Wizards 2019 Draft Thread - Part II

[DCZards]

It's also noteworthy that the supply of centers will drive down Bryant's price, making it extremely likely that we keep him. A signed Bryant would be the 2nd best asset on the team and could possibly man the center position for the next 8-10 years. With him on board, I would definitely focus on other positions.

Good teams need 3 good guards, 3 good forwards and 1 good center. Optimistically, we will have 2 good guards (Beal and Sato), 1 good forward (Brown), and 1 good center (Bryant). Center is therefore the last position we need to worry about.

I consider Brown much more of a guard than a forward. He played mostly PG to close out the season and I'd expect to see him doing more of that in the future. So that means we have a particularly big hole at the forward position.

Green is probably the strongest candidate to be re-signed. He wants to be here and he probably could be had at a good price. I'd also make an offer to Parker.

I read the concerns about Jabari and I agree with most of them. Although I believe the concerns about him as a person and it's impact on the team are a bit overblown. The guy is a loner and can be moody. He's probably not the first or only NBA player with those traits. And I definitely don't think that necessarily makes him a bad teammate.

Parker is young and has some genuine NBA skills--at least on the offensive end. He needs to get in better shape and play harder on the defensive end of the court.

[Dat2U]

That 34 point game was impressive, no doubt. Definitely a promising player.

But, trading down -- if possible -- is the best strategy, IMO. We should also buy a R2 pick.

Right Sekou's previous high was 14. So while he's improving, his most recent performance us an outlier. Unfortunately, if he keeps it up, he could likely play his way into a top 8 spot anyways.

For sure, but... for every player that moves up, another player has to move down!

Zion, Morant, Barrett, Culver & Hunter look to be locks to go in the top 8. If Sekou moves up, that's 6 guys. I wouldn't be surprised to see Reddish in there too -- someone's gonna watch him alone in the gym where he looks like he should go at the top of the draft. That's 7. Some mocks have White in the top 8, some have Hayes there.

On that scenario, we might get Garland -- assuming we don't trade down, which is an even better way to go.

The current SI mock draft would make it possible to trade our #9 to Boston for their #14 & #22 (not #20...) -- & still wind up with Bitadze & Clarke! Sounds good to me.

I think we'll see a run on guards. Lots of teams need guards in the worst way.

My mock so far:

1. NOH PF Zion Williamson
2. MEM PG Ja Morant
3. NYK G/F R.J. Barrett
4. LAC G Darius Garland
5. CLE G/F Jarrett Culver
6. PHX G Coby White
7. CHI F Cameron Reddish
8. ATL F DeAndre Hunter
9. WAS F Sekou Doumbouya
10. ATL C Jaxson Hayes

[payitforward]

I was looking over the free agent list, the depth of available free options at the C position is quite extensive. I count nearly 40 playable options.

Then you look at the draft... Hayes, Bol, Bitadze, Fernando, Porter, Gafford & Queta all rate as 1st round picks.

Then you have plentiful trade options as well as there are number of teams overloaded at the position because rosters were assembled with 3 and 4 Cs, failing to adapt to smallball.

Should the Wizards prioritize non-C positions in the draft with this in mind?

Absolutely.

It's also noteworthy that the supply of centers will drive down Bryant's price, making it extremely likely that we keep him. A signed Bryant would be the 2nd best asset on the team and could possibly man the center position for the next 8-10 years. With him on board, I would definitely focus on other positions.

Good teams need 3 good guards, 3 good forwards and 1 good center. Optimistically, we will have 2 good guards (Beal and Sato), 1 good forward (Brown), and 1 good center (Bryant). Center is therefore the last position we need to worry about.

Well, given my post earlier, I can't bring myself to agree with this. But I do acknowledge it's an interesting point of view & worth discussing.

If the 2 best players available at your pick are equivalent, choose the guy at a position of greater need. Why not? But, if teams pass on Centers to pick less good players at other positions, then the quality gap would get bigger pick by pick. You'd see quality Centers picked lower in the draft than quality guards & forwards. Don't see that.

