Retro POY '95-96 (Voting Complete)

[Manuel Calavera]

A stat I really dont get is winshares. I know what it represents (estimated wins by a player), but I don't know why it's used when PER seems to be what it is only better.

Also, here's my list:

1. MJ
2. Malone
3. Drob
4. Payton
5. Pippen

[lorak]

Great post.

Hakeem and KG are the only two big men in NBA history who have ever been "swarmed". All other big men face single coverage.

[Doctor MJ]

A stat I really dont get is winshares. I know what it represents (estimated wins by a player), but I don't know why it's used when PER seems to be what it is only better.

Well here's one thing I'll say: PER measure's per possession impact normalized to 15 as the league average, WS measures total season impact unnormalized. So if a guy gets injured and misses a ton of games, I want there to be a stat that tries to measure total impact so that I know that the injured guy isn't making the league leaders unless he's off-the-charts-good.

There's actually a few different decision points here, and not only do PER & WS measure different things, but there are variants I'd like to see not covered by either.

Ah and then there's the more advanced stuff like adjusting based on actual assisted on % rather than league average (see APER on hoopdata.com and watch Nash's "production" jump from 16th in PER to 6th just by factoring that in more precisely), that are only not in there because the data wasn't recorded historically.

So yeah, it's a messy thing, and there's actually both not enough advanced stats (major things unanswered or approximated poorly) and too many (because people use them improperly).

[Silver Bullet]

do you have the list ?

Well, yes, part of that is in Dean Oliver's book page 47 (until 2003) and the rest since 2003 is in my head.

mystic if you don't mind - would you mind paraphrasing his explanation for using .475 as a coefficient for FTA.

[ElGee]

TrueLAFan made a point about David Robinson's defensive impact in the playoffs. Indeed, there seems to be some validity to that, if we believe that Robinson has a major influence on their defense as the anchor.

Here are the Spurs DRtg in his 93-96 stretch compared with regular season performance. The opponents ORtg is weighted by games played vs. team (eg a 6 game series counts twice as much as a 3 game series).

1996 111.5 (+8.0 vs. regular season) +4.7 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 112.1
1995 103.1 (-2.3 vs. regular season) -7.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 109.3
1994 110.3 (+5.7 vs. regular season) +5.3 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 108.6
1993 107.0 (+0.2 vs. regular season) -0.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 111.3

So it seems there is something to what TrueLAFan is saying. Perhaps with the exception of 1995's first 2 rounds...but we know what happened after that.

My general problem with Robinson, like everyone else, is his playoff performances. It's not that I viewed him as some sort of choker, just that he faired much better much better in a regular season style and against weaker competition. Which isn't too damning (we shouldn't overstate the unfortunate fact that he ran into Malone and Hakeem at the worst time). His regular seasons still count. I just know what type of contribution I'm getting toward a championship (he's a little too subject to certain styles and matchups, and when he runs into them there's a larger drop off then we see from other stars.)

1993 struggled against Duckworth/Williams vs. Portland. Then a better series against Phoenix (but a bad game 7).
1994 ran into Utah. Struggled.
1995 He DESTROYED LA (Dviac and Campbell) a round before playing Hakeem.
1996 great against Phoenix. Then Utah again...

That's something that I'll take into account, in general, for all of his prime seasons.

[tha_rock220]

1. Jordan
2. David Robinson
3. Hakeem Olajuwon
4. Gary Payton
5. Karl Malone

[Doctor MJ]

Last call. Please make clear any changes you make from this point.

[ElGee]

My 1996 POY Ballot:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. David Robinson
4. Anfernee Hardaway
5. Scottie Pippen

Most of my thoughts are in the thread. Jordan's alone at the top. Malone and Robinson in the next group, and Malone gets the nod based on much of what has been discussed already.

4-6 was between Penny, Pippen and Olajuwon. I'll rarely won't pick the big out of a group, but I thought Olajuwon's playoffs were basically the worst and that was the ultimate factor. I don't think there's really a wrong choice between these three. I thought Hakeem was the "best" player of the 3 at the time, but again, this is based on how they played that year.

[Doctor MJ]

'95-96 Results

Code: Select all

Player             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Michael Jordan   24   0   0   0   0 240   1.000
2. David Robinson    0  11  10   3   0 136   0.567
3. Karl Malone       0  12   4   3   5 118   0.492
4. Anfernee Hardaway 0   0   5   8   5  54   0.225
5. Gary Payton       0   0   2   8   6  40   0.167
6. Hakeem Olajuwon   0   1   2   2   3  26   0.108
7. Scottie Pippen    0   0   1   0   4   9   0.019
8. Shawn Kemp        0   0   0   0   1   1   0.004


[Sedale Threatt]

Dream in sixth. Bastillon's head is going to explode.

[lorak]

TrueLAFan made a point about David Robinson's defensive impact in the playoffs. Indeed, there seems to be some validity to that, if we believe that Robinson has a major influence on their defense as the anchor.

Here are the Spurs DRtg in his 93-96 stretch compared with regular season performance. The opponents ORtg is weighted by games played vs. team (eg a 6 game series counts twice as much as a 3 game series).

