The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Why bother with this thread, seriously

Because… maximum pain

[Jay81]

what a disaster of a thread

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can already tell who the zards pick will be. Who will be the safest yet somewhat low ceiling player in the draft? Yup. Kris Murray. I actually like him - he's just like his brother but a year behind. Might be an even purer shooter]. Can he defend? Probably OK, but just barely. He follows the kispert mold.

e's

He’s clean cut. No dreads. Conservative haircut. Light-skinned. Not a quick twitch player or a freakish athlete. Projects to be a contributor who will hit open shots but not break other players down off his dribble.

Definitely a Tommy type player. Very vanilla. He’s already 22 or so years old. Low risk, moderate floor but not a high reward, either.

[Ruzious]

I can already tell who the zards pick will be. Who will be the safest yet somewhat low ceiling player in the draft? Yup. Kris Murray. I actually like him - he's just like his brother but a year behind. Might be an even purer shooter]. Can he defend? Probably OK, but just barely. He follows the kispert mold.

e's

He’s clean cut. No dreads. Conservative haircut. Light-skinned. Not a quick twitch player or a freakish athlete. Projects to be a contributor who will hit open shots but not break other players down off his dribble.

Definitely a Tommy type player. Very vanilla. He’s already 22 or so years old. Low risk, moderate floor but not a high reward, either.

You and I can't help it - I gotta 2nd rounder for you - Jordan Hawkins from UConn. He's averaging 13.6 3's attempted per 40 minutes and makes almost 40%. The new microwave. Problem is - he makes only 40% of his 2's. And the Wiz traded their 2nd round pick, but I think they have Boston's - which will be late 50's - whoop de do! And with our luck, we'll be slated to pick 15th in the 1st round - what with our top 14 protection in the Westbrook/Wall trade.

[AFM]

I think Nate has pointed out that 2nd round picks are frequently available for cash. Not sure if that still holds true.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can already tell who the zards pick will be. Who will be the safest yet somewhat low ceiling player in the draft? Yup. Kris Murray. I actually like him - he's just like his brother but a year behind. Might be an even purer shooter]. Can he defend? Probably OK, but just barely. He follows the kispert mold.

e's

He’s clean cut. No dreads. Conservative haircut. Light-skinned. Not a quick twitch player or a freakish athlete. Projects to be a contributor who will hit open shots but not break other players down off his dribble.

Definitely a Tommy type player. Very vanilla. He’s already 22 or so years old. Low risk, moderate floor but not a high reward, either.

You and I can't help it - I gotta 2nd rounder for you - Jordan Hawkins from UConn. He's averaging 13.6 3's attempted per 40 minutes and makes almost 40%. The new microwave. Problem is - he makes only 40% of his 2's. And the Wiz traded their 2nd round pick, but I think they have Boston's - which will be late 50's - whoop de do! And with our luck, we'll be slated to pick 15th in the 1st round - what with our top 14 protection in the Westbrook/Wall trade.

Nice find, Ruzious!

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/.amp/prospect-profiles/nba-draft-scouting-report-uconns-jordan-hawkins

SEP 17, 2022 8:00 AM EDT
NBA Draft Scouting Report: UConn's Jordan Hawkins

Scouting Report: Jordan Hawkins
BY DRAFT DIGEST STAFF

<snip>


A versatile combo guard, Hawkins is a really good athlete. He’s got ideal NBA size and plays smart on both ends. It will be interesting to see if he ends up being more of a point guard or off-ball guard at the next level. He’s got upside at both positions, so it may depend on the personnel Hawkins is on the floor with

.

Ruzious, I hope you’re feeling well and your recovery is going great. It’s nice hearing from you!

About Jordan Hawkins: Dan Hurley is a tremendous coach. They’re super competitive. I recall hearing the kid’s name over and over.

Bonus: He’s a Dematha kid!

He’s projected as a round two pick but might be underrated.

Jordan Goodwin, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Haliburton, Wesley Matthews, and years back Jimmy Butler all fit a pattern of being drafted way too low.

