Trade/Free Agency Thread, whose NINE is it anyways?? 2023-24

[celtxman]

For those of us who are concerned about our seemingly ill fitted roster, at Summer League yesterday Brad Stevens said we need to "finish out our roster right."

[steefP2]

Lol What?


Not including capholds (Pritchard 6 million QO - Kornet 2.1 million) and possible draft pick capholds
1.Tatum - 34.8
2. Kristaps - 29.2
3. Brogdon - 22.2
4. White - 19.5
5. Timelord - 12.4
6. Horford - 9.5
Total - 127.6


7. Add to that Browns extension of ~50 million
177.6 MIllion

8. Add Walsh - 1.8
9. Hauser - 2

181.4 Million


Lux tax this year is 164 and 1st Apron is 172 Million. If the 1st apron increases by 5% next year we are still OVER IT.


If the Lux Tax line increases by 10% we are over it. MEaning we would only have the TPmle and vet mins to finish off roster then we have Tatums supermax kick in the following season.


So wow, we have a little wiggle room under the 2nd apron...big deal...we are over the lux tax and possibly the 1st apron meaning our options are very limited

Fwiw Lux tax next season will probably be around 175 and 2nd apron around 200 mil

Maybe, assuming a 10% plus jump.

Cannot make decisions today based on that.

And over the 1st apron means much tighter restrictions on flexibility.
.

If Jaylen signs for 40 million. Cool. All for that. 50. Nope.

No this isnt with 10% jumps. This is with a 6-8% ish jump which is entirely realistic and then once the new tv deal sets in after 24-25 its guaranteed 10% jumps every year. This isn't speculation really. Might be off by a few mill but its gonna be around these figures.

[ajones9219]

NOPE.

Get real man, that is an incredibly homer take

Go with that thought to the GB and see just how many not Boston fans agree with that. jesus. lol.

Every publication has jaylen between 13-20. This is a national consensus in the NBA media.

Lol, nope.

I mean if someone looks exclusivly at RAW stats, sure!

He was top 10 in ppg.

If you look at atvanced stats you will not find him in the top 60.

I find him between the 2. Around 30th.

So ignore what ESPN, The Ringer, Sportnaut, CBS and all the other National media says, Larry Russell doesn't agree so that's what we have to go with

[hugepatsfan]

How would you guys feel about a deal of Brogdon/Pritchard/picks that returned Bojan Bogdonovich from DET and Delon Wright from WAS?

White / Wright
Brown
Tatum / Bogi
Porzingis
RWilliams / Horford

That's a 2 for 2 swap so we'd still have 14 players (with playoff rotation listed above). By my calculations, we can do that and stay under the 2nd apron even while filling the 15th roster spot. If unlikely incentives appear destined to hit though, we'd probably need to salary dump that 15th player mid year to stay under.

Those are really the only Brogdon trade scenarios I like. Move him (and Pritchard) in a 2 for 2 swap that replaces him as a bench scorer with an off ball shooting wing type and then a 2-way backup PG in the mold of White for the minutes he sits.

[steefP2]

How would you guys feel about a deal of Brogdon/Pritchard/picks that returned Bojan Bogdonovich from DET and Delon Wright from WAS?

White / Wright
Brown
Tatum / Bogi
Porzingis
RWilliams / Horford

That's a 2 for 2 swap so we'd still have 14 players (with playoff rotation listed above). By my calculations, we can do that and stay under the 2nd apron even while filling the 15th roster spot. If unlikely incentives appear destined to hit though, we'd probably need to salary dump that 15th player mid year to stay under.

Those are really the only Brogdon trade scenarios I like. Move him (and Pritchard) in a 2 for 2 swap that replaces him as a bench scorer with an off ball shooting wing type and then a 2-way backup PG in the mold of White for the minutes he sits.

Yeah all the good brogdon trades boil down to getting one of Delon wright or Monte morris + 1 of bogdanovic/Batum/Royce O’Neal.

It’s almost impossible to find an upgrade on him because you can’t pay whoever it is in the future and if you trade brogdon you need a at least a good backup pg back in return so they all become brogdon for backup point and backup 3/4. Which I’m fine with; unless it’s tj McConnell lo

[zoyathedestroya]

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[zoyathedestroya]

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[Hal14]

JB has 1 year left on his contract, was 66th in the league in BPM and gets injured pretty often..this is good value imo. And I outlined why in my post..

His market value is higher than this. It's not about BPM. It's about how he's perceived.

Why would you trade him for Siakam who cannot be extended nor signed for more than competition and is free to walk at end of season? The only move is to sign him - even if you agree with Hal’s low opinion of JB. JB’s on court value is unlikely to be worse and very likely even goes up with Porzingas out there. Signed to 5 years…..his trade value will be through the roof next year if at age 27 he maintains his current level of play.

