RealGM Top 100 Project #68

[dhsilv2]

I feel like there’s a better argument for Robert Horry over T-Mac than there is for Sam Jones over Moncrief.

On offense, Jones and Moncrief are pretty close to equal whereas Jones as an average defender and Moncrief was probably the best perimeter defender in the entire league.

Meanwhile, Horry was average on offense while T-Mac was one of the best in the entire league offensively, but Horry did at least have an edge on D instead of being equal to T-Mac on that end.

Furthermore, Horry played equal competition to T-Mac instead of getting the benefit of easier competition like Jones and won 7 rings across multiple teams in a 28-team league instead of following Russell for 10 in an 8-team league.

I mean, I’m all for incorporating team success when it’s close, especially when you lead a team as the top guy, but playing 3rd banana on a loaded team in an 8-team league doesn’t make an average defender better than a back-to-back DPOY all other things equal.

It was 9 teams when he was at his best in 65 lol.

All seriousness that's fine if you don't value winning as others do. I think a player can move up multiple tiers based on it myself. Just like I will take an all time peak year over 4-5 allstar years.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Kevin Johnson

KJ is to me someone who I wouldn't hesitate for a second in drafting to be my franchise player if I were confident about health. The health issues drop a good deal of course, but I'd take him over Jones without hesitation.

[Dr Positivity]

Vote Sam Jones

He was arguably the best offensive player of Celtics dynasty and had huge big game performances. If he cared more about stats he probably could've put up bigger numbers. Longevity is good and an advantage over some other candidates like Moncrief

2nd: Kevin Johnson

[penbeast0]

Vote: Kevin Johnson

KJ is to me someone who I wouldn't hesitate for a second in drafting to be my franchise player if I were confident about health. The health issues drop a good deal of course, but I'd take him over Jones without hesitation.

Would you take his 5 year prime over Moncrief's?

[trex_8063]

Vote: Kevin Johnson

KJ is to me someone who I wouldn't hesitate for a second in drafting to be my franchise player if I were confident about health. The health issues drop a good deal of course, but I'd take him over Jones without hesitation.

Would you take his 5 year prime over Moncrief's?

I know you weren't asking me, but just to be clear: KJ's prime wasn't a mere 5 years (as Sid's was). KJ's career isn't really any longer in terms of total seasons/games/minutes.....but his prime was definitely longer (if often injury-hit).

KJ's prime runs NINE seasons ('89-'97), amounting to 599 rs games and 21,741 minutes (vs 381 rs games and 14,066 minutes for Moncrief). I'm very very comfortably taking KJ's full prime over that of Moncrief, if that's what your question is meant to be asking.

If, otoh, you just want to know whether one would take KJ's best 5-year span over Sid's best 5........perhaps not for that (though it's close/debatable, imo).

[penbeast0]

Vote: Kevin Johnson

KJ is to me someone who I wouldn't hesitate for a second in drafting to be my franchise player if I were confident about health. The health issues drop a good deal of course, but I'd take him over Jones without hesitation.

Would you take his 5 year prime over Moncrief's?

I know you weren't asking me, but just to be clear: KJ's prime wasn't a mere 5 years (as Sid's was). KJ's career isn't really any longer in terms of total seasons/games/minutes.....but his prime was definitely longer (if often injury-hit).

KJ's prime runs NINE seasons ('89-'97), amounting to 599 rs games and 21,741 minutes (vs 381 rs games and 14,066 minutes for Moncrief). I'm very very comfortably taking KJ's full prime over that of Moncrief, if that's what your question is meant to be asking.

If, otoh, you just want to know whether one would take KJ's best 5-year span over Sid's best 5........perhaps not for that (though it's close/debatable, imo).

I'm happy to get any feedback though, yes, I was asking for best 5 years. I consider Sid's impact during his prime to be considerably higher; he was not dissimilar in offensive impact and his attitude and ability to shut down opposing scorers turned Milwaukee into a top 3 defense in the league despite a rotating pool of multiple centers (Lanier, Lister, Mokeski, Catchings, Lanier, Breuer, etc.).