Jordan Hawkins…

[doclinkin]

what a disaster of a thread

Yeah yeah yeah but what is the snow forecast for the winter?

[Dat2U]

Were 1.5 games out of the 6th best odds (8.3%) for the Wemby sweep stakes. Our stars are injury prone. We can't trade a 1st due to the protection on the '23rd 1st. I like our position at the moment. Only San Antonio is in full out tank mode so far. We just outtanked the 5th worst team in a game they desperately were trying to give away while were supposedly trying AND healthy lol.

[payitforward]

I think Nate has pointed out that 2nd round picks are frequently available for cash. Not sure if that still holds true.

We've seen much less of that lately, R2 picks sold for $$$. Last instance I can recall was in 2017 -- maybe 2018....?

GMs seem to have figured out that a corollary of the fact that they keep picking guys who stink in the top 10-20 is that there are guys who are really good all up & down R2.

Edit: Think that last point is a myth?

Here are 6 lottery picks from 2018:

#2 Marvin Bagley
#6 Mo Bamba
#7 Wendell Carter
#9 Kevin Knox
#11 Jerome Robinson
#16 Zhaire Smith

Here are 10 guys taken in R2 that same year -- all of whom have worked out way better than any of the above:

Jevon Carter
Jalen Brunson
Devonte Graham
Mitchell Robinson
Jarred Vanderbilt
Bruce Brown
Hamidou Diallo
De’Anthony Melton
Keita Bates-Diop
Shake Milton

It's pretty much the same every year.

[NatP4]

This team needs Brandon Miller.

Trade off Beal, Kuzma, and Hachimura. Shut down Porzingis. Tank into the top 5-10.

Goodwin/Dotson
Davis/Kispert
Avdija
Miller
Porzingis/Gafford

[Kanyewest]

I think Nate has pointed out that 2nd round picks are frequently available for cash. Not sure if that still holds true.

We've seen much less of that lately, R2 picks sold for $$$. Last instance I can recall was in 2017 -- maybe 2018....?

GMs seem to have figured out that a corollary of the fact that they keep picking guys who stink in the top 10-20 is that there are guys who are really good all up & down R2.

Edit: Think that last point is a myth?

Here are 6 lottery picks from 2018:

#2 Marvin Bagley
#6 Mo Bamba
#7 Wendell Carter
#9 Kevin Knox
#11 Jerome Robinson
#16 Zhaire Smith

Here are 10 guys taken in R2 that same year -- all of whom have worked out way better than any of the above:

Jevon Carter
Jalen Brunson
Devonte Graham
Mitchell Robinson
Jarred Vanderbilt
Bruce Brown
Hamidou Diallo
De’Anthony Melton
Keita Bates-Diop
Shake Milton

It's pretty much the same every year.

OTOH in the first round

#1 - DeAndre Ayton
#3- Luka Doncic
#4- Jaren Jackson Jr
#5- Trae Young
#10- Mikal Bridges
#11- SGA
#12- Miles Bridges (well before he got in trouble)
#14- Michael Porter Jr.
#19- Kevin Heurter
#24- Anfernee Simons
#27- Robert Williams

[Dat2U]

I think Nate has pointed out that 2nd round picks are frequently available for cash. Not sure if that still holds true.

We've seen much less of that lately, R2 picks sold for $$$. Last instance I can recall was in 2017 -- maybe 2018....?

GMs seem to have figured out that a corollary of the fact that they keep picking guys who stink in the top 10-20 is that there are guys who are really good all up & down R2.

Edit: Think that last point is a myth?

Here are 6 lottery picks from 2018:

#2 Marvin Bagley
#6 Mo Bamba
#7 Wendell Carter
#9 Kevin Knox
#11 Jerome Robinson
#16 Zhaire Smith

Here are 10 guys taken in R2 that same year -- all of whom have worked out way better than any of the above:

Jevon Carter
Jalen Brunson
Devonte Graham
Mitchell Robinson
Jarred Vanderbilt
Bruce Brown
Hamidou Diallo
De’Anthony Melton
Keita Bates-Diop
Shake Milton

It's pretty much the same every year.

