Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[zimpy27]

I know some small business owners who are cooked, I know others on the verge of going under. I have a friend on the verge of financial ruin, I even helped him out. Normal folk can't take this much longer. We just going to have to take a risk and hope for eventual herd immunity. Waiting a year+ for a vaccine is insanity, it can't happen or the country will collapse. Keep the old and the compromised quarantined and have them take precautions. At some point the show has to go on, or life as we know it is going to change forever, and I don't think that's a good idea either. I hope the warmer weather puts a dent in this thing.

That won't work too well, numbers will surge even in the young and healthy and mortality rate as those levels will rocket as hospitals get overwhelmed. You can't even just throw money at it because the major limiting factor are doctors and nurses, you can't just pay for them to appear, it takes years of training to become one.

It may be possible to lift lockdown for a month and then bring lockdown back for a month and so forth. If business know this ahead of time then perhaps they can plan for it.

Most businesses that will make it through struggling won’t make it past another lock down. Also employment and kick up in business won’t happen strong enough within 20-30 days to keep them viable.

I think those businesses that can not survive the monthly on-off scenario will probably not survive anyway. People aren't going to just spring back to normal even when lockdown is lifted. If it's that fragile then it's probably over for them.

What are the main pressures for these businesses? Rent/lease? Bank debt repayments?

Can't those be put on hold? Banks are the ones that hold all the cards here.

[13th Man]

it does not matter if they are not going to test people . I mean for some reason Canada has been trying to flatten the curve by not testing people. it worked out wonderfully as the number almost goes up exactly the same every day

Where did you get your info that Canada wasn't testing their people, or was this just your feeble attempt at humor? According here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Canada has tested 11,591/per 1M population. That's more than the USA (8,894) and more than South Korea (10,288) who's been highly lauded for their great response to testing.

Now go to bed Johnny and let the grownups speak.

Watch on YouTube

listen for yourself even Ford said himself, totally unacceptable. Now stop qupting fake data from fake resources because I can develop 20 websites like this in a day.

Good find, I was wondering why the numbers were so low and why Ford was so pissed that so few are being tested. I had assumed that he was blaming it on the workers slacking off or something lol. Agree that the criteria should be relaxed to accept more tests.

[speedfiend]

I hear you. I think that it is a must for the economy as well at some point but as long as people are educated and understand that the risk is still out there. How about making some of these N95 masks available to the public so that we could protect ourselves and others?

I'm afraid that as soon as things open up just a bit, a bunch of people will act like idiots and think that everything is back to normal now. I can just see it and it won't be pretty if **** breaks out.

I know some small business owners who are cooked, I know others on the verge of going under. I have a friend on the verge of financial ruin, I even helped him out. Normal folk can't take this much longer. We just going to have to take a risk and hope for eventual herd immunity. Waiting a year+ for a vaccine is insanity, it can't happen or the country will collapse. Keep the old and the compromised quarantined and have them take precautions. At some point the show has to go on, or life as we know it is going to change forever, and I don't think that's a good idea either. I hope the warmer weather puts a dent in this thing.

The only way that's gonna happen in the US/Europe (after this initial surge dies down) before a vaccine is if people are mandated to wear masks outside AND there are strict, comprehensive programs for quarantining new infections + close contacts.

Given how the authorities have reacted in these places thus far, I find both scenarios vanishingly unlikely.

Either that, or there's some treatments discovered (and widely distributed) that is guaranteed to eliminate all the severe side-effects of CV19 (Pneumonia, cytokine storm etc), in which case life could relatively rapidly move back to normal as most of the population can get infected/develop immunity freely without overloading the healthcare system (I. E the flu). But that's even more of a moonshot than the above.

Gilead's Remdesivir has shown more promise in limited clinical trials versus HCQ/CQ in the countries that has been testing it. though it's still very limited success. I've attached the published results below. Unfortunately, we all know if ever Remdesivir gets FDA approved, it's going to cost an arm and a leg to use the drug for treatment in the US.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-clinical-data-hint-at-efficacy-remdesivir-covid-19

I believe the US can start to very slowly open things back up when it can domestically produce enough disposable surgical masks for the population. In Taiwan, the general public is able to purchase 9 masks every 14 days at 17 cents USD per mask through the central government portal. If US can provide similar amount of masks to the general population through domestic production, and the people are willing to wear masks at all times outside of the house/car. then things can start to open back up.

[dhsilv2]

It's not essential? And one of them already tested positive. In what world is WWE essential.

I'm even a fan but there's no real way to argue its an essential business.

