Game 58: Portland vs Detroit 6:00pm SNW

[d-train]

Portland's bench may yet give this game away...

Pistons have their best players on the bench. We started our best lineup.

[d-train]

Ariza fouled Rose and the ball was out of bounds off Ariza, but we get the ball.

[d-train]

Bruce Brown is the best player on the Pistons team.

[d-train]

CJ is a choker on the FT line

[Epicurus]

+ 21 when starters on the court, win by 3. Really, really bad reserves.

[Epicurus]

+ 21 when starters on the court, win by 3. Really, really bad reserves.

[d-train]

A win that doesn't inspire confidence of getting future wins.

[d-train]

+ 21 when starters on the court, win by 3. Really, really bad reserves.

Maybe our reserves are bad, but Pistons had their best players on the bench. They planned to give up points to our starting lineup.

[Norm2953]

This type of game does give ammo to all those threads we'll see in the off season of what Portland's
return if they traded CJ. The guy does seem to step up his game when Dame is out which in a
bad draft/free agent class might him a marketable commodity for a team like Philly who could
use CJ.

[Brandon-Clyde]

+ 21 when starters on the court, win by 3. Really, really bad reserves.

On the plus side it is possible that 3 of our starters tonight will be bench players next season as Anthony, Hassan and Trent are replaced by Nurkic,Collins and Lillard. If healthy and we resign Hassan Portland could be a very deep team next season.

[d-train]

This type of game does give ammo to all those threads we'll see in the off season of what Portland's
return if they traded CJ. The guy does seem to step up his game when Dame is out which in a
bad draft/free agent class might him a marketable commodity for a team like Philly who could
use CJ.

Every team could use CJ. Smart organizations don't trade players like CJ. Fans don't need to smart, so they don't need to put a whole lot of thought into their ideas.

[Brandon-Clyde]

This type of game does give ammo to all those threads we'll see in the off season of what Portland's
return if they traded CJ. The guy does seem to step up his game when Dame is out which in a
bad draft/free agent class might him a marketable commodity for a team like Philly who could
use CJ.

The problem with trading with Philly is they would probably only offer Tobias and I think that is a lateral move at best with Tobias earning more money. Philly would need to add value in my opinion and it would need to be significant value.

[zzaj]

This type of game does give ammo to all those threads we'll see in the off season of what Portland's
return if they traded CJ. The guy does seem to step up his game when Dame is out which in a
bad draft/free agent class might him a marketable commodity for a team like Philly who could
use CJ.

I sure hope that Olshey sells that narrative...but I think the chances of him letting go of CJ are next to none.

And who on Philly? Simmons has been thrown around, but I don't think he really works in a Stotts system because he can't shoot. That could end up a great move or a huge bust move. The Blazers would be taking on payroll too. Likewise, Tobias Harris is an option, and would be good in a Stotts system...but his contract is bigger/worse than CJ's, his injury history is a major concern, and he's settled into being a PF the past few years--the position that Collins is ostensibly slated into.

[Sinobas]

I think it's time to reconsider the CJ as backup PG idea. Simons is simply atrocious.

We could do a 3 guard rotation of CJ/Dame/Trent.

[d-train]

I think it's time to reconsider the CJ as backup PG idea. Simons is simply atrocious.

We could do a 3 guard rotation of CJ/Dame/Trent.

What is there to reconsider? There has never been any doubt CJ can play PG. He's a SG/combo guard. The reason to have a 3rd PG is to maximize the time Lillard and CJ can play together. If CJ backs up Lillard, that's less time our best 2 players are in the game together.

Plus, if Simons role was simplified to the role Trent is playing. I'm not so sure Simons wouldn't be playing better than Trent.

[JRoy]

I think it's time to reconsider the CJ as backup PG idea. Simons is simply atrocious.

We could do a 3 guard rotation of CJ/Dame/Trent.

What is there to reconsider? There has never been any doubt CJ can play PG. He's a SG/combo guard. The reason to have a 3rd PG is to maximize the time Lillard and CJ can play together. If CJ backs up Lillard, that's less time our best 2 players are in the game together.

Plus, if Simons role was simplified to the role Trent is playing. I'm not so sure Simons wouldn't be playing better than Trent.

I can’t agree with that.

Simons has been trash most of the season and Trent looks like a rotation player.

[monopoman]

This type of game does give ammo to all those threads we'll see in the off season of what Portland's
return if they traded CJ. The guy does seem to step up his game when Dame is out which in a
bad draft/free agent class might him a marketable commodity for a team like Philly who could
use CJ.

I would love to see CJ's numbers for every game when Dame sits, he seems to play about 2-3 times better when Lillard plays 0 minutes.

[d-train]

This type of game does give ammo to all those threads we'll see in the off season of what Portland's
return if they traded CJ. The guy does seem to step up his game when Dame is out which in a
bad draft/free agent class might him a marketable commodity for a team like Philly who could
use CJ.

I would love to see CJ's numbers for every game when Dame sits, he seems to play about 2-3 times better when Lillard plays 0 minutes.

