#5 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project

[LA Bird]

The weakness of RAPM has always been it's a regular season stat only

I don't know about the older RAPM data collected by colts18 on the google sites page but the all the various 2001~present RAPM released by JE on the apbr forum in 2015 seems to include the postseason. He has also mentioned on twitter that playoff possessions are generally included, though he didn't say whether there was any weighting involved.

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Battier is top 5 regular season if not top 3 based on his +/- data. However his impact is all largely subtle glue guy stuff
...
it's possible Battier not having another level of individual dominance as a defender hurts his case in playoffs compared to defenders like Kawhi and Bowen. The modern equivalent would be defenders like Patterson (pre knee surgery) and Crowder who have always been great DRPM players in regular season but in the playoffs the talent catches up to them on both ends. Battier is better than them and does have some individual moments like defending Kobe but it's from the same school of defense of players with average athleticism who are in the right spots. My guess is he has more consistent game to game defense than Bowen in the regular season while Bowen's impact is more dependent on whether there's a star to shut down. This however could give Bowen a higher ceiling in the playoffs.

If all Battier does is subtle glue guy stuff with average athelticism, why don't we see many other glue guys putting up comparable DRAPM numbers? Comparing Battier to Patterson/Crowder is false equivalence. Those guys peaked at 1~1.5 DRAPM whereas Battier was multiple tiers higher at 4.5 DRAPM. It would be like comparing Derozan to Jordan just because they had similar playing styles and hypothesizing MJ will have playoff troubles in the league today too because we see Derozan regularly choking. JE's RAPM included playoffs so unless you have postseason only RAPM across Battier's prime showing his defense to be underperforming compared to the regular season, this conjecture is not supported by any evidence.

[trex_8063]

The weakness of RAPM has always been it's a regular season stat only

I don't know about the older RAPM data collected by colts18 on the google sites page

Those data-sets [for '94-'96] provided by colts18 are indeed rs-only, and apparently it's more of an APM model (as apposed to RAPM). But as you say, the data we cite for most other years are full-season (that is: include the playoffs), as far as I'm aware.

[Dr Positivity]

The weakness of RAPM has always been it's a regular season stat only

I don't know about the older RAPM data collected by colts18 on the google sites page but the all the various 2001~present RAPM released by JE on the apbr forum in 2015 seems to include the postseason. He has also mentioned on twitter that playoff possessions are generally included, though he didn't say whether there was any weighting involved.

They technically include the postseason as an attempt to make the regular season numbers slightly better, but I don't consider it very useful as a measure of playoff impact. Not only because of a tiny sample size of games considering RAPM is a stat where even a full season of regular season games is not enough data let alone a few weeks in the playoffs, but also because they're playing the same team over and over again. A series where a player plays with the same 4 guys against the same 5 opponents 90% of the time he's on the floor is going to be impossible to tell by +/- who is making the impact.

Ultimately I see the playoffs as a different game than regular season in talent, intensity and strategy. That's why Hakeem is considered better player than Robinson despite having worse regular season stats. Another example I would use is the Warriors barely ned Durant in the regular season and RPM has him as their 3rd best player last couple seasons, but in the playoffs his value, and impact turning a Finals loser in 16-1 and beating Cavs 4-1 and 4-0, is more obvious. At times he has even seemed more dominant on defense than Draymond in the Finals. I wasn't a Durant fan even years before he turned heel but his impact appears to be highest at the most important moments, and I think it would be a mistake to call Draymond the 2nd most valuable Warrior the last few seasons despite his stronger RPM

There is probably nothing as good at measuring playoff impact as RAPM is at measuring regular season impact

If all Battier does is subtle glue guy stuff with average athelticism, why don't we see many other glue guys putting up comparable DRAPM numbers? Comparing Battier to Patterson/Crowder is false equivalence. Those guys peaked at 1~1.5 DRAPM whereas Battier was multiple tiers higher at 4.5 DRAPM. It would be like comparing Derozan to Jordan just because they had similar playing styles and hypothesizing MJ will have playoff troubles in the league today too because we see Derozan regularly choking. JE's RAPM included playoffs so unless you have postseason only RAPM across Battier's prime showing his defense to be underperforming compared to the regular season, this conjecture is not supported by any evidence.