Another year, another rehashing of your stale old argument regarding the greatness of acquiring 2nd round picks.

The Wizards nailing a bunch of 2nd round picks would not change the calculus. Getting a Bates-Diop or Diallo in the 2nd round every year will not ultimately change the direction of the franchise. Sure its always good to find useful role players but you could have an entire bench of them and not see a significant improvement in the win total. The team needs dynamic talent. Not just starting quality talent but high level starters. Guys good enough that we no longer have to consider Kuzma as part of a big three. A play maker dynamic enough that were no longer starting Monte Morris. You running down a list of fringe talents & 2nd round picks that can crack a rotation isn't an impressive argument.

[payitforward]

I think Nate has pointed out that 2nd round picks are frequently available for cash. Not sure if that still holds true.

We've seen much less of that lately, R2 picks sold for $$$. Last instance I can recall was in 2017 -- maybe 2018....?

GMs seem to have figured out that a corollary of the fact that they keep picking guys who stink in the top 10-20 is that there are guys who are really good all up & down R2.

Edit: Think that last point is a myth?

Here are 6 lottery picks from 2018:

#2 Marvin Bagley
#6 Mo Bamba
#7 Wendell Carter
#9 Kevin Knox
#11 Jerome Robinson
#16 Zhaire Smith

Here are 10 guys taken in R2 that same year -- all of whom have worked out way better than any of the above:

Jevon Carter
Jalen Brunson
Devonte Graham
Mitchell Robinson
Jarred Vanderbilt
Bruce Brown
Hamidou Diallo
De’Anthony Melton
Keita Bates-Diop
Shake Milton

It's pretty much the same every year.

OTOH in the first round

#1 - DeAndre Ayton
#3- Luka Doncic
#4- Jaren Jackson Jr
#5- Trae Young
#10- Mikal Bridges
#11- SGA
#12- Miles Bridges (well before he got in trouble)
#14- Michael Porter Jr.
#19- Kevin Heurter
#24- Anfernee Simons
#27- Robert Williams

Yes, of course!

No one -- not I, not anyone else -- suggests that it's better to have, e.g. the #22 pick than to have the #12 pick. That's not the point.

&, for that matter, picks 1-3 are statistically above average over time.
Beyond #3, it makes little difference where you pick -- above all, because you can trade a single higher pick for multiple ones lower down.

OTOH, according to your list, in 2018 of the 25 R1 picks after Trae Young fully 18 of them are negligible. #s 6, 7, 8 , 9, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 28, 29 & 30 are negligible.

&, you know what, you're right: a dozen or more players taken in R2 or signed undrafted have been better than most of those 18 R1 picks you thought (rightly) weren't worth mentioning.

[payitforward]

Let me make this point from another angle -- & please don't take this the wrong way.

OKC has a guy on their roster who's signed for the next few years for about $30m total -- a guy who went undrafted that same year of 2018. Do you know who he is w/o looking up their roster? If you can't simply say his name in your head right now, without doing any research, that probably means you don't pay enough attention to the draft & its history to have developed an objective & informed perspective on this issue.

Again... please do not take that the wrong way: there are without a doubt a bunch of subjects you know about which I don't know anywhere near enough to make a meaningful comment.

There are two meaningful factors in drafting. The first is the ability to judge talent. The second is an understanding of the role of uncertainty.

Judging talent is relatively easy at both ends of the spectrum -- guys with a ton of talent & guys who don't really have an ounce of NBA-relevant talent.

Note that I wrote "relatively" easy. That doesn't mean it's actually easy. Because, it isn't.

For example, year after year over the last 15-20 drafts, 1 of the top 3 guys picked has been a total disappointment. Year on year.

Worse yet, over that same period 2 of the top 4 have been. Year after year after year.

