Wilt's Case for GOAT

[penbeast0]

Wilt’s all-time playoff record for series was 18-11 and he missed the playoffs right in the heart of his prime.

LeBron’s playoff series record is 35-10 and he led one of the worst supporting casts ever to 66 wins.

In terms of just their impact on winning, LeBron is vastly superior and that doesn’t even factor in how much tougher his competition has been.

Wilt's problem was that his career overlapped that of my primary GOAT candidate, Bill Russell. If you look at his playoff record against anyone but Russell (not saying this is a strong analysis but it's one point) and his series win% is over 80% . . . better than Jordan or LeBron. Of course, if you take Jordan's record against Detroit or LeBron's against whatever team he has lost to most away as well, they slide back ahead of Wilt but not by much. That's why these are the GOAT candidates (along with Kareem).

[70sFan]

he has an amazing GOAT argument in my opinion.
6 Finals in 15 seasons.
4x MVP
7x All-NBA 1st Team(often over the MVP)
13x All-Star
his stats are mythical but some have paced adjusted is career to 26.8/12/3.8 on .58% shooting at 40mpg.
but even still
7x scoring champ
11x rebound champ
9x FG% leader
his team averaged as the 3rd best defense in his career. we know his individual defense is DPOY worthy.
just logically a player who is a scoring/rebounding champ leading the league in FG% while playing great defense is likely the GOAT.
he's officially my 4th Greatest of All Time behind Jordan/Kareem/Lebron.

You say Wilt has an amazing case for GOAT..and list out many reasons why.

But end your post by saying you have both Kareem and LeBron ranked higher...what's your rationale for that?

I've got Wilt barely ahead of Kareem because
a) Wilt was a better passer
b) Wilt was a better defender
c) Wilt was a better rebounder
d) Wilt was a better scorer
e) Wilt was a better shot blocker
f) When they played head to head, Wilt had a 14-13, got outscored slightly by Kareem but out-rebounded Kareem..Wilt's team beat Kareem's Bucks in the 72 western conference finals...all despite the fact that Wilt was at the tail end of his career, past his prime whereas Kareem was a spring chicken and literally in his prime

Wilt over LeBron isn't really much of a debate IMO. Wilt scored 100 points in a single game, he played center yet never once fouled out and averaged 48.5 minutes for an entire season...they only play 48 minutes per game!

You've got LeBron ahead of Wilt. Wilt broke a player's toe by dunking on him! LeBron does this:

Watch on YouTube

I just don't see how anyone could rank LeBron ahead of Wilt..unless they had severe recency bias..

Only guys I think can truly make a case for being the GOAT are: Jordan, Wilt, Russell, Kareem, Bird, Magic.

Wilt’s all-time playoff record for series was 18-11 and he missed the playoffs right in the heart of his prime.

LeBron’s playoff series record is 35-10 and he led one of the worst supporting casts ever to 66 wins.

In terms of just their impact on winning, LeBron is vastly superior and that doesn’t even factor in how much tougher his competition has been.

So you penalize Wilt for playing in a time when playoffs were shorter and for facing less weak first-round level teams, right? Strange logic.

Wilt played in two of the greatest teams of all-time, so I'm not sure that LeBron is "vastly superior in terms of impact on winning". Not that this argument is important, because valuing individual player on numbers of wins in playoffs or RS is extremely flawed idea, but even then James never had as impressive season in terms of sheer winning as 1967 or 1972 for Wilt.

I say this as someone who has James around 3 spots higher than Chamberlain.

[Jaivl]

What case do Bird or Magic have for GOAT in 2019? Jordan and LeBron have them both thoroughly beat.

[Greed]

Scoring monster, defensive POY type, and high hub passing Wilt didn't ever really overlap into one GOAT level player.

.

Yep this is a big key for me. Wilt absolutely had the potential to be GOAT, but he put it all together so rarely. Russell trumped Wilt again and again was his sole concern was to play in a way where his team came out on top. Wilt was motivated by all sorts of other things. That single-mindedness of Russell is a big part of why he was the better basketball player.

Better basketball player? No way.

[kendogg]

What case do Bird or Magic have for GOAT in 2019? Jordan and LeBron have them both thoroughly beat.

As I said their cases are weaker and somewhat of a "what if" situation for both. But they are both complete players that are both arguably smarter than LeBron and better leaders. Impossible to say for sure since we have no solid facts given they played in different eras. But all of the players I personally place in the GOAT tier are players that make pretty much any team they are on a contender. There are a few others in the Demi-GOAT tier that you can probably make a case for but we have to draw the line somewhere.

