RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 (Tony Parker)

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#21 » by Clyde Frazier » Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:39 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
Based on your name, I'm guessing you & I share the misfortune of rooting for the Knicks.

What are your thoughts on the Melo era?


When my vote for carmelo comes up soon, i'll delve into this further, but there's one common theme with him as a knick that's routinely downplayed:

Every season outside of 12-13 (in shape felton, 1 foot in retirement kidd, prigioni), the knicks had a bottom 5 PG rotation in the league. When he was traded to NY mid season in 10-11, he did have billups. However, billups got hurt in game 1 of the playoffs, starting the trend of disastrous PG rotations almost every season. Melo had the most success with PGs who kept the ball moving, allowing him to play within the flow of the offense, establishing himself as an elite spot up shooter. This was the blueprint for success, and knicks management failed him in this regard. The ball stopping mainly came when there wasn't anyone else to make plays for others.


I lived in Louisville at the time of that '13 season and was able to go to a lot of the series against the Pacers. Maybe seeing it in person vs. TV creates a bias - totally willing to be open to that possibility - but I felt like Melo stagnated & held the ball too much in that series & it contributed to the defeat (along with Hibbert totally dominating Chandler). I walked away thinking PG13 was the best player in the series.


I'm not trying to paint a picture of melo never holding the ball too long. However, again this happens when there aren't other players making plays or in that series just able to score at all. Kidd didn't hit a shot for the rest of the playoffs, JR was awful and Chandler had some "undisclosed illness" that series and did just about nothing on both ends.

The disastrous PG rotations almost every season played a major role in hindering his success in NY. Probably even more so as he aged and lost some of his athleticism.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#22 » by Ainosterhaspie » Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:50 pm

How is Dennis Rodman not on this list yet? I can't vote, but hopefully someone who can can do the right thing and vote for him.

5x champion.
8x all defensive team
2x DPOY
In the conversation for best rebounder ever.
Key player on perhaps the greatest team ever.
Key player on only team to beat Jordan in three playoff series.


Yes he isn't a scorer, but he is tremendously valuable as a glue guy who can seamlessly integrate with just about any team you may wish to construct, and be a huge part of the team's success. His greatness is in some ways his not being a scorer. He maximizes other areas of the game which are indespensible when it comes to building a championship team.

This list has progressed far enough that we are no longer dealing with guys who had significant success as the main guy. There are a bunch of alphas on the list already who never had meaningful team success, and not just because they were perpetually in bad situations. We are dealing with second and third tier players for championship teams, if even that, who were not even remotely close to having the same level of team success as Rodman.

I would not hesitate for a moment in taking Rodman over several of the players on this list Bosh and Westbrook being two that immediately spring to mind. The link below has extensive arguments for Roman's greatness and it is only a tiny portion of the author's overall argument. Please voters change your votes for Rodman. He needs to be on this list already.

https://skepticalsports.com/the-case-for-dennis-rodman-part-44b-the-finale-or-rodman-v-jordan-2/

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#23 » by dhsilv2 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:20 pm

Ainosterhaspie wrote:How is Dennis Rodman not on this list yet? I can't vote, but hopefully someone who can can do the right thing and vote for him.

5x champion.
8x all defensive team
2x DPOY
In the conversation for best rebounder ever.
Key player on perhaps the greatest team ever.
Key player on only team to beat Jordan in three playoff series.


Yes he isn't a scorer, but he is tremendously valuable as a glue guy who can seamlessly integrate with just about any team you may wish to construct, and be a huge part of the team's success. His greatness is in some ways his not being a scorer. He maximizes other areas of the game which are indespensible when it comes to building a championship team.

This list has progressed far enough that we are no longer dealing with guys who had significant success as the main guy. There are a bunch of alphas on the list already who never had meaningful team success, and not just because they were perpetually in bad situations. We are dealing with second and third tier players for championship teams, if even that, who were not even remotely close to having the same level of team success as Rodman.

I would not hesitate for a moment in taking Rodman over several of the players on this list Bosh and Westbrook being two that immediately spring to mind. The link below has extensive arguments for Roman's greatness and it is only a tiny portion of the author's overall argument. Please voters change your votes for Rodman. He needs to be on this list already.

https://skepticalsports.com/the-case-for-dennis-rodman-part-44b-the-finale-or-rodman-v-jordan-2/

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Rodman is on the horizon, but why take him over say Ben Wallace? He was a head case and had real problems with the spurs. He struggled with injuries and honestly Toni was likely the 3rd guy on the bulls, especially after 96.

