Jokic vs Embiid: On-Court Impact

[Mickey8]

Jokic works from both inside and out , it depends of the flow of the game and the match up's.

[maxpower8888]

I think you have it take into account their supporting casts when looking at on/off net rating. It's easier for Joel's supporting guys to play better when he's on the court because they're (for the most part) better players so when the defense has to focus more on Joel, they perform better than Jokic's teammates (again, overall, not every single supporting player is better on Philly).

[_qubik]

Jokic is better, probably will go down as an all time great offensive player, he is durable, he make it possible to play with a lot of gunners and you dont actually need a guard to carey the ball and orchestrate the game for you.

Its hard to envision a team winning with obly one star, and thats the number Nuggets have, Murray is a good player, he goes supernova in the playoffs sometimes, MPJ is promising, both guys have healthy issues, and arent as good as some other teams co stars, and this core is locked for quite a long time now.

Embiid is a great bucket getter, he is one of the best post players in the league, he shoots, finish well, denolish the mismatches and is insane value as a pick and roll partner, he draws a lot of fouls too. On the other end he is a hell of a defender, he can protect the rim, grab all the rebounds and is somewhat mobile for his huge frame, he is far from being the most complete between the too, but I think its easier to assemble a team with Embiid. His healthy is a big issue.

To more points to ass to my vision, for me neither will win a champioship as the best player of a team, I dont think they impact the game enough, I'm saying outside numbers and metrics, its about getting the job done both ends when it matters, Embiid might suffer on offense, and Jokic on defense.

For me pairing them with another great star, the ones like Giannis, Lebron, Curry, Kawhi etc would make them the best "second options" in the league. And is this scenario I would pick Embiid, for me it would work as AD with Lebron in the title year.

One more point, in my mind if both guys changed teams, it would be nice for both. Nuggets would be much more balanced with Embiid as a defensive anchor, similar to Jazz that doesnt have perimeter stoppers but Gobert makes them a good defensive player, and the Sixers would be much more flexible and dangerous pairing Jokic and Simmons, one covering for the other weakness and playing as frontcourt mates

[Harry Garris]

I think both are a bit overrated, they both need a shot creator at the end of the day to do real damage in playoffs.

They don't necessarily need a shot creator they just need someone else who can provide star level impact in the playoffs. The Nuggets could potentially have that with Murray if he ever gets fully healthy. The Sixers have never had that with Ben Simmons since he has clear weaknesses in the playoffs that prevent him from being as good as he could be.

[kuclas]

It will be interesting once sixers/Denver get into playoffs. I don’t know what sixers seeding will be depending how much time embiid misses. They are 7-2 with him. 3-6 without him.

Jokic may or may not have Murray with him. And Murray won’t be up to full speed even if he comes back in March at the earliest. And no MPJ either.

[FinnTheHuman]

Yep, as Nate said, OP is completely ignorant to the impact of minutes played per game and the injuries on net rtg or on/off.

And the other thing is that this is like arguing if Anthony Edwards is a better dunker than the professional dunkers. Well, he isn't, but if he put all his practice time into it, he probably would be.

Same goes for Jokic's peak game impact relative to Embiid: you don't know if Jokic isn't getting jacked because he can't or because he understands he can't carry all that muscle on his body if he wants to stay healthy.

Imo Philly fans should be mad at Embiid that he hasn't tried to slim down for years now. Maybe if he did slim down, he actually wouldn't miss so much time, but then his bully ball takes a hit, and so do his net rating and on/off numbers.

Jokic is trying to be as good as he can be at NBA basketball, and he's evidently better at NBA basketball than Embiid, because NBA basketball doesn't equate to raw on-court impact.

[Ambrose]

I despise this argument. The massive gap in durability is a big reason why Embiid has better on/off numbers. His team plays a large percentage of the season without him, and being one of the best players in the league, that hurts. Jokic is there day in and day out, and the less amount of time his team plays with backups on the court, the better his team does.

[BigGargamel]

The fact that people still don't think Jokic is a good defender shows they really don't pay much attention/speak about teams and players they don't know about. The advanced nerd stats actually have him quite similar to Embiid.

[BelgradeNugget]

I disagree.