Given the extreme shortage of tallness in the world, it seems unlikely. There are very few guys who are 6'11 or taller. Dat, you list 7 Centers who rate as R1 picks this year. But, I don't think Jontay Porter is rated as a R1 pick by many people -- he's injured. So, make it 6. For that matter, only a few mocks rate Queta as a R1 pick. I'm not sure Fernando warrants the rating either. Still, given 5 positions on a team & 30 R1 picks, 6 makes some sense.

Nor are there more UFA Centers than other positions. According to https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/ there are 122 UFAs: 25 PGs, 33 SGs, 14 SFs, 27 PFs & 23 C's. (I believe the odd numbers at SG & SF reflect ambiguity over position assignment between 2s & 3s. Call that 47 wings, & the numbers per position look more sensible.)

I also don't understand nate's assessment of need & position. A good team doesn't need a quality backup at Center? What if your starter is injured?

Most good teams seem to have more than two: Steven Adams & Nerlens Noel. Kevon Looney, DeMarcus Cousins, Damian Jones, Jordan Bell & Andrew Bogut. Capela, Nene, & Faried. Horford, Baynes & Theis. Nurkic, Collins, Kanter & Leonard. Happy to grant that there are exceptions -- but that's what they are, exceptions.

[payitforward]

I think we'll see a run on guards. Lots of teams need guards in the worst way.

My mock so far:

1. NOH PF Zion Williamson
2. MEM PG Ja Morant
3. NYK G/F R.J. Barrett
4. LAC G Darius Garland
5. CLE G/F Jarrett Culver
6. PHX G Coby White
7. CHI F Cameron Reddish
8. ATL F DeAndre Hunter
9. WAS F Sekou Doumbouya
10. ATL C Jaxson Hayes

Does this mean you've changed your POV & would not prefer to trade down?

[gravytrain24]

Me I would prefer to trade back and get boston's picks. I want to throw out some names that intrigue me. In the 1st if we trade, Alexander-Walker and Semancic, then trade for a 2nd and maybe Kabengele, Mann, Edwards, Bowen. I would only keep the pick if Reddish or White is on the board. I'm staying away from Bol Bol, Hayes and Sekou.

[gambitx777]

I was not saying that Beal commands the same as AD. #4 and kuzma wouldn't get AD in any reality. All I meant to point out was ingrim and a pick swap for beal is stupid. A first and a young player is fair for Beal. AD is going to probably be 2-4 young players and 1-3 firsts.

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I think Beal commands just as much as AD, if not more. The issue is that AD has only 1 year on his deal and he is holding a proverbial gun to the Pelicans' head. Everyone knows he must be traded so nobody is offering his true value.

Beal has 2 years left on his deal and hasn't signaled that he wants to leave. To get Beal, you need to offer equal value.

I agree with you there for sure. The logic makes sense. Personally I would rather make a bad deal to get wall off the team that a lack luster deal for Beal


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[nate33]

I also don't understand nate's assessment of need & position. A good team doesn't need a quality backup at Center? What if your starter is injured?

Most good teams seem to have more than two: Steven Adams & Nerlens Noel. Kevon Looney, DeMarcus Cousins, Damian Jones, Jordan Bell & Andrew Bogut. Capela, Nene, & Faried. Horford, Baynes & Theis. Nurkic, Collins, Kanter & Leonard. Happy to grant that there are exceptions -- but that's what they are, exceptions.

There is only so much money available in a salary cap era. Spending big money on depth beyond your 7 main rotation players is usually a waste. You are better off spending that money on better main rotation players. In the playoffs, most teams only go 6 or 7 deep. And most teams don't play a backup center in the playoffs. They play a PF at the C position.

Sure it's useful to have a 2nd center to get you through the regular season and through injuries to your starter, but it's just not nearly as high of a priority as having 3 good forwards and 3 good guards. That 2nd center better be cheap, both salarywise and in cost of resources to acquire him.

