RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Wilt Chamberlain)

[lessthanjake]

What year do folks lean towards for Magic overtaking Kareem?

I think Kareem was better for Magic’s first couple years, then they were about equal in 1981-1982 and 1982-1983, and then Magic was definitely better.

[70sFan]

What year do folks lean towards for Magic overtaking Kareem?

I think somewhere between 1984 and 1985. I think Kareem was still the man in 1983 playoffs.

[Owly]

(3) I would take Kobe's supporting years of 97-00 and 11-13 over 90-92 Bird [sort of obviously] - I feel comfortable taking Kobe in a career sense.

This does raise the question of what to do with negative value years. Because a franchise would presumably rather not be paying what LA did for a player of final 3 years of Bryant's career. Not to say there's a simple, easy correct answer.

[One_and_Done]

Bird was regarded as the best player in the world in a league that included prime Jordan, Magic and Hakeem. Kobe was never the best player in the league. He is a long way from nomination for me. His extra longevity is irrelevant when you factor in the much higher peak of Bird. The lift Bird gives you, as demonstrated in 1980, is something well beyond what Kobe's impact can bring.

Kobe is an ancillary weapon you add to help get a great team over the top. Bird makes a team great, and lets you build a whole system around him.

[AEnigma]

On Magic: gestured at this previously, but his GOAT path was comfortably ahead of Jordan’s pace when he was forced into retirement. Magic was securely better at basically every age until their respective age 23 (per basketball-reference here because both have birthdays after the data cutoff) seasons. And while I am sure many would prefer 1987-90 Jordan to 1983-87 Magic (I am more mixed on the question), by that point Magic had four rings and three Finals MVPs to Jordan’s zero. Jordan makes up ground from 1991-93… but then he retires while Magic has a phenomenal age 31 season. So at the time of Jordan’s first retirement, even if the public prefers his high octane scoring and had already crowned him the greatest guard in league history, he has no real accomplishment advantage over Magic (nor would I say he was as tied to his team’s success). For me, it was not until 1997 where the totality of Jordan’s career probably had surpassed Magic’s career, and then 1998 (plus signs of a higher level aging curve in 2002/03) was what created a full tier of separation between the two.

For how most of us approach this exercise, minutes and longevity hold Magic back. Even then, I find myself considering Oscar — the greatest guard before these two arrived. Around ten thousand more minutes played. Second highest minute load throughout his career (by far), behind only notorious exception Wilt. In presence, he offered more to his teams than Magic ever did, or possibly even would have without the stigma of the time. And yet I prefer Magic without a second thought, because that is how much better he played the position. The Lakers for his entire career were a ~7.5 net rating team. 900 games at that level, and then regularly mediocre without him (despite decent enough replacements). Very similar circumstances to Tim Duncan, except with a potentially (likely) even better aging curve.

I do not know whom I want to pick first between Wilt and Magic, but it does leave a sour taste knowing that if I pick Wilt it will ultimately be because Magic’s league could not tolerate him on the court being all HIV infected and whatnot.

Note:

MJ's age 35 season he was contending for best in the world. While Magic in his age 36 season probably was an all-star level guy (all-nba at best). Just saying.

Okay see I hate playing with ages like that. Jordan turned 35 during the season; Magic’s birthday was in the late summer, so Magic only turned 37 after the season. The alternative portrayal would be that in Jordan’s basketball-reference age 36 season, Jordan was in the middle of a three-year retirement.

If your point is that it is unlikely Jordan would decline to Magic’s level within two years, I might be inclined to agree. On the other hand, I could just as easily say age 31 Magic finished as the MVP runner-up and took his team to the finals, while Jordan in his age 32 season “probably was an all-star level guy (all-nba at best).” Jordan may well have aged better than Magic, and I think he did more to suggest that than 30 games of Magic’s return did, but it is a pretty open question, and not one determined by Magic looking insufficiently impressive after nearly five years away from the NBA regular season.

[AEnigma]

What year do folks lean towards for Magic overtaking Kareem?

Cheap technicality, but 1984 — when Norm Nixon’s departure made it a sort of default. I think the transfer of status could have happened earlier (and would not be fully complete internally until 1987 anyway), but roster change is what made the Lakers more “Magic’s team”.