The key difference is that Jokic is a great shooter and operates well out of the high post. That leaves room for Simmons to make cuts and exploit mismatches. Embiid does all of his work in the post, leaving nowhere for Simmons to be effective.

How can you say Jokic is a great shooter but Embiid isn't? That's nonsense. This year, Embiid is only taking 2.4 FGA in the restricted area and 3.2 in the paint outside of the RA. Jokic is taking 6.6(!) in the RA and an additional 4.2 in the paint outside of the RA. They're about equivalent in % and shot attempts from distance, and Embiid takes 4 more shots in the midrange than Jokic does.

The only big man shooter better than Embiid is KAT, who Simmons would look better beside. I still put Jokic above Embiid because his passing makes him much more versatile and more useful offensively IMO, but Embiid is a great shooter for a big man. One of the best of all time.

Embiid is also a great shooter, but most of his outside shots take place out on the wing, and he is mostly just looking to take that midrange jumper or maneuver into a post up. It's an offensive set designed to put Embiid in isolation as a scorer. It's certainly effective, but it's not an ideal set for Embiid to be a playmaker and utilize Simmons effectively off ball.

Jokic does his work from the high post. He is the team's PG, generating offense for everyone as they cut around him. I think Simmons can fill a role as a cutter in that system far easier.

Honestly I can't see how anyone can even make a threat like this because it is not worth arguing, but there are things that are easy to check. So here it is

Joel Embiid shooting by distance
Restricted area 63.3 / In the paint 41.4 / Mid range 38.9 / Corner 3 (0/0) / Above the break 3 39.4

Nikola Jokic shooting by distance
Restricted area 74.2 / In the paint 55.9 / Mid range 56.7 / Corner 3 66.7 / Above the break 3 39.7

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting/?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=Totals&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*joel%20embiid
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting/?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=Totals&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*nikola%20jokic&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Should I say it is NOT EVEN CLOSE.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I still have Jokic over Embiid, as it is hard for me to not see what he is capable of and not believe the box-score doesn't have merit.

However the OP does have a bit of a point. If we look at their PS play onl, Embiid has a larger plus-minus foot print than Jokic.

Per the plus-minus advanced metrics out there.

AuPM:

Embiid
18: 3.3
19: 4.2
20: 1.6
21: 4.5

Jokic

19: 5.6
20: 3.4
21: 2.7

MULTI-YEAR Playoff LEBRON

Embiid

17-19: 8.25
18-20: 6.08
19-21: 8

Jokic

17-19: 4.10
18-20: 3.38
19-21: 2.75

Multi-year PS PIPM is no longer available, but Embiid typically rated out more favorably than Jokic as well in the PS.

I can see where George Marcus is coming from and it was only until recently where Jokic really ascended to being a really impactful defender (we will see if this holds up in the PS). To me, this speaks more to impactful Embiid's rim protection can be, however, I still have reservations about him as an offensive hub. Jokic to me invokes more confidence in me to be a #1 option on a championship team, and therefore I still side with him. I won't fault anyone for taking Embiid, I just think Jokic's skillset is too outlier to pass up.

[Johnny Bball]

On/off is worthless here. Just showing the disparity in benches.

But let me guess ... it looks like Embiid? Yeah I beg to differ though.

[GeorgeMarcus]

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RAPM factors in strength of teammates and opponents.

2021: Embiid +3.00 / Jokic +1.77
2020: Embiid +1.22 / Jokic +1.12
2019: Embiid +2.83 / Jokic +1.59
2018: Embiid +3.11 / Jokic +2.54
2017: Embiid +1.40 / Jokic +2.02

(2016: Jokic +1.71)

Source - http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=1509949181

Not only does JoJo trump Jokic here, but he dominates in playoff RAPM too (unfortunately I can't find the link at the moment.)

I'm hearing a lot of rebuttal about why my argument was invalid, but not much in the form of tangible defense of Jokic's impact > Embiid. As I mentioned in the OP, Embiid's defensive impact and offensive gravity (yes, more than Jokic's) simply aren't captured in box scores. The only argument I understand is availability, but I specified that we are discussing on-court impact.