All honesty I'll be debating Horace Grant over Rodman when the time comes. I think both will at least get good consideration here.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#24 » by Ainosterhaspie » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:47 pm

Rodman is a better rebounder than Wallace by a long shot. The article I posted argues he is the best rebounder ever and by a wide margin, yes even better than Wilt and Russell. Rodman is also a significantly better free throw shooter than Wallace who was a terrible free throw shooter. Rodman had a higher shooting percentage as well, scored more points per game and had more assists per game.

Rodman ranks number one with a large gap to number two in win percentage differential, something the author of the article I linked to discusses in detail, which is an examination of the difference in a team's winning percentage when the player plays compared to when he doesn't. Wallace is #196 on that list.

The Bulls from 91-93 with Grant had a better version of Jordan and Pippen than the 96-98 Bulls with Rodman had, yet the 96 Bulls were the team from those two groups that is the best contender for all time great team. Grant's scoring is better than Rodman's but Rodman's rebounding is far superior to Grant's. Rodman was all NBA and DPOY 2x, Grant 0. Rodman was 1st defensive team 7 times, Grant 0. Rodman was 2nd defensive team 1 time, Grant 4. Rodman has more all star appearances 2-1. Rodman was so much better at role player stuff that the moderate scoring edge Grant has doesn't matter. Rodman has the better head to head record in the playoffs (3-1)despite to opposing team having two guys who rank ahead of the best guy on his team on the all time list. I'm not counting the Magic/Bulls series Rodman's team won since Grant was out injured.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#25 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:42 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:Primary Vote: Larry Nance
Alternate: Shawn Marion

....


But Nance was a quiet guy who sometimes disappeared on the court;


Ironically, one of the reasons I took Nance over Marion is Marion's relative disappearance in the playoffs. It's backed up by data too - Nance has him beat in PER, WS/48, BPM.


I know it's a problem for Marion, not a problem for Nance?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#26 » by pandrade83 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:15 am

penbeast0 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
But Nance was a quiet guy who sometimes disappeared on the court;


Ironically, one of the reasons I took Nance over Marion is Marion's relative disappearance in the playoffs. It's backed up by data too - Nance has him beat in PER, WS/48, BPM.


I know it's a problem for Marion, not a problem for Nance?


Not to the same extent. Excluding his rookie year in the playoffs, Nance generates 17-8-3, 2 blocks, a steal, just 1.6 TO pg & 58.2% TS. That's basically who he is. He also led the whole playoffs in blocks in '92. There's series where he could've done better (like '90 when he was fighting injuries) but he doesn't have the drop-off Marion has for sure.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#27 » by penbeast0 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:30 am

Thanks
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#28 » by trex_8063 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:11 am

Ainosterhaspie wrote:How is Dennis Rodman not on this list yet? I can't vote, but hopefully someone who can can do the right thing and vote for him.

5x champion.
8x all defensive team
2x DPOY
In the conversation for best rebounder ever.
Key player on perhaps the greatest team ever.
Key player on only team to beat Jordan in three playoff series.


Yes he isn't a scorer, but he is tremendously valuable as a glue guy who can seamlessly integrate with just about any team you may wish to construct, and be a huge part of the team's success. His greatness is in some ways his not being a scorer. He maximizes other areas of the game which are indespensible when it comes to building a championship team.


Rodman does bring a lot of value, in a variety of ways. He'd be reasonable around now, and I don't doubt he'll have serious traction soon. Couple critiques I'd mention wrt to Rodman, though.....

There's a general rhetoric about Rodman that you'll frequently hear spouted: that he provides GOAT-level rebounding and GOAT-level PF defense. But outside of perhaps 1-2 seasons (circa-1992), that is simply untrue. He otherwise provided either GOAT-level rebounding or GOAT-level PF defense.....but not both at the same time.
Many of his "rebound-centric" years came at the expense of defense: he would often give only token contests (if any) to mid-range and outside shots (opting instead to drift toward the rim to be in position to rebound), or even simply leave his man alone as he wandered near the paint area and again move toward the rim when the shot goes up.

