Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

Thanks for the work. Just a quick note, varejao would stretch over 5. " All seasons remaining on a contract are considered "remaining seasons" for the purpose of the stretch provision except seasons following a team option. For example, the Clippers waived and stretched Miroslav Raduljica in 2014 with two seasons remaining on his contract, one fully guaranteed and the other non-guaranteed. Both seasons counted in his stretch calculation, so his remaining guaranteed salary was stretched over five seasons."

yeah, I see that. It's a footnote in section 65 of the CBA FAQ

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q65

what confuses me a bit is in the main part of that section:

If the player is waived from September 1 to June 30, then the current season is paid per the normal payment schedule, and any remaining years are stretched over twice the number of years remaining plus one as described above. For example, if the player is waived on December 1 with two seasons remaining on his contract at $10.2 million and $10.5 million, respectively, then the current season (at $10.2 million) is paid normally, and the final season (at $10.5 million) is stretched over three years (one season times two, plus one) and paid in even amounts of $3.5 million per year4.

now, as I read that entire section, I'm wondering if the part I just quoted is talking about how a player is paid, while the part you quoted is talking about how the player's contract is dealt with in the team's cap calculation?

or maybe Raduljica was waived between July 1 and August 1?

I'm curious how it would change Portland's cap calculation. if it's a 5 year stretch does that mean that all of Varajao's 2015-16 salary is added to his guaranteed salary for next season and then divided by 5? Or do they pro-rate this year's salary according to how much is left to pay?

in any event, it probably wouldn't increase portland's cap-space by much

[cucad8]

Thanks for the work. Just a quick note, varejao would stretch over 5. " All seasons remaining on a contract are considered "remaining seasons" for the purpose of the stretch provision except seasons following a team option. For example, the Clippers waived and stretched Miroslav Raduljica in 2014 with two seasons remaining on his contract, one fully guaranteed and the other non-guaranteed. Both seasons counted in his stretch calculation, so his remaining guaranteed salary was stretched over five seasons."

yeah, I see that. It's a footnote in section 65 of the CBA FAQ

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q65

what confuses me a bit is in the main part of that section:

If the player is waived from September 1 to June 30, then the current season is paid per the normal payment schedule, and any remaining years are stretched over twice the number of years remaining plus one as described above. For example, if the player is waived on December 1 with two seasons remaining on his contract at $10.2 million and $10.5 million, respectively, then the current season (at $10.2 million) is paid normally, and the final season (at $10.5 million) is stretched over three years (one season times two, plus one) and paid in even amounts of $3.5 million per year4.

now, as I read that entire section, I'm wondering if the part I just quoted is talking about how a player is paid, while the part you quoted is talking about how the player's contract is dealt with in the team's cap calculation?

or maybe Raduljica was waived between July 1 and August 1?

I'm curious how it would change Portland's cap calculation. if it's a 5 year stretch does that mean that all of Varajao's 2015-16 salary is added to his guaranteed salary for next season and then divided by 5? Or do they pro-rate this year's salary according to how much is left to pay?

in any event, it probably wouldn't increase portland's cap-space by much

My reading of it is, and could be wrong, that their current season is paid normal. So we pay varejao his full 15/16 salary. Then after that, it's stretched. So with 2 years after this, it stretches to 5. Maybe a way to prevent people from getting under tax by waving a guy, and stretching that over 7 years, but dropping his current salary?

[Wizenheimer]

Thanks for the work. Just a quick note, varejao would stretch over 5. " All seasons remaining on a contract are considered "remaining seasons" for the purpose of the stretch provision except seasons following a team option. For example, the Clippers waived and stretched Miroslav Raduljica in 2014 with two seasons remaining on his contract, one fully guaranteed and the other non-guaranteed. Both seasons counted in his stretch calculation, so his remaining guaranteed salary was stretched over five seasons."

yeah, I see that. It's a footnote in section 65 of the CBA FAQ

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q65

what confuses me a bit is in the main part of that section:

If the player is waived from September 1 to June 30, then the current season is paid per the normal payment schedule, and any remaining years are stretched over twice the number of years remaining plus one as described above. For example, if the player is waived on December 1 with two seasons remaining on his contract at $10.2 million and $10.5 million, respectively, then the current season (at $10.2 million) is paid normally, and the final season (at $10.5 million) is stretched over three years (one season times two, plus one) and paid in even amounts of $3.5 million per year4.

now, as I read that entire section, I'm wondering if the part I just quoted is talking about how a player is paid, while the part you quoted is talking about how the player's contract is dealt with in the team's cap calculation?

or maybe Raduljica was waived between July 1 and August 1?