[OhayoKD]

Bird was regarded as the best player in the world in a league that included prime Jordan, Magic and Hakeem. Kobe was never the best player in the league. He is a long way from nomination for me. His extra longevity is irrelevant when you factor in the much higher peak of Bird. The lift Bird gives you, as demonstrated in 1980, is something well beyond what Kobe's impact can bring.

Kobe is an ancillary weapon you add to help get a great team over the top. Bird makes a team great, and lets you build a whole system around him.

As far as non-replicable "lift" goes, 2001 kobe lifting the lakers from a dissapointing regular season side to the 2017 warriors in the playoffs is probably more impressive.

[lessthanjake]

Bird was regarded as the best player in the world in a league that included prime Jordan, Magic and Hakeem. Kobe was never the best player in the league. He is a long way from nomination for me. His extra longevity is irrelevant when you factor in the much higher peak of Bird. The lift Bird gives you, as demonstrated in 1980, is something well beyond what Kobe's impact can bring.

Kobe is an ancillary weapon you add to help get a great team over the top. Bird makes a team great, and lets you build a whole system around him.

I’m not sure Bird was ever regarded as the world’s best player in a league that included prime Jordan. He was considered the best in Jordan’s first two years, but that’s basically just Jordan’s rookie season and an injury season (so not exactly Jordan’s “prime”). After that I think Jordan passed him in peoples’ estimation (indeed, he was always behind Jordan in MVP voting after that, for instance). That said, Bird did have a span in the mid-1980’s where was considered the best player in the league—which is a significant thing that very few possible nominees can say. And he also was consistently considered a top 3 player every year for his first 9 seasons—which is super impressive.

The weird thing with Kobe is that I don’t actually think it’s right that Kobe was never at least regarded as the best player in the world. In the mid-late 2000’s, the most commonly-held view at the time was that Kobe was the best player in the NBA. I didn’t agree with it then, and I don’t agree with it now, but I do remember that being the general consensus view.

Anyways, ultimately, it seems to me that Bird vs. Kobe is partially a peak vs. longevity question, but also a question of what one thinks of Kobe’s supporting cast in the two titles in the late 2000’s. If one doesn’t think too highly of them, then Kobe winning two straight titles with them is probably a more impressive achievement than any of Bird’s achievements (though I wouldn’t characterize the 1980-1981 Celtics as complete world-beaters either).

[homecourtloss]

What year do folks lean towards for Magic overtaking Kareem?

I think somewhere between 1984 and 1985. I think Kareem was still the man in 1983 playoffs.

There is some good discussion in Sansterre’s best teams list.

1985 Lakers (note the part about the Lakers’ jump in offense): https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2057499

1987 Lakers: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2052327

Shorter post on the 1984 Lakers: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2025225&start=20

[One_and_Done]

I have no idea what 'carrying' Kobe had to do in the 2001 playoffs. He was prime Shaq's sidekick, on a team filled with good role players, who clearly coasted during the regular season. He scored alot in the WCF because the Spurs backcourt was dreadful, and Shaq was attracting so much defensive attention.

Looking at their best years Bird from 80-88 had a 116 Ortg in the RS and had 570 TS.% In the playoffs that dropped to 114 and 555 TS%. Lower, but still higher than Kobe who had a 113 RS Ortg on 559. TS% from 01-10, and a 111 Ortg on 548 TS% in the playoffs. Yeh, Kobe scored more volume, because he's taking so many shots. His usage rates were 32.6 and 31.7 respectively, while Bird's usage was 26.7 and 25. That highlights another issue, the reduced complementary ability of Kobe. Kobe could score alot; Bird was getting his whole team to score.

[OhayoKD]

Bird was regarded as the best player in the world in a league that included prime Jordan, Magic and Hakeem. Kobe was never the best player in the league. He is a long way from nomination for me. His extra longevity is irrelevant when you factor in the much higher peak of Bird. The lift Bird gives you, as demonstrated in 1980, is something well beyond what Kobe's impact can bring.

Kobe is an ancillary weapon you add to help get a great team over the top. Bird makes a team great, and lets you build a whole system around him.

