Braun to admit to PED use on 8/19

[Kerb Hohl]

But what if there's absolutely nothing to reveal? You seem to be in the camp that you're going to forever believe he's always been cheating, and that nothing short of a full admission will satisfy you. I guess I don't know what to say that would make you feel better about this if there's nothing left to tell.

He's doubling down on the common strategy. Only reveal (or lie about) what you have to. If you get caught, THEN you're screwed.

Of course, this is the million dollar issue (well, who cares at this point really). Has he always been using? We won't know unless he gets caught or more evidence comes out, which is exactly why he's saying what he is. Maybe he's just being honest or maybe he's doubling down on what he and every other guy that has gotten caught has done.

Watch an episode of COPS and see some guy with no teeth get caught for meth or some creepy guy is picking up a prostitute. When the cop asks if they do this often, they always say "first time." Maybe it's unfair to Braun but he and basically every other MLB guy caught has seemed to lie and if they are caught then only admit what they're caught for.

[ReasonablySober]

Yeah, finally admitting to people you're a one-time user works for a lot of people. Ask A-Rod.

'How did it work for Andy Petitte? It works if you are a one time user.

This is from a Mike Bauman (who?) column:

This statement from Braun, the erstwhile Brewers left fielder, is sorely lacking in specificity. What drug was he taking? He tested positive for drastically elevated levels of testosterone, so synthetic testosterone would be a reasonable estimate. But you won't find that in his statement.

Okay, so he gives the names of the drugs and you're satisfied then?

From a Craig Calcaterra article this morning:

Well, if you look right at his statement he says “The products were a cream and a lozenge which I was told could help expedite my rehabilitation.” Does Olney want a chemical breakdown of the substances? Does he think Braun even knows? Go read “Game of Shadows” and the BALCO grand jury testimony to see how naive and willfully ignorant ballplayers are about what they use. Braun probably doesn’t know. Heck, even if he does what difference would it make? Show me one instance where baseball writers have made meaningful distinctions between anabolic steroids, HGH, testosterone and other things. They all treat them like magic pills which bestow super powers, so Braun not breaking them down here makes zero difference.

Again, from the Bauman article:

Braun said he was recovering from a nagging injury when he took PEDs. But he doesn't say what injury. The basic questions go unanswered here.

Dude. Do a simple search on Rotoworld. It takes all of one minute to find out he missed time starting in late July with a strained calf and back.

[humanrefutation]

According to published reports, the account Braun gave is what the evidence shows. There's nothing more to admit.

Like I said, I think he should do a press conference too. Not because he owes anyone anything else, but out of self-preservation.

There's a bit a problem there, though. He didn't reveal is PED use in 2011 because he had no reason to do so then, either. He won his case. He thought he had survived that situation. And then, about a year later, it all came crashing down on him because someone talked. Like you said earlier, if he just accepted his 50 game suspension then, it would've died down by now.

In the same vein, if he was using previously, or currently, the fact that there is no evidence indicating that's the case right now doesn't mean that evidence won't reveal itself in the future. Getting it all out on the table is the best thing for him.

I don't know if he was, but if I had to bet my life on it, I'd say he's always been using and just happened to get caught in 2011. I tend to be skeptical to claims that he just slipped up once. And revealing it all right now - when he has no reason to do so other than a desire to be honest - could earn him tremendous PR.

But what if there's absolutely nothing to reveal? You seem to be in the camp that you're going to forever believe he's always been cheating, and that nothing short of a full admission will satisfy you. I guess I don't know what to say that would make you feel better about this if there's nothing left to tell.

Well, either way, he's **** for the time being. The only thing he'll need to do is be clean for the rest of his career and hope nothing ever comes out about him using outside of the time he's copped to. I'm not willing to bet that that'll happen, though.

[Kerb Hohl]

And for the record, I don't care if he is NOW telling the truth or if there was a lot of other use and he's lying again. The damage is done. Obviously nothing else will come of it probably even if somehow they do find out that he was using in 2009 or something. I doubt he would get a backdated suspension or something.

However, I'm just saying that in the court of new unfair opinion, I don't blame anyone for not believing him. We see this dance all the time, including once already from Braun.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, finally admitting to people you're a one-time user works for a lot of people. Ask A-Rod.

'How did it work for Andy Petitte? It works if you are a one time user.

Petitte never got caught again. He lies in the same camp as a lot of guys like Poo Holes (let's say he was on roids) that he will only admit (or deny) what he has to.