Battier is definitely better than them on defense, but his strengths are positioning driven like them and is the "quietest" defender of anyone in contention here

You're right that there's no evidence supporting Battier having less impact in the playoffs, or to say that quiet defense is any less valuable (I was pushing Danny Green in the SG threads for his subtle handwork and footwork), but there's no real evidence that it's as high in the playoffs as in the regular season either. Personally I choose to believe however that talent becomes more important in the playoffs, there have been many examples of it, Patterson and Crowder included. Crowder rated as the best player on the Celtics in 2016 and 2017 and the best player in Kyrie/Isaiah trade, but in the playoffs was unreliable offensively and got torched by Lebron. It just proved Stevens system worked really well with him playing, and they might be missing that right now

I don't have that big a problem with Battier getting in here though, it's more of a longevity vs peak thing with Kawhi

[70sFan]

I've watched Celtics vs Sixers game from 1971 yesterday (one of few available games of Hondo prime) and Havlicek really impressed me on defense. Given hjs longevity and consistency, I think that he's valid candidate right now. Besides Bowen and Battier, I don't see anyone left with so valuable defensive career.

[iggymcfrack]

The weakness of RAPM has always been it's a regular season stat only

I don't know about the older RAPM data collected by colts18 on the google sites page but the all the various 2001~present RAPM released by JE on the apbr forum in 2015 seems to include the postseason. He has also mentioned on twitter that playoff possessions are generally included, though he didn't say whether there was any weighting involved.

They technically include the postseason as an attempt to make the regular season numbers slightly better, but I don't consider it very useful as a measure of playoff impact. Not only because of a tiny sample size of games considering RAPM is a stat where even a full season of regular season games is not enough data let alone a few weeks in the playoffs, but also because they're playing the same team over and over again. A series where a player plays with the same 4 guys against the same 5 opponents 90% of the time he's on the floor is going to be impossible to tell by +/- who is making the impact.

Ultimately I see the playoffs as a different game than regular season in talent, intensity and strategy. That's why Hakeem is considered better player than Robinson despite having worse regular season stats. Another example I would use is the Warriors barely ned Durant in the regular season and RPM has him as their 3rd best player last couple seasons, but in the playoffs his value, and impact turning a Finals loser in 16-1 and beating Cavs 4-1 and 4-0, is more obvious. At times he has even seemed more dominant on defense than Draymond in the Finals. I wasn't a Durant fan even years before he turned heel but his impact appears to be highest at the most important moments, and I think it would be a mistake to call Draymond the 2nd most valuable Warrior the last few seasons despite his stronger RPM

There is probably nothing as good at measuring playoff impact as RAPM is at measuring regular season impact

If all Battier does is subtle glue guy stuff with average athelticism, why don't we see many other glue guys putting up comparable DRAPM numbers? Comparing Battier to Patterson/Crowder is false equivalence. Those guys peaked at 1~1.5 DRAPM whereas Battier was multiple tiers higher at 4.5 DRAPM. It would be like comparing Derozan to Jordan just because they had similar playing styles and hypothesizing MJ will have playoff troubles in the league today too because we see Derozan regularly choking. JE's RAPM included playoffs so unless you have postseason only RAPM across Battier's prime showing his defense to be underperforming compared to the regular season, this conjecture is not supported by any evidence.

Battier is definitely better than them on defense, but his strengths are positioning driven like them and is the "quietest" defender of anyone in contention here

You're right that there's no evidence supporting Battier having less impact in the playoffs, or to say that quiet defense is any less valuable (I was pushing Danny Green in the SG threads for his subtle handwork and footwork), but there's no real evidence that it's as high in the playoffs as in the regular season either. Personally I choose to believe however that talent becomes more important in the playoffs, there have been many examples of it, Patterson and Crowder included. Crowder rated as the best player on the Celtics in 2016 and 2017 and the best player in Kyrie/Isaiah trade, but in the playoffs was unreliable offensively and got torched by Lebron. It just proved Stevens system worked really well with him playing, and they might be missing that right now

I don't have that big a problem with Battier getting in here though, it's more of a longevity vs peak thing with Kawhi

Obviously this doesn’t isolate down to the individual level, but I was curious to see how teams did in the playoffs against Battier during his peak years to see if we could gauge anything about this effect.