Just to play devils advocate as I don't think I believe this. Is having entertainment that keeps people happy and more at peace while staying at home not a pretty valuable service? My company makes inks and pigments that go into all kinds of manufactured goods. We're essential...does it really matter if your box of kraft mac and cheese be the normal color blue right now?

[bondom34]

It's not essential? And one of them already tested positive. In what world is WWE essential.

I'm even a fan but there's no real way to argue its an essential business.

Just to play devils advocate as I don't think I believe this. Is having entertainment that keeps people happy and more at peace while staying at home not a pretty valuable service? My company makes inks and pigments that go into all kinds of manufactured goods. We're essential...does it really matter if your box of kraft mac and cheese be the normal color blue right now?

No but your company is helping make packaging . WWE is in no way shape or form essential for any human function. It's a pandemic.

It requires a lot of people to put on a show even with no crowd. And puts at risk anyone who works at hotels or food service for them, places that are actually required.

Edit: Sorry if this sounded harsh but like....I'm a fan and its just not essential. MMA can't even happen and its just a strange/impossible claim to make that its necessary, ESPN has people taping in their house.

[Rock Hardy]

Speaking of Florida

Read on Twitter

I mean like....what

Desantis is a doofus. He also wants to reopen schools, because he believe kids aren't affected by the virus. This is what happens when you elect people who don't believe in science.

[Slava]

Speaking of Florida

Read on Twitter

I mean like....what

Desantis is a doofus. He also wants to reopen schools, because he believe kids aren't affected by the virus. This is what happens when you elect people who don't believe in science.

Considering that the other option was a meth head, Florida surprisingly came ahead when they elected De Santis.

[Bottomsouth]

That won't work too well, numbers will surge even in the young and healthy and mortality rate as those levels will rocket as hospitals get overwhelmed. You can't even just throw money at it because the major limiting factor are doctors and nurses, you can't just pay for them to appear, it takes years of training to become one.

It may be possible to lift lockdown for a month and then bring lockdown back for a month and so forth. If business know this ahead of time then perhaps they can plan for it.

Most businesses that will make it through struggling won’t make it past another lock down. Also employment and kick up in business won’t happen strong enough within 20-30 days to keep them viable.

I think those businesses that can not survive the monthly on-off scenario will probably not survive anyway. People aren't going to just spring back to normal even when lockdown is lifted. If it's that fragile then it's probably over for them.

What are the main pressures for these businesses? Rent/lease? Bank debt repayments?

Can't those be put on hold? Banks are the ones that hold all the cards here.

It all depends but definitely rent, insurances, equipment leases, vehicles, misc utility expenses and there own pay/expenses. Also, they could have been holding out expecting the PPP to hold them for two months and it won’t. That loan falls short once you start going through the application.

[hippesthippo]

They overreact with people potentially catching the virus at an outdoor sporting event or any activity outdoors. The issue is indoor places where fresh air doesn't come in and the bad air can't escape. I can understand being at an indoor basketball or an indoor hockey game when your indoors. But Football, baseball, golf and tennis are played outdoors where fresh air is always available and any bad air goes up into the sky away from people possibly being infected. The only indoor area at an outdoor sporting event is the restrooms but we can still social distance in the restrooms if need be.

But we do need to get the economy/country back up and try to get as many things back to normal. Things like dining in at a restaurant that should come back right now. But large gatherings shouldn't comeback yet. I think Gym's can re-open like LA fitness that I go to. It would be great to get LA fitness back and compete with people on the basketball court. I need to get back LA fitness, bodysurfing, dining in at restaurant, sporting events.

Woooo! Lets hit the assfault! You can even bring your pets!!!!11

[Bottomsouth]

It's not essential? And one of them already tested positive. In what world is WWE essential.

I'm even a fan but there's no real way to argue its an essential business.

Just to play devils advocate as I don't think I believe this. Is having entertainment that keeps people happy and more at peace while staying at home not a pretty valuable service? My company makes inks and pigments that go into all kinds of manufactured goods. We're essential...does it really matter if your box of kraft mac and cheese be the normal color blue right now?

No but your company is helping make packaging . WWE is in no way shape or form essential for any human function. It's a pandemic.

It requires a lot of people to put on a show even with no crowd. And puts at risk anyone who works at hotels or food service for them, places that are actually required.

Edit: Sorry if this sounded harsh but like....I'm a fan and its just not essential. MMA can't even happen and its just a strange/impossible claim to make that its necessary, ESPN has people taping in their house.

How does it put hotels and food service at risk? Is this opinion or actual data?

[hippesthippo]

u do understand that they refer to Italy's soccer game as the impetus that made their caseload explode, right? if u want to go hit the courts with 9 others then go do u, man. nothings stopping u.

Florida may end up leading the charge in re-opening things, so he may be in luck to have more to do.