It hasn't always been 2 total busts out of the top 4 guys picked (though that has happened an awful lot!), but it's definitely been 2 of the first four turning into at best meh NBA players but usually much worse.

Or, Hell, even worse -- 8 of the top 10 picks in 2006 had (at best!) terrible careers or (at worse) were total busts. 7 of the failures lacked the talent, 1 had a career-ending injury early on. That guy went #6, btw, & was a ton more talented than 4 of the 5 guys picked before him.

The #11 pick was better than all but 1 of the guys who went before him. Then again, the guy who went #24 was better than all but 1 of the top 10. Not to mention the guy who went #47 -- that guy too was better than 9 of the top 10 players picked in the draft.

[FAH1223]

The season is going off the rails guys

Wizards will keep the 2023 1st rounder

[payitforward]

I think Nate has pointed out that 2nd round picks are frequently available for cash. Not sure if that still holds true.

We've seen much less of that lately, R2 picks sold for $$$. Last instance I can recall was in 2017 -- maybe 2018....?

GMs seem to have figured out that a corollary of the fact that they keep picking guys who stink in the top 10-20 is that there are guys who are really good all up & down R2.

Edit: Think that last point is a myth?

Here are 6 lottery picks from 2018:

#2 Marvin Bagley
#6 Mo Bamba
#7 Wendell Carter
#9 Kevin Knox
#11 Jerome Robinson
#16 Zhaire Smith

Here are 10 guys taken in R2 that same year -- all of whom have worked out way better than any of the above:

Jevon Carter
Jalen Brunson
Devonte Graham
Mitchell Robinson
Jarred Vanderbilt
Bruce Brown
Hamidou Diallo
De’Anthony Melton
Keita Bates-Diop
Shake Milton

It's pretty much the same every year.

Another year, another rehashing of your stale old argument regarding the greatness of acquiring 2nd round picks.

The Wizards nailing a bunch of 2nd round picks would not change the calculus. Getting a Bates-Diop or Diallo in the 2nd round every year will not ultimately change the direction of the franchise. Sure its always good to find useful role players but you could have an entire bench of them and not see a significant improvement in the win total. The team needs dynamic talent. Not just starting quality talent but high level starters. Guys good enough that we no longer have to consider Kuzma as part of a big three. A play maker dynamic enough that were no longer starting Monte Morris. You running down a list of fringe talents & 2nd round picks that can crack a rotation isn't an impressive argument.

You're making an empty point. First off, if you have a chance at, as you say, a "dynamic talent," go for it. Of course! Duh!

In 2022, if we'd had the #5 pick I would have absolutely have taken Jaden Ivey! I wouldn't have traded down from that pick. In fact, had there been a way, I would have been enthusiastic about trading up to get Ivey -- & I do mean him in particular, not Banchero or Murray, who aren't hyper-high-potential types. I'd have traded up for Daniels as well. Tho, obviously, I would have given more for a shot at Ivey.

But there was no way to trade up from 10 it seems.

Back to that subject in a minute. The problem with your point about "dynamic talent" is that you are so eager to convince yourself that you over-argue it. You make it some kind of absolute & wind up convincing yourself on the subject.

I assume you remember writing in 2021 that you'd have taken Sharife Cooper at 15 & been happy about it.

Sharife went at 48, & he's playing in the G League (playing well too! I'm not dinging him: he was on my list for R2 had we been smart enough to acquire the right pick to use on him).

But, you don't take a guy at pick n if it's obvious you can get him at pick n+20. Period. Not even if you think he's ridiculously underrated & totally a "dynamic talent."

Now... you were certainly correct about Haliburton in 2020 -- & clear & convincing too. I'm not criticizing you on the draft. Not at all. I'm responding to your criticism of me. Which is off base.

The draft is a market. Managing it well means getting the most possible value out of it, year after year. That's a very different strategic proposition from "dynamic talent," even though, as I say, the latter is your best hope for success.

Thus, I sure would have traded down from #10 this year -- rather than take Johnny Davis, that is. Who, btw, I believe you've suggested might be a pretty good pick -- or so I recall. Correct me if not.