I’m not sure Bird was ever regarded as the world’s best player in a league that included prime Jordan. He was considered the best in Jordan’s first two years, but that’s basically just Jordan’s rookie season and an injury season (so not exactly Jordan’s “prime”). After that I think Jordan passed him in peoples’ estimation (indeed, he was always behind Jordan in MVP voting after that, for instance). That said, Bird did have a span in the mid-1980’s where was considered the best player in the league—which is a significant thing that very few possible nominees can say. And he also was consistently considered a top 3 player every year for his first 9 seasons—which is super impressive.

The weird thing with Kobe is that I don’t actually think it’s right that Kobe was never at least regarded as the best player in the world. In the mid-late 2000’s, the most commonly-held view at the time was that Kobe was the best player in the NBA. I didn’t agree with it then, and I don’t agree with it now, but I do remember that being the general consensus view.

Anyways, ultimately, it seems to me that Bird vs. Kobe is partially a peak vs. longevity question, but also a question of what one thinks of Kobe’s supporting cast in the two titles in the late 2000’s. If one doesn’t think too highly of them, then Kobe winning two straight titles with them is probably a more impressive achievement than any of Bird’s achievements (though I wouldn’t characterize the 1980-1981 Celtics as complete world-beaters either).

Kobe is easily still the consensus best player in the world in 07 and 08. At the time I'm not sure Lebron was rated higher. Not to say consensus should be utilized here(I certainly won't), but I'm not sure how Bird wins out there. Kobe is compared to lebron and jordan by many

[rk2023]

Similar to a past PC board project, how would you all rank the best 12 years played by Wilt and Shaq?

After eliminating all of those, what about repeating the exercise for the next 12?

They both stand out akin to one another in the sense of higher, but shorter-lived apex points with some questions (though perhaps overblown) as it pertains to playoff translation. Out of their very best, I’d say 00 > 67 > 64 > 01 - but there’s a lot of grey area for me after that which I’m currently not sure on and where clarification would impact my 7/8 vote split. Longevity, even unadjusted to era, would help Wilt imo. He served as a key-cog through anchoring an elite defense while play-finishing well off of Goodrich / West at age 35/36 on two all time great teams for example. I’d say that impresses me more than anything Shaq did post 2003, despite only being only 31? at the conclusion of that campaign.

[rk2023]

I have no idea what 'carrying' Kobe had to do in the 2001 playoffs. He was prime Shaq's sidekick, on a team filled with good role players, who clearly coasted during the regular season. He scored alot in the WCF because the Spurs backcourt was dreadful, and Shaq was attracting so much defensive attention.

Looking at their best years Bird from 80-88 had a 116 Ortg in the RS and had 570 TS.% In the playoffs that dropped to 114 and 555 TS%. Lower, but still higher than Kobe who had a 113 RS Ortg on 559. TS% from 01-10, and a 111 Ortg on 548 TS% in the playoffs. Yeh, Kobe scored more volume, because he's taking so many shots. His usage rates were 32.6 and 31.7 respectively, while Bird's usage was 26.7 and 25. That highlights another issue, the reduced complementary ability of Kobe. Kobe could score alot; Bird was getting his whole team to score.

While far from the end all & be all, 01-10 Kobe outclassed 80-88 Bird in box creation. The narrative that Kobe wasn’t getting teammates to score has been debunked to no end point. If I took him over Bird from a standpoint of “plug and play” team offense, I’d be lying. But acting like he’s a one dimensional shot chucker is much more inaccurate here.

[LukaTheGOAT]

On Magic - he got virtually eliminated prior to my vote last round so I didn't take much time on him, but I feel folks should examine how they feel about his longevity. Nobody has to, but he's a guy I'm going to give the edge to if it winds up feeling close due to the circumstances around how his career effectively ended after '91. Magic was a proven NBA great who wanted to play and was kept from the league due to a very unfortunate intersection of disease awareness/medical advancement/bigotry.

Hmm .... disease awareness and medical advancement sure. Bigotry ... I imagine there was some as well as genuine fear and uncertainty. Ultimately it was his decision to retire and his decision not to return (albeit in the face of some public opposition/criticism).