This was particularly noticeable [for me, anyway] during part of his time in San Antonio. Not to totally cherry-pick, but his defense in the '95 WCF was, frankly, outright bad. He was frequently going rogue and leaving Robert Horry alone, not bothering to track him along the perimeter at all, or contest his outside shot. Bear in mind this is one of the years the 3pt line was 22', and Horry was a dangerous 37.9% 3pt% that year; but you'd think it was Andre Roberson out there by the way Rodman ignored him, practically turning Horry into an All-Star for that series: Horry averaged 10.2 ppg @ 55.6% TS (with the 37.9% 3pt% on 3.5 3PA/g) in the rs, with 3.4 apg and 1.9 topg.......in the series against SA (with Rodman being the primary defender guarding him in the series), Horry averaged 14.5 ppg @ 58.3% TS (despite actually shooting poor at the FT-line), dropping 42.5% on 6.7 3PA/g, with 2.7 apg and just 1.0 topg.

SA lost the series 4-2. They lost game 1 by a single point; with Houston down 93-92, Horry hit a WIDE open 18-footer with 6.5 seconds remaining after Rodman had left him [like literally 5-6 seconds earlier in the play] and made no attempt to recover him after. I did a play-by-play of that game and 1-2 other games in the series (I think one of them was G6) a year or so ago; there were actually quite a few similar defensive possessions for Rodman.
SA lost game 6 by 5 points; Horry scored 22 on 63.5% TS in that one (6 of 11 from trey).

Let me be clear that I'm not trying to paint Rodman as a bad defender. I'm merely pointing out that his good defensive reputation wasn't consistently earned, particularly in those years he was having those GOAT-level rebounding numbers (and in the above instance, his failings occurred at pretty much the worst possible time). SIDE NOTE: I actually think he was probably more valuable on the OFFENSIVE end than the defensive through the late stages of his career (in Chicago and after, possibly in SA, too) due to his offensive rebounding. RAPM supports this, fwiw.


And that series also illustrates another concern which rubs against the statement that he integrates seamlessly with any team. Rodman is an emotional and eccentric guy with more than his share of demons. And in that series he had an unprofessional utter meltdown (again: worst possible time): not coming to team huddles, ignoring coach and teammates, making disdainful gestures to his team, and largely making a public spectacle of his discontent. At that place, at that time, there's no real excuse for it. You're a well-paid professional (or even just a grown-up): act like it.
And there's speculation that without a strong and forceful/vocal leader (Isiah Thomas, Michael Jordan [who also came with Phil Jackson--->a proven ego manager]), Rodman carried the potential for similar meltdowns throughout his career.


These are things that may hold him back for some.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#29 » by trex_8063 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:28 am

Ainosterhaspie wrote:The Bulls from 91-93 with Grant had a better version of Jordan and Pippen than the 96-98 Bulls with Rodman had, yet the 96 Bulls were the team from those two groups that is the best contender for all time great team.


I'd be cautious about ascribing the credit to Rodman. '96 Bulls had prime Toni Kukoc as possibly only the 4th-best player; for the '92-'93 Bulls it was BJ Armstrong (or maybe John Paxson or Cliff Levingston for '92). One is clearly better than the other, no? Ron Harper was better than BJ Armstrong/John Paxson, too. And while Luc Longley wasn't a prize, he was certainly better than the aging husk of Bill Cartwright.

Basically if we look past the "Big 3", the '96 Bulls were better than the '92 or '93 Bulls [often by substantial margins] from #4 thru #12 on the roster. And #4 thru #12 account for more than half of the total minutes played on a team.
Additionally, the league expanded from 27 teams in '95 to 29 in '96, which hypothetically could have something to do with why the record jumped so much.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#30 » by trex_8063 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:30 am

Thru post #29:

Tony Parker - 2 (scabbarista, trex_8063)
Hal Greer - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Larry Nance - 1 (pandrade83)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


Really hoping we get at least one more in the next 12 hours, to make the runoff easier/shorter.

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#31 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:14 am

I laid some early ground work for this before, but now the official vote.

Greer -

7x all nba
10x allstar
1x NBA champion
1x allstar MVP (for those who value that)
Career WS 102.7 (74th NBA only)
1 top 10 MVP vote

Greer was a jumper shooting shooting guard who entered the league in 1959, by all reasonable measures it was still somewhat of an infant league and he played until 1973 where one could argue the league was at least someone in a modern form (ABA merger perhaps would be the better starting point for that or we could push till 80 for the 3 point line). It was a big man's league in Greer's era and stand out guards were few and far between. Greer is likely the last guard from that era who has a great case for being on this list.