[GeorgeMarcus]

I just have a tough time putting much weight in those stats, especially when they indicated Embiid has a much better net rating in the playoffs... yet we've seen Jokic be much, much better than Embiid in the playoffs. Without his second star, Jokic dominated a matchup against the Blazers and carried his team to the second round. Without his second star, Joel got pathetically swept by a team inferior to the Blazers in the Celtics. Maybe I'm not seeing the bigger picture because Jokic is notoriously clutch while Joel is a massive end-of-game playoff choker (crazy that he escaped blame for playing like garbage in the 4th quarters against the Hawks). It could also be that Joel has a much worse roster around him but I struggle to see how that's the case when Jokic had guys like Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers as his starting backcourt.

I don't know. The netrating complicates the issue for sure, because Jokic is clearly better with the eye test and when you look at advanced stats (which OP conveniently disregards). But net rating does matter.

I think Jokic has looked better in the playoffs for 2 reasons:
1) box stats
2) his team having more success

However, the Nuggets without Jokic had a higher Net Rtg than the Sixers without Embiid, and the Sixers with Embiid had a (way) higher Net Rtg than the Nuggets with Jokic. Again I think this comes back to defensive impact above all. Jokic simply doesn't have enough of an advantage offensively to overcome Embiid's advantage on that end of the court.

[Jables]

Its not even comparable, Denver without Jokic is like the team made of G league players, they look awful, Jokic have horrible team surrounding him , but when healthy he still makes them one of the top teams in the West , Jokic has more impact on winning than Embiid.

I like how we're just ignoring the SIxers have 2 wins out of their last 9 since Embiid was out.

And one of those wins had Jokic playing, yikes.

[GSP]

I think both are a bit overrated, they both need a shot creator at the end of the day to do real damage in playoffs.

How many big men in history didnt need a shot creator? Do you think Shaq is overrated? He didnt do **** without Penny, Kobe or Wade

[kinggnik87]

Most of you still say Jokic has the weaker defense shows how outdated you guys are. What's the point of discussing things you know nothing about?

[GeorgeMarcus]

Most of you still say Jokic has the weaker defense shows how outdated you guys are. What's the point of discussing things you know nothing about?

Embiid is one of, if not the best defenders in the league. Jokic is an ok defender but he's definitely not Embiid's level.

[rand]

I think both are a bit overrated, they both need a shot creator at the end of the day to do real damage in playoffs.

How many big men in history didnt need a shot creator? Do you think Shaq is overrated? He didnt do **** without Penny, Kobe or Wade

Shaq's Lakers stats when Kobe was out prove this is a lousy argument

[Funcrusher]

Most of you still say Jokic has the weaker defense shows how outdated you guys are. What's the point of discussing things you know nothing about?

Embiid is one of, if not the best defenders in the league. Jokic is an ok defender but he's definitely not Embiid's level.

Jokic this year is playing All-NBA level defense. He's not just "ok" on that end anymore. Also I take umbrage with the claim that Embiid's impact on the defensive end, even in the past, trumps Jokic's offensive impact. Jokic last year had probably a top 20 offensive peak OAT. Embiid just isn't that, no matter how you sway it. And I understand the importance of net rtg, but simply looking at it on it's face and making wholesale judgements simply isn't a practical way of evaluating actual, tangible impact. In fact, I remember Ben Taylor speaking on the fact that Embiid's net rtg and general plus minus stuff historically is inflated by the sixers reliance on Embiid's rim protection anchoring their defense and the dearth of reliable backup bigs they've had. And while again, I understand the inclination to trend towards valuing metrics that weigh on court impact more than box stats, box stats are still fairly important and cannot simply be handwaved away. And by most measures, Joker is putting up a near GOAT-level peak ATM, which of course can obviously change. And even then, IMO it's still rather close between them but it's hard for me to swallow an argument that Embiid is better, particularly one built entirely on the back of net rtg.

[GSP]

I think both are a bit overrated, they both need a shot creator at the end of the day to do real damage in playoffs.

How many big men in history didnt need a shot creator? Do you think Shaq is overrated? He didnt do **** without Penny, Kobe or Wade

Shaq's Lakers stats when Kobe was out prove this is a lousy argument

He said to do damage in the playoffs not to put up stats. Jokic and Embiid put up plenty of stats themselves.