nique '87
4) Nique '91
5) English '83
6) Carter '00
7) Carter '06
8) Carter '07
9) English '82
10) Carter '02

Carter decisively takes this one; it's looking like it's hard to say that Carter didn't have the best peak - which if I'm being honest, I'm aligned with.

Wowy favors Nique > Carter; English very far off.

Playoffs
Nique: 27/7/3, 51% TS, 9.9% TOV Economy
English: 24/6/4, 56% TS, 8.7% TOV Economy
Carter (weighted down by substantial # of post-prime games): 18-5-3, 52% TS (buoyed by the post-prime data ironically), 9.8% TOV economy

English takes the cake here. Everyone remembers Nique's '88 duel with Bird, but there's some really brutal shooting performances lumped in there. Carter's prime playoff performances are impressive - but it begs the question why weren't there more of them - which speaks to the fact that he wasted a material portion of his prime.

Bringing it altogether . . .

The case for English rests entirely on playoff numbers. He was an efficient scorer who brought strong turnover economy OR solid rebounding - never both and his #'s are in general inflated by pace.
You could very easily make the case for Carter - I feel like the data supports my opinion that he had the highest peak of the bunch. However, qualitiatively, it really bugs me that he threw away a significant portion of his prime in Toronto and that translates into Nique being IN the playoffs more. Like Nique, he has some brutal shooting performances in the playoffs as well; and of the 3, Nique played in the hardest conference during his prime without a doubt.
Nique grades out close to Carter on regular season metrics - edge to Carter but what keeps crawling up for me is the fact that Carter threw away too much of his prime - leading to many seasons where he didn't even make the playoffs. Factor in an extra prime season for Nique & my runoff vote is narrowly:

Dominique Wilkins

[dhsilv2]

I found the RAPM to be pretty unreliable regarding Carter vs. McGrady. To wit:

97-14 RAPM:
#42 Vince Carter
#123 Tracy McGrady

97-14 RAPM points above average:
#13 Vince Carter
#53 Tracy McGrady

91-14 xRAPM
#22 Tracy McGrady
#64 Vince Carter

91-14 xRAPM points above average:
#22 Tracy McGrady
#48 Vince Carter

The odd thing? Neither one played before 1997. So with basically the same set of data, you're getting wildly different results even with a very large sample. Does anyone know anything about the formulas for why that would be?

xRAPM uses box score priors. Doesn't make any sense to me that Tmac's box scores are THAT much better.

The difference between #22 and #48 isn't THAT extreme, I don't think. And let's be real here - the reason McGrady hasn't been put in yet has nothing to do with stats.

I'm more so talking about how Carter and Tmac flipped spots on RAPM and xRAPM, that seems pretty huge given that the only difference should be adding a box score prior.

[dhsilv2]

Runoff vote: Dominique Wilkins

In my view, Dominique was more impactful as a scorer and leader of his team, particularly in the playoffs. ...

English has the next-best playoff resume in my view, but they never seriously challenged the Lakers during that time, even though it was a much easier conference (the Hawks had to contend with multiple powerhouse teams in the East). I also think Wilkins has a better RS peak compared to English.

Carter had some good PS scoring averages during his heyday, but his efficiency was not good....

You are picking Wilkins based on beating playoff teams and efficiency? Nique could never made it past the 2nd round on the rare occasions he won a series at all, losing every time to Boston (and all but one series with Milwaukee and Detroit).

Spoiler:

83 lost to Boston, 84 lost to Milwaukee, 85 missed playoffs, 86 (beat Det) lost to Boston, 87 (beat IND) lost to Det, 88 (beat Mil), lost to Boston, 89 lost to Milwaukee, 90 missed playoffs, 91 lost to Detroit, 92 missed playoffs, 93 lost to Chicago. They weren't ever much of a playoff contender.

And in terms of efficiency, Nique was a playoff dog as was Carter, which is one main reason I don't have either of them up with English.

Limiting Carter to 15 years to match Nique and Wilkins . . . .
All three averaged over 20 regular season ppg for their 15 year careers, Nique slightly more at 24.1
Nique and Carter had a TS% of .536 and .538 respectively; English a bit higher at .550.