An issue we keep having to address is that the league didn't shoot well at the time and again it was a big man's league. PER is an awful stat, but it has support here from some voters so we need to address it, we need to talk TS%, and we need to talk about the positional issues.


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Image


The first table illustrates Greer's minute weighted PER against all guards. 8 years in the top 5 of the league's guards with an odd 6th thrown in in 65. That's 9 years where by PER he should be right there in the conversation for all league honors (he made 7). No the peak isn't mind blowing, but remember we're talking about a shooting guard who was primarily a jump shooter. The value of creating space for others or bailing out the team isn't well captured in these metrics. Given there isn't a poor reputation for his defense it stands to reason based on what we've seen with RAPM that we could project he'd be a likely candidate for his RAPM being better than his PER and of course would have benefited from a 3 point line.

Image

One of the problems with PER is that we as fans know that the league average year to year is ~15 so we default to assuming that any player should be judged by that. The problem is the league can and does have positional biases. And PER itself has those same biases built into it. Hollinger himself when using PER to calculate wins, adjusts each position. It's odd but VA and EWA are part of John's stats right on ESPN's nba stats page, and I'm doubtful how many people have ever even seen them as nobody uses them elsewhere.

VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards


Right in John's formula you see how he has assigned different values to positions, but remember ESPN only tracks PER back to 03 and I'm not 100% sure the John ever signed off on pre 1974 "PER".

Simple average PER by position over Greer's Career (somewhat skewed upward for PG and downward for PF due to post prime years)

C 16.3
PF 15.3
SF 15.2
PG 14.7
SG 13.7

Here we see outside of PG there's a league and consistent height skewing, taller = better in terms of PER.

Greer however in the data from 61-70 had a PER at least 1 greater than the average SG and peaked 5.02 higher. This is all without discussing Trex's work to use scaled PER values. Now this isn't to say that Greer wasn't somewhat low in PER against some of the greats, but hopefully it adds context to how much of a big man bias existed in the game at the time, and that he was absolutely a standout relative to position.

TS%
Image

Finally, as TS%'s were lesser in that era I wanted to put his shooting in context both with the league and with his position.

I'll let the numbers talk here, they're not so mind blowing that I expect this to change people's minds about him, but again remeber this is a guy mostly taking jump shots and he's shooting very meaningfully better than the league at a position that shoots a bit worse than the league average.

Vote Greer
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#32 » by pandrade83 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:31 am

Ainosterhaspie wrote:Rodman is a better rebounder than Wallace by a long shot. The article I posted argues he is the best rebounder ever and by a wide margin, yes even better than Wilt and Russell. Rodman is also a significantly better free throw shooter than Wallace who was a terrible free throw shooter. Rodman had a higher shooting percentage as well, scored more points per game and had more assists per game.

Rodman ranks number one with a large gap to number two in win percentage differential, something the author of the article I linked to discusses in detail, which is an examination of the difference in a team's winning percentage when the player plays compared to when he doesn't. Wallace is #196 on that list.

The Bulls from 91-93 with Grant had a better version of Jordan and Pippen than the 96-98 Bulls with Rodman had, yet the 96 Bulls were the team from those two groups that is the best contender for all time great team. Grant's scoring is better than Rodman's but Rodman's rebounding is far superior to Grant's. Rodman was all NBA and DPOY 2x, Grant 0. Rodman was 1st defensive team 7 times, Grant 0. Rodman was 2nd defensive team 1 time, Grant 4. Rodman has more all star appearances 2-1. Rodman was so much better at role player stuff that the moderate scoring edge Grant has doesn't matter. Rodman has the better head to head record in the playoffs (3-1)despite to opposing team having two guys who rank ahead of the best guy on his team on the all time list. I'm not counting the Magic/Bulls series Rodman's team won since Grant was out injured.