I'm curious how it would change Portland's cap calculation. if it's a 5 year stretch does that mean that all of Varajao's 2015-16 salary is added to his guaranteed salary for next season and then divided by 5? Or do they pro-rate this year's salary according to how much is left to pay?

in any event, it probably wouldn't increase portland's cap-space by much

My reading of it is, and could be wrong, that their current season is paid normal. So we pay varejao his full 15/16 salary. Then after that, it's stretched. So with 2 years after this, it stretches to 5. Maybe a way to prevent people from getting under tax by waving a guy, and stretching that over 7 years, but dropping his current salary?

he has 2 years on his contract, but only next season is guaranteed, and that's guaranteed at 1 million less then his salary...the guaranteed amount is $9,361,446

http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/POR.html

however, that footnote you cited seems to explain what's happening: 2 years left on the deal X 2 +1 gets to 5 and then divide the 9.3 million by 5, not 3. That assumes that the non-guaranteed year isn't defined as a team option, and I don't think it is. I was disregarding that 2nd season because it was non-guaranteed while the CBA seems to say it's used in the calculation

this would give Portland an extra 1.5 million in space. That probably won't make any difference, but who knows

by the way, while Blazer fans were happy with the Varajao deal that brought in an extra 2018 first round pick, I doubt the Blazer players are. Because Portland was under the salary floor, Varajao's salary gets applied to the Blazer cap, and every dollar of that was going to be divided between the players if that trade didn't go thru...they just 'lost' 10.3 million off their 12 million bonus....ouch!

[cucad8]

this would give Portland an extra 1.5 million in space. That probably won't make any difference, but who knows

That's the biggest take away here. Ultimately, it's not ahuge change. Likely to be completely insignificant in what we can accomplish this offseason. I more just wanted to point out the rule, because I've seen it discussed on the general board previously, with the same thought, that it was just guaranteed years.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Here's a bit of encouragement for Wiz or other posters, here, to generate a draft wishlist ... not top picks or anything unrealistic, but the acquisition of picks to make my annual trip to Portland for the Blazers' draft more fun -- for me.

I've been a fan of Domantas Sabonis since I saw early youtube on him. He has relatively narrow shoulders and ordinary wingspan, but he's got grit, developing skills, and an NBA future. Unfortunately, he's moving up in the draft from earlier bottom third of the 1st round status. He looks an anti-Leonard type of PF/C.

Gary Payton Jr. is older as a college guy, but he D's up. A guy to work with as a 2nd rounder.

And now the word is that Boucher out of Oregon is declaring for the draft ... even though the Ducks got approval for an extra year for him. If true ... the guy is a toothpick and has little experience with the game, but that's a kid to develop -- 3 point shooting, hops and wings, and rim defense. A 2nd rounder with a 15-20' ceiling.

[Jsun947]

I updated the main page for a 92 million cap with Lillard hitting the rose rule, for Crabbe's new cap hold, and the assumption that Varejao's contract is stretched over 5 years.

We can stop the Derozan dream. He's said himself that him and Lowry are like brothers and he hasn't considered leaving. Those two are really tight and he loves it there.

Meyer's injury and surgery have terrible timing for him. I have absolutely no idea whats going to happen with contract offers coming his way.

[Jsun947]

This game illustrates our biggest problem as a team going forward.

The Clippers are hard double teaming Lillard & McCollum. Davis or Plumlee are standing at the top of the 3 point line and Jordan is sagging 5 feet from them. If they catch it they can't do anything with the ball because neither can shoot or drive past Deandre. This would be a great option to play Meyers if he wasn't hurt but I can't imagine us paying 3 centers who can't play PF minutes a combined 25 million dollars to split minutes.

If we had a bigger power forward that could shoot & rebound that could put up an honest defensive effort against Deandre we could play him at the five in that spot. But we don't have that guy.

We also need a 3 man that's capable of handing the ball and shooting. I cringe every time Aminu dribbles. He's totally out of control. If we had that guy then he could bring the ball up or initiate the offense which doesn't allow them to hard double our guards.