Petitte could have used it 1000 times but nobody has investigated or done the homework and nobody probably cares. Just like everyone believed A-Rod until something came up that they had to investigate again.

Braun could be unfairly not believed here. Maybe he really only did use once. However, he already lied once and his new admission is in the same light as we've seen every baseball player or even actual drug user do. "Yeah, fine, I did it. Just once."

The story checks out just fine until something comes up. Like I said, he's doubling down on the gamble that nothing will come up again or he's flat-out just telling us the truth. Even with the cases of A-Rod, Braun, etc. of guys being caught in lies, the gamble still pays off 90% of the time, so he may get away with it if he's really lying.

[Kerb Hohl]

Here's the blueprint:

1. Everyone assumes your innocence if you've never been caught or accused.
2. If suspected or partially caught, tell everyone adamantly that you didn't do it until the smoking gun is in your hands.
3. If caught, tell everyone that you did it once to recover from an injury.
4. If caught twice, tell them you got hurt again and tried to recover.
5. If caught more than that, go into hiding.

Name a guy that hasn't followed that blueprint.

Maybe Braun did it once, I'm just saying I never believe these guys. The steps are right there.

[ReasonablySober]

Here's the blueprint:

1. Everyone assumes your innocence if you've never been caught or accused.
2. If suspected or partially caught, tell everyone adamantly that you didn't do it until the smoking gun is in your hands.
3. If caught, tell everyone that you did it once to recover from an injury.
4. If caught twice, tell them you got hurt again and tried to recover.
5. If caught more than that, go into hiding.

Name a guy that hasn't followed that blueprint.

Maybe Braun did it once, I'm just saying I never believe these guys. The steps are right there.

I guess I don't see any point in a single thing you've posted in the last two days. Seriously. Are you saying he's lying? You think he's lying? You think everyone that gets caught is a habitual cheater?

I have absolutely no idea if Braun is or isn't a habitual cheater. All I'm going on is the circumstance and the evidence. MLB is saying they have no evidence to go against Braun's accounting of events. It doesn't mean that there isn't any evidence, but then again there isn't any evidence out there of me murdering someone because it didn't happen.

You can can take him at face value and hope he's been clean, you can disregard his statement and assume he's been dirty for a long time and now just got caught, or you can simply say you don't know.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'm saying you guys believed his first BS and now will take this one at face value. I'm saying I'll take it and don't care much but I sure as hell wouldn't defend his "one time" admission to anyone else.

[Captain Erv]

The issue now that is if you take a reasonable and logical approach to his statement you are automatically a homer, or delusional, or just 'drinking the Braun kool-aid.'

[humanrefutation]

It seems that the most central debate here isn't about a matter of evidence, but a matter of credibility.

Sure, if you look at all of the evidence so far (and disregard the lawsuit), there isn't anything out there that implicates Braun outside of the period of time he alleged he was using. I'm not denying this, and I don't think anyone else is.

And could he be clean otherwise? Sure. There is no evidence indicating otherwise.

But I think people PP, Grendon, and myself are simply stating that it isn't out of the realm of possibility - and seems to fit a historical pattern with players in similarly situated positions - that Braun was using beforehand. You have the lawsuit in which someone claims he was using back at U of Miami. There was this post I made back in January referencing an article which cites the fact that Miami was ground zero for PED use. Lastly, the fact that he's lied once already - and done so in an obnoxious manner - caused him to have zero credibility.

Is all of that circumstantial? Yeah. But all it takes is one domino to drop and it can all come to blow up in his face, again. And it's happened once already.

The good old "fool me once" adage comes into play here. There are folks like me who think that this whole situation smells funny.

So sure, there is no evidence right now. But the fact that the evidence hasn't appeared doesn't mean that it won't, and right now, he's lost the presumption of innocence. He'll have to prove he's clean through the rest of his career.

[ReasonablySober]

I'm saying you guys believed his first BS and now will take this one at face value. I'm saying I'll take it and don't care much but I sure as hell wouldn't defend his "one time" admission to anyone else.

You guys? I went back and looked at my posts to be sure, but I sure as hell never went around screaming he never took anything.

Bottom line is he rightfully got off because the test collector didn't do his job, and MLB used a sample they shouldn't have. The guy is no longer a test collector because he **** up, and MLB had to change its testing procedures as a result of it all. That was my take on the entire situation. I'm not naive enough to think he never took something. My hope through all of it was if he did, that it was over a brief period of time to aid in recovery.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

I'm saying you guys believed his first BS and now will take this one at face value. I'm saying I'll take it and don't care much but I sure as hell wouldn't defend his "one time" admission to anyone else.

