Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[nate33]

PER favors low-efficiency gunners. If you up your usage rate with a lower ORtg, you PER will likely increase, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're helping much. You can jack up shots at a roughly 32% FG% and have it still improve your PER. Wall is scoring a bit more this year which is helping his PER. Those points are coming at the expense of more turnovers and fewer assists, which aren't hurt his PER as much as the scoring helps, (but in reality they're hurting the team as much as the scoring helps).

But we're splitting hairs. The point is, Wall is about the same as he has been for the last 3 years.

[Illmatic12]

He's changed his shot distribution and improved his efficiency from different areas of the floor. It's hard to argue that he hasn't visibly improved his skill level as a basketball player.

Put it this way, this is a trade thread right? John Wall has improved his trade value in the past 3 years. He's improved his skill level in the areas that are valued around the league, and many of those skills being valued are in fact intangible.

[nate33]

He's changed his shot distribution and improved his efficiency from different areas of the floor. It's hard to argue that he hasn't visibly improved his skill level as a basketball player.

Put it this way, this is a trade thread right? John Wall has improved his trade value in the past 3 years. He's improved his skill level in the areas that are valued around the league, and many of those skills being valued are in fact intangible.

I really don't think Wall's trade value has gone up a bit since his 3rd year. I agree with you that he has probably improved in some small ways that aren't showing up in the box score, but those improvements were already "priced in" when people assessed his value in his 3rd year because they expected some incremental improvement.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nate and illmatic, discussions like this are great. I miss Dat2U and feel very conflicted posting at all.

FWIW, I think trading Beal for Oladipo would work well for both the Wizards and the Magic.

Oladipo is a better player than Beal.

I would trade Beal and a future pick for Victor Oladipo. He's flat out more athletic, more explosive, better defensively, and is a legitimate perennial all star on the right team. Beal is the far superior deep ball shooter.

Both are tremendous character young men.

If anything, the Wiz would get a pick out of the Magic for that trade. Oladipo is currently coming off the bench, whereas Beal is a starter.

And would the Wiz look to move Wall also? Because a backcourt of two players that can't space the floor is going nowhere fast in today's league.

Oladipo has had monster games, games in which he hit several threes.

It's ludicrous to suggest trading Wall. I think you're flat wrong about Wall and Oladipo. You haven't noticed that Wall hits threes now.

[Illmatic12]

He's changed his shot distribution and improved his efficiency from different areas of the floor. It's hard to argue that he hasn't visibly improved his skill level as a basketball player.

Put it this way, this is a trade thread right? John Wall has improved his trade value in the past 3 years. He's improved his skill level in the areas that are valued around the league, and many of those skills being valued are in fact intangible.

I really don't think Wall's trade value has gone up a bit since his 3rd year. I agree with you that he has probably improved in some small ways that aren't showing up in the box score, but those improvements were already "priced in" when people assessed his value in his 3rd year because they expected some incremental improvement.

His value has gone up imo, he went from being a slightly negative contract to a positive. He did so by proving to be durable, achieved multiple All-Star accolades, reached All-Defensive team status, had playoff success. And still has 3 years left on his deal.. meanwhile some of his peers signed max deals without having quite as successful a track record of improvement.

And keep in mind that Wall is essentially considered a bargain contract right now. If Damian Lillard is signed for $24mil/yr, Wall has significantly more trade value at $17m/yr.

This is what the Wiz will be dealing with in the Beal negotiations. Finding the correct price point for a player takes different variables into account, including other contracts around the league and what comparable players are projected to receive in the future, projected player improvements, etc.

[Illmatic12]

Nate and illmatic, discussions like this are great. I miss Dat2U and feel very conflicted posting at all.

FWIW, I think trading Beal for Oladipo would work well for both the Wizards and the Magic.

Oladipo is a better player than Beal.

I would trade Beal and a future pick for Victor Oladipo. He's flat out more athletic, more explosive, better defensively, and is a legitimate perennial all star on the right team. Beal is the far superior deep ball shooter.

Both are tremendous character young men.

If anything, the Wiz would get a pick out of the Magic for that trade. Oladipo is currently coming off the bench, whereas Beal is a starter.