Main point is that, like you, I'd have been looking for "dynamic talent," & if I was convinced I couldn't get, say, Tari Eason (or Jalen Williams or maybe 1 or 2 other candidates) with a trade down, then I would I have used the #10 on Eason.

It was because I thought I could that I wanted to trade down -- not to achieve the dumb goal you ascribe to me -- i.e. multiple lower picks -- tho I like that too, once you have a way to get that dynamic talent, or if there's just no way to get one/.

OTOH, I thought Memphis' trade to get Boston's #30 in 2020 & take Desmond Bane was incredibly brilliant -- & infuriating, since Boston had offered us that pick for Bertans only a few months earlier!

I'd say Bane has had a big impact in Memphis, wouldn't you? I'd say Brandon Clarke has too. In fact, John Konchar also has -- no one would call him "a dynamic talent," would they? Gets a lot done all the same.

Still, even tho not all guys w/ that kind of potential come through, you still go for raw talent & tremendous athleticism any time you have a chance: dynamic talent.

Thing is, I can't imagine why you don't realize that you can get that in R2, not just with a high R1 pick. What about Jordan Clarkson? Or, far more obvioussly, Dat...

what about Bol Bol? I'd say he fits the bill -- & so would you! How anyone could have passed on him to take Admiral I will never understand!

So... are you starting to understand my point? Still don't have to agree of course. But, agreement/disagreement should come in response to a particular situation: it would have been one hell of a lot better (more dynamic too) to come out of the the 2019 draft with, say, Brandon Clarke & Keldon Johnson plus Cody Martin & Bol Bol than to go all in on Rui Hachimura, don't you think? & if we'd bagged Cody Martin, we could have had his twin Caleb Martin undrafted!

Of course, maybe you think the Miami Heat doesn't know how to get "dynamic talent." Is that it?

[Kanyewest]

We've seen much less of that lately, R2 picks sold for $$$. Last instance I can recall was in 2017 -- maybe 2018....?

GMs seem to have figured out that a corollary of the fact that they keep picking guys who stink in the top 10-20 is that there are guys who are really good all up & down R2.

Edit: Think that last point is a myth?

Here are 6 lottery picks from 2018:

#2 Marvin Bagley
#6 Mo Bamba
#7 Wendell Carter
#9 Kevin Knox
#11 Jerome Robinson
#16 Zhaire Smith

Here are 10 guys taken in R2 that same year -- all of whom have worked out way better than any of the above:

Jevon Carter
Jalen Brunson
Devonte Graham
Mitchell Robinson
Jarred Vanderbilt
Bruce Brown
Hamidou Diallo
De’Anthony Melton
Keita Bates-Diop
Shake Milton

It's pretty much the same every year.

OTOH in the first round

#1 - DeAndre Ayton
#3- Luka Doncic
#4- Jaren Jackson Jr
#5- Trae Young
#10- Mikal Bridges
#11- SGA
#12- Miles Bridges (well before he got in trouble)
#14- Michael Porter Jr.
#19- Kevin Heurter
#24- Anfernee Simons
#27- Robert Williams

Yes, of course!

No one -- not I, not anyone else -- suggests that it's better to have, e.g. the #22 pick than to have the #12 pick. That's not the point.

&, for that matter, picks 1-3 are statistically above average over time.
Beyond #3, it makes little difference where you pick -- above all, because you can trade a single higher pick for multiple ones lower down.

OTOH, according to your list, in 2018 of the 25 R1 picks after Trae Young fully 18 of them are negligible. #s 6, 7, 8 , 9, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 28, 29 & 30 are negligible.

&, you know what, you're right: a dozen or more players taken in R2 or signed undrafted have been better than most of those 18 R1 picks you thought (rightly) weren't worth mentioning.