For the playoffs, English closes most of the gap with Nique (24 to 25 with Carter up to 22) but . . .
English improves his efficiency in the playoffs slightly to .556; Nique and Carter both drop significantly to .510 and .509 respectively.

ENGLISH is the clear better playoff performer; Nique got a lot of press for shooting a lot against the weak defense of Larry Bird but his playoff performance is lackluster at best.

call me crazy, but with English I can't help but just discount everything offensively about those nugget teams. They were like watching an allstar game in the worst possible sense (as if there's any good about an allstar game). Perhaps I'm just a simpleton, but I struggle to put English's numbers into a context where I can compare him with other players.

Take his 83 season. 28.4 PPG on a team that averaged 123.2 and gave up 122.6. What am I supposed to take away from that?

81-84 they scored and gave up the more points in the league. 85 they were second to last in points given up.

So I think you're right on paper about English being better in the playoffs, though I will point out the west was imo pretty horrible defensively as a whole in that era. But I still struggle with if English's offensive numbers were not more a function of a system than him.

Thus I'm left looking at WS and VORP and seeing him rather far behind the other two and I feel more comfortable defaulting to that than looking at his TS%'s which seem rather difficult to contextualize. Now full disclosure but I haven't spent much time watching him as well for me I'd rather watch a spurs pistons 75 to 70 game than lakers nuggets in the 130's.

[Outside]

Runoff vote: Dominique Wilkins

In my view, Dominique was more impactful as a scorer and leader of his team, particularly in the playoffs. ...

English has the next-best playoff resume in my view, but they never seriously challenged the Lakers during that time, even though it was a much easier conference (the Hawks had to contend with multiple powerhouse teams in the East). I also think Wilkins has a better RS peak compared to English.

Carter had some good PS scoring averages during his heyday, but his efficiency was not good....

You are picking Wilkins based on beating playoff teams and efficiency? Nique could never made it past the 2nd round on the rare occasions he won a series at all, losing every time to Boston (and all but one series with Milwaukee and Detroit).

Spoiler:

83 lost to Boston, 84 lost to Milwaukee, 85 missed playoffs, 86 (beat Det) lost to Boston, 87 (beat IND) lost to Det, 88 (beat Mil), lost to Boston, 89 lost to Milwaukee, 90 missed playoffs, 91 lost to Detroit, 92 missed playoffs, 93 lost to Chicago. They weren't ever much of a playoff contender.

And in terms of efficiency, Nique was a playoff dog as was Carter, which is one main reason I don't have either of them up with English.

Limiting Carter to 15 years to match Nique and Wilkins . . . .
All three averaged over 20 regular season ppg for their 15 year careers, Nique slightly more at 24.1
Nique and Carter had a TS% of .536 and .538 respectively; English a bit higher at .550.

For the playoffs, English closes most of the gap with Nique (24 to 25 with Carter up to 22) but . . .
English improves his efficiency in the playoffs slightly to .556; Nique and Carter both drop significantly to .510 and .509 respectively.

ENGLISH is the clear better playoff performer; Nique got a lot of press for shooting a lot against the weak defense of Larry Bird but his playoff performance is lackluster at best.

I give Wilkins a lot of credit for his performance in the Hawks 3-4 series loss to the Celtics in 1988. Your quote I bolded above is an unfair characterization of his performance in that series, not to mention the Celtics' defense. His performance in game 7 alone, in Boston Garden, was excellent -- 47 points on 19 of 33 FG and 8 of 9 FT in a two-point loss. Dominique wasn't just going against Bird; he was going against the entire Celtic defense, which had the top DRtg in the league that season. It was a really close series against a formidable opponent who pulled out both games 6 and 7 by two points. That's what I mean when I said Wilkins was more impactful as a scorer and leader of his team in the playoffs.

Wilkins scored 219 points in that series. Next best on the Hawks was Doc Rivers with 123, then Kevin Willis with 110, then all the way down to Randy Wittman with 62. For Boston, Bird had 185, McHale 174, Parish 117, Ainge 100, and Dennis Johnson 100. Wilkins had to carry that offensive load, and he did it against the best defense in the league.