And would the Wiz look to move Wall also? Because a backcourt of two players that can't space the floor is going nowhere fast in today's league.

Oladipo has had monster games, games in which he hit several threes.

It's ludicrous to suggest trading Wall. I think you're flat wrong about Wall and Oladipo. You haven't noticed that Wall hits threes now.

I mean, Beal has had monster games too- in the postseason at that. So that only means so much, right?

Oladipo has never had any 'monster' games for a winning team, his best individual production came as a proverbial looter in a riot. The moment the Magic started winning is when Skiles sent Oladipo to the bench , so he couldn't dominate the ball and negatively impact the other starters. It seems that he's best suited in a limited role as a sixth man, not as a focal point or starter.

[nate33]

He's changed his shot distribution and improved his efficiency from different areas of the floor. It's hard to argue that he hasn't visibly improved his skill level as a basketball player.

Put it this way, this is a trade thread right? John Wall has improved his trade value in the past 3 years. He's improved his skill level in the areas that are valued around the league, and many of those skills being valued are in fact intangible.

I really don't think Wall's trade value has gone up a bit since his 3rd year. I agree with you that he has probably improved in some small ways that aren't showing up in the box score, but those improvements were already "priced in" when people assessed his value in his 3rd year because they expected some incremental improvement.

His value has gone up imo, he went from being a slightly negative contract to a positive. He did so by proving to be durable, achieved multiple All-Star accolades, reached All-Defensive team status, had playoff success. And still has 3 years left on his deal.. meanwhile some of his peers signed max deals without having quite as successful a track record of improvement.

And keep in mind that Wall is essentially considered a bargain contract right now. If Damian Lillard is signed for $24mil/yr, Wall has significantly more trade value at $17m/yr.

This is what the Wiz will be dealing with in the Beal negotiations. Finding the correct price point for a player takes different variables into account, including other contracts around the league and what comparable players are projected to receive in the future, projected player improvements, etc.

I don't really see why Wall has been brought up in this conversation. Wall is merely one example of the overwhelming trend of wings peaking in their 3rd or 4th year. But going by statistics, there's no comparison whatsoever between Wall and Beal. Wall showed steady improvement through his first 3 years, and then reached a peak as an All Star. Obviously, he was a keeper when his rookie deal was up.

Beal has done nothing of the sort. He has shown no improvement whatsoever and has never been even an average starting SG. I'd entertain trade offers now. I might not pull the trigger on a deal until the Trade Deadline unless it's a really good one, but I'd definitely be listening to offers.

If he shows no significant improvement by the Trade Deadline, I'd trade him if the return was a guy like WCS or Crowder + Bradley (to name a few proposals that have been circulated).

[Illmatic12]

I really don't think Wall's trade value has gone up a bit since his 3rd year. I agree with you that he has probably improved in some small ways that aren't showing up in the box score, but those improvements were already "priced in" when people assessed his value in his 3rd year because they expected some incremental improvement.

His value has gone up imo, he went from being a slightly negative contract to a positive. He did so by proving to be durable, achieved multiple All-Star accolades, reached All-Defensive team status, had playoff success. And still has 3 years left on his deal.. meanwhile some of his peers signed max deals without having quite as successful a track record of improvement.

And keep in mind that Wall is essentially considered a bargain contract right now. If Damian Lillard is signed for $24mil/yr, Wall has significantly more trade value at $17m/yr.

This is what the Wiz will be dealing with in the Beal negotiations. Finding the correct price point for a player takes different variables into account, including other contracts around the league and what comparable players are projected to receive in the future, projected player improvements, etc.

I don't really see why Wall has been brought up in this conversation. Wall is merely one example of the overwhelming trend of wings peaking in their 3rd or 4th year. But going by statistics, there's no comparison whatsoever between Wall and Beal. Wall showed steady improvement through his first 3 years, and then reached a peak as an All Star. Obviously, he was a keeper when his rookie deal was up.

Beal has done nothing of the sort. He has shown no improvement whatsoever and has never been even an average starting SG. I'd entertain trade offers now. I might not pull the trigger on a deal until the Trade Deadline unless it's a really good one, but I'd definitely be listening to offers.

If he shows no significant improvement by the Trade Deadline, I'd trade him if the return was a guy like WCS or Crowder + Bradley (to name a few proposals that have been circulated).