Read on Twitter

It depends on what the goal is.

If the goal is to "flatten the curve" to prevent local hospital resources from being overwhelmed, then this can be solved simply by increasing hospital resources in areas with high rates of infection. Hence, those who need hospitalization and intensive care can receive it without impediment.

If the goal is to prevent the majority of people from getting infected in the first place, then yes, you'd have to maintain measures for social distancing until there is an effective treatment. This could be a year or more away.

Originally, the goal was just to flatten the curve in order to prevent hospitals from being overrun with patients.

Flattening the curve may be the goal on a national level, but my goal is making sure my loved ones and I stay alive. I think this is a common sentiment. Thankfully, they mostly coincide with each other.

[Bottomsouth]

Speaking of Florida

Read on Twitter

I mean like....what

Desantis is a doofus. He also wants to reopen schools, because he believe kids aren't affected by the virus. This is what happens when you elect people who don't believe in science.

Like the models?

[My Main Man]

Speaking of Florida

Read on Twitter

I mean like....what

Desantis is a doofus. He also wants to reopen schools, because he believe kids aren't affected by the virus. This is what happens when you elect people who don't believe in science.

Like the models?

What models are you referring to? Kids absolutely are affected by the virus, they just experience much milder symptoms generally. They are still carriers and, if school were to reopen now, would spread infection to faculty and family, essentially negating a large portion of the effects of social distancing we've already accomplished.

It seems like there are people who want to do a 2 steps forward, 1-2 steps back approach to social distancing/quarantine. We are doing a good job right now. It took too long to get here though and I don't want to go back and have to start over while another round of this peaks.

[karkinos]

Gilead's Remdesivir has shown more promise in limited clinical trials versus HCQ/CQ in the countries that has been testing it. though it's still very limited success. I've attached the published results below. Unfortunately, we all know if ever Remdesivir gets FDA approved, it's going to cost an arm and a leg to use the drug for treatment in the US.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-clinical-data-hint-at-efficacy-remdesivir-covid-19

other research includes
tocilizumab targeting IL-6
meplazumab targeting CD147

unless the convalescent plasma trials show strong activity, i wouldn't really bank on vaccines anytime soon.

if anyone is really interested, here is a summary about 1.5hrs long reviewing clinical trials that have been done for therapeutics, potential therapeutics, as well as the change in management for covid patients (shifting towards non-invasive ventilation strategies)

The Experience From Front-Line Leaders in China: Session 2: Strategies for Patient Management
https://www.chestnet.org/Guidelines-and-Resources/COVID-19/Advice-From-the-Front-Lines#ExperienceFromChinaWebinarPart1

[dhsilv2]

Desantis is a doofus. He also wants to reopen schools, because he believe kids aren't affected by the virus. This is what happens when you elect people who don't believe in science.

Like the models?

What models are you referring to? Kids absolutely are affected by the virus, they just experience much milder symptoms generally. They are still carriers and, if school were to reopen now, would spread infection to faculty and family, essentially negating a large portion of the effects of social distancing we've already accomplished.

It seems like there are people who want to do a 2 steps forward, 1-2 steps back approach to social distancing/quarantine. We are doing a good job right now. It took too long to get here though and I don't want to go back and have to start over while another round of this peaks.

This is the old election polling issue we can't seem to EVER get past. So and so leads so and so by 3 points in the poll. At the bottom of the screen (hopefully it's there) it states there is a margin of error of +/-5. So news person says that someone is leading in the poll (technically true) and the idiot hearing this thinks that the poll says so and so has a majority of votes according to the "experts". Well no, the experts say it is way too close to conclude anything. Similarly, with models we went in knowing from the start that models were based on VERY limited and poor data and had huge margins for error. And people are now drawing the conclusion that models were wrong because the data was both poorly presented to them and worse, people just don't understand how to read data.

The end result is we now have people claiming the experts were wrong instead of understanding that most of the models were designed to help us prepare for the worst and give hospitals and government officials ideas on how to act. They were never intended to predict the actual number of deaths from them.

[Slava]

Gilead's Remdesivir has shown more promise in limited clinical trials versus HCQ/CQ in the countries that has been testing it. though it's still very limited success. I've attached the published results below. Unfortunately, we all know if ever Remdesivir gets FDA approved, it's going to cost an arm and a leg to use the drug for treatment in the US.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-clinical-data-hint-at-efficacy-remdesivir-covid-19

other research includes
tocilizumab targeting IL-6
meplazumab targeting CD147

unless the convalescent plasma trials show strong activity, i wouldn't really bank on vaccines anytime soon.

if anyone is really interested, here is a summary about 1.5hrs long reviewing clinical trials that have been done for therapeutics, potential therapeutics, as well as the change in management for covid patients (shifting towards non-invasive ventilation strategies)

The Experience From Front-Line Leaders in China: Session 2: Strategies for Patient Management
https://www.chestnet.org/Guidelines-and-Resources/COVID-19/Advice-From-the-Front-Lines#ExperienceFromChinaWebinarPart1

There's still no vaccine for SARS and this was an epidemic in 2003.