2005 Suns (4 games)
Regular season ORtg: 114.5
Postseason ORtg: 124.8

2006 Mavericks (4 games)
Regular season ORtg: 111.8
Postseason ORtg: 116.0

2007 Jazz (7 games)
RS ORtg: 110.1
PS ORtg: 103.9

2008 Jazz (6 games)
RS ORtg: 113.8
PS ORtg: 107.2

2009 Blazers (6 games)
RS ORtg: 107.8
PS ORtg: 104.9

2009 Lakers (7 games)
RS ORtg: 112.8
PS ORtg: 109.2

That works out to an average net ORtg of -1.93 per game. Battier’s teams had an average DRtg of -4.76 during the regular season those years. Which means..... well not very much really. It’s not particularly conclusive. Just thought it was interesting to take a look at. If anything the fact the 2 Memphis defenses performed poorly in ‘05 and ‘06 while the Houston defenses consistently performed well just shows that there’s a lot more going on than Battier in terms of how the team does as a whole.

[Gibson22]

Hi guys, 1 hour left

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[Johnny Firpo]

Give me Bruce Bowen. Hated the guy, well, definitely did not like him, but he was phenomenal/frustrating on the defensive end, he even defender Dirk as the primary defender in many series, and doing an excellent job.

[Gibson22]

Battier won 7 to 6 (kawhi)

[LeBird]

Can you take me off your list? Thanks.

[trex_8063]

Copied from another thread.....

...Bowen was discussed for years as someone who might have been the absolute best defender in the whole league at any position. Battier would never have been seriously mentioned on that topic. Neither would Iguodala.

Actually, I remember an SI article about Battier being the best defender in the league and talking about how he used analytics and studying tendencies to push opposing players out of their comfort zone. I don't tend to read SI for their serious analysis but if you are saying he was never seriously mentioned, it might give you some comfort.

I don't ever remember Bowen discussed as the best defender in the league either, btw, only the best perimeter defender (which was enough for me to vote for him over the other 3 defenders voted here despite the above comment).

And fwiw here is an article on DraftExpress from 2008 where they state that Shane Battier "might be the best defensive forward in the NBA", as well as "probably the most fundamentally sound defender in the game."

jsia, but I should stop derailing this thread. Think I'll copy this quote to the appropriate thread....

[cecilthesheep]

Copied from another thread.....

...Bowen was discussed for years as someone who might have been the absolute best defender in the whole league at any position. Battier would never have been seriously mentioned on that topic. Neither would Iguodala.

Actually, I remember an SI article about Battier being the best defender in the league and talking about how he used analytics and studying tendencies to push opposing players out of their comfort zone. I don't tend to read SI for their serious analysis but if you are saying he was never seriously mentioned, it might give you some comfort.

I don't ever remember Bowen discussed as the best defender in the league either, btw, only the best perimeter defender (which was enough for me to vote for him over the other 3 defenders voted here despite the above comment).

And fwiw here is an article on DraftExpress from 2008 where they state that Shane Battier "might be the best defensive forward in the NBA", as well as "probably the most fundamentally sound defender in the game."

jsia, but I should stop derailing this thread. Think I'll copy this quote to the appropriate thread....

Y'all are bringing me around on the idea of Battier, if not as someone who I believe was better than Bowen, at least as a more reasonable choice than I thought previously. Given the vehemence of my earlier stated position, this may make me seem easily swayed, but I really do value these perceptions from the time highly, even though the human eye is fallible (and even though 2008 was well past Bowen's prime).

Now, if you're not yet sick of spending all this time showing me the light, what's the case for Iguodala as better than both of them?

[Owly]

Copied from another thread.....

Actually, I remember an SI article about Battier being the best defender in the league and talking about how he used analytics and studying tendencies to push opposing players out of their comfort zone. I don't tend to read SI for their serious analysis but if you are saying he was never seriously mentioned, it might give you some comfort.

I don't ever remember Bowen discussed as the best defender in the league either, btw, only the best perimeter defender (which was enough for me to vote for him over the other 3 defenders voted here despite the above comment).

And fwiw here is an article on DraftExpress from 2008 where they state that Shane Battier "might be the best defensive forward in the NBA", as well as "probably the most fundamentally sound defender in the game."

jsia, but I should stop derailing this thread. Think I'll copy this quote to the appropriate thread....

Y'all are bringing me around on the idea of Battier, if not as someone who I believe was better than Bowen, at least as a more reasonable choice than I thought previously. Given the vehemence of my earlier stated position, this may make me seem easily swayed, but I really do value these perceptions from the time highly, even though the human eye is fallible (and even though 2008 was well past Bowen's prime).