You have a minority opinion and want to be heard, I get it. But there's no way any of that is happening or will even be considered. Teams like the Wizards don't trade away young players with potential for cents on the dollar (you don't think Beal has potential - again, clearly a minority opinion). That WCS trade was actually posted in the trade forum, overwhelmingly it was seen as a 'No' from Washington.

It won't hurt to additional perspectives, I'll post that Crowder trade in the trade forum and the responses can be discussed.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Reading through this, I agree with nate on several points. First, it's unwise to assume he'll improve, especially when realizing that his overall production has been flat throughout his career. Second, it's unwise to assume he'll improve enough to merit a max (or near-max) contract. Beal's been very average to this point in his career. He could improve significantly and still not be worthy of a maximum (or near-max) contract. Let someone else overpay.

As for Wall, a) I don't understand why he's in this conversation at all; and b) Wall's production this season is very much in line with what he did last year, which was good-but-not-great.

Here's Wall's progression season-by-season in my metric (PPA), which does MUCH better than PER in its handling of offensive efficiency. (PPA also includes defense, and a "degree of difficulty" accounting). In PPA, 100 = average and higher is better.

2010-11 -- 93
2011-12 -- 110
2012-13 -- 139
2013-14 -- 139
2014-15 -- 151
2015-16 -- 157

Here's Beal's PPA progression:

2012-13 -- 92
2013-14 -- 96
2014-15 -- 99
2015-16 -- 87

My statistical doppelganger machine indicates that the players most like Beal (through the end of last season (similar production at similar age) had their production peak at an average age of 24.9. The machine suggests a career peak for Beal of 128, which a) would be significant improvement, and b) ain't close to being max-worthy.

[Illmatic12]

Here's the Beal for WCS thread:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1418540

Beal for Bradley + Crowder:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1418999

Nate33, if you get in now, you can vote and try to even out the poll before it gets too lopsided.

[nuposse04]

That is good info Nate, ty for the analysis. Ironically enough however, Avery Bradley was a fairly mediocre player until this season as well

I am in favor for trading Beal for a good return, but I'd still afford him the chance to come back from injury in the next month and a half and see if he can make himself worth a damn. I doubt he well, but if there is a 9/39 chance that he shows some tangible improvement...sweet...

I'd still try to turn his trade value into a youngish Big however. And i'd if possible, into the WC in the off chance he does become worth a damn.

[thricethefun]

I've said this before but a Beal sign and trade this summer with the Knicks for Melo makes sense for both sides in my opinion. Knicks get another young player to build around with Porzingis and Wall finally gets an all star player to play with and take some pressure off him. With Beal's max he won't make much less than Melo so I'm not too worried about Melo's big contract. We could fill our sg hole with Kent Bazemore or someone of that calibre and look to sign a decent big or two and we would have a very solid team next year.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I've said this before but a Beal sign and trade this summer with the Knicks for Melo makes sense for both sides in my opinion. Knicks get another young player to build around with Porzingis and Wall finally gets an all star player to play with and take some pressure off him. With Beal's max he won't make much less than Melo so I'm not too worried about Melo's big contract. We could fill our sg hole with Kent Bazemore or someone of that calibre and look to sign a decent big or two and we would have a very solid team next year.

This makes no sense for the Wizards. Anthony is 31 years old and isn't very close to being as good as he used to be -- and he's been routinely overrated throughout his career. The only guy on that roster that interests me (other than Porzingis) is O'Quinn. I wouldn't trade Beal for O'Quinn, though.

[nate33]

That is good info Nate, ty for the analysis. Ironically enough however, Avery Bradley was a fairly mediocre player until this season as well

I am in favor for trading Beal for a good return, but I'd still afford him the chance to come back from injury in the next month and a half and see if he can make himself worth a damn. I doubt he well, but if there is a 9/39 chance that he shows some tangible improvement...sweet...

I'd still try to turn his trade value into a youngish Big however. And i'd if possible, into the WC in the off chance he does become worth a damn.

