Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LIV "Lottery/Draft"Edition)

[NickAnderson]

Big man and knee injuries are different.

[rcklsscognition]

Is the low opportunity cost of Noel making GMs want to pick him?

[MagicFan41]

Is the low opportunity cost of Noel making GMs want to pick him?

Yup. Along with the combo of sitting him most of the year to tank. It's a perfect scenario. If he doesn't pan out, oh well, you still got a higher draft pick next year and probably didn't miss out on any other superstar this year. It's a low risk/high reward scenario. If he does pan out, you get to pair him with another superstar you possibly get high next year.

[Skin]

I can't ever wrap my head around guys who try to substantiate the validity of a player because "the experts say so". How many times do we have to follow "the experts" off a cliff before we start to say "hey they might not always be right"? Busts happen all the time. The experts get it wrong all the time.

If you use revisionist hindsight, NBA drafts would look very different from reality.

If you want to ignore Noel's injury fine. Its only one of the risk factors to consider.

[rcklsscognition]

I can't ever wrap my head around guys who try to substantiate the validity of a player because "the experts say so". How many times do we have to follow "the experts" off a cliff before we start to say "hey they might not always be right"? Busts happen all the time. The experts get it wrong all the time.

If you use revisionist hindsight, NBA drafts would look very different from reality.

If you want to ignore Noel's injury fine. Its only one of the risk factors to consider.

I have not seen any evidence from anyone saying that Noel's injury history will be a problem for him in the future. The entire history of the NBA draft is littered with injured guys that recovered, injured guys that never recovered, healthy guys that got injured and recovered, healthy guys that got injured and never recovered. No discernible trait to identify busts. I see no other potential superstars jumping off the page in the draft. Will there be a guy or two in the draft that goes 4-20 that ends up being a great starter, probably. There will also be a guy or two that goes 1-4 that won't be as great as planned.

Like MagicFan41 and I were just discussing, the opportunity cost for Noel is really low if there are no other superstars in the draft. It's like free money. I like the fact that he may be good, that he's going to be out probably 3-6 months next season, and we'll likely be in a good lotto slot in the 2014 draft.

You can say the same thing about Burke, drafting him is low risk. If he sucks, we get a good pick in 2014. But why pass on the guy who has the rarest skills if we're just picking guys we are unsure of?

[dsg2021]

The reason I'm not worried about Noel's injury history is bc I think the Magic would be ultra smart with him, being conservative every season and even saving him floor time in the seasons that lead up to playoffs/outside 1st round playoffs.

[Skin]

That is true. But who do you suggest we pick then? Burke is pretty small as a PG, And would only put us in the same position as we are with Meer now. Mclemore has already struggled to create his own shots in the NCAA, what more in the NBA? Also, lets not gorget Noel has the most upside for this group, i think thats obvious in this group. Its a high risk to pick Noel, but if he pans out great, he'll definitely make a huge difference compared to McLemore and Burke.

Is Chris Paul the same as Meer because he's small too?

BTW, when did this forum start hating Meer? Ever since I've been here I've battled the Meer lovers. Now days it seems like Meer bashing is a common and accepted thing.

Meer was a scorer. That's what he was good at. As for his job as a PG, he was pathetic. Could not be a playmaker to save his life. Hedo had to do that for us. Defensively, he was a joke. His short arms prevented him from having the length to do much.

[MagicFan32]

How are Andrew Bynum's ACL's coming along these days?

I think it's a completely different story when you're talking about 7 footers. The knees have to hold up so much more body frame.

completely different.
once again the difference is how they move.
Bynum has ALWAYS looked like he was bordering on being injured, the way he lumbers up and down the court
Noel moves like his height is natural for him, and is extremely fluid athletically. Oden had the same problem, Noel moves like a smaller guy. if the doctors say he'll be fine, you take him

Noel has game, this kid isn't Kwame, he can pass the ball and has a very high IQ on defense.

[Skin]

How are Andrew Bynum's ACL's coming along these days?