Now, if you're not yet sick of spending all this time showing me the light, what's the case for Iguodala as better than both of them?

Best answers is to check the reasoning of those who voted for him.

Otoh, versus Bowen, your preferred player:
He's played another half [Bowen] career on top of what Bowen did (24052 minutes for Bowen, 36040 for Iguodala).
He's consistently made his teams significantly better by being on the court despite not being that special an offensive player (cf: impact metrics).

That might seem a bit simple but it's always going to come down to a view that he's been a really good defender for really big minutes.

One illustration would be the 97-14 RAPM, which's value above average put Iguodala as a slightly below average offensive player, but had him above Battier and Bowen in defensive value above average. That gap gets bigger as Iguodala has continued to add positive years, and could be bigger (give a greater effect of his minutes advantage) if measure was starting from some idea of replacement level, rather than league average. I wouldn't claim it to be perfect, but to my understanding it's a good tool (maybe the best for that era, given the limitations of defensive measurements?).

I think perhaps Iguodala might struggle in some mainstream perception (or have done so for a time in terms of defensive recognition) because he wasn't thought of primarily as great defender [on a good team] because that wasn't his percieved "role" (more a sidekick star [on a meh team]).

[trex_8063]

Copied from another thread.....

Actually, I remember an SI article about Battier being the best defender in the league and talking about how he used analytics and studying tendencies to push opposing players out of their comfort zone. I don't tend to read SI for their serious analysis but if you are saying he was never seriously mentioned, it might give you some comfort.

I don't ever remember Bowen discussed as the best defender in the league either, btw, only the best perimeter defender (which was enough for me to vote for him over the other 3 defenders voted here despite the above comment).

And fwiw here is an article on DraftExpress from 2008 where they state that Shane Battier "might be the best defensive forward in the NBA", as well as "probably the most fundamentally sound defender in the game."

jsia, but I should stop derailing this thread. Think I'll copy this quote to the appropriate thread....

Y'all are bringing me around on the idea of Battier, if not as someone who I believe was better than Bowen, at least as a more reasonable choice than I thought previously. Given the vehemence of my earlier stated position, this may make me seem easily swayed, but I really do value these perceptions from the time highly, even though the human eye is fallible (and even though 2008 was well past Bowen's prime).

Now, if you're not yet sick of spending all this time showing me the light, what's the case for Iguodala as better than both of them?

Well, here's what a 2009 article on DraftExpress had to say about his defense:

"A tremendous defender who is arguably the most dynamic player maker on Philadelphia's roster. Does a very good job reading the eyes of ball handlers and intercepting passes to create transition opportunities. Has the quickness and length to effectively deny penetration. Will make some plays blocking shots as well. Gives more effort than almost every elite scorer the League has to offer. Very good rebounder as well. The type of player that coaches love." - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Andre-Iguodala-2918/ ©DraftExpress

He's averaged 2.3 stl, 0.7 blk, and 6.3 DReb per 100 possessions for his career (2.4/0.7/6.6 during his Philly years) and this while also being an impressive containment defender [Bowen's claim to greatness]---see any number of NBA finals series's against Lebron----as well as averaging 34.1 mpg for his career thru '18 (Bowen never averaged that many in any single season of his career). Bowen's career per 100 poss avg's were 1.6 stl, 0.8 blk, and 4.4 DReb, btw.

Iguodala once helped anchor a -5.4 rDRTG (better than any Draymond-anchored GSW team defense) where the next seven after him in playing time [in order] were:
Jrue Holiday
Thaddeus Young
Elton Brand (turned 33 years old before the playoffs started)
Evan Turner
Lou Williams (noted weak defensive player, fwiw)
Jodie Meeks
Spencer Hawes

And as of the end of last season he'd played >11k more career minutes than Bruce Bowen.

idk, that would be the start of my arguments.