Yeah. My analysis wasn't meant to prove that late bloomers don't exist. Bradley was one. So was Jimmy Butler. So was Kyle Korver. (I guess Bradley didn't show up in my screen because he is 6-2.) My analysis merely shows that entering the league at an extremely young age doesn't make a late bloom likely. It appears that years of experience matter more than age.

Beal could bloom late just because there are some percentage of wings that bloom late and he might be in that group. But we shouldn't expect him to bloom late just because he entered the league at a young age.

[thricethefun]

I've said this before but a Beal sign and trade this summer with the Knicks for Melo makes sense for both sides in my opinion. Knicks get another young player to build around with Porzingis and Wall finally gets an all star player to play with and take some pressure off him. With Beal's max he won't make much less than Melo so I'm not too worried about Melo's big contract. We could fill our sg hole with Kent Bazemore or someone of that calibre and look to sign a decent big or two and we would have a very solid team next year.

This makes no sense for the Wizards. Anthony is 31 years old and isn't very close to being as good as he used to be -- and he's been routinely overrated throughout his career. The only guy on that roster that interests me (other than Porzingis) is O'Quinn. I wouldn't trade Beal for O'Quinn, though.

He may be overrated (depends how you rate him) but he's undoubtably much better than Beal.

[nuposse04]

I've said this before but a Beal sign and trade this summer with the Knicks for Melo makes sense for both sides in my opinion. Knicks get another young player to build around with Porzingis and Wall finally gets an all star player to play with and take some pressure off him. With Beal's max he won't make much less than Melo so I'm not too worried about Melo's big contract. We could fill our sg hole with Kent Bazemore or someone of that calibre and look to sign a decent big or two and we would have a very solid team next year.

This makes no sense for the Wizards. Anthony is 31 years old and isn't very close to being as good as he used to be -- and he's been routinely overrated throughout his career. The only guy on that roster that interests me (other than Porzingis) is O'Quinn. I wouldn't trade Beal for O'Quinn, though.

He may be overrated (depends how you rate him) but he's undoubtably much better than Beal.

That is just further condemnation on Beal's Potential >.> Current Melo is pretty meh.

[Ruzious]

I've said this before but a Beal sign and trade this summer with the Knicks for Melo makes sense for both sides in my opinion. Knicks get another young player to build around with Porzingis and Wall finally gets an all star player to play with and take some pressure off him. With Beal's max he won't make much less than Melo so I'm not too worried about Melo's big contract. We could fill our sg hole with Kent Bazemore or someone of that calibre and look to sign a decent big or two and we would have a very solid team next year.

This makes no sense for the Wizards. Anthony is 31 years old and isn't very close to being as good as he used to be -- and he's been routinely overrated throughout his career. The only guy on that roster that interests me (other than Porzingis) is O'Quinn. I wouldn't trade Beal for O'Quinn, though.

Ahem, averaging about 2 minutes a game less than O'Quinn for the Knicks is Kevin "the one that got away" Seraphin.

[Illmatic12]

Knicks fans were so cocky in that thread after they acquired Seraphin.. saying they would develop him into an elite post player

I'm not sure why they don't play O'Quinn though. Thought he would have been perfect for their system.

[nate33]

I've said this before but a Beal sign and trade this summer with the Knicks for Melo makes sense for both sides in my opinion. Knicks get another young player to build around with Porzingis and Wall finally gets an all star player to play with and take some pressure off him. With Beal's max he won't make much less than Melo so I'm not too worried about Melo's big contract. We could fill our sg hole with Kent Bazemore or someone of that calibre and look to sign a decent big or two and we would have a very solid team next year.

This makes no sense for the Wizards. Anthony is 31 years old and isn't very close to being as good as he used to be -- and he's been routinely overrated throughout his career. The only guy on that roster that interests me (other than Porzingis) is O'Quinn. I wouldn't trade Beal for O'Quinn, though.

Ahem, averaging about 2 minutes a game less than O'Quinn for the Knicks is Kevin "the one that got away" Seraphin.

My God! Seraphin has an ORtg of 87 this year!

[TheSecretWeapon]

Yeah, Seraphin is still Seraphin. His PPA so far: 28. Here's Seraphin's year-by-year PPA progression:

2010-11 -- 20
2011-12 -- 95
2012-13 -- 22
2013-14 -- 35
2014-15 -- 38
2015-16 -- 28