(chronological order)
GOAT Tier: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James

Demi-GOAT: Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Julius Erving, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, David Robinson, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan

Superstar Tier: Cutoff is somewhere around top 50-60 all time (Note: many active players could rise in tier by the end, and I hesitate to even put LeBron on the list because he's still active but I think his legacy is pretty secure at this point.)

[KobesScarf]

Wilt’s all-time playoff record for series was 18-11 and he missed the playoffs right in the heart of his prime.

LeBron’s playoff series record is 35-10 and he led one of the worst supporting casts ever to 66 wins.

In terms of just their impact on winning, LeBron is vastly superior and that doesn’t even factor in how much tougher his competition has been.

You can't seriously be comparing Lebrons playoffs record in the East over last decade + to Wilt playing Celtics Knicks and Bucks

[Jaivl]

As for OP, Wilt has an easy-peasy case for GOAT.

The problem is that I think it involves taking so many things at face value. I think we know better than that.

[iggymcfrack]

Wilt’s all-time playoff record for series was 18-11 and he missed the playoffs right in the heart of his prime.

LeBron’s playoff series record is 35-10 and he led one of the worst supporting casts ever to 66 wins.

In terms of just their impact on winning, LeBron is vastly superior and that doesn’t even factor in how much tougher his competition has been.

You can't seriously be comparing Lebrons playoffs record in the East over last decade + to Wilt playing Celtics Knicks and Bucks

Here are all the teams that Wilt beat in the playoffs through age 34 (same age as LeBron):

1960 Syracuse Nationals 45-30, 2.77 SRS
1962 Syracuse Nationals 41-39, 2.24 SRS
1964 St. Louis Hawks 46-34, 1.39 SRS
1965 Cincinnati Royals 48-32, 2.04 SRS
1967 Cincinnati Royals 39-42, -0.23 SRS
1967 Boston Celtics 60-21, 7.24 SRS
1967 San Francisco Warriors 44-37, 2.58 SRS
1968 New York Knicks 43-39, 1.78 SRS
1969 San Francisco Warriors 41-41, -1.53 SRS
1969 Atlanta Hawks 48-34, 2.06 SRS
1970 Phoenix Suns 39-43, -1.66 SRS
1970 Atlanta Hawks 48-34, 0.31 SRS
1971 Chicago Bulls 51-31, 5.47 SRS

Wow, what a murderer’s row! So much stronger teams than what LeBron was beating in the East! Basically, Wilt would usually face one decent team a year (Russell’s Celtics) and lose to them every team even though the supporting talent wasn’t really THAT different. Then, because he loses to Russell 8/9 years, he builds Russell’s legend so much that all of a sudden it’s like it’s an honor to lose to him. LeBron’s average Finals competition has been significantly stronger than an average year of 1960s Celtics and he went 3-5 instead of 1-8.

[70sFan]

Wilt’s all-time playoff record for series was 18-11 and he missed the playoffs right in the heart of his prime.

LeBron’s playoff series record is 35-10 and he led one of the worst supporting casts ever to 66 wins.

In terms of just their impact on winning, LeBron is vastly superior and that doesn’t even factor in how much tougher his competition has been.

You can't seriously be comparing Lebrons playoffs record in the East over last decade + to Wilt playing Celtics Knicks and Bucks

Here are all the teams that Wilt beat in the playoffs through age 34 (same age as LeBron):

1960 Syracuse Nationals 45-30, 2.77 SRS
1962 Syracuse Nationals 41-39, 2.24 SRS
1964 St. Louis Hawks 46-34, 1.39 SRS
1965 Cincinnati Royals 48-32, 2.04 SRS
1967 Cincinnati Royals 39-42, -0.23 SRS
1967 Boston Celtics 60-21, 7.24 SRS
1967 San Francisco Warriors 44-37, 2.58 SRS
1968 New York Knicks 43-39, 1.78 SRS
1969 San Francisco Warriors 41-41, -1.53 SRS
1969 Atlanta Hawks 48-34, 2.06 SRS
1970 Phoenix Suns 39-43, -1.66 SRS
1970 Atlanta Hawks 48-34, 0.31 SRS
1971 Chicago Bulls 51-31, 5.47 SRS

Wow, what a murderer’s row! So much stronger teams than what LeBron was beating in the East! Basically, Wilt would usually face one decent team a year (Russell’s Celtics) and lose to them every team even though the supporting talent wasn’t really THAT different. Then, because he loses to Russell 8/9 years, he builds Russell’s legend so much that all of a sudden it’s like it’s an honor to lose to him. LeBron’s average Finals competition has been significantly stronger than an average year of 1960s Celtics and he went 3-5 instead of 1-8.