In addition to what Trex brought up - some other criticisms of Rodman that are likely to arise:

-Relatively poor meaningful longevity. He's just #110 in Career WS
-Some low impact playoff runs (in addition to '95, Shawn Kemp pretty well kicked his ass in the '96 Finals, very low impact in the '98 Finals, inconsistent impact in the '88,'90 & '92 playoffs (that's not to say he didn't have his moments - it just wan't consistent).
-Trex brought up the "ability to fit in any situation issue" - but Buck WIlliams & Ho Grant are a pair of forwards who have significantly better quality longevity who are more portable than Rodman.
-On the '96 squad vs. the 1st 3 title teams - the East competition likely helped the guady record. Go through the playoff squads - 2 through 8 seeds '92 vs. '96: I'd take the '92 teams in all but one situation: Orlando vs. Cleveland and even that is a lot closer than you think). Everywhere else up & down the line, the '92 squads are better.

With all that said, I wouldn't think it's outrageous for him to get in here - we're at the stage where he deserves to be part of the conversation. But he isn't a shoe-in here either.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#33 » by penbeast0 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:17 pm

Ainosterhaspie wrote:Rodman is ...the best rebounder ever and by a wide margin....


Rodman is the greatest RS rebounder ever, yes. However, when the playoffs arrive, he slips a bit. In fact, Dwight Howard is listed as BBR's leader in career reb percentage (don't know if they adjusted for the difference is counting team rebounds for guys like Wilt or Russell). Rodman is still outstanding (3rd, roughly even with DeAndre Jordan) but not as dominant as his regular season would indicate.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#34 » by LA Bird » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:32 pm

1. Shawn Marion
The second most valuable player on the SSOL Suns and a very long career as a highly versatile defensive player even though he was never selected to an All-Defensive team. One of the highest remaining player in both career WS and VORP. Marion's offensive skillset is too limited to be relied on to create his own offense but he is one of the best if you are looking for a #2 or #3 option. Excellent movement off the ball, low turnovers and even some great shooting in his earlier years (although that got worse and worse over the years). There are a couple defense-first players coming up on my list but I think Marion is clearly ahead of the others on offense and is a credible two-way threat.

2. Ben Wallace
The other 4 time DPOY (Mutombo) was voted in almost 25 spots ago. Wallace's offense is bad but his defense is dominant enough for him to be voted in here.

FWIW, I have Rodman coming up next.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#35 » by pandrade83 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:58 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:I laid some early ground work for this before, but now the official vote.

Greer -



Love the work & analysis. It aligns with what I thought about Greer before, so it sort of reinforces my perception of him. One of the reasons I'm not as high on him - which your analysis sort of tries to use as a + is the level of competition he had at the position. Guard play then was pretty bad - I'm also concerned that his peak coincided with the biggest expansion of Pro Basketball ever.

Nonetheless - great stuff!
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#36 » by trex_8063 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:12 pm

Thru post #35:

Tony Parker - 2 (scabbarista, trex_8063)
Hal Greer - 2 (dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier)
Shawn Marion - 1 (LABird)
Larry Nance - 1 (pandrade83)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


With him also having two secondary votes, the support for Marion is getting strong. But as per protocol, we'll be moving to runoff with the two leaders in first-place votes: Greer and Parker. Eliminating the others does not transfer any new votes to either, so it's stands thus:

Tony Parker - 2 (scabbarista, trex_8063)
Hal Greer - 2 (dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier)


If your name isn't shown here, please state your pick between these two guards with reasons why. Will be looking to conclude runoff and move on within 24 hours.

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dhsilv2
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#37 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:57 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:I laid some early ground work for this before, but now the official vote.

Greer -



Love the work & analysis. It aligns with what I thought about Greer before, so it sort of reinforces my perception of him. One of the reasons I'm not as high on him - which your analysis sort of tries to use as a + is the level of competition he had at the position. Guard play then was pretty bad - I'm also concerned that his peak coincided with the biggest expansion of Pro Basketball ever.

Nonetheless - great stuff!


Thank you.

I agree the competition was weak, but shooting guard competition today is actually pretty awful by PER metrics, I'm sure the TS% is more favorable with 3 pointers. The thing is a great jump shot just wasn't rewarded in that era by the metrics we have. So you either see that he was well above average for a really like time, and give him bonus credit for his style or you don't. If you don't, I can't make a case for him here beyond playoffs and his ability to score in volume...and while that's not a terrible case, I would have 5-10 more guys before I'd make that one.

You can almost argue the best comp we have in here might be, he was a yester era Reggie Miller, likely a poor man's version, but a Miller without the 3 pointer would look very similar to Greer in terms of metrics and both have long and successful without "WOW" levels of success.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#38 » by Owly » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:53 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:I laid some early ground work for this before, but now the official vote.