[cecilthesheep]

Well, here's what a 2009 article on DraftExpress had to say about his defense:

"A tremendous defender who is arguably the most dynamic player maker on Philadelphia's roster. Does a very good job reading the eyes of ball handlers and intercepting passes to create transition opportunities. Has the quickness and length to effectively deny penetration. Will make some plays blocking shots as well. Gives more effort than almost every elite scorer the League has to offer. Very good rebounder as well. The type of player that coaches love." - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Andre-Iguodala-2918/ ©DraftExpress

He's averaged 2.3 stl, 0.7 blk, and 6.3 DReb per 100 possessions for his career (2.4/0.7/6.6 during his Philly years) and this while also being an impressive containment defender [Bowen's claim to greatness]---see any number of NBA finals series's against Lebron----as well as averaging 34.1 mpg for his career thru '18 (Bowen never averaged that many in any single season of his career). Bowen's career per 100 poss avg's were 1.6 stl, 0.8 blk, and 4.4 DReb, btw.

Iguodala once helped anchor a -5.4 rDRTG (better than any Draymond-anchored GSW team defense) where the next seven after him in playing time [in order] were:
Jrue Holiday
Thaddeus Young
Elton Brand (turned 33 years old before the playoffs started)
Evan Turner
Lou Williams (noted weak defensive player, fwiw)
Jodie Meeks
Spencer Hawes

And as of the end of last season he'd played >11k more career minutes than Bruce Bowen.

idk, that would be the start of my arguments.

He's played another half [Bowen] career on top of what Bowen did (24052 minutes for Bowen, 36040 for Iguodala).
He's consistently made his teams significantly better by being on the court despite not being that special an offensive player (cf: impact metrics).

That might seem a bit simple but it's always going to come down to a view that he's been a really good defender for really big minutes.

Eh, this is just where our priorities become wildly different I guess. Minutes don't mean a lot to me when comparing guys at this level; minutes below a certain threshold hurt somebody, but when both of the guys in contention were great defenders for at least five years or so, I'm going with the guy who I think was better at his peak. And team defensive stats are a little more indicative, but they're also heavily influenced by coaching and other factors, some of which are almost random. DRtg can fluctuate year to year like crazy, even with similar personnel.

Iguodala's a good defender, sure, but I think his Finals performances against LeBron are a little bit overrated. I don't think those series would have been meaningfully different if the Warriors had put, say, Harrison Barnes on LeBron. LeBron would have put up huge stats the same as he did against Iggy, and the Warriors would still have won because they were a massively superior team, other than whatever happened in 2016. That's not a slight against Iguodala, because nobody can stop LeBron - I just don't think his performances in the Finals are evidence of anything unique.

As far as the draftexpress stuff - everyone at this level has quickness, length, and anticipation. Everyone at this level gives more effort than elite scorers do. But not everyone really affects the league's top offensive weapons the way Bowen did. Look at these head-to-head stats against every major 2000s wing scorer I could think of (all stats are per 36 minutes, regular season, and confined to years during which Bowen was active in the league):

Kobe Bryant: 24.8p / 5.2r / 4.6a / 2.9t / 55.8% TS
vs Bowen (32 games): 23.6p / 5.5r / 3.3a / 3.2t / 50.4% TS

Vince Carter: 22.5p / 5.2r / 4.1a / 2.3t / 53.7% TS
vs Bowen (25 games): 21.2p / 4.9r / 3.3a / 2.1t / 49.6% TS

Tracy McGrady: 22.7p / 6.3r / 4.9a / 2.4t / 52.1% TS
vs Bowen (28 games): 21.4p / 7.1r / 3.6a / 2.6t / 47.4% TS

Dwyane Wade: 23.9p / 4.6r / 6.3a / 3.6t / 56.5% TS
vs Bowen (9 games): 23.7p / 4.7r / 6.1a / 4.0t / 51.9% TS

Carmelo Anthony: 24.1p / 6.1r / 3.1a / 3.1t / 54.3% TS
vs Bowen (20 games): 20.2p / 6.9r / 2.9a / 3.1t / 49.6% TS

Peja Stojaković: 18.6p / 5.1r / 1.9a / 1.5t / 58.0% TS
vs Bowen (23 games): 14.4p / 5.5r / 1.4a / 1.6t / 52.5% TS

Ray Allen: 20.2p / 4.3r / 3.6a / 2.3t / 57.5% TS
vs Bowen (26 games): 19.9p / 3.8r / 3.0a / 2.2t / 56.6% TS

Paul Pierce: 21.9p / 6.0r / 3.8a / 2.9t / 56.2% TS
vs Bowen (20 games): 22.2p / 5.3r / 2.2a / 3.2t / 55.0% TS