You guys? I went back and looked at my posts to be sure, but I sure as hell never went around screaming he never took anything.

Bottom line is he rightfully got off because the test collector didn't do his job, and MLB used a sample they shouldn't have. The guy is no longer a test collector because he **** up, and MLB had to change its testing procedures as a result of it all. That was my take on the entire situation. I'm not naive enough to think he never took something. My hope through all of it was if he did, that it was over a brief period of time to aid in recovery.

I was under the impression he IS still a collector. And if so thats pretty **** up.

[ReasonablySober]

I read that he works at the company but not as a collector.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

I read that he works at the company but not as a collector.

Oh ok, I just remember the news story around when Braun took the suspension this year where they said something about hes still a collector but no longer does so for Brewers players or something like that.

[Run-MKE 311]

Time for Braun to just go away for a while...I do not want a press conference right now. I want this lawsuit resolved and everything around it to come out.

Then if we have finally flushed everything out, lets let him face the firing squad of questions...For now I am done.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

Honestly when it comes to Braun its whatever. Yeah he cheated, yeah he lied, its time for people to move on. Hes been suspended, his reputation is garbage, theres basically no chance of him ever getting in to the HOF, what more are people expecting to happen? Unfortunately though BSPN (among others, but they seem to be the ones with the biggest grudge against him for whatever reason, I swear he slept with whoever is in charges daughter or something) will continue to dredge up "stories" from "sources" instead of just running the facts when there is actual news. If he does well upon his return most Brewers fans aren't gonna give a **** one way or another that this happened (eventually). Some people are going to hold on to whatever pisses them off about the situation regardless (moreso because thats how they live their lives in general). I hope he does well for the sake of the team and thats it.

Maybe thats my perspective because he was never "my guy", maybe I'd react differently if a player I really liked had a situation like this happen but I can't say for sure. I'd like to think not though.

[humanrefutation]

I don't get the bashing on ESPN at this point. I bashed them beforehand for their irresponsible speculation and for rushing to conclusions before the appeal was decided, and noted how they held a grudge after he won the appeal. But now that everything has come out, I haven't read anything on the site or seen anything on the network that seems to be ludicrous or otherwise misinformed in relation to the Braun situation.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

I don't get the bashing on ESPN at this point. I bashed them beforehand for their irresponsible speculation and for rushing to conclusions before the appeal was decided, and noted how they held a grudge after he won the appeal. But now that everything has come out, I haven't read anything on the site or seen anything on the network that seems to be ludicrous or otherwise misinformed in relation to the Braun situation.

Their irresponsible reporting of the lobbying for players support for one. They ran as fast as they could with the whole Anti-semtic thing and made it front page news. But when thats proven false by players like Tulo they don't bother to throw that in until days later and then its not front page news because they were wrong in their original report.
And of course what do the majority of people (the ones who just hear the headlines and don't read the follow up or other stories) gather from it then? Only the original story and they take that as fact. Which becomes annoying when you have to explain to those people that just because it was run as a front page headline doesn't mean it was fact and the end of the story.

ETA: I realize media is all about sensationalism and grabbing attention, I'm not saying BSPN is the only organization to ever do so.

[ReasonablySober]

I don't get the bashing on ESPN at this point. I bashed them beforehand for their irresponsible speculation and for rushing to conclusions before the appeal was decided, and noted how they held a grudge after he won the appeal. But now that everything has come out, I haven't read anything on the site or seen anything on the network that seems to be ludicrous or otherwise misinformed in relation to the Braun situation.

At noon I flipped on ESPN Radio, hoping to get SVP and Russillo's take. They had two subs instead, and of course it was exactly what I expected. There was no reason or logic or levity. What you got was loud yelling that of course this wasn't the whole story:

"Oh, I KNOW he did more." yelled one guy.

Oh, you do? You know more than Major League Baseball investigators? More than Ken Rosenthal's source? Let's hear it. This is what perpetually pisses me off about ESPN.

Like someone said above. If you come at this with a rational, level-headed perspective you're simply a homer. It's easier for ESPN to sensationalize than it is analyze.

[trwi7]

ESPN still deserves a **** load of bashing for leaking a confidential test. No leak, nobody knows, no speech, no lies and he's basically like Nelson Cruz or Everth Cabrera.