OT: Biedrins to get $63m/6years

fam3381 · Post #21 » by **fam3381** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:18 pm

Biedrins' opponent stats are pretty poor. Not a perfect tool for evaluating defense, but an opponent PER of 20.3 is not what you'd expect from a good defender. Per 48, opponents put up 21.8 ppg, 15.3 rpg and had an eFG% of .519. Fortunately he had an own PER of 21.4 per 48 minutes. I think it's largely a function of him not being strong enough as a post defender against bigger centers, as previously mentioned.

For comparison, Bogut put up 19.6/18.1 using the same data. Per 48, opponents averaged 18.3 ppg, 13.9 rpg and had an eFG% of .516 against him.

And for a further baseline, here are Dwight Howard's opponent stats per 48: 14.6 PER, 16.7 ppg, 12.5 rpg, .486 eFG%.

Balls2TheWalls · Post #22 » by **Balls2TheWalls** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:20 pm

A .516 eFG% is still not very good. However, he does show better stats in every category. If the contract incentives are not likely reached, then I am very happy with the Bogut deal.

Post #23 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:54 pm

Balls2TheWalls wrote:A .516 eFG% is still not very good. However, he does show better stats in every category. If the contract incentives are not likely reached, then I am very happy with the Bogut deal.

Who does?

Balls2TheWalls · Post #24 » by **Balls2TheWalls** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:56 pm

DrugBust wrote:
Balls2TheWalls wrote:A .516 eFG% is still not very good. However, he does show better stats in every category. If the contract incentives are not likely reached, then I am very happy with the Bogut deal.

Who does?

Bogut shows better statistics defensively per 48mins compared to Biedrins as referenced in fams post.

fam3381 · Post #25 » by **fam3381** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:56 pm

DrugBust wrote:Who does?

I think he was just referring to Bogut's opponent stats compared to Biedrins'.

Post #26 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:08 pm

fam3381 wrote:
DrugBust wrote:Who does?

I think he was just referring to Bogut's opponent stats compared to Biedrins'.

Ah, gotcha.

jeremyd236 · Post #27 » by **jeremyd236** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:23 pm

Biedrins is a better defender than Bogut. If you were to ask people around the league, it'd be no contest. Biedrins is known for defense and that's why he's on the court.

Don't try to compare per 48 minute stats. Those mean nothing. First of all, Biedrins plays in the West. He's defending better big men than Bogut does. Second of all, the Warriors as a team play very differently than the Bucks. They are run and gun, don't even pretend to play defense. As a team, they (somehow) give up more points per game than the Bucks.

I'm not saying Bogut's not a good defender, but he is not Biedrins. No stat you bring up can prove who is better, you've just got to watch the games.

Balls2TheWalls · Post #28 » by **Balls2TheWalls** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:28 pm

jeremyd236 wrote:Biedrins is a better defender than Bogut. If you were to ask people around the league, it'd be no contest. Biedrins is known for defense and that's why he's on the court.

Don't try to compare per 48 minute stats. Those mean nothing. First of all, Biedrins plays in the West. He's defending better big men than Bogut does. Second of all, the Warriors as a team play very differently than the Bucks. They are run and gun, don't even pretend to play defense. As a team, they (somehow) give up more points per game than the Bucks.

I'm not saying Bogut's not a good defender, but he is not Biedrins. No stat you bring up can prove who is better, you've just got to watch the games.

I think that the per 48 min stats actually mean quite a bit. They are just extrapolated statistics of what actually happened. Bogut actually DID have BETTER stats than Biedrins. Your opinion can go either way, but he gave up easier shots, gave up more rebounds and gave up more points to big men. Maybe if you come up with a system of analysis that means something and has some sort of quantitative evidence of your claims, I will listen to you.

Post #29 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:34 pm

Balls2TheWalls wrote:
jeremyd236 wrote:Biedrins is a better defender than Bogut. If you were to ask people around the league, it'd be no contest. Biedrins is known for defense and that's why he's on the court.

Don't try to compare per 48 minute stats. Those mean nothing. First of all, Biedrins plays in the West. He's defending better big men than Bogut does. Second of all, the Warriors as a team play very differently than the Bucks. They are run and gun, don't even pretend to play defense. As a team, they (somehow) give up more points per game than the Bucks.

I'm not saying Bogut's not a good defender, but he is not Biedrins. No stat you bring up can prove who is better, you've just got to watch the games.

I think that the per 48 min stats actually mean quite a bit. They are just extrapolated statistics of what actually happened. Bogut actually DID have BETTER stats than Biedrins. Your opinion can go either way, but he gave up easier shots, gave up more rebounds and gave up more points to big men. Maybe if you come up with a system of analysis that means something and has some sort of quantitative evidence of your claims, I will listen to you.

I know next to nothing about pace-adjustment, but wouldn't the fact that GS plays in a more up-tempo offense, meaning both sides getting more shots meaning more points and more rebound opportunities, have something to do with him giving up more on the defensive side?

Balls2TheWalls · Post #30 » by **Balls2TheWalls** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:41 pm

The statistic that would justify his higher scores and rebounds due to this pace difference would be the eFG% against and he gives up a worse percentage than Bogut. The statistics just do not support the assertion that Biedrins is a better defender.

thegreatest · Post #31 » by **thegreatest** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:52 pm

Now, only the Lakers AB is left to sign.

jeremyd236 · Post #32 » by **jeremyd236** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:59 pm

DrugBust wrote:
I know next to nothing about pace-adjustment, but wouldn't the fact that GS plays in a more up-tempo offense, meaning both sides getting more shots meaning more points and more rebound opportunities, have something to do with him giving up more on the defensive side?