Greer -

7x all nba
10x allstar
1x NBA champion
1x allstar MVP (for those who value that)
Career WS 102.7 (74th NBA only)
1 top 10 MVP vote

Greer was a jumper shooting shooting guard who entered the league in 1959, by all reasonable measures it was still somewhat of an infant league and he played until 1973 where one could argue the league was at least someone in a modern form (ABA merger perhaps would be the better starting point for that or we could push till 80 for the 3 point line). It was a big man's league in Greer's era and stand out guards were few and far between. Greer is likely the last guard from that era who has a great case for being on this list.

An issue we keep having to address is that the league didn't shoot well at the time and again it was a big man's league. PER is an awful stat, but it has support here from some voters so we need to address it, we need to talk TS%, and we need to talk about the positional issues.


Spoiler:
Image


The first table illustrates Greer's minute weighted PER against all guards. 8 years in the top 5 of the league's guards with an odd 6th thrown in in 65. That's 9 years where by PER he should be right there in the conversation for all league honors (he made 7). No the peak isn't mind blowing, but remember we're talking about a shooting guard who was primarily a jump shooter. The value of creating space for others or bailing out the team isn't well captured in these metrics. Given there isn't a poor reputation for his defense it stands to reason based on what we've seen with RAPM that we could project he'd be a likely candidate for his RAPM being better than his PER and of course would have benefited from a 3 point line.

Image

One of the problems with PER is that we as fans know that the league average year to year is ~15 so we default to assuming that any player should be judged by that. The problem is the league can and does have positional biases. And PER itself has those same biases built into it. Hollinger himself when using PER to calculate wins, adjusts each position. It's odd but VA and EWA are part of John's stats right on ESPN's nba stats page, and I'm doubtful how many people have ever even seen them as nobody uses them elsewhere.

VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards


Right in John's formula you see how he has assigned different values to positions, but remember ESPN only tracks PER back to 03 and I'm not 100% sure the John ever signed off on pre 1974 "PER".

Simple average PER by position over Greer's Career (somewhat skewed upward for PG and downward for PF due to post prime years)

C 16.3
PF 15.3
SF 15.2
PG 14.7
SG 13.7

Here we see outside of PG there's a league and consistent height skewing, taller = better in terms of PER.

Greer however in the data from 61-70 had a PER at least 1 greater than the average SG and peaked 5.02 higher. This is all without discussing Trex's work to use scaled PER values. Now this isn't to say that Greer wasn't somewhat low in PER against some of the greats, but hopefully it adds context to how much of a big man bias existed in the game at the time, and that he was absolutely a standout relative to position.

TS%
Image

Finally, as TS%'s were lesser in that era I wanted to put his shooting in context both with the league and with his position.

I'll let the numbers talk here, they're not so mind blowing that I expect this to change people's minds about him, but again remeber this is a guy mostly taking jump shots and he's shooting very meaningfully better than the league at a position that shoots a bit worse than the league average.

Vote Greer
Alt Webber

Would these numbers support a case for Bill Sharman? Lesser minutes if you were going by that method (though as before I'm uncertain on just multiplying the two together), in part due to fewer total games at that time (and perhaps playing in the ABL at the end, though I'm not sure if that was somthing tempting him out of retirement, closer to LA, or a route into coaching or whatever), still obviously a long way off Greer. But anyhow, if there's a lower baseline for guards and 2s from 50s into early 60s (and it continues to extend back into the 50s) wouldn't Sharman be an even greater beneficiary of positional adjustments?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#39 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:33 pm

Owly wrote:Would these numbers support a case for Bill Sharman? Lesser minutes if you were going by that method (though as before I'm uncertain on just multiplying the two together), in part due to fewer total games at that time (and perhaps playing in the ABL at the end, though I'm not sure if that was somthing tempting him out of retirement, closer to LA, or a route into coaching or whatever), still obviously a long way off Greer. But anyhow, if there's a lower baseline for guards and 2s from 50s into early 60s (and it continues to extend back into the 50s) wouldn't Sharman be an even greater beneficiary of positional adjustments?


To be honest, I've not seen enough of Sharman to really judge his game and how his game looked. Remember my view of the numbers is based on his style and how I think that would add more value than the numbers alone. The case is based on longevity, not peak. Sherman does not have the longevity so that alone makes the discussion a bit moot.