Looking at your list:
Bogut, Cousins, Jordan and Bell didn't play when Golden State had 3 healthy forwards. The rotation of Curry, Klay, Livingston, Iggy, Durant, Draymond and Looney soaked up all the minutes in the playoffs (3 guards, 3 forwards, and 1 center). It was only after the loss of Durant that they had to rummage through the end of their bench and use Bell and Bogut, since they didn't have any more forwards.

Nene averaged 7 minutes a game in the playoffs. And I'm sure he would have averaged less if Houston had another forward they could trust. He is also really cheap and cost them no assets to acquire.

Baynes was Boston's 8th most utilized player in the playoffs. They still prioritized 3 guards, 3 forwards and 1 center in front of him.

I'll give you Portland. They played a deeper playoff rotation than most.

OKC used Noel and almost got swept. Ask them if they could trade Noel for a equivalent guy at the PF position who could hit a jumper and I'm sure they'd have gone for it.

Now let's look at some other teams. Toronto's backup C is really a PF (Ibaka). Philly has no backup center. Milwaukee's backup centers are PF's (Mirotic and Ilyasova). Brooklyn did not play a backup center. Utah has been trying to trade their second center (Favors) for a true PF or guard for a long time now.

[Ruzious]

Sekou and Samanic are at the top of my wish list right now.

After that, not sure.

Those 2 make the draft a lot more interesting sitting at 9. And... maybe make it more compelling to trade down with Boston for picks 14 and 20. Semanic might be there at at 14 or... push Clarke to 14. Otoh.. Sekou might be there at 9... or push Bol to 9. If we do make the trade with Boston and get either Clarke or Semanic, I'm thinking that sets us up well at PF - and if we sign Bryant, we have a starting foundation to work with - it's not fully developed, but there's hope, and we still have the 20th pick, there's going to be a player or 2 that slips - maybe a Tyler Herro, a Romeo Langford, a PJ Washington or a Keldon Johnson - heck, maybe Bruno Fernando slides all the way down there. Actually, the player I really want later in the draft might be available early in the 2nd round because of his ACL - Chuma Okeke. Same thing with Jontay Porter, but I think he's a longer shot to stay healthy.

[Illmatic12]

Chris Miller was at the combine and said Washington were canvassing teams to buy into the second round - specifically keying in on Philadelphia who owns #33 and #34

[gambitx777]

Chris Miller was at the combine and said Washington were canvassing teams to buy into the second round - specifically keying in on Philadelphia who owns #33 and #34

You can't put much into that untill we know who will be running the team!

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[Illmatic12]

Chris Miller was at the combine and said Washington were canvassing teams to buy into the second round - specifically keying in on Philadelphia who owns #33 and #34

You can't put much into that untill we know who will be running the team!

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

Looks like it’ll be the same person who’s running the team now - Tommy Sheppard

[payitforward]

I consider Brown much more of a guard than a forward. He played mostly PG to close out the season and I'd expect to see him doing more of that in the future. So that means we have a particularly big hole at the forward position.

Green is probably the strongest candidate to be re-signed. He wants to be here and he probably could be had at a good price. I'd also make an offer to Parker.

I read the concerns about Jabari and I agree with most of them. Although I believe the concerns about him as a person and it's impact on the team are a bit overblown. The guy is a loner and can be moody. He's probably not the first or only NBA player with those traits. And I definitely don't think that necessarily makes him a bad teammate.

Parker is young and has some genuine NBA skills--at least on the offensive end. He needs to get in better shape and play harder on the defensive end of the court.

It's interesting to think of Brown as a PG. Or at least as a some of the time PG. His size would be an advantage; kind of a mini-Simmons. As to Green, if he's a veteran minimum player, I suppose, sure.... The problem with him is that he played 2100 minutes last year, & no he was not good. & that is despite the fact that it was the best year of his entire career! Jeff managed under 6 rebounds per 40 minutes. You cannot have that out of a guy who plays the 4 on your squad.