Assuming your representation is accurate, it's not evidence that CJ plays better without Lillard. It's evidence that players have different roles in a team effort. And, a simplistic review of statistics is not an accurate way to compare players. The role a player plays to support his team has more to do with statistical production than the players basketball ability.

[Wizenheimer]

This type of game does give ammo to all those threads we'll see in the off season of what Portland's
return if they traded CJ. The guy does seem to step up his game when Dame is out which in a
bad draft/free agent class might him a marketable commodity for a team like Philly who could
use CJ.

I would love to see CJ's numbers for every game when Dame sits, he seems to play about 2-3 times better when Lillard plays 0 minutes.

and Dame puts up bigger numbers when CJ doesn't play. Last season I think Dame averaged close to 34-10 without CJ

the important number to look at is usage rate. Against the pistons, CJ's was 37.4% when his season mark is 26.1%. His season average for FGA's is 19; in the Detroit game he had 30. CJ can put up big numbers when he doesn't have to share the ball with a better player. I think Blazer edge pointed out that CJ's usage rate with Dame out was around 35%. There's no way he'd use that many possessions with Dame on the floor

if you compare CJ with people around that level of usage in terms of TS%, it looks like this:

Giannis Antetokounmpo - 37.8%/.611
Luca Doncic - 37.3%/.591
James Harden - 36.6%/.622
Trae Young - 34.8%/.602
Bradley Beal - 34.2%/.578
Russel Westbrook - 34.2%/.533
Kawhi Leonard - 33.7%/.580
Joel Embiid - 32.4%/.591
CJ McCollum - 32-35%/.537

Damian Lillard - 30.6%/.621

Westbrook is the only outlier in terms of efficiency, other than CJ, and Westbrook is a unique, dynamic player with highly questionable BBIQ. He also has 200 more FT's, 150 more rebounds, and 120 more assists. There's no good reason why Westbrook should average 9.3 assists/100-possessions while playing with Harden's 36.6% usage rate, while CJ averages 5.3 playing with Dame's 30.6% usage rate

and of course, if a team has a high usage player, they need high efficiency from him. All those guys except for CJ and Westbrook carry TS% marks around 60% or higher. The average TS% in the NBA over the last few years has been around 55%. CJ is well below that. CJ averages 1.13 points/shot while Portland as a team, averages 1.24. You don't want CJ with a high usage rate

finally, the important number: in the last 4 seasons when CJ has been lead guard and Dame was out, Portland was 9-11. If you exclude this season, the Blazer record without Dame & with CJ is 8-8

meanwhile, over the same time, when Dame has been lead with CJ out, the record is 12-2. That's 8-8 vs 12-2; that reveals a lot more than CJ's box scores

[zzaj]

This type of game does give ammo to all those threads we'll see in the off season of what Portland's
return if they traded CJ. The guy does seem to step up his game when Dame is out which in a
bad draft/free agent class might him a marketable commodity for a team like Philly who could
use CJ.

Shhhh! Wiz, you’re wrecking CJ’s trade value! That is, when Olshey’s pigs fly of course...

I would love to see CJ's numbers for every game when Dame sits, he seems to play about 2-3 times better when Lillard plays 0 minutes.

and Dame puts up bigger numbers when CJ doesn't play. Last season I think Dame averaged close to 34-10 without CJ

the important number to look at is usage rate. Against the pistons, CJ's was 37.4% when his season mark is 26.1%. His season average for FGA's is 19; in the Detroit game he had 30. CJ can put up big numbers when he doesn't have to share the ball with a better player. I think Blazer edge pointed out that CJ's usage rate with Dame out was around 35%. There's no way he'd use that many possessions with Dame on the floor

if you compare CJ with people around that level of usage in terms of TS%, it looks like this:

Giannis Antetokounmpo - 37.8%/.611
Luca Doncic - 37.3%/.591
James Harden - 36.6%/.622
Trae Young - 34.8%/.602
Bradley Beal - 34.2%/.578
Russel Westbrook - 34.2%/.533
Kawhi Leonard - 33.7%/.580
Joel Embiid - 32.4%/.591
CJ McCollum - 32-35%/.537

Damian Lillard - 30.6%/.621

Westbrook is the only outlier in terms of efficiency, other than CJ, and Westbrook is a unique, dynamic player with highly questionable BBIQ. He also has 200 more FT's, 150 more rebounds, and 120 more assists. There's no good reason why Westbrook should average 9.3 assists/100-possessions while playing with Harden's 36.6% usage rate, while CJ averages 5.3 playing with Dame's 30.6% usage rate

and of course, if a team has a high usage player, they need high efficiency from him. All those guys except for CJ and Westbrook carry TS% marks around 60% or higher. The average TS% in the NBA over the last few years has been around 55%. CJ is well below that. CJ averages 1.13 points/shot while Portland as a team, averages 1.24. You don't want CJ with a high usage rate

finally, the important number: in the last 4 seasons when CJ has been lead guard and Dame was out, Portland was 9-11. If you exclude this season, the Blazer record without Dame & with CJ is 8-8

meanwhile, over the same time, when Dame has been lead with CJ out, the record is 12-2. That's 8-8 vs 12-2; that reveals a lot more than CJ's box scores