I'd also argue that the league as a whole was much worse in the 50's than 60's, perhaps the largest decade over decade change we've seen (which is kinda a given due to when the league started). We've been willing to let a decent number of people into this list from the 60's I believe based on that assumption, and have been rather harsh on 50's players relative to 60's players. Perhaps I'm joining the hive mind, but I don't think that assessment is unfair.

So to directly answer, yes you could make a similar case with the data I provided here for Sherman. It might show that he peaked higher, but again he did not have the longevity unless there are other leagues than the NBA that I don't have numbers on (and I wont be championing the ABA guys, so prior era stuff is out of the question for me). And again era was materially worse.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #76 

Post#40 » by Owly » Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:08 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
Owly wrote:Would these numbers support a case for Bill Sharman? Lesser minutes if you were going by that method (though as before I'm uncertain on just multiplying the two together), in part due to fewer total games at that time (and perhaps playing in the ABL at the end, though I'm not sure if that was somthing tempting him out of retirement, closer to LA, or a route into coaching or whatever), still obviously a long way off Greer. But anyhow, if there's a lower baseline for guards and 2s from 50s into early 60s (and it continues to extend back into the 50s) wouldn't Sharman be an even greater beneficiary of positional adjustments?


To be honest, I've not seen enough of Sharman to really judge his game and how his game looked. Remember my view of the numbers is based on his style and how I think that would add more value than the numbers alone. The case is based on longevity, not peak. Sherman[sic] does not have the longevity so that alone makes the discussion a bit moot.

I'd also argue that the league as a whole was much worse in the 50's than 60's, perhaps the largest decade over decade change we've seen (which is kinda a given due to when the league started). We've been willing to let a decent number of people into this list from the 60's I believe based on that assumption, and have been rather harsh on 50's players relative to 60's players. Perhaps I'm joining the hive mind, but I don't think that assessment is unfair.

So to directly answer, yes you could make a similar case with the data I provided here for Sherman[sic]. It might show that he peaked higher, but again he did not have the longevity unless there are other leagues than the NBA that I don't have numbers on (and I wont be championing the ABA guys, so prior era stuff is out of the question for me). And again era was materially worse.

The problem with that line of reasoning is that Greer and Sharman have a three year overlap and Sharman is clearly, in terms of his rate based advanced metrics, better (PER better each year, better WS/48 each year. Average PER for 32-34 Sharman 17.4, for 22-24 Greer 14.8; BS average WS/48 .172, HG .137). Indeed based on your "average SG" PER numbers, Sharman is nearly 3x the distance above the average starter that Greer is (Greer averaging 1.41, Sharman 4.01).

If one genuinely believes that Greer failed to stand out in a weak era at the start of his career, then his meaningful longevity is chopped down, especially given the low calibre of his final 3 years.I think it would take some mental gymnastics to devalue Sharman on the idea of low competition, see him do better than Greer in the same league and then argue that Greer (a) adds anything to his meaningful longevity in those years, (b) argue a low replacement level at the position helps Greer (whilst the position trends stronger later than it did in his earlier days) and (c) argue for Greer on the idea of defense and spacing, versus a considerably purer shooter and (based on the very limited available information) probably/plausibly better defender.

I can see the arguments at the margins e.g. 50s as generally weaker and Greer has a big minutes edge. But Greer's case hinges on separating himself from the pack (otherwise he's just ... idk, a lower-peaking, perhaps slightly better on average, Jason Terry). And Sharman does that more (better metrics anyway, but also the SG pack and their metrics looks to be trending weaker across the Sharman era). And it hinges on spacing, and Sharman does that better.

As such whilst I haven't looked at it systematically, I can't see that the case for a clear separation based on a notion of a big gap based on era where also making a case that Greer will benefit from a three point line and should be credited spacing (since any change in the quality of rim-protectors is immaterial in a comparison of jump shooters, Sharman is the better shooter - on arguably worse rims, and Sharman played better during their overlap).

If you want to say for the crossover era in question bar West and Robertson (and Sam Jones) there aren't many good guards to compete (and yes, they are much more Greer's era, but are more 1s, and only so much of the league) and more with until the late-mid 60s when the likes Frazier, Bing, Monroe etc arrive, that's fine, but then you both have to chuck out Greer's first three years as having any value and also have to say that Greer's one spell where he clearly separates himself from the pack, '62-'64 was versus bad guards.

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