1996 111.5 (+8.0 vs. regular season) +4.7 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 112.1
1995 103.1 (-2.3 vs. regular season) -7.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 109.3
1994 110.3 (+5.7 vs. regular season) +5.3 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 108.6
1993 107.0 (+0.2 vs. regular season) -0.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 111.3

So it seems there is something to what TrueLAFan is saying. Perhaps with the exception of 1995's first 2 rounds...but we know what happened after that.

Why you also don’t look at earlier seasons? In fact, why also don’t look at years with Duncan, when for example Robinson played GREAT defense against Shaq?
I would also like if you would do something similar to Hakeem’s and KG’s teams for comparison sake. Because I have feeling that differences in PS are often because it’s always small sample and too much depends on opponent, matchup, number of games.

In fact, I don’t think anything was wrong with Robinson’s defense in PS. Like I said earlier – for example Shaq 2001 played very good against Mutombo, or Hakeem 1994 against all time great D - Knicks. Does it mean that Mutombo or Knicks played bad defense? No, that only means that Shaq or Hakeem were THAT good. Remember, good offense >> good defense. Always.

[Dr Positivity]

Gotta love Karl Malone's longevity. From ages 33-37 he places 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd. He got 2.800 points where most are getting nothing. He's going to put up a HUGE number. He could actually beat Shaq in total shares

[ElGee]

TrueLAFan made a point about David Robinson's defensive impact in the playoffs. Indeed, there seems to be some validity to that, if we believe that Robinson has a major influence on their defense as the anchor.

Here are the Spurs DRtg in his 93-96 stretch compared with regular season performance. The opponents ORtg is weighted by games played vs. team (eg a 6 game series counts twice as much as a 3 game series).

1996 111.5 (+8.0 vs. regular season) +4.7 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 112.1
1995 103.1 (-2.3 vs. regular season) -7.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 109.3
1994 110.3 (+5.7 vs. regular season) +5.3 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 108.6
1993 107.0 (+0.2 vs. regular season) -0.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 111.3

So it seems there is something to what TrueLAFan is saying. Perhaps with the exception of 1995's first 2 rounds...but we know what happened after that.

Why you also don’t look at earlier seasons? In fact, why also don’t look at years with Duncan, when for example Robinson played GREAT defense against Shaq?
I would also like if you would do something similar to Hakeem’s and KG’s teams for comparison sake. Because I have feeling that differences in PS are often because it’s always small sample and too much depends on opponent, matchup, number of games.

In fact, I don’t think anything was wrong with Robinson’s defense in PS. Like I said earlier – for example Shaq 2001 played very good against Mutombo, or Hakeem 1994 against all time great D - Knicks. Does it mean that Mutombo or Knicks played bad defense? No, that only means that Shaq or Hakeem were THAT good. Remember, good offense >> good defense. Always.

Well I'm just presenting the data -- use it as you will. 93-96 is the obvious target set because it's Robinson's prime - he didn't make the playoffs in 92 or 97 (injury). I suppose we could go all the way back to 91 but that was his second year. The point was to isolate from Duncan - pairing defensive bigs together is not an additive effect but an interactive one IMO. Furthermore, I don't think any of us has ever criticized Robinsons for his defense alongside Duncan when he was a co-anchor.

All your other points are fair - that's why I included the opponent offense and league averages. I just followed up his point and presented the data and if you look at the teams and the matchups there seems to be something to it. I've already said that Robinson should have had help vs. Hakeem, so I'm not sure if that was directed at me.

And of course the sample is small, it's the playoffs! It's always small in the playoffs. We're still judging it, I thought.

[lorak]

I've already said that Robinson should have had help vs. Hakeem, so I'm not sure if that was directed at me.

Wasn’t ; )
Just general thought because while criticism of Robinson’s offense in PS is a very good point, criticism of his defense in PS is far away from truth. I mean, If we want to say bad things about his defense so we also should say the same things about Mutombo’s defense, or Knicks 1994, or KG, or even God Himself – Akeem Olajuwon.

[mysticbb]

A stat I really dont get is winshares. I know what it represents (estimated wins by a player), but I don't know why it's used when PER seems to be what it is only better.

Win Shares has in fact a higher correlation to winning. And it is not doing what PER is doing. There is a difference. Win Shares based on Oliver's ORtg and DRtg. It is a different perspective on boxscore stats and as far as I'm concerned it is the better tool. Win Shares is also not minute adjusted, thus a player with more minutes and the same WS/48 will have a higher value.

@SB

In which formula is Oliver using 0.475 as a multiplier for FTA? He is using 0.4, because he found out in his research that 40% of the FTA are ending a possessions. The reason that isn't 0.5 is that there are FTA after a 3pt shot attempt and And1 situations, which increases the amount of FTA, but not the amount of possessions.

[mysticbb]

Which gets back to my point about Pippen's value in the playoffs.

I agree with everything you wrote about Pippen. That is also the reason why I was really confident in my vote and using those stats as a basis. I thought Pippen was better than Payton in 1996. Thus giving him the #5 spot seems to be the correct decision.

[semi-sentient]

Site updated: www.dolem.com/poy

As expected, Jordan overtakes Malone. However, since the next two seasons will not feature Jordan in the top 5, Malone will likely take it back and possibly pass up both KG and Kobe.

Code: Select all

1. Tim Duncan         6.153
2. Shaquille O'Neal   4.898
3. Kobe Bryant        3.658
4. Kevin Garnett      3.388
5. Michael Jordan     2.938