Will a player ever average 40ppg in today's NBA

[parapooper]

2016 Curry scored 30pts on 22 scoring attempts - MJs 33 would have taken him easily into the 40s even assuming a large drop in efficiency
You could easily argue Curry should have taken 10 more shots/game given how far his efficiency was above average, especially if Klay hadn't been on the team

[Mr Peanut]

I think in today's NBA because of the depth of talent and degree of load management/preserving key players for the playoffs, that it's unlikely that anyone will be able to average the minutes needed to get to 40ppg. Sure it could still happen at some point in the future, but I can't see it anytime soon.

[Joshyjess]

Since I decided not to pursue my NBA career, unfortunately probably not.

[JN61]

Harden did a lot in this instagram era of no defense. So I wouldn't be surprised another one appears when current superstar cast is gone from NBA and nobody gives a toss about the product.

[JN61]

Since I decided not to pursue my NBA career, unfortunately probably not.

A true loss of what could have been.

[SpurNani]

If JDub ever were to get hurt and Chet misses his annual 25 games, I could see Shai in the high 30s.

[Rdude22]

A few of you guys mentioned it, field goal attempts is the biggest thing. No matter the era or the playstyle, most of the top/best scorers level out at 20 shots per game naturally (+/- 2) with a few outliers on occasion that get up to 26-28 a game… but ofc when you look at the roster or situation they were in (‘06 Kobe, ‘00-02 AI, even ‘19 Harden at just 24 fga) it’s almost always some ish like bad rosters or injuries that’s forcing them to shoot much more than normal

Remember, there’s “more spacing” in today’s league but there’s not necessarily more driving lanes (just consider why ppl are complaining about too many 3s and not too many layups… bc defenses arent staying at home unless the shooter is a Steph). So while more players can score in the low 20s with the inclusion of the spot up 3ball and swing swing action, it’s not a coincidence that only the most efficient (Shai, Giannis, Jokic) can top 30

[neno]

Wemby
might be unstoppable one day

[tsherkin]

He'd have to play big minutes like we haven't seen in basically a decade, and he'd have to shoot a LOT. Like, at a rate which is only tolerable on pretty bad teams. That kind of volume scoring isn't the province of quality roster construction, you know? And above and beyond that, just to do it without being an all-time terrible waste of skin relative to league average, he'd have to maintain an insane FTr and be bombing away in huge volume from 3.

We're talking about 2019 Harden, but playing 40+ mpg.

[picko]

It's not probable, but it is also not impossible.

You need a combination of gifted, prolific scorer (of which we have quite a few) combined with health and a willingness to play ~40 minutes a night (of which we have none). That last requirement is the sticking point - players just don't play enough.

You probably also need to be a bit selfish in your approach to the game. Jordan prioritised scoring, Kobe prioritised scoring, AI prioritised scoring. Whereas someone like Luka or Jokic play a variety of roles that will sometimes see them prioritise playmaking.

At some point I do believe we'll see someone with a Jordan or Kobe mentality, that will prioritise their scoring over everything else, and that, combined with higher league-wide efficiency, will propel them towards 40 PPG. It'll probably be in a bad team.

[tsherkin]

You need a combination of gifted, prolific scorer (of which we have quite a few) combined with health and a willingness to play ~40 minutes a night (of which we have none). That last requirement is the sticking point - players just don't play enough.

It's worth mentioning that we haven't seen 38+ mpg (over at least half a season) since 2016, and only twice since 2014. It was obviously pretty common until then, but it's been nearly a decade and we haven't seen even that, let alone 40+. It just isn't the contemporary approach to minutes played.

You probably also need to be a bit selfish in your approach to the game. Jordan prioritised scoring, Kobe prioritised scoring, AI prioritised scoring. Whereas someone like Luka or Jokic play a variety of roles that will sometimes see them prioritise playmaking.

Doncic has a half-dozen consecutive seasons of 20+ FGA/g and led the league in FGA/g in 3 straight seasons, topping out at 23.6 FGA/g, which is quite a lot. 99-00 forward, we've only had 13 player-seasons of 23.5+ FGA/g. That isn't very common to begin with, so the idea that Luka prioritizes shooting less than someone like Kobe is a little weird, because Bryant is actually only on that list twice, though he is the only guy besides AI who is on it more than once.

[picko]

You need a combination of gifted, prolific scorer (of which we have quite a few) combined with health and a willingness to play ~40 minutes a night (of which we have none). That last requirement is the sticking point - players just don't play enough.

It's worth mentioning that we haven't seen 38+ mpg (over at least half a season) since 2016, and only twice since 2014. It was obviously pretty common until then, but it's been nearly a decade and we haven't seen even that, let alone 40+. It just isn't the contemporary approach to minutes played.

You probably also need to be a bit selfish in your approach to the game. Jordan prioritised scoring, Kobe prioritised scoring, AI prioritised scoring. Whereas someone like Luka or Jokic play a variety of roles that will sometimes see them prioritise playmaking.

Doncic has a half-dozen consecutive seasons of 20+ FGA/g and led the league in FGA/g in 3 straight seasons, topping out at 23.6 FGA/g, which is quite a lot. 99-00 forward, we've only had 13 player-seasons of 23.5+ FGA/g. That isn't very common to begin with, so the idea that Luka prioritizes shooting less than someone like Kobe is a little weird, because Bryant is actually only on that list twice, though he is the only guy besides AI who is on it more than once.

It's not weird at all.

Kobe peaked at 35.0 FGA per 100 possessions, Jordan peaked at 34.8 FGA and Iverson peaked at 34.4 FGA. That's quite the gap compared to Doncic's peak of 30.7 FGA. To average 40 PPG you need to be incredibly selfish and while Doncic is more selfish than most players he is also a much more willing passer than the most selfish scorers we've seen: Kobe, Jordan and Iverson.