Who said anything about trading for Siakam? The trade idea I posted was for OG.

If we did trade for Siakam though, he can be extended - just like how we extended Porzingis.

And JB averaged 27 PPG last season and made 2nd team all-NBA. This season with Porzingis on the team, his scoring average will likely drop quite a bit and he likely won't make all-NBA. So his trade value will drop - not to mention it'll be much harder to trade him next year since every other team will know he is not worth the $295 mil contract the c's are about to give him.

[Hal14]

How would you guys feel about a deal of Brogdon/Pritchard/picks that returned Bojan Bogdonovich from DET and Delon Wright from WAS?

White / Wright
Brown
Tatum / Bogi
Porzingis
RWilliams / Horford

That's a 2 for 2 swap so we'd still have 14 players (with playoff rotation listed above). By my calculations, we can do that and stay under the 2nd apron even while filling the 15th roster spot. If unlikely incentives appear destined to hit though, we'd probably need to salary dump that 15th player mid year to stay under.

Those are really the only Brogdon trade scenarios I like. Move him (and Pritchard) in a 2 for 2 swap that replaces him as a bench scorer with an off ball shooting wing type and then a 2-way backup PG in the mold of White for the minutes he sits.

Sounds good to me

[Hal14]

Yup. Been trying to explain this math but it's just "jAyLeN tOo eXpEnsIve" in return

You don't just pay the maximum possible because you can. You don't walk into a dealership and insist that they accept $50,000 for the Fiat. You pay thousands below the MSRP or ideally you walk away and buy a more reputable brand.

You do for a star player. He's worth the 295.

No he's not.

Last seasons JB was...
46th in the league in EPM
66th in the league in BPM
76th in RAPTOR
66th in PIE
106th in TS%

During the 21-22 season, he was 29th in the league in RAPTOR. During the 20-21 season, he was 51st in the league in RAPTOR.

[robdog_5]

Because Brad knows ball. Jaylen is a top 20 player in the league, why would you not want him for a long time? The jaylen hate on this board gets incredibly silly at times

[/quote

NOPE.

Get real man, that is an incredibly homer take

Go with that thought to the GB and see just how many not Boston fans agree with that. jesus. lol.

Every publication has jaylen between 13-20. This is a national consensus in the NBA media.

CBS: 13
Sportnaut: 14
ESPN:19
The ringer: 22

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

Only updated one since post season. 23rd so not 13-20th.

My 2 cents which isn't worth much is Brown isn't a max player however, your generally worth what someone is willing to give you. Given that there isn't a lot of players in the NBA and frankly hardly any available to the Celtics better than Jaylen you may have to overpay. My biggest issues with Jaylen is he lacks awareness outside of getting his. He doesn't play good team D, he doesn't pass well, etc and to me there is better roster fits with Tatum than Jaylen. Not that he isn't good but the Celtics maybe better optimized with a different type of 2nd star. For example Mikail Bridges to me would be a much better fit next to Tatum. However I'd venture to guess NJ wouldn't even want to do a 1 for 1.

[steefP2]

NOPE.

Get real man, that is an incredibly homer take

Go with that thought to the GB and see just how many not Boston fans agree with that. jesus. lol.

Every publication has jaylen between 13-20. This is a national consensus in the NBA media.

CBS: 13
Sportnaut: 14
ESPN:19
The ringer: 22

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

Only updated one since post season. 23rd so not 13-20th.

My 2 cents which isn't worth much is Brown isn't a max player however, your generally worth what someone is willing to give you. Given that there isn't a lot of players in the NBA and frankly hardly any available to the Celtics better than Jaylen you may have to overpay. My biggest issues with Jaylen is he lacks awareness outside of getting his. He doesn't play good team D, he doesn't pass well, etc and to me there is better roster fits with Tatum than Jaylen. Not that he isn't good but the Celtics maybe better optimized with a different type of 2nd star. For example Mikail Bridges to me would be a much better fit next to Tatum. However I'd venture to guess NJ wouldn't even want to do a 1 for 1.

Just curious why you think mikal is a better fit ? Is it just the defense ? Cause he’s equally iffy as a passer, a worse driver/penetrator and roughly equivalent shooter. Mikal might be better going forward and ofc the contract is fantastic but mikal had one 25 game stretch where he equalled brown’s production while his team went 11-14.

But yeah the defense is obviously fantastic; just curious why you think another wing who can’t pass or handle that well is a better fit

[Larry_Russell]

Fwiw Lux tax next season will probably be around 175 and 2nd apron around 200 mil

Maybe, assuming a 10% plus jump.

Cannot make decisions today based on that.

And over the 1st apron means much tighter restrictions on flexibility.
.

