Official Trade Thread XIV: 6/14/10 - 12/22/10

[nate33]

I'm just extremely hesitant to trade away McGee for role players. I have my concerns about McGee, but there's no denying his insane upside. We're a young, rebuilding team, we have the luxury of patience.

With the addition of Wall and a healthy Arenas, we're not going to have the opportunity to acquire any more star caliber big men prospects. Blatche and McGee are all we've got. We can't trade them unless we're getting a star caliber big man prospect in return. A trade like this one makes us better in the short term, but sacrifices any real chance of being an elite team in the future.

[no D in Hibachi]

Doubt that flys for Phily. They're really high on Holiday. In fact I've seen many Phily fans say Holiday has more upside than Wall, FWIW. Also, I did a quick check on their board and they are kicking the idea around of a straight up Young for McGee trade.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Casspi isn't in Thad's league as a defender though, and he's not very athletic to boot.

Thad Young is ideal for a running team, as he can create steals on the defensive end, while finishing on the break on the offensive end. And he's actually younger than McGee. He's not an elite shooter, but he's good enough at it, and can improve with time and repetition.

I wouldn't mind signing Thad Young to a 5 year 25 million dollar extension either.

[Wizardspride]

Also, I did a quick check on their board and they are kicking the idea around of a straight up Young for McGee trade.

And that's exactly why you don't make that deal.

They see what some of us see as well....the freakish upside of McGee.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Eh, I guess; I think Thad Young can be a star on the defensive end of the court, and that AV can be a potential Noah-like player (one could argue he already is).

Also, I think Seraphin has star-caliber upside despite his draft position.

[Hoopalotta]

Thaddues is a restricted free agent and Philly will be in a bit of a pickle to match on him, so we might not need to sacrifice any assets to acquire him if we throw a front loaded offer sheet out there.

Not a fan of these Mcgee trades. The only I'd look at with McGee is a consolidation trade with a few extra assets heading out for another young big who I liked better. Not sure who that is, then you have the fit aspect with Javale's "uptemponess" and it's not very realistic anyway. I think I'd have to hop to it if Marc Gasol was available, even if he's a bit slow (ideally he could fuel the break rather than finish on it).

But as mentioned above, "Javale for roleplayers" deals are bad news. I'd rather keep McGee around and - in the worst worst case - suffer his value erodes rather than deal him prematurely. The worst case of dealing him prematurely sounds Mitch Richmond-ish.

[fishercob]

Chaos, the both your and nate's points, if Thad has star potential, we can probably just get him in free agency this summer. And if Seraphin has Noah-like potential, we should probably just keep McGee's upside instead of paying Varajeo.

As of now, McGee should command a "sure thing" on the trade market that clearly puts the Wiz on another level. I like Varajeo -- I even like him at his salary (I suspect Cleveland does too, btw), but if we have the younger and far cheaper version of him on the roster, then Seraphin is better piece to build with.

The risk is that despite his upside, McGee gets "exposed" over time as someone who will never reach it and his trade value drops accordingly. If the Wiz have serious doubts about McGee realizing his potential, they should move him for top dollar. If they think he'll get there, they should hold on to him.

[Ruzious]

Eh, I guess; I think Thad Young can be a star on the defensive end of the court, and that AV can be a potential Noah-like player (one could argue he already is).

Also, I think Seraphin has star-caliber upside despite his draft position.

I think your reasoning is good there - though I'd reach higher than TYoung in a trade for Jav. If we can get a star player for Jav that may be available due to contract issues, that might be a way to go - if the Wiz think Seraphin is a better fit fo the Wiz.

[Silvie Lysandra]

I think the only guy I see we have a legit shot at is Melo and that's if he thinks Arenas and Wall are the "stars" he wants to play with.

McGee
Yi
Thornton
Young
Booker
unprotected 2011 1st

for Melo

Seems like a low-ball offer though but meh.

[nate33]

I think we can all agree that we need to get a good look at Seraphin before making any decisions on McGee. There are a lot of things to like about Seraphin, but I'm a little concerned with his height and lack of outside touch. I'm not sure if he has the size to be a starting center and I've seen nothing that indicates he has the ball skills and shooting ability to play PF.

Seraphin is often compared to Ibaka but the great thing about Ibaka is that he's a lights out shooter from 15-18 feet. Ibaka's eFG% on jumpers is 46%, which is nothing short of remarkable for a rookie big man. His jumper allows him to blend seamlessly into OKC's offense. Seraphin would just get in the way if he played PF.