And, KJ only had those 4 good years then was in and out with with a lot of partial seasons with injuries, really only two more seasons with 60+games ... about the same number of complete seasons as Moncrief though KJ's partial seasons were more valuable than Moncrief's post-injury partial seasons.

[Clyde Frazier]

Runoff vote - Sam Jones

Johnson had a solid 4 year stretch as a great player, but over the next 4 seasons he failed to put together close to a complete season. That durability puts him down a notch for me. He did rebound with 1 good year after that, but soon after was on his way out.

I’m a little more impressed with jones’ consistency and durability throughout his career. He also has a clear (albeit close) longevity edge. He interestingly performed better (even from a per 36 min standpoint) as the 60s went on where players from the 50s tend to trend downward.

Overall as he entered his prime, he was a consistent playoff performer, even elevating his game many times as a go to scorer for the celtics. In the 63 and 64 championship runs combined, he put up 23.5 PPG on 54.7% TS (league avg was 48.9% in that span).

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Kevin Johnson

KJ is to me someone who I wouldn't hesitate for a second in drafting to be my franchise player if I were confident about health. The health issues drop a good deal of course, but I'd take him over Jones without hesitation.

Would you take his 5 year prime over Moncrief's?

Pretty debatable. How would you rate their relative facilitation skills?

[dhsilv2]

Anyone have thoughts on KJ's 93 playoff run? I know he was hurt and missed games that year, but my memory isn't great on that run. Why were his advanced stats SO bad? Between a negative BPM and a sub .1 WS/48, that's down right awful by his standards. A real shame given that was his one legit title chance.

[Tribe]

The worst thing to come out of the 3 point chucking era is that it's leading people to believe Reggie miller was a top 50 player

#42? Lmaooo

[penbeast0]

KJ was a guy who had the ball in his hands a lot more as the primary playmaker for his team; Sid normally worked mainly off ball, so KJ should have appreciably higher assist totals. Relative to their peers, KJ was top 5-8 range I would guess (guys like Magic, Tim Hardaway, Mark Jackson etc. ahead of him in that regard, if not his caliber in overall ability). Sid was probably 8-10 in terms of facilitation from the SG spot, not the creator that KJ was but a good ballhandler and willing passer who worked the ball well and could handle the PG spot. So, yeah, clear edge to KJ but not by the margins that just looking at assists would suggest.

[trex_8063]

Would you take his 5 year prime over Moncrief's?

I know you weren't asking me, but just to be clear: KJ's prime wasn't a mere 5 years (as Sid's was). KJ's career isn't really any longer in terms of total seasons/games/minutes.....but his prime was definitely longer (if often injury-hit).

KJ's prime runs NINE seasons ('89-'97), amounting to 599 rs games and 21,741 minutes (vs 381 rs games and 14,066 minutes for Moncrief). I'm very very comfortably taking KJ's full prime over that of Moncrief, if that's what your question is meant to be asking.

If, otoh, you just want to know whether one would take KJ's best 5-year span over Sid's best 5........perhaps not for that (though it's close/debatable, imo).

I'm happy to get any feedback though, yes, I was asking for best 5 years. I consider Sid's impact during his prime to be considerably higher; he was not dissimilar in offensive impact and his attitude and ability to shut down opposing scorers turned Milwaukee into a top 3 defense in the league despite a rotating pool of multiple centers (Lanier, Lister, Mokeski, Catchings, Lanier, Breuer, etc.).

And, KJ only had those 4 good years then was in and out with with a lot of partial seasons with injuries, really only two more seasons with 60+games ... about the same number of complete seasons as Moncrief though KJ's partial seasons were more valuable than Moncrief's post-injury partial seasons.

fwiw, here's some with/without data for Moncrief:


‘80: 46-31 (.597) with, 3-2 (.600) without
‘81: 60-20 (.750) with, 0-2 without
‘82: 54-26 (.675) with, 1-1 (.500) without
‘83: 48-28 (.632) with, 3-3 (.500) without
‘84: 48-31 (.608) with, 2-1 (.667) without
‘85: 54-19 (.740) with, 5-4 (.556) without
‘86: 50-23 (.685) with, 7-2 (.778) without
‘87: 25-14 (.641) with, 25-18 (.581) without
‘88: 27-29 (.482) with, 15-11 (.577) without
‘89: 35-27 (.565) with, 14-6 (.700) without
‘91: 39-33 (.542) with, 4-6 (.400) without