That's exactly what I was trying to say. The Warriors play at the fastest pace possible (save the Suns). They get up more shots and so does the other team. Also, the big men in the West are far superior to those in the East. Biedrins defends better players.

Balls2TheWalls · Post #33 » by **Balls2TheWalls** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 4:02 pm

The problem with your theory, jeremy, is that Biedrins still gives up a higher effective field goal percentage, which is the great equalizer. I agree that pace would dictate the total RPG and PPG statistics, but giving up easier baskets is universal. If you use the eFG% as a ratio and compare it to either players statistics, you could project Bogut's defensive per 48 min statistics for PPG as a product of Biedrins' statistics. If you are going to say that the eFG% difference is a product of them playing worse team defense than the Bucks... that is where I am not going to follow.

Balls2TheWalls · Post #34 » by **Balls2TheWalls** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 4:03 pm

jeremyd236 wrote: Also, the big men in the West are far superior to those in the East. Biedrins defends better players.

Not buyin' it. The loss of Kevin Garnett to the East has even the big man conversation quite a bit.

yuedar · Post #35 » by **yuedar** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 5:59 pm

DrugBust wrote:Aside from the passing ability, can anyone tell me one single thing that Bogut does better than Biedrins?

I don't know that I would have given either the contract that they got, but if you want to compare defense, rebounding, scoring and athletic ability then Bogut gets the short stick. That said, I'd still have to take Bogut right now because he used to be able to shoot and he appeared to have an offensive arsenal at one point.

Bogut scores better then Beindris and I'd say he takes charges better. Otherwise I'd say rebounding is about equal, blocking maybe a slight edge to Beindris but its close, and general defense i'd give to beindris from the games ive seen him play he really seems to bust his ass on defense.

fam3381 · Post #36 » by **fam3381** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 6:39 pm

I usually just look at opponent PER since that stat controls for pace and combines all the other stats into one thing.

emunney · Post #37 » by **emunney** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 6:51 pm

Biedrins is clearly a better rebounder, but one big negative that I haven't seen in this thread is that, after four years in the league, he's still extremely foul prone. That could and generally does get better with age, but as I said he's been around for four years already, so it's hard to predict that he's going to suddenly figure that out.

What I like about Biedrins is his length and his activity level. He's got really quick feet, and while he's not great once his man catches in the post, he'll fight like hell to deny position and make the pass a tough one. Offensively he's in near-constant motion, and he gets a lot of points after losing his man on a cut to the rim, or while the ball's in the air for a put back, or from being in the right spot for a dump-off from a driving teammate. I'll take Bogut as an offensive option in the post over Biedrins any day of the week. Defending the post: also Bogut. Biedrins in general also leaves his feet too often on defense -- his age makes him predictably not-savvy despite his physical gifts and a great overall mentality.

I think it more or less comes down to: do you want a skinnier, quicker Dale Davis? Or do you want an all-around more athletic Divac minus the jumpshot and the 4-packs-a-day? I'll take the latter, but I don't think it's ridiculous to prefer the former.

REDDzone · Post #38 » by **REDDzone** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:06 pm

jeremyd236 wrote:

That's exactly what I was trying to say. The Warriors play at the fastest pace possible (save the Suns).

They play at a faster pace, therefore statistics that control for pace are being used as a measure to evaluate defensive contributions. And the Nuggets are the fastest team in the league, not the Suns. 8-)

They get up more shots and so does the other team. Also, the big men in the West are far superior to those in the East. Biedrins defends better players.

Debateable.

playmaker24 · Post #39 » by **playmaker24** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 10:18 pm

jeremyd236 wrote:
DrugBust wrote:
I know next to nothing about pace-adjustment, but wouldn't the fact that GS plays in a more up-tempo offense, meaning both sides getting more shots meaning more points and more rebound opportunities, have something to do with him giving up more on the defensive side?

That's exactly what I was trying to say. The Warriors play at the fastest pace possible (save the Suns). They get up more shots and so does the other team. Also, the big men in the West are far superior to those in the East. Biedrins defends better players.

Biedrins would be defending C spot and not the PF spot i believe. So if you compare the C's in the East v the West, the argument actually swings Bogut's way in identifying who has the tougher players to defend.

Unless you include some of the PF/C's into the equation, and that's when Biedrins would possibly have to defend some of the better players in the league like Duncan, Boozer/Mehmet, Stoudemire etc.

However when you look at pure C's, the East has Howard, (bogut), Ilgauskus, Dalembert etc, while the West has Shaq, Camby, Miller, Chandler....... and not much else.
Outside of the top 1 or 2 true C's in each conference there isn't much depth, and i would say Bogut is the no.2 C in the East behind Howard.

So unless Biedrins is responsible for guarding a hell of a lot of PF/C's, like Amare, Al Jeff, Duncan etc, i can't see how you'd argue he defends better players than bogut, when bogut would also defend pf/c's like bosh, KG, O'Neal, Wallace, Okafor etc etc.

GrandAdmiralDan · Post #40 » by **GrandAdmiralDan** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:51 pm

Biedrins actually will have a base salary of $54 mil over 6 years, but like Bogut, he received performance incentives that could be as much as just under $9 mil extra

Biedrins has a flat contract with a $9 mil salary each season BUT a significant advantage to that structure for the Warriors is lost due to the fact that the 6th year in that contract is a player option. Biedrins will either not choose to exercise that player option so he can become a free agent and get a new more lucrative contract OR he will exercise that player option and take that final year at $9 mil because he won't be worth $9 mil.

I am unaware of what the performance incentives are in Biedrins contract, but I will give Mullin the benefit of the doubt for now (perhaps an unwise thing to do considering his history of stupidity as a GM) and assume that they are as hard to attain as Bogut's are.