So you for another time completely ignore that you can't compare raw SRS in 10 teams league to 30 teams league, but you also (for whatever reason) cut Wilt's career to 1971. Why? Who cares that they were the same age when James already has more season played in the league than Wilt.

So you blame Wilt for playing in smaller league but you also blame him for not playing as a teen which was impossible in his era.

[DatAsh]

Wilt’s all-time playoff record for series was 18-11 and he missed the playoffs right in the heart of his prime.

LeBron’s playoff series record is 35-10 and he led one of the worst supporting casts ever to 66 wins.

In terms of just their impact on winning, LeBron is vastly superior and that doesn’t even factor in how much tougher his competition has been.

You can't seriously be comparing Lebrons playoffs record in the East over last decade + to Wilt playing Celtics Knicks and Bucks

Here are all the teams that Wilt beat in the playoffs through age 34 (same age as LeBron):

1960 Syracuse Nationals 45-30, 2.77 SRS
1962 Syracuse Nationals 41-39, 2.24 SRS
1964 St. Louis Hawks 46-34, 1.39 SRS
1965 Cincinnati Royals 48-32, 2.04 SRS
1967 Cincinnati Royals 39-42, -0.23 SRS
1967 Boston Celtics 60-21, 7.24 SRS
1967 San Francisco Warriors 44-37, 2.58 SRS
1968 New York Knicks 43-39, 1.78 SRS
1969 San Francisco Warriors 41-41, -1.53 SRS
1969 Atlanta Hawks 48-34, 2.06 SRS
1970 Phoenix Suns 39-43, -1.66 SRS
1970 Atlanta Hawks 48-34, 0.31 SRS
1971 Chicago Bulls 51-31, 5.47 SRS

Wow, what a murderer’s row! So much stronger teams than what LeBron was beating in the East! Basically, Wilt would usually face one decent team a year (Russell’s Celtics) and lose to them every team even though the supporting talent wasn’t really THAT different. Then, because he loses to Russell 8/9 years, he builds Russell’s legend so much that all of a sudden it’s like it’s an honor to lose to him. LeBron’s average Finals competition has been significantly stronger than an average year of 1960s Celtics and he went 3-5 instead of 1-8.

I don’t think you can compare SRS of a team in an 8 team league to a team in the modern area. A 4.0 srs team back then is much better than a 4.0 srs team today.

[iggymcfrack]

You can't seriously be comparing Lebrons playoffs record in the East over last decade + to Wilt playing Celtics Knicks and Bucks

Here are all the teams that Wilt beat in the playoffs through age 34 (same age as LeBron):

1960 Syracuse Nationals 45-30, 2.77 SRS
1962 Syracuse Nationals 41-39, 2.24 SRS
1964 St. Louis Hawks 46-34, 1.39 SRS
1965 Cincinnati Royals 48-32, 2.04 SRS
1967 Cincinnati Royals 39-42, -0.23 SRS
1967 Boston Celtics 60-21, 7.24 SRS
1967 San Francisco Warriors 44-37, 2.58 SRS
1968 New York Knicks 43-39, 1.78 SRS
1969 San Francisco Warriors 41-41, -1.53 SRS
1969 Atlanta Hawks 48-34, 2.06 SRS
1970 Phoenix Suns 39-43, -1.66 SRS
1970 Atlanta Hawks 48-34, 0.31 SRS
1971 Chicago Bulls 51-31, 5.47 SRS

Wow, what a murderer’s row! So much stronger teams than what LeBron was beating in the East! Basically, Wilt would usually face one decent team a year (Russell’s Celtics) and lose to them every team even though the supporting talent wasn’t really THAT different. Then, because he loses to Russell 8/9 years, he builds Russell’s legend so much that all of a sudden it’s like it’s an honor to lose to him. LeBron’s average Finals competition has been significantly stronger than an average year of 1960s Celtics and he went 3-5 instead of 1-8.