TOTAL: 486-281 (.634) with, 79-56 (.585) without; avg +4.0 wins added per season
‘82-’86: 254-127 (.667) with, 18-11 (.621) without; avg +3.8 wins added per season


‘84: 106.3 ORtg, 103.3 DRtg, +3.85 SRS without. 107.9 ORtg (+1.6), 103.6 DRtg (+0.3), +4.05 (+0.20) SRS with.
‘85: 107.0 ORtg, 104.4 DRtg, +0.49 SRS without. 110.9 ORtg (+3.9), 103.5 DRtg (-0.9), +7.45 SRS (+6.96) with.
‘86: 113.8 ORtg, 103.8 DRtg, +8.91 SRS without. 111.1 ORtg (-2.7), 102.6 DRtg (-1.2), +8.66 SRS (-0.25) with.

Avg of having Moncrief ‘84-’86, NOT weighted for games missed or played
+0.9 ORtg
-0.6 DRtg
+2.30 SRS
Avg of having Moncrief ‘84-’86, weighted for games missed
+0.7 ORtg
-0.9 DRtg
+2.90 SRS
Avg of having Moncrief ‘84-’86, weighted for games played
+1.0 ORtg
-0.6 DRtg
+2.25 SRS



With the advanced game log data only covering three seasons of Moncrief's prime (21 total missed games), it's obviously still a bit noisy. But fwiw, what we have is not at all supportive of Moncrief being a similar [to KJ] impact OFFENSIVE player [or even particularly close], and in fact isn't exactly suggestive that he's more impactful overall (refer to my post #6 itt for the data on KJ).

[penbeast0]

Well, Sid's backup was Ricky Pierce with Nelson using the team's 3rd most effective offensive player as big minute 6th man. Another problem with that analysis is that from watching the Bucks, I remember they had a culture of in your face, swarming, highly effective defense, from 1-12 (with the possible exception of a couple of their centers who had knee problems or didn't move well, mainly Lanier, Mokeski, and Breuer). The culture was created by Moncrief's lead I felt . . . I know I tend to credit players like Russell, Moncrief, etc. with a strong degree of defensive gravity which may not be reflected in their on/off but it is because they create a defensive culture on their teams which carries over. It could also be a great coach, but neither Auerbach nor Nelson had that kind of defensive impact over the rest of their careers or before/after those particular players took the team lead.

This is why I don't devalue Moncrief's defensive impact because the Buck's great defense lasted one year after his injury (with Pressey and Pierce having career years) and then rapidly fading back to mediocrity. It's the leadership role in creating the team culture in my mind. One reason why my strongest defensive take on players is the eye test rather than a more objective standard.

Again, certainly subjective on my part, but there's a reason behind it.

[trex_8063]

Well, Sid's backup was Ricky Pierce with Nelson using the team's 3rd most effective offensive player as big minute 6th man. Another problem with that analysis is that from watching the Bucks, I remember they had a culture of in your face, swarming, highly effective defense, from 1-12 (with the possible exception of a couple of their centers who had knee problems or didn't move well, mainly Lanier, Mokeski, and Breuer). The culture was created by Moncrief's lead I felt.....

Fair point wrt Sid's back-up. Was never much of a good back-up PG in PHX, though they did have a prime/near-prime Hornacek from '89-'92 (he could fill small stretches at the PG); and fwiw aging (but cagey) Danny Ainge from '93-'95 (more combo guard than PG, but not a bad back-up guard at all, even at that stage in his career).
wrt the second point, I always had the impression that KJ was the emotional leader of the Suns, too (at least up thru '92).

[trex_8063]

Thru post #34:

Sam Jones - 5 (Clyde Frazier, Dr Positivity, dhsilv2, Outside, penbeast0)
Kevin Johnson - 4 (pandrade83, Doctor MJ, LABird, trex_8063)


Just 1-2 hours left for anyone else who wants to chime in.

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[trex_8063]

Calling it for Sam. Will have the next up in a minute.