Michael Redd: 21.7p / 4.4r / 2.4a / 1.7t / 56.3% TS
vs Bowen (16 games): 19.8p / 5.5r / 2.2a / 1.6t / 53.8% TS

Shawn Marion: 17.0p / 9.5r / 1.9a / 1.5t / 54.6% TS
vs Bowen (29 games): 14.7p / 9.0r / 1.5a / 1.6t / 53.2% TS

Richard Jefferson: 17.8p / 5.3r / 3.0a / 2.2t / 56.4% TS
vs Bowen (10 games): 12.3p / 6.0r / 1.7a / 2.6t / 45.0% TS

And finally, in the interests of honesty:

LeBron James: 24.4p / 6.2r / 5.9a / 2.9t / 55.5 TS%
vs Bowen (12 games): 26.6p / 6.7r / 5.2a / 2.1t / 55.5 TS%

Like I said, nobody can stop LeBron. But oh my gosh, look at everyone else (sorry if I forgot about anyone obvious). As I was looking up these stats, even though I expected them to be good, I was actually shocked at how consistent Bowen's head-to-head impact really was. I've looked at a lot of these, and I don't think anyone can beat Bowen in this area. He absolutely tanks efficiency and A/TO ratios across the board, and he does it while reliably reducing volume as well. This is what my eye test was telling me - opponents' games just stopped working the same way when Bowen came into the game, no matter who they were (again, except for LeBron). Iguodala, Battier, et al. were fine defenders, but they did not come close to hobbling everyone they faced that way. That's what sets Bowen apart for me.

[Owly]

Well, here's what a 2009 article on DraftExpress had to say about his defense:

"A tremendous defender who is arguably the most dynamic player maker on Philadelphia's roster. Does a very good job reading the eyes of ball handlers and intercepting passes to create transition opportunities. Has the quickness and length to effectively deny penetration. Will make some plays blocking shots as well. Gives more effort than almost every elite scorer the League has to offer. Very good rebounder as well. The type of player that coaches love." - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Andre-Iguodala-2918/ ©DraftExpress

He's averaged 2.3 stl, 0.7 blk, and 6.3 DReb per 100 possessions for his career (2.4/0.7/6.6 during his Philly years) and this while also being an impressive containment defender [Bowen's claim to greatness]---see any number of NBA finals series's against Lebron----as well as averaging 34.1 mpg for his career thru '18 (Bowen never averaged that many in any single season of his career). Bowen's career per 100 poss avg's were 1.6 stl, 0.8 blk, and 4.4 DReb, btw.

Iguodala once helped anchor a -5.4 rDRTG (better than any Draymond-anchored GSW team defense) where the next seven after him in playing time [in order] were:
Jrue Holiday
Thaddeus Young
Elton Brand (turned 33 years old before the playoffs started)
Evan Turner
Lou Williams (noted weak defensive player, fwiw)
Jodie Meeks
Spencer Hawes

And as of the end of last season he'd played >11k more career minutes than Bruce Bowen.

idk, that would be the start of my arguments.

He's played another half [Bowen] career on top of what Bowen did (24052 minutes for Bowen, 36040 for Iguodala).
He's consistently made his teams significantly better by being on the court despite not being that special an offensive player (cf: impact metrics).

That might seem a bit simple but it's always going to come down to a view that he's been a really good defender for really big minutes.

Eh, this is just where our priorities become wildly different I guess. Minutes don't mean a lot to me when comparing guys at this level; minutes below a certain threshold hurt somebody, but when both of the guys in contention were great defenders for at least five years or so, I'm going with the guy who I think was better at his peak. And team defensive stats are a little more indicative, but they're also heavily influenced by coaching and other factors, some of which are almost random. DRtg can fluctuate year to year like crazy, even with similar personnel.

Iguodala's a good defender, sure, but I think his Finals performances against LeBron are a little bit overrated. I don't think those series would have been meaningfully different if the Warriors had put, say, Harrison Barnes on LeBron. LeBron would have put up huge stats the same as he did against Iggy, and the Warriors would still have won because they were a massively superior team, other than whatever happened in 2016. That's not a slight against Iguodala, because nobody can stop LeBron - I just don't think his performances in the Finals are evidence of anything unique.