If Jaylen signs for 40 million. Cool. All for that. 50. Nope.

No this isnt with 10% jumps. This is with a 6-8% ish jump which is entirely realistic and then once the new tv deal sets in after 24-25 its guaranteed 10% jumps every year. This isn't speculation really. Might be off by a few mill but its gonna be around these figures.

2nd apron is currently 182 million
To get to 200 million a jump of 18 million, or 10% of 180 million.

The new tv deal is supposed to be levelled out over multiple seasons as opposed to a big jump in year one. They dont want spikes in player contracts in 1 year that prevents future contracts from the same jump in available cash

[Larry_Russell]

Every publication has jaylen between 13-20. This is a national consensus in the NBA media.

Lol, nope.

I mean if someone looks exclusivly at RAW stats, sure!

He was top 10 in ppg.

If you look at atvanced stats you will not find him in the top 60.

I find him between the 2. Around 30th.

So ignore what ESPN, The Ringer, Sportnaut, CBS and all the other National media says, Larry Russell doesn't agree so that's what we have to go with

Prove these guys have him top 20.

[GoCeltics123]

Read on Twitter

Brad also mentioned (not in this story) that he wants some wing depth and depth at the 3/4 spot

[hugepatsfan]

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So TOR would be left with...

Dame / Schroeder
Dick
OG / McDaniels
Siakam
Poeltl / Achiuwa

That starting lineup looks TREMENDOUS. The bench might be a little lacking in the front court depending on how McDaniels and Achiuwa develop as young players.

But if they make this trade, and then next offseason can build the bench with a full FA slate of exception signings, watch out for them. I think year 1 they'd probably fall short due to building chemistry and a weaker bench since there's only scraps left in FA. But year 2, watch out for that team.

[steefP2]

Maybe, assuming a 10% plus jump.

Cannot make decisions today based on that.

And over the 1st apron means much tighter restrictions on flexibility.
.

If Jaylen signs for 40 million. Cool. All for that. 50. Nope.

No this isnt with 10% jumps. This is with a 6-8% ish jump which is entirely realistic and then once the new tv deal sets in after 24-25 its guaranteed 10% jumps every year. This isn't speculation really. Might be off by a few mill but its gonna be around these figures.

2nd apron is currently 182 million
To get to 200 million a jump of 18 million, or 10% of 180 million.

The new tv deal is supposed to be levelled out over multiple seasons as opposed to a big jump in year one. They dont want spikes in player contracts in 1 year that prevents future contracts from the same jump in available cash

Cool; except that’s not how the 2nd apron gets calculated. Only the cap goes up by x percent, the apron levels and lux tax levels above that are y % of the cap added to the cap number. It’s lux tax + 17.5 billion (not sure if that number goes up) and lux tax freehold is 21% of the cap added to the cap number.

As to your second point yes that’s exactly what I mean; they don’t want a big spike which is why there’s cap smoothing which will result in max raises for 4-5 season of 10% per season. Anything else ?

[hugepatsfan]

Spotrac had next year's 2nd apron projected at $200.75M last week, now it's down to $190M. Anyone know what the change is for?

At $190M, we're easily over. At $200.75M, we'd likely be under unless we took on some salary for next year (which seems unlikely barring a Dame trade).

[BK_2020]

NOPE.

Get real man, that is an incredibly homer take

Go with that thought to the GB and see just how many not Boston fans agree with that. jesus. lol.

Every publication has jaylen between 13-20. This is a national consensus in the NBA media.

CBS: 13
Sportnaut: 14
ESPN:19
The ringer: 22

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

Only updated one since post season. 23rd so not 13-20th.

My 2 cents which isn't worth much is Brown isn't a max player however, your generally worth what someone is willing to give you. Given that there isn't a lot of players in the NBA and frankly hardly any available to the Celtics better than Jaylen you may have to overpay. My biggest issues with Jaylen is he lacks awareness outside of getting his. He doesn't play good team D, he doesn't pass well, etc and to me there is better roster fits with Tatum than Jaylen. Not that he isn't good but the Celtics maybe better optimized with a different type of 2nd star. For example Mikail Bridges to me would be a much better fit next to Tatum. However I'd venture to guess NJ wouldn't even want to do a 1 for 1.

not sure how much weight you put into Bill Simmons' rankings. These top-whatever lists are routinely produced without any objective criteria based purely on subjective feelings and don't really serve a purpose other than cater to readers' confirmation bias and get clicks.

[31to6]

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Jaylen next?

I want to ask fellow board mates to take a look at how the name on this jersey is spelled. Once you’ve got it, you’ve got it. Thanks!

Hopefully Pozingas, Porzingus and Porzingas all vanish at once!!

And they can take “Brogdan” with them!