Oh but there's more

#7 - Wendell Carter
#8- Colin Sexton
#15- Troy Brown Jr (not a great 1st rounder but hey might be as good as some of the 2nd rounders you mentioned)
#17- Donte Divincenzo
#18- Lonnie Walker
#20 - Josh Okogie ("")
21- Grayson Allen (starter on a Bucks team)
#23- Aaron Holiday (hey wasn't that good but he did fetch a 2nd rounder from the Wizards)
25- Mo Wagner ("")
26- Landry Shamet - rotation player for a playoff team

But yeah
#2, #6, #9 , #13, #16 (health reasons), #22, #28- 30 were not really worth anything

So 21/30 players were at least as good as some of the 2nd rounders like Shake Milton which is like a 70% rate.

The hit rate for second rounder appears to be 33% (unless you want to add more to the list like Isuff Sanon).

I will say though that the 2018 draft just may be loaded. I don't think most drafts have a hit rate as high as 70% but it would be fun to make a model.

[Ruzious]

He’s clean cut. No dreads. Conservative haircut. Light-skinned. Not a quick twitch player or a freakish athlete. Projects to be a contributor who will hit open shots but not break other players down off his dribble.

Definitely a Tommy type player. Very vanilla. He’s already 22 or so years old. Low risk, moderate floor but not a high reward, either.

You and I can't help it - I gotta 2nd rounder for you - Jordan Hawkins from UConn. He's averaging 13.6 3's attempted per 40 minutes and makes almost 40%. The new microwave. Problem is - he makes only 40% of his 2's. And the Wiz traded their 2nd round pick, but I think they have Boston's - which will be late 50's - whoop de do! And with our luck, we'll be slated to pick 15th in the 1st round - what with our top 14 protection in the Westbrook/Wall trade.

Nice find, Ruzious!

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/.amp/prospect-profiles/nba-draft-scouting-report-uconns-jordan-hawkins

SEP 17, 2022 8:00 AM EDT
NBA Draft Scouting Report: UConn's Jordan Hawkins

Scouting Report: Jordan Hawkins
BY DRAFT DIGEST STAFF

<snip>


A versatile combo guard, Hawkins is a really good athlete. He’s got ideal NBA size and plays smart on both ends. It will be interesting to see if he ends up being more of a point guard or off-ball guard at the next level. He’s got upside at both positions, so it may depend on the personnel Hawkins is on the floor with

.

Ruzious, I hope you’re feeling well and your recovery is going great. It’s nice hearing from you!

About Jordan Hawkins: Dan Hurley is a tremendous coach. They’re super competitive. I recall hearing the kid’s name over and over.

Bonus: He’s a Dematha kid!

He’s projected as a round two pick but might be underrated.

Jordan Goodwin, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Haliburton, Wesley Matthews, and years back Jimmy Butler all fit a pattern of being drafted way too low.

Jordan Hawkins…

Doing a lot better - though I ain't what I used to be. Hope you're doing great!

Another kid who's rated 37th by nbadraft.net now but will be a first rounder is... the son of a former Bullet... infamous at that... and plays for him... Juwan Howard's kid, Jett Howard. He plays like a coach's son, very multi-faceted and a great 3 point shooter. I didn't want to like him, but I couldn't help being impressed.

Maxwell Lewis, a sophomore for Pepperdine, is another swingman shooter that really impressed me. He's rated a 1st rounder by some and a 2nd rounder by others. Looks a lot like Anthony Black - who I think has a decent chance to be the 3rd overall pick.

[doclinkin]

I'm looking at twin #2, Ausar Thompson. Smooth in all aspects, everywhere on defense. His floaters in traffic will translate, he drops in bank shots from the top corner of the glass. Intuitive instinctive feel for the game.

[Kanyewest]

Cam Whitmore, freshman at Villanova from Maryland looks really good- 6-7 freshman who may be ambidexterous- goes left a lot even though he is right handed. Good 3 point range, good defender- he missed a box out but other than that he should be moving up the draft board.
He has just come back from an injury and 2-0 since he's returned to lineup. He put up 21 points and 6 rebounds against Penn and he is still getting back into shape.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=FrankieVision