So you for another time completely ignore that you can't compare raw SRS in 10 teams league to 30 teams league, but you also (for whatever reason) cut Wilt's career to 1971. Why? Who cares that they were the same age when James already has more season played in the league than Wilt.

So you blame Wilt for playing in smaller league but you also blame him for not playing as a teen which was impossible in his era.

I didn’t compare them. I just pointed them out. Also it’s not really true that you can’t compare them. They need a little minor adjustment for you playing each team more times in the regular season, but it’s not that big of an issue. When you’re looking at the Celtics’ competition, it’s a little more relevant of an issue since they were so dominant that they’ll singlehandedly make an opponent look worse than they are by playing them 13 times in a regular season. But if the +2.77 SRS Nationals played Wilt’s 2.77 SRS Warriors 13 teams, you can’t really say that Wilt warped his own competition in the same way. Those extra 10 games mean that maybe they should have been a +3.1 SRS instead of +2.8. It’s not a major factor.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Just looking at 1962
Wilt scored 50 points a game. I did a pace adjustment and got that that would be 38 points a game this year.
Wilt shot 50%. The second scorer on the team Paul Arizon shot 41%. Al Attles shot 47% but the other top 6 minutes per game guys all shot under 42%. I loved that nobody could stay in front of Guy Rogers but he shoots 35%. This team makes it easy to double team Wilt.

Wilt and the Warriors only lose game 7 to the Celtics by 2 points.

How does history change if the 1962 Warriors beat the Celtics and then win the finals against the Lakers?

I have a problem with the level of play in the early 1960s but no individual player dominated the game in his era statistically as much as Wilt dominated the early 1960s.

Some people claim Wilt was better in 1967. I doubt it. I think Wilt peaked Earlier than 1967.

I like peaks. Wilt had the best statistical peak if I cut him slack for not shooting at a higher percentage because his teammates and the league were not shooting well in the early 1960s.

Russell beat Wilt. Russell had the better team and By luck or by grit Russell's teams won the close games. When Wilt got a strong team in 1967 Wilt won.

[kendogg]

Wilt's athletic peak was not 1967. It was the early 60's. He was age 26 in 1962. That is roughly the average physical prime of most people. Unfortunately he had bad teams/coaches through most of those years. 1967 is his best season, though.

[Johnlac1]

Wilt’s all-time playoff record for series was 18-11 and he missed the playoffs right in the heart of his prime.

LeBron’s playoff series record is 35-10 and he led one of the worst supporting casts ever to 66 wins.

In terms of just their impact on winning, LeBron is vastly superior and that doesn’t even factor in how much tougher his competition has been.

Wilt's problem was that his career overlapped that of my primary GOAT candidate, Bill Russell. If you look at his playoff record against anyone but Russell (not saying this is a strong analysis but it's one point) and his series win% is over 80% . . . better than Jordan or LeBron. Of course, if you take Jordan's record against Detroit or LeBron's against whatever team he has lost to most away as well, they slide back ahead of Wilt but not by much. That's why these are the GOAT candidates (along with Kareem).

While a number of teams in sixties had two superstars, the Celtics usually had three.
It wasn't Russell making those last second plays that beat Wilt's teams, it was Sam Jones or Havlicek. And when key players were severely injured i.e. Billy Cunningham it was on Wilt's teams or the Lakers.
Congrats Boston, they had the best team during the sixties hands down, but a few bounces of the ball the other way or injuries to some of their key players (like what happened to Russell in '58 against the Hawks) and Chamberlain's teams and the Lakers have more titles.
With average luck Wilt could have had four or five more titles during his career. He was the unluckiest great player in NBA history with West and Baylor close seconds.

[bledredwine]

It's unfortunate that for Russell and Wilt, they were almost a victim of their times- We rate them where we do, because frankly we have no idea. They had only 12 teams in the league, shorter playoff series, and generally inflated stats. If this wasn't the case, Russell's championships would look as impressive as someone today winning 11 and Wilt's stats would hold up.

What you can look at is how these players did in relationship to the others of their time. Wilt in particular and Kareem, IMO are the only 2 players aside from Jordan that I take very seriously in GOAT debate because they dominated all players of their respective era, with no exceptions (unless Wilt has some important series where he was actually outplayed by Russell, please point it out if so).