Hopefully, Seraphin isn't as short as he appears to be on those Euro highlights. And hopefully, Seraphin has a respectable jumper but just hasn't had the opportunity to show it (sort of like Cousins in college).

[Ruzious]

Fwiw, my impression of Seraphin is that he's basically Horford sized - though it's hard to tell for sure. That's why I'm surprised by the Noah comparisons - since he seems a lot more like Horford than Horford's college teammate.

[Silvie Lysandra]

I was comparing AV to Noah, not Seraphin.

I definitely think Seraphin reminds me of Horford - 6'10, 265-270, etc. He's *a lot* more athletic though, and I think longer too.

[Ruzious]

I was comparing AV to Noah, not Seraphin.

I definitely think Seraphin reminds me of Horford - 6'10, 265-270, etc. He's *a lot* more athletic though, and I think longer too.

It was actually Seraphin's trainer that said he wants Seraphin to be like Noah - according to a quote in the Seraphin thread. It just stuck in my mind, for some reason. People forget Horford was the center when he and Noah played together. He's the one who did the physical work covering guys like Oden underneath, while Noah sort of free-lanced. What a great combination. And Chris Richard was a pretty good backup. Was Speights on that team, too? If yes - that's gotta be one of the best and deepest college front courts ever. And Brewer wasn't bad at the 3.

[doclinkin]

I was comparing AV to Noah, not Seraphin.

I definitely think Seraphin reminds me of Horford - 6'10, 265-270, etc. He's *a lot* more athletic though, and I think longer too.

Maybe more raw muscle, but not more deft and agile. Horford has real skills with the ball, nice passing, etc. Seraphin though has hops and power. He's got longer arms than either Noah or Horford, taller standing reach over both of them. The fact that he has never yet hit a weight room suggest to me that (if he can stay healthy) this kid is going to get muscle-swole with minimal effort.

My most hopeful sign is that he sees as a role model a player like Ben Wallace: no glory, he just wants to play intimidating defense and snatch rebounds, if he can get free buckets jamming the ball home, great.

Personally I think he'll play well off Blatche and John Wall both. And I think he'll prove a nice change of pace from JaVale.

Flip's system often finds a role for less offensively polished players like Ervin Johnson playing off KG. The mid-post Pivot player takes the first pass on the guard cut, the baseline lowpost player steps outside to set a screen. Yes it would be useful and handy if that baseline player could hit a jumper when their man collapses into the paint (McDyess) but as long as the other Big is skilled with the ball you aren't hamstrung by the lack of a midrange game. His job is to screen, rebound, and occasionally catch and dunk. From Euro-footage he's pretty deft with the screen-roll already, and has hands like peachbaskets: huge. John Wall has a second alley-oop target here, this one can actually clear some space for himself in the low post, not merely fly in from the eaves on a trapeze swing if someone leaves room.

Call him PF or C there's a role for a 270 lb mesomorph with a 9'1" standing reach and an aptitude for blocking shots. He'll be a bit of a foul machine at first, as are all rookie Bigs, but even that acts as a bonus. When he fouls, he'll foul heavy.

[Ed Wood]

Don't forget that even now a sizable contingent of Hawks fans would happily while away the evening explaining to you the cruel hobbling that playing center has inflicted on Horford's game. Horford may have earned his wings handing out tickets to the gun show for the Gators but he also did things like hit jumpers and pass in his leisure time.

I like Seraphin a lot; in the moment of that pick no other name would have made me happier coming out of Stern's mouth. But contingent on getting a good look at him and seeing some of that girly flower stuff like dribbling with both hands I'm reining in my expectations and looking to the last buff dude we had who was kinda borderline too short to play center, Etan Thomas. Now Angel Boy has a lot of time to do a little better than that but Wizards aren't in the business of divination after all.

[Dat2U]

OK guys, I went to the measurements database over at DX to see what C's had a standing reach of 9-1 or less, here's what I came up with.

The two best cases for why Seraphin might work as a 6-9 center:

9- 1 Nene - This was good to see. The guy that Seraphin's compared to the most he's got the exact same length. Nene I guess has a longer neck b/c he measured in at 6-9 1/4 W/O shoes. His wingspan is also a 1 1/2 inches longer

8-11 Al Horford - Measured in a shade under 6-9 in socks. Wingspan is only 7- 0 3/4.