I'd also suggest Magic, with limited knowledge on the details, may not have been merely unlucky in terms of probability of contracting STIs.

Was he doing anything out of the ordinary from many NBA players in that time?

I mean sure he could have done more to help lower his odds but at the end of the day I don't know if his behavior was that atypical.

[One_and_Done]

If Kobe was ever the consensus best player he would have more than one MVP (which let's be real, was a lifetime achievement award, he arguably shouldn't have been top 3 on the ballot that year). To the casual fan or LA media he was the best, but to informed viewers he clearly was not. The POY project this board did has him as the best player for a given year exactly zero times; and I agree with that assessment. The baton was passed from Duncan to Lebron, with maybe KG or Dirk deserving consideration in the tiny interregnum of 08, depending on how you feel about 08 (and 07) Lebron.

[OhayoKD]

I have no idea what 'carrying' Kobe had to do in the 2001 playoffs. He was prime Shaq's sidekick, on a team filled with good role players, who clearly coasted during the regular season. He scored alot in the WCF because the Spurs backcourt was dreadful, and Shaq was attracting so much defensive attention.

Looking at their best years Bird from 80-88 had a 116 Ortg in the RS and had 570 TS.% In the playoffs that dropped to 114 and 555 TS%. Lower, but still higher than Kobe who had a 113 RS Ortg on 559. TS% from 01-10, and a 111 Ortg on 548 TS% in the playoffs. Yeh, Kobe scored more volume, because he's taking so many shots. His usage rates were 32.6 and 31.7 respectively, while Bird's usage was 26.7 and 25. That highlights another issue, the reduced complementary ability of Kobe. Kobe could score alot; Bird was getting his whole team to score.

Kobe went nova in three of four series. Since wowy suddenly matters now I guess I should mention the Celtics played at a 45-win pace without Bird from 87-88. And that was with their defense and bench play regressing after Walton left(and other injuries). Curious how the Celtics srs was never higher than 80 outside of 1986. Did Bird regress after his rookie-year? Or maybe Bird was a floor-raiser who couldn't fit with other stars?

[One_and_Done]

Wowy doesn't matter to me. As for SRS never getting higher that's called the law of diminishing returns.

[OhayoKD]

Wowy doesn't matter to me. As for SRS never getting higher that's called the law of diminishing returns.

So then what was this referencing?

Bird was regarded as the best player in the world in a league that included prime Jordan, Magic and Hakeem. Kobe was never the best player in the league. He is a long way from nomination for me. His extra longevity is irrelevant when you factor in the much higher peak of Bird. The lift Bird gives you, as demonstrated in 1980, is something well beyond what Kobe's impact can bring.

Kobe is an ancillary weapon you add to help get a great team over the top. Bird makes a team great, and lets you build a whole system around him.

"Diminishing returns".... so Bird can't scale well?

[iggymcfrack]

Should we be linking the previous threads in the first post so they don’t get lost? I mean it’s not a big deal now when they’re all so recent but they could be a pain in the ass to find later.

[One_and_Done]

Wowy doesn't matter to me. As for SRS never getting higher that's called the law of diminishing returns.

So then what was this referencing?

Bird was regarded as the best player in the world in a league that included prime Jordan, Magic and Hakeem. Kobe was never the best player in the league. He is a long way from nomination for me. His extra longevity is irrelevant when you factor in the much higher peak of Bird. The lift Bird gives you, as demonstrated in 1980, is something well beyond what Kobe's impact can bring.

Kobe is an ancillary weapon you add to help get a great team over the top. Bird makes a team great, and lets you build a whole system around him.

"Diminishing returns".... so Bird can't scale well?

The law of diminishing returns applies to everyone. Let's say Shaq, Lebron, Curry and KG are all worth 25 wins each. They should therefore win 82 games together, but obviously they won't. That's due to a number of factors. Sometimes you're all just not feeling it on the same night, sometimes the other team gets hot, some games fatigue from back to backs affects you, or maybe the players weren't an optimal fit like Lebron & Wade.

Once you get to a certain level the return you get is reduced, especially in the regular season where teams only push so hard and are figuring stuff out. There were also other really great teams in the league in Bird's prime, and obviously that will affect your SRS too.