Parker at a few million a year is ok. Parker at $10m a year is ridiculous. If nobody makes him that kind of offer, & we can re-sign him on the cheap... sure. He doesn't improve us, but we do have to have players on the roster.

[payitforward]

Me I would prefer to trade back and get boston's picks. I want to throw out some names that intrigue me. In the 1st if we trade, Alexander-Walker and Semancic, then trade for a 2nd and maybe Kabengele, Mann, Edwards, Bowen. I would only keep the pick if Reddish or White is on the board. I'm staying away from Bol Bol, Hayes and Sekou.

Reddish? Wow....

[payitforward]

I also don't understand nate's assessment of need & position. A good team doesn't need a quality backup at Center? What if your starter is injured? ...

There is only so much money available in a salary cap era. Spending big money on depth beyond your 7 main rotation players is usually a waste. You are better off spending that money on better main rotation players. In the playoffs, most teams only go 6 or 7 deep. And most teams don't play a backup center in the playoffs. They play a PF at the C position....

At which point you are manning 3 of your 5 positions with 4 guys.

Sure it's useful to have a 2nd center to get you through the regular season and through injuries to your starter, but it's just not nearly as high of a priority as having 3 good forwards and 3 good guards...

Fair enough; in the nature of things, your 3d guard or 3d forward is more important than the 2d Center. A guy backing up 2 positions will play more minutes than a guy backing up 1 position. The more minutes a guy plays, the more important it is that he be good.

Bogut, Cousins, Jordan and Bell didn't play when Golden State had 3 healthy forwards. The rotation of Curry, Klay, Livingston, Iggy, Durant, Draymond and Looney soaked up all the minutes in the playoffs (3 guards, 3 forwards, and 1 center). It was only after the loss of Durant that they had to rummage through the end of their bench and use Bell and Bogut, since they didn't have any more forwards.

Yes, if those are your 3 guards & 3 forwards, it's possible to finesse back up Center in the playoffs.

Nene averaged 7 minutes a game in the playoffs. And I'm sure he would have averaged less if Houston had another forward they could trust. He is also really cheap and cost them no assets to acquire.

Baynes was Boston's 8th most utilized player in the playoffs. They still prioritized 3 guards, 3 forwards and 1 center in front of him.

I'll give you Portland. They played a deeper playoff rotation than most.

OKC used Noel and almost got swept. Ask them if they could trade Noel for a equivalent guy at the PF position who could hit a jumper and I'm sure they'd have gone for it.

Now let's look at some other teams. Toronto's backup C is really a PF (Ibaka). Philly has no backup center. Milwaukee's backup centers are PF's (Mirotic and Ilyasova). Brooklyn did not play a backup center. Utah has been trying to trade their second center (Favors) for a true PF or guard for a long time now.

Perhaps this is just a semantic misunderstanding.

During the season there are 11,808 minutes to be played at the 2 forward positions & Center. If you have 3 Forwards & 1 Center, then they must average 2952 minutes. Exactly 1 player in the NBA logged that many minutes -- Bradley Beal (a guard).

Only 9 guys played more than 2500 minutes at Center (actually 3 of them probably played a lot of their minutes at the 4).

[Dat2U]

Read on Twitter

[payitforward]

Chris Miller was at the combine and said Washington were canvassing teams to buy into the second round - specifically keying in on Philadelphia who owns #33 and #34

Great to hear that -- & since it had to be Tommy Sheppard spearheading the effort, it's also another reason to feel optimistic should he wind up at the head of the FO.

[Dat2U]

I think we'll see a run on guards. Lots of teams need guards in the worst way.