I think it's a completely different story when you're talking about 7 footers. The knees have to hold up so much more body frame.

completely different.
once again the difference is how they move.
Bynum has ALWAYS looked like he was bordering on being injured, the way he lumbers up and down the court
Noel moves like his height is natural for him, and is extremely fluid athletically. Oden had the same problem, Noel moves like a smaller guy. if the doctors say he'll be fine, you take him

Noel has game, this kid isn't Kwame, he can pass the ball and has a very high IQ on defense.

High IQ on defense... what makes you stop there? You know his game IQ is poor huh. lol. It's true though.

That's the thing everybody loves about Noel. His shot blocking. It doesn't matter if he offers nothing else. But since he can block shots, he's pretty much golden. Forget the fact that defense is more than just blocking or redirecting shots. You gotta be able to body people up. Noel can't do that. He has a very slight frame. We're not exactly talking Alonzo Mourning here. It's more like Manute Bol or Shawn Bradley.

[Bensational]

How are Andrew Bynum's ACL's coming along these days?

I think it's a completely different story when you're talking about 7 footers. The knees have to hold up so much more body frame.

completely different.
once again the difference is how they move.
Bynum has ALWAYS looked like he was bordering on being injured, the way he lumbers up and down the court
Noel moves like his height is natural for him, and is extremely fluid athletically. Oden had the same problem, Noel moves like a smaller guy. if the doctors say he'll be fine, you take him

Noel has game, this kid isn't Kwame, he can pass the ball and has a very high IQ on defense.

High IQ on defense... what makes you stop there? You know his game IQ is poor huh. lol. It's true though.

That's the thing everybody loves about Noel. His shot blocking. It doesn't matter if he offers nothing else. But since he can block shots, he's pretty much golden. Forget the fact that defense is more than just blocking or redirecting shots. You gotta be able to body people up. Noel can't do that. He has a very slight frame. We're not exactly talking Alonzo Mourning here. It's more like Manute Bol or Shawn Bradley.

we're not talking Ibaka style weakside blocking, either, we're talking a Dwight Howard roaming defensive anchor. Neon posted some solid stats which show just how much Noel's presence impacts interior defense. not necessarily from blocked shots, but just from his presence forcing players into lower efficiency shots in what is otherwise the most dangerously efficient location to be shooting from. he doesn't have to body everyone up, because it's not just bigs that take interior FGAs. between him and Vuc we could easily coordinate a defense that allows him to roam whilst Vuc bodies up against the biggest low post threat.

Sanders and Hibbert have the same impact.

[MagicFan32]

How are Andrew Bynum's ACL's coming along these days?

I think it's a completely different story when you're talking about 7 footers. The knees have to hold up so much more body frame.

completely different.
once again the difference is how they move.
Bynum has ALWAYS looked like he was bordering on being injured, the way he lumbers up and down the court
Noel moves like his height is natural for him, and is extremely fluid athletically. Oden had the same problem, Noel moves like a smaller guy. if the doctors say he'll be fine, you take him

Noel has game, this kid isn't Kwame, he can pass the ball and has a very high IQ on defense.

High IQ on defense... what makes you stop there? You know his game IQ is poor huh. lol. It's true though.

That's the thing everybody loves about Noel. His shot blocking. It doesn't matter if he offers nothing else. But since he can block shots, he's pretty much golden. Forget the fact that defense is more than just blocking or redirecting shots. You gotta be able to body people up. Noel can't do that. He has a very slight frame. We're not exactly talking Alonzo Mourning here. It's more like Manute Bol or Shawn Bradley.

Um, no you couldn't be more wrong. i went from a person who didn't really like him, to liking him alot because he substantially improved throughout the season. he matured alot and he is NOT a dumb player by any stretch, any big that can pass like him has a feel for the game, he is just very smart on defense. if he has a chance to block the ball inbounds so his team can get it, he does that. he just doesn't have much of a post game but i wouldn't attribute that to a low IQ. you have no basis for saying he has a low basketball IQ, none.

the guy stuffs the stat sheet, he gets steals, blocks, rebounds, points, and assists and can do it without having any plays called for him. if he develops any sort of post game he will be an all star type player

[CPBalla2003 n da 863]

I honestly think we are going to draft Mclemore, it seems like a safe move, i prefer Burke. if Hennigan sees that Noel can fit into future plans, maybe he will take a risk... it's a consensus #1 pick, but it's makes it a difficult because of the injury history.