As far as the draftexpress stuff - everyone at this level has quickness, length, and anticipation. Everyone at this level gives more effort than elite scorers do. But not everyone really affects the league's top offensive weapons the way Bowen did. Look at these head-to-head stats against every major 2000s wing scorer I could think of (all stats are per 36 minutes, regular season, and confined to years during which Bowen was active in the league):

Kobe Bryant: 24.8p / 5.2r / 4.6a / 2.9t / 55.8% TS
vs Bowen (32 games): 23.6p / 5.5r / 3.3a / 3.2t / 50.4% TS

Vince Carter: 22.5p / 5.2r / 4.1a / 2.3t / 53.7% TS
vs Bowen (25 games): 21.2p / 4.9r / 3.3a / 2.1t / 49.6% TS

Tracy McGrady: 22.7p / 6.3r / 4.9a / 2.4t / 52.1% TS
vs Bowen (28 games): 21.4p / 7.1r / 3.6a / 2.6t / 47.4% TS

Dwyane Wade: 23.9p / 4.6r / 6.3a / 3.6t / 56.5% TS
vs Bowen (9 games): 23.7p / 4.7r / 6.1a / 4.0t / 51.9% TS

Carmelo Anthony: 24.1p / 6.1r / 3.1a / 3.1t / 54.3% TS
vs Bowen (20 games): 20.2p / 6.9r / 2.9a / 3.1t / 49.6% TS

Peja Stojaković: 18.6p / 5.1r / 1.9a / 1.5t / 58.0% TS
vs Bowen (23 games): 14.4p / 5.5r / 1.4a / 1.6t / 52.5% TS

Ray Allen: 20.2p / 4.3r / 3.6a / 2.3t / 57.5% TS
vs Bowen (26 games): 19.9p / 3.8r / 3.0a / 2.2t / 56.6% TS

Paul Pierce: 21.9p / 6.0r / 3.8a / 2.9t / 56.2% TS
vs Bowen (20 games): 22.2p / 5.3r / 2.2a / 3.2t / 55.0% TS

Michael Redd: 21.7p / 4.4r / 2.4a / 1.7t / 56.3% TS
vs Bowen (16 games): 19.8p / 5.5r / 2.2a / 1.6t / 53.8% TS

Shawn Marion: 17.0p / 9.5r / 1.9a / 1.5t / 54.6% TS
vs Bowen (29 games): 14.7p / 9.0r / 1.5a / 1.6t / 53.2% TS

Richard Jefferson: 17.8p / 5.3r / 3.0a / 2.2t / 56.4% TS
vs Bowen (10 games): 12.3p / 6.0r / 1.7a / 2.6t / 45.0% TS

And finally, in the interests of honesty:

LeBron James: 24.4p / 6.2r / 5.9a / 2.9t / 55.5 TS%
vs Bowen (12 games): 26.6p / 6.7r / 5.2a / 2.1t / 55.5 TS%

Like I said, nobody can stop LeBron. But oh my gosh, look at everyone else (sorry if I forgot about anyone obvious). As I was looking up these stats, even though I expected them to be good, I was actually shocked at how consistent Bowen's head-to-head impact really was. I've looked at a lot of these, and I don't think anyone can beat Bowen in this area. He absolutely tanks efficiency and A/TO ratios across the board, and he does it while reliably reducing volume as well. This is what my eye test was telling me - opponents' games just stopped working the same way when Bowen came into the game, no matter who they were (again, except for LeBron). Iguodala, Battier, et al. were fine defenders, but they did not come close to hobbling everyone they faced that way. That's what sets Bowen apart for me.

When you say vs Bowen though ... that's going to be almost exclusively vs Duncan era Spurs (with one year versus a Riley Heat team) ... isn't it going to be expected that these players shoot worse, score less and assist less [both because opposing teams score less and because Duncan was a master of positioning who could deter, prevent or make difficult drives without leaving his man open]. At the margins Manu too was no slouch defensively and given that a number of these guys are SGs (and even just that Bowen was only a circa 30 minute player with some superstars playing a fair chunk more and production versus other players - and couple of extra makes or misses versus a non-Bowen defender could make a fair sized difference to those numbers) [and not to say that the Spurs didn't cross match, but whether they always] he complicates things. There may be an argument that Allen, probably the guy most prone to taking threes, holding his efficiency and volume well supports the idea that it's more Duncan. Then regarding volume, the Spurs were always a little slow, very slow late in the Bowen as biggish minutes era, which just helps at the margins. Put it all together and it just seems a pretty clunky, noisy way of doing it.