My mock so far:

1. NOH PF Zion Williamson
2. MEM PG Ja Morant
3. NYK G/F R.J. Barrett
4. LAC G Darius Garland
5. CLE G/F Jarrett Culver
6. PHX G Coby White
7. CHI F Cameron Reddish
8. ATL F DeAndre Hunter
9. WAS F Sekou Doumbouya
10. ATL C Jaxson Hayes

Does this mean you've changed your POV & would not prefer to trade down?

No not at all, just my projection.

As far as drafting a C, I'd go by tier so in a trade down scenario with Boston I'd likely go non-C at 14 but if someone like Bitadze is at 20 (or 22) then it makes sense to draft one.

[payitforward]

Sekou and Samanic are at the top of my wish list right now.

After that, not sure.

Those 2 make the draft a lot more interesting sitting at 9. And... maybe make it more compelling to trade down with Boston for picks 14 and 20. Semanic might be there at at 14 or... push Clarke to 14. Otoh.. Sekou might be there at 9... or push Bol to 9. If we do make the trade with Boston and get either Clarke or Semanic, I'm thinking that sets us up well at PF - and if we sign Bryant, we have a starting foundation to work with - it's not fully developed, but there's hope, and we still have the 20th pick, there's going to be a player or 2 that slips - maybe a Tyler Herro, a Romeo Langford, a PJ Washington or a Keldon Johnson - heck, maybe Bruno Fernando slides all the way down there. Actually, the player I really want later in the draft might be available early in the 2nd round because of his ACL - Chuma Okeke. Same thing with Jontay Porter, but I think he's a longer shot to stay healthy.

I agree w/ all this -- Samanic looks to have a big upside. Plus, it's unlikely, but there's some possibility to see Bitadze on the board at 20: or maybe one would take him at 14 with the thought that Samanic might be there at 20 (until recently he was universally mocked in R2).

Again, people routinely call this "a weak draft," but it's happened before that drafts people call weak turn out to be exceptionally strong (2011 being the best recent example).

[payitforward]

Seems to me there are two ways to look at the draft and building an NBA roster.

The first is that a team is like a salad -- you need some of this & some of that. If you need lettuce, draft lettuce. From this point of view, if you need radishes or bell pepper, draft a radish or a bell pepper. It's easy to understand why one would look at it this way, since yeah you do need guys at all 5 positions.

The second way is to view a team as a bank account -- grow it as fast as you can & as large as you can. In this case, just draft the very best players you can find, the most valuable assets. The more $$ you have in your account, the easier it is to buy whatever you need for your salad.

Because NBA trades usually move a guy at one position for a guy at a different position, I am 100% behind the second way of viewing a roster. Of course there will be occasions when you have good reason to do something different, but overall I think this is by far the best way to proceed -- & all the more so when you are as depleted of talent as we are right now.

[nate33]

Perhaps this is just a semantic misunderstanding.

During the season there are 11,808 minutes to be played at the 2 forward positions & Center. If you have 3 Forwards & 1 Center, then they must average 2952 minutes. Exactly 1 player in the NBA logged that many minutes -- Bradley Beal (a guard).

Only 9 guys played more than 2500 minutes at Center (actually 3 of them probably played a lot of their minutes at the 4).

Perhaps it is.

I'm not arguing that a team should play a 7-man rotation for an 82-game season. That would be absurd. I'm just saying that, during the playoffs, 95% of the minutes can be carried by just your 7 main guys - the guys whom you are paying big money and you utilized real assets to acquire. The other 6 guys on the active roster can be vet minimum guys, BAE guys and role players found in the 2nd round.

Those 7 main guys should be 3 guards, 3 forwards and 1 center. Like you said, a backup guard and a backup forward have two positions to cover, so they're more needed. Furthermore, teams often play without a real center for stretches, but they almost never play with 2 centers side-by-side, so that further diminishes the need for a backup center and increases the demand for depth at forward and guard.

With that in mind, and given that we (hopefully) have our center already in place, I would not prioritize another center. Obviously, there are caveats. If the best player on our board is a center, I would consider it, particularly if I believed he was much better than prospects at other positions.