[dhsilv2]

It's not essential? And one of them already tested positive. In what world is WWE essential.

I'm even a fan but there's no real way to argue its an essential business.

Just to play devils advocate as I don't think I believe this. Is having entertainment that keeps people happy and more at peace while staying at home not a pretty valuable service? My company makes inks and pigments that go into all kinds of manufactured goods. We're essential...does it really matter if your box of kraft mac and cheese be the normal color blue right now?

No but your company is helping make packaging . WWE is in no way shape or form essential for any human function. It's a pandemic.

It requires a lot of people to put on a show even with no crowd. And puts at risk anyone who works at hotels or food service for them, places that are actually required.

Edit: Sorry if this sounded harsh but like....I'm a fan and its just not essential. MMA can't even happen and its just a strange/impossible claim to make that its necessary, ESPN has people taping in their house.

Well, and again I'm somewhat playing devils advocate but mental health is important and we do have to address opening things back up and likely we need to do it slowly. Having 50 people fake fight to entertain people in a closed of area doesn't seem like the most dangerous way to do it. I certainly hope we don't go from 0 to 100 when we start to reopen things and in that transition...why not wrestling?

Mind you my first counter is florida is nowhere near reopening, they're still not at their peak.

[karkinos]

Gilead's Remdesivir has shown more promise in limited clinical trials versus HCQ/CQ in the countries that has been testing it. though it's still very limited success. I've attached the published results below. Unfortunately, we all know if ever Remdesivir gets FDA approved, it's going to cost an arm and a leg to use the drug for treatment in the US.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-clinical-data-hint-at-efficacy-remdesivir-covid-19

other research includes
tocilizumab targeting IL-6
meplazumab targeting CD147

unless the convalescent plasma trials show strong activity, i wouldn't really bank on vaccines anytime soon.

if anyone is really interested, here is a summary about 1.5hrs long reviewing clinical trials that have been done for therapeutics, potential therapeutics, as well as the change in management for covid patients (shifting towards non-invasive ventilation strategies)

The Experience From Front-Line Leaders in China: Session 2: Strategies for Patient Management
https://www.chestnet.org/Guidelines-and-Resources/COVID-19/Advice-From-the-Front-Lines#ExperienceFromChinaWebinarPart1

There's still no vaccine for SARS and this was an epidemic in 2003.

also we've been making influenza vaccine for decades and we're still struggling with it.

[Slava]

other research includes
tocilizumab targeting IL-6
meplazumab targeting CD147

unless the convalescent plasma trials show strong activity, i wouldn't really bank on vaccines anytime soon.

if anyone is really interested, here is a summary about 1.5hrs long reviewing clinical trials that have been done for therapeutics, potential therapeutics, as well as the change in management for covid patients (shifting towards non-invasive ventilation strategies)

The Experience From Front-Line Leaders in China: Session 2: Strategies for Patient Management
https://www.chestnet.org/Guidelines-and-Resources/COVID-19/Advice-From-the-Front-Lines#ExperienceFromChinaWebinarPart1

There's still no vaccine for SARS and this was an epidemic in 2003.

also we've been making influenza vaccine for decades and we're still struggling with it.

Influenza is a mixture of strains so the flu strains themselves evolve as we go, which is why people are asked to get the flu vaccine every year and once enough people have it, it reduces risk of transmission.

SARS viruses are rare and even as researchers dive head first into trying to develop a vaccine for a single strain, eventually as the spread starts to peter out and normality starts ensuing, they drop the trials and go back to working on things that make profits.

[karkinos]

There's still no vaccine for SARS and this was an epidemic in 2003.

also we've been making influenza vaccine for decades and we're still struggling with it.

Influenza is a mixture of strains so the flu strains themselves evolve as we go, which is why people are asked to get the flu vaccine every year and once enough people have it, it reduces risk of transmission.

SARS viruses are rare and even as researchers dive head first into trying to develop a vaccine for a single strain, eventually as the spread starts to peter out and normality starts ensuing, they drop the trials and go back to working on things that make profits.

i understand the biology of viruses. it was more of a general statement to emphasize that vaccines are difficult to make, irrespective of how long you are able to study it and how often it mutates and so forth.