I've not engaged in a deep dive into it because I'm more watching, contributing occasionally than fully participating and wouldn't claim a great read on it, fwiw I probably would think of it as something like defensive value added/championship probability added so longevity of quality would be a factor. But even if it wasn't you'd have to have the evidence that that Bowen was "better at his peak" and fwiw among the versions of RAPM that is available for both of them for all years (i.e. prior informed) Iguodala has the best DRAPM year [2009, 2.8] (and 3rd best [2011, 2.5] and 6th best [2012, 1.9]; Bowen with 2nd [2009: 2.6 - low minutes year 18.8mpg], 4th [2008, 2.4] and 5th [2004, 2.1] - Iguodala fwiw takes years 7, 8 and 9 all this without counting years after 2014), so I'm not sure that even peak for peak (or short prime) Bowen is the slam dunk you perhaps think he is.

[cecilthesheep]

When you say vs Bowen though ... that's going to be almost exclusively vs Duncan era Spurs (with one year versus a Riley Heat team) ... isn't it going to be expected that these players shoot worse, score less and assist less [both because opposing teams score less and because Duncan was a master of positioning who could deter, prevent or make difficult drives without leaving his man open]. At the margins Manu too was no slouch defensively and given that a number of these guys are SGs (and even just that Bowen was only a circa 30 minute player with some superstars playing a fair chunk more and production versus other players - and couple of extra makes or misses versus a non-Bowen defender could make a fair sized difference to those numbers) [and not to say that the Spurs didn't cross match, but whether they always] he complicates things. There may be an argument that Allen, probably the guy most prone to taking threes, holding his efficiency and volume well supports the idea that it's more Duncan. Then regarding volume, the Spurs were always a little slow, very slow late in the Bowen as biggish minutes era, which just helps at the margins. Put it all together and it just seems a pretty clunky, noisy way of doing it.

I've not engaged in a deep dive into it because I'm more watching, contributing occasionally than fully participating and wouldn't claim a great read on it, fwiw I probably would think of it as something like defensive value added/championship probability added so longevity of quality would be a factor. But even if it wasn't you'd have to have the evidence that that Bowen was "better at his peak" and fwiw among the versions of RAPM that is available for both of them for all years (i.e. prior informed) Iguodala has the best DRAPM year [2009, 2.8] (and 3rd best [2011, 2.5] and 6th best [2012, 1.9]; Bowen with 2nd [2009: 2.6 - low minutes year 18.8mpg], 4th [2008, 2.4] and 5th [2004, 2.1] - Iguodala fwiw takes years 7, 8 and 9 all this without counting years after 2014), so I'm not sure that even peak for peak (or short prime) Bowen is the slam dunk you perhaps think he is.

That's all very well reasoned; you've definitely identified the weakest points in my case for Bowen, but I have a few rebuttals.

First, while it is true that a lot of those guys were SGs, Bowen typically just guarded the best wing scorer whenever he played, SG or not. Manu was good at defense, yes, but he didn't start next to Bowen and wasn't a super high minutes guy either. So I think it's fair to say these people would have been Bowen's primary matchup most of the time.

Second, I don't have much confidence in RAPM or any other catch-all advanced stat as a precision estimate, especially not of perimeter defense. I think in general these numbers do a fine job of rating good players well and bad players poorly, but when we get to a point where we're splitting hairs between whose best season was 0.2 points higher than whoever else's, I don't think it means a whole lot. It's just telling us they were both very, very good. This is probably my biggest disagreement with the way a lot of the voting has gone. The number isn't magic, and none of us can completely conceptualize what goes into it. The result isn't going to be perfectly accurate, even if it's a good stat overall.

Finally, yeah, Bowen probably does get a slight boost from playing with Duncan. But I don't think it's all Duncan, great defender though he was. Sure, Bowen got to play on a good defense, but I mean, he was part of that defense himself! He was a huge factor in what made the 2000s Spurs defense great, and he deserves some credit for that. For Duncan to make an impact, Bowen has to at a minimum funnel his guy in the proper direction to hit Duncan's help. When efficiency, volume, and A/TO are dropping this drastically across the board, I think the guy who's directly guarding the players has to be looked to as the first factor, no matter how good his teammates are.