Others:

9- 1 Hilton Armstrong
9- 0 1/2 Aaron Gray
9- 0 Nick Collison
9-0 Kwame Brown

Not a very deep list. Seraphin is definitely on the shorter side of the ledger. However size wise, he's as long as Nene and longer than Horford. The two players he just happens to be compared to the most. But outside of those two you've got nothing more than backups and PFs. So while there is evidence that he could potentially be an effective center, the odds are certainly stacked against him.

I'm not crazy about the 278 lbs either. If he's 6- 9 in shoes that means he's a legit 6- 7 1/2 or 6- 7 3/4 in socks. That's getting near Jahidi White dimensions with a couple of burritos from Chipolte. I'd personally like to see him in the 265-270 range.

I'm very interested to see what type of skillset he has offensively. The guy is like a total mystery to me. I know so little about him other than a few dunks on some grainy video.

[sfam]

^^ I gotta voice serious doubts about the weight measurement. In no vid of Seraphin that I've seen does he look anything like 278.

[Benjammin]

^^ I gotta voice serious doubts about the weight measurement. In no vid of Seraphin that I've seen does he look anything like 278.

The 278 comes from a draft express tweet. That same day they had another tweet saying he weighed 264. If he's 278 at 6-9, I agree he certainly doesn't show in highlights as an overweight player at all.

[nate33]

Simple trade:

Washington trades: Yi
Portland trades: Pryzbilla

Portland trades a redundant big for depth and potential at PF.

We complete our roster assuming we sign Singleton:

PG Wall/Hinrich
SG Arenas/Young
SF Howard/Thornton/Booker
PF Blatche/Singleton/Seraphin
C Pryzbilla/McGee/Armstrong

That's a surefire playoff team. There's an excelllent balance of young talent, veteran guile, athleticism, and toughness. Winning is the best teacher for this group. Booker and Seraphin spend a year learning from the bench before becoming rotation players next year.

[fishercob]

I like that a lot nate, but I'm not sure what it does for Portland. There's been a good amount of chatter amongst their fans about trying to find a way to land Kirilenko from Utah. Here's what I came up with:

Portland trades: Pryz, Babbitt, Rudy, Miller**, $3M cash
Portland gets: Kirilenko

Portland includes Rudy and the cash as a wink-wink enticement for Washington to buy out Miller so he can re-sign with Portland. It's essentially Rudy, Babbitt and Pryz for AK. The Blazers then roll with:

Miller, Roy, Batum, LMA, Camby with Oden, AK, Matthews and Bayless rounding out the rotation. E. Williams, Cunningham, etc are still there for depth. If healthy, that's a legit title contender, IMO.


Utah trades: Kirilenko
Utah gets: Hinrich, Pryzbilla (and Al Thornton if they want to pay him $2.8M this year)

Jazz fill a need with a versatile, unselfish guard and a center who can rebound and protect the rim. If they feel they need the SF depth, they can have Al Thornton for the year. I assume they don't want him because they'll be in the tax, so they roll with:

Deron, Bell, Miles, Jefferson, Okur, with Hinrich, Hayward, Millsap and Pryz off the bench and Price, Gaines, and Fesenko for depth.

Wizards trade: Hinrich (+ Al Thornton if Utah wants him)
Wizards get: Dre Miller**, Rudy, Babbitt, $3M cash

We take a step back in the short term and lose Hinrich's character in the locker room. Replacing Hinrich with Rudy as our third guard means that Arenas is our starting SG and our primary backup PG. That's a lot to handle and may not be the way to best "showcase" Gil as a superstar SG.

However, we clear Hinrich off of next year's cap. We add two more cheap young talents to aid in the rebuild. Healthy, we'd look something like this:

Wall (36) Gil (12)
Gil (20) Rudy (20) Young (8)
Howard (28) Babbitt (15) Thornton, Booker, Yi (scraps)
Blatche (36) Yi (10)
McGee (28) Seraphin (15) Armstrong (5)

We roll into next summer with Gil (assuming he's not dealt at the deadline), Wall, Rudy, Babbitt, Booker, Blatche, McGee, and Seraphin under contract and a lot of flexibility. We'd be replete with assets and cap space to make a major acquisition if we so chose.

I think given the right situation and opportunity that Rudy is a starting quality NBA SG in the rip Hamilton mold. Babbitt's shooting would be a great complement to Wall's pick and roll game.