[dhsilv2]

Nope and we probably won't see anybody come close to what both Harden and Kobe did either. Between Harden and Kobe there was a 13yr gap and between Kobe and Jordan a 19yr gap. You need guys who are elite scorers but also workhorses with crazy motors. Contrary to what he's been the past couple of years but when Harden was in shape he had incredible stamina. I think elite guys like KD, Curry, and Shai can't be the workhorses that those guys were. Shaq and Embiid probably could've done it if they took better care of their bodies and in Shaq's case addressed his FT shooting. Iverson maybe if he were a better shooter because he clearly had the attempts(27.8 in 02-03!) I think Miami Lebron could've done it if he had the greenlight and didn't have to share with Wade, Bosh, and others.

I also think it may be damn near impossible in today's game because of the pace. Even with the popularity of the 3pt shot the recent league leaders in PPG have been hovering around only 33 recently and before that around 30ish outside of Harden.

Pace is not a limiting factor here, the biggest limiting factor is that usually it is simply not productive for a team to have that much scoring going through one guy for a whole season.

Well no. If Harden played 48 minutes like Wilt he'd have done it. Same with Kobe and MJ. The issue is that people just can't sustain it at a productive value add level. But a 3-4 point extra on a terrible team for a scoring savant isn't that insane.

[Cavsfansince84]

Harden could definitely have done it in 2020 imo. He was at like 38.4ppg 50 or so games into the season when Westbrook came back from injury and he went out of his way to start shooting less and WB started getting better on offense. Suddenly Harden's fga went way down but had he decided to chase 40ppg or WB hadn't been there I think he could have done it.

[316Hornets]

Averaging over 40 is doable for the genetic outliers like Wemby. If he is able to get the durability up to other superstars, will be difficult to stop if an offense is built perfectly around him.

[og15]

Nope and we probably won't see anybody come close to what both Harden and Kobe did either. Between Harden and Kobe there was a 13yr gap and between Kobe and Jordan a 19yr gap. You need guys who are elite scorers but also workhorses with crazy motors. Contrary to what he's been the past couple of years but when Harden was in shape he had incredible stamina. I think elite guys like KD, Curry, and Shai can't be the workhorses that those guys were. Shaq and Embiid probably could've done it if they took better care of their bodies and in Shaq's case addressed his FT shooting. Iverson maybe if he were a better shooter because he clearly had the attempts(27.8 in 02-03!) I think Miami Lebron could've done it if he had the greenlight and didn't have to share with Wade, Bosh, and others.

I also think it may be damn near impossible in today's game because of the pace. Even with the popularity of the 3pt shot the recent league leaders in PPG have been hovering around only 33 recently and before that around 30ish outside of Harden.

Pace is not a limiting factor here, the biggest limiting factor is that usually it is simply not productive for a team to have that much scoring going through one guy for a whole season.

Well no. If Harden played 48 minutes like Wilt he'd have done it. Same with Kobe and MJ. The issue is that people just can't sustain it at a productive value add level. But a 3-4 point extra on a terrible team for a scoring savant isn't that insane.

It isn't one or the other, there is more than one limiting factor, but I think in general, the biggest is that it's just not the most productive way of running a team, which you also say that people just can't sustain it at a productive value add level...and that's why it's just not the most productive way to have a team function.

[Uncle Mxy]

I predict a player will average 40ppg in today's NBA All-Star games.

[dhsilv2]

Pace is not a limiting factor here, the biggest limiting factor is that usually it is simply not productive for a team to have that much scoring going through one guy for a whole season.

Well no. If Harden played 48 minutes like Wilt he'd have done it. Same with Kobe and MJ. The issue is that people just can't sustain it at a productive value add level. But a 3-4 point extra on a terrible team for a scoring savant isn't that insane.

It isn't one or the other, there is more than one limiting factor, but I think in general, the biggest is that it's just not the most productive way of running a team, which you also say that people just can't sustain it at a productive value add level...and that's why it's just not the most productive way to have a team function.

I think we're just saying the same thing twice here. It's not a good way to run a team...but if you had some terrible team and you had a James Harden. They sure as heck could do it if the coach was like "screw next year, lets run this man into the ground". Thibbs has entered the building...

[og15]

Well no. If Harden played 48 minutes like Wilt he'd have done it. Same with Kobe and MJ. The issue is that people just can't sustain it at a productive value add level. But a 3-4 point extra on a terrible team for a scoring savant isn't that insane.

It isn't one or the other, there is more than one limiting factor, but I think in general, the biggest is that it's just not the most productive way of running a team, which you also say that people just can't sustain it at a productive value add level...and that's why it's just not the most productive way to have a team function.

I think we're just saying the same thing twice here. It's not a good way to run a team...but if you had some terrible team and you had a James Harden. They sure as heck could do it if the coach was like "screw next year, lets run this man into the ground". Thibbs has entered the building...

yea, certainly

[tsherkin]

It's not weird at all.

It's a little weird. Kobe played in a system which explicitly took him away from playmaking type opportunities compared to the usage of a guy like Doncic, who still managed to rock a whole crapload of shots. Bandying about single-season shooting peak doesn't really change that fact.

Yeah, those three guys shot more in their uber peak seasons, but they also didn't have the same size or playmaking ability to enable the option to play the same way... and Doncic's peak season is still as high as Kobe's second-highest shooting volume performance. One season isn't really the difference.

Iverson, sure. AI was a major chucker on bad offensive teams. That one makes sense. And yes, Jordan shot a lot as well. He definitely prioritized the scoring title to a specific degree... but again, he didn't shoot that much more than Doncic either, especially once you normalize for the offense and the differences in playmaking.