[KillMonger]

Noel could indeed end up being a game changing defender but I remember Hasheem Thabeet getting comparisons to Dikembe. Saying Noel could be like Dwight is a stretch. Well maybe not, like Dwight Noel will never be able to get the ball or stay on the floor in late game situations since he's a horrible free throw shooter.

Probably will never have a decent post game either, some guys just have their own lane. Noel is the Alley oop and the occasional jump hook type of offensive player and that's ok for him imo. I think Larry Sanders/Camby is a good comparison for him

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[Optimus_Steel]

Noel's ability to injure himself scares the crap out of me. We got to get this draft right and I don't think he is worth the risk if we are picking #1.

NBA Draft.net had us taking Noel a few weeks ago, now they have Mclemore going 1st and Burke sliding down to 7th which I find odd. Cody Zeller for some reason is at #4.

[Neon1]

Noel could indeed end up being a game changing defender but I remember Hasheem Thabeet getting comparisons to Dikembe. Saying Noel could be like Dwight is a stretch. Well maybe not, like Dwight Noel will never be able to get the ball or stay on the floor in late game situations since he's a horrible free throw shooter.

Probably will never have a decent post game either, some guys just have their own lane. Noel is the Alley oop and the occasional jump hook type of offensive player and that's ok for him imo. I think Larry Sanders/Camby is a good comparison for him

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He's Tyson Chandler/DeAndre Jordan on offense and a strengths/weakness mix of Camby/Sanders/Dwight/Chandler he is somewhere in that lane.

[KillMonger]

Noel could indeed end up being a game changing defender but I remember Hasheem Thabeet getting comparisons to Dikembe. Saying Noel could be like Dwight is a stretch. Well maybe not, like Dwight Noel will never be able to get the ball or stay on the floor in late game situations since he's a horrible free throw shooter.

Probably will never have a decent post game either, some guys just have their own lane. Noel is the Alley oop and the occasional jump hook type of offensive player and that's ok for him imo. I think Larry Sanders/Camby is a good comparison for him

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He's Tyson Chandler/DeAndre Jordan on offense and a strengths/weakness mix of Camby/Sanders/Dwight/Chandler he is somewhere in that lane.

I think that's fair to say, pretty much spot on

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[pogiro]

Picking Noel doesn't just address our PF, it allows us to be set at C with Vucevic. We gotta make up for Vucevic's lead feet some how. A guy like Noel is exactly the kind of player you want to do so. Barring injury, I know big assumption, but if we assume that his future isn't littered with injuries, then our front court is set and would be a championship caliber front court.

If you have a chance to bring in a player that can do that to your team, you get him. Sure he has weaknesses. But we don't need everyone to be an offensive threat. There's only one ball. But if everyone is good on defense, then our team can go places.

[RYgoBOOM]

Edit:Thank god for the combine this week

[Magicalltheway]

im just not a fan of taking the best player available for our team. I believe we have to pick a player to address our needs. the glaring holes are Center and pg. I am more than happy with Tobi and Hark at 2 and 3. Noel to me is a risk im just not willing to waste my high pick on. His careless landings freak the hell out of me and that tells me this wont be his last injury.

Many are shutting down Burk because of his height, understandably so, but his demeanor and the fight in him just wins my vote.

Its not like we absolutely have to have a C next season with BBD and Vuc but a pg is an absolute must and who better than Burk.

[BadMofoPimp]

Noel has game, this kid isn't Kwame, he can pass the ball and has a very high IQ on defense.

Actually, Kwame is a perfect comparison to Noel. Kwame was very dominate as an 18 year old against inferior competition. Noel doesn't have good hands to catch passes. He is an ok passer in College, but the NBA is much faster with smarter defensive players. If opponents know that Noel couldn't score the ball to save his life, then they will block out passing lanes rendering Noel inneficient. He does have high IQ on defense but I doubt he will be capable of boxing people out to get boards. In college, he had 6" on most of his opponents which makes those rebounding averages very deceiving. Take a gimpy skinny kid against NBA bigs and he will get totally worked. His knees won't handle the pounding especially if his knee snapped with no contact once already.