Wilt definitely has a case. He's my number 3 after Jordan Kareem. What he did was too freakish to ignore, and he did get his two rings despite weaker supporting casts. Fast forward to today and today's greatest - Some of us hold Lebron to a certain standard of GOAT contention with only 3 rings. So why the hell would that be ok and not Wilt's 2 championships in an era where Russell's teams were far more adversity than any franchise Lebron has faced.

12 years ago, this wasn't the case on realgm. Rings were mostly what mattered and Kobe was playing. Go figure.

The only players who have all bases covered are Jordan Kareem. The player who has the best damned excuse for only missing the rings part of the argument is WIlt. Hence, my top three.

[Pg81]

he has an amazing GOAT argument in my opinion.
6 Finals in 15 seasons.
4x MVP
7x All-NBA 1st Team(often over the MVP)
13x All-Star
his stats are mythical but some have paced adjusted is career to 26.8/12/3.8 on .58% shooting at 40mpg.
but even still
7x scoring champ
11x rebound champ
9x FG% leader
his team averaged as the 3rd best defense in his career. we know his individual defense is DPOY worthy.
just logically a player who is a scoring/rebounding champ leading the league in FG% while playing great defense is likely the GOAT.
he's officially my 4th Greatest of All Time behind Jordan/Kareem/Lebron.

Pace adjustment is nonsense from where I stand since it punishes players who play a lot of minutes and rewards those who play limited minutes. There is a reason why Wilt at his best could average 48.5 minutes in an era with blistering pace while Shaq could not handle more than 40 in one of the slowest era in NBA history. Why should Wilt be penalized? His stats are not just a testament of his great physique and skills but also his amazing endurance. I see no reason why he could not have average 30+ and 15+ in any era depending on the coach and the system he is in. There is a reason why no other center during his era came even close to his numbers, including Kareem who had some years overlapping with Wilt and it was not just pace.
He was also amazingly adaptable who played three very different roles during his career. There is no other all time great who did that. Never mind the official 78 records he holds and arguably another dozen if blocks had been recorded as well has awards like DPOY had been handed out.

[Timmyyy]

I don't quite have Wilt in the GOAT category but have to admit that my knowledge of that era is limited.

But I think we all should be aware when having heated discussions about that era that we miss a lot of information we have for new age eras. So our confidence that our position is right in discussions about that era shouldn't be all that high.

My reasons why i have Wilt below GOAT tier were already stated in this thread. Namely not being able to consistently match Russells teams despite having a lot of different cast (some of them at least as good as Russells) and focussing on different parts of his game at different times and never putting it all together (I suspect that this concentration on his individual play COULD have been a reason why his impact on winning wasn't as big as it could have been). Nontheless I have Wilt in the 2nd tier of players right after the GOAT candidates. But I'm absolutely open minded to be convinced otherwise.

[ty 4191]

I don't think he has one TBH. His statistical case falls apart in the post season, where those massive scoring numbers take huge dips.

Ever study why he had huge statistical dips? It's because he faced the toughest playoff defenses in NBA history among any center.

This from our very own "70's Fan". Mad props to his amazing/arduous work!

I've been collecting stats for a while and I decided to make this post here. I separated some superstars offensive production in playoffs based on defense (RS ORtg) faced. Here are my (random) criteria:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

I started with centers (my favorite position) and I haven't finished yet, but here are some results:

Wilt Chamberlain (1960-68):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (23.75% of playoffs games): 47.7 mpg, 28.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 31.2 ppg on 50.9% FG, 56.8% FT, 53.4% TS (+5.30 rTS%)

Bill Russell (1959-66):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games):--

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1970-80):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games): --

SNIP

Vs. -4.0 or better rDRtg defenses ("Elite Defenses"):

Bill Russell (11.0% of playoffs games): 42.8 mpg, 26.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 16.4 ppg on 42.7% FG, 60.9% FT, 45.4% TS (-1.90 rTS%)

Wilt Chamberlain (52.50% of playoffs games): 47.5 mpg, 28.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 28.1 ppg on 50.8% FG, 50.6% FT, 52.2% TS (+3.84 rTS%)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (26.60% of playoffs games): 44.1 mpg, 15.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 33.3 ppg on 54.5% FG, 72.2% FT, 56.9% TS (+5.28 rTS%)

[algope]

Ty 4191, great job. I really liked your numbers. Waiting for more input when possible.

[ty 4191]

Ty 4191, great job. I really liked your numbers. Waiting for more input when possible.

Thank you, however, thank 70'sFan; it's all his hard work. You might find this discussion fascinating.

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