The Hawks' best teams at that time were beaten by Boston and Detroit, teams with far better rosters and teams that either had won or would win titles. The East was the significantly better conference at that time.

The only opponent for the Nuggets comparable to the Celtics and the Pistons was the Lakers. Please point me to a series where English pushed that level of opponent to the brink. Maybe there's one there that I'm not aware of.

[pandrade83]

I meant that the integration of box score data into the data-set in general is going to produce a more favorable outcome for McGrady (though I haven't familiarized myself with the xRAPM technique as much as the others in full disclosure).

[pandrade83]

I give Wilkins a lot of credit for his performance in the Hawks 3-4 series loss to the Celtics in 1988. Your quote I bolded above is an unfair characterization of his performance in that series, not to mention the Celtics' defense. His performance in game 7 alone, in Boston Garden, was excellent -- 47 points on 19 of 33 FG and 8 of 9 FT in a two-point loss. Dominique wasn't just going against Bird; he was going against the entire Celtic defense, which had the top DRtg in the league that season. It was a really close series against a formidable opponent who pulled out both games 6 and 7 by two points. That's what I mean when I said Wilkins was more impactful as a scorer and leader of his team in the playoffs.

Wilkins scored 219 points in that series. Next best on the Hawks was Doc Rivers with 123, then Kevin Willis with 110, then all the way down to Randy Wittman with 62. For Boston, Bird had 185, McHale 174, Parish 117, Ainge 100, and Dennis Johnson 100. Wilkins had to carry that offensive load, and he did it against the best defense in the league.

The Hawks' best teams at that time were beaten by Boston and Detroit, teams with far better rosters and teams that either had won or would win titles. The East was the significantly better conference at that time.

The only opponent for the Nuggets comparable to the Celtics and the Pistons was the Lakers. Please point me to a series where English pushed that level of opponent to the brink. Maybe there's one there that I'm not aware of.

I supported Wilkins but from a factual standpoint, I think you got offense & defense flip-flopped. 1st in offense; 17/23 in defense in '88.

[Outside]

I give Wilkins a lot of credit for his performance in the Hawks 3-4 series loss to the Celtics in 1988. Your quote I bolded above is an unfair characterization of his performance in that series, not to mention the Celtics' defense. His performance in game 7 alone, in Boston Garden, was excellent -- 47 points on 19 of 33 FG and 8 of 9 FT in a two-point loss. Dominique wasn't just going against Bird; he was going against the entire Celtic defense, which had the top DRtg in the league that season. It was a really close series against a formidable opponent who pulled out both games 6 and 7 by two points. That's what I mean when I said Wilkins was more impactful as a scorer and leader of his team in the playoffs.

Wilkins scored 219 points in that series. Next best on the Hawks was Doc Rivers with 123, then Kevin Willis with 110, then all the way down to Randy Wittman with 62. For Boston, Bird had 185, McHale 174, Parish 117, Ainge 100, and Dennis Johnson 100. Wilkins had to carry that offensive load, and he did it against the best defense in the league.

The Hawks' best teams at that time were beaten by Boston and Detroit, teams with far better rosters and teams that either had won or would win titles. The East was the significantly better conference at that time.

The only opponent for the Nuggets comparable to the Celtics and the Pistons was the Lakers. Please point me to a series where English pushed that level of opponent to the brink. Maybe there's one there that I'm not aware of.

I supported Wilkins but from a factual standpoint, I think you got offense & defense flip-flopped. 1st in offense; 17/23 in defense in '88.

You're right. I don't know what happened there. I had so many BBR windows open while writing that post, maybe I looked at Boston's 1985-86 season. That point was extra ammo for my argument though, not the basis for it. Thanks for the correction.

[pandrade83]

Been there, done that

[trex_8063]

Thru post #34:

Dominique Wilkins - 5 (pandrade83, Outside, dhsilv2, JordansBulls, trex_8063)
Alex English - 2 (Clyde Frazier, penbeast0)
Vince Carter - 2 (Joao Saraiva, LABird)


Wilkins holds the majority, even in a 3way runoff. Calling it for Nique. Will have the next up in a moment.

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