Just imagine how different this game would be if we had a guy like Parsons at the 3 and Leuer at the 4. It becomes a game of pick your poison because you can't sag anymore or double the guards literally every possession.

[Wizenheimer]

We also need a 3 man that's capable of handing the ball and shooting. I cringe every time Aminu dribbles. He's totally out of control. If we had that guy then he could bring the ball up or initiate the offense which doesn't allow them to hard double our guards.

Just imagine how different this game would be if we had a guy like Parsons at the 3

that's what Dallas imagined but he's missed 37 games in two years and wasn't on the floor yesterday for the Mavs. I like him and wouldn't be upset if the Blazers chased him this summer, but he sure has trouble staying healthy

and Leuer at the 4.

I know you like Leuer. I just haven't seen him play enough to have formed an opinion, one way or the other

here's a comparison of the free agent stretch-4's this summer

http://bkref.com/tiny/L91SY

personally, I think Portland has the worst one of the group. Leuer does appear to have the best combination of outside shooting and rebounding strength. Anderson will be too expensive IMO. Marvin Williams is pretty clearly the best of the 5

[Norm2953]

I do think in this series coach Stotts will find a third scorer amongst Aminu, Harkless, Crabbe
and Henderson but its clear moving forward if Aminu is our starting 4, we need a power big
for both Plumlee and Davis are indeed far too limited offensively and Davis is a PF playing
center. Playoff basketball starts at the defensive end for most teams are going to struggle
to score when the opposition can take away another teams first or second option.

[Jsun947]

If we ended up with Batum & Leuer this offseason I would be happy.

Chandler's injury concerns scare me away. Unfortunately from everything I've heard there is almost a 0% chance we look at Batum and Vice versa.

[Downtown]

I know you like Leuer. I just haven't seen him play enough to have formed an opinion, one way or the other

here's a comparison of the free agent stretch-4's this summer

http://bkref.com/tiny/L91SY

personally, I think Portland has the worst one of the group. Leuer does appear to have the best combination of outside shooting and rebounding strength. Anderson will be too expensive IMO. Marvin Williams is pretty clearly the best of the 5

I'm not trying to sway you from your endorsement of Williams but he played like a$$ last night. I've never thought he was much of a player.

[Wizenheimer]

I know you like Leuer. I just haven't seen him play enough to have formed an opinion, one way or the other

here's a comparison of the free agent stretch-4's this summer

http://bkref.com/tiny/L91SY

personally, I think Portland has the worst one of the group. Leuer does appear to have the best combination of outside shooting and rebounding strength. Anderson will be too expensive IMO. Marvin Williams is pretty clearly the best of the 5

I'm not trying to sway you from your endorsement of Williams but he played like a$$ last night. I've never thought he was much of a player.

well, a whole bunch of players played like a$$ in first round games this weekend, including several current Blazers. To be sure, Williams isn't anything more then a role player even as a starter. But that's the case for almost all of those stretch-4's, and the truth is Portland already has a packed roster of role players. But often, those role players, especially when signing for their post rookie-extension contracts, come at bargain prices, and that seems to be what Olshey goes for

personally, I'm hoping the Blazers are aiming much higher in the free agent market this summer. They'll probably miss but it's always worth a shot. Then, if they strike out on high caliber players, they can always aim lower; but when they do that I hope they set limits on how high they'll go in salary, and how long the contracts are. No Meyers/Crabbe at 12 million/year

I hope I'm wrong (and Portland ends showing more in these playoffs then last night), but I suspect when this series is over the Blazer front office will recognize just how much the roster needs to be upgraded to get it to the level of being competitive with the elite teams

If we ended up with Batum & Leuer this offseason I would be happy.

Chandler's injury concerns scare me away. Unfortunately from everything I've heard there is almost a 0% chance we look at Batum and Vice versa.

oh, I know that Portland wouldn't look at Batum, and I'm pretty sure he'd never look at Portland. Those two ships sailed in different directions a year ago, maybe earlier.

I have thought about:

Batum & Robin, What If?

Portland really needs another play-maker in the rotation. CJ & Plumlee just aren't enough, and with CJ filling the backup PG role, some other position needs to contribute offensive initiation. That's something Batum can do. And we have seen that at C the Blazers seem to be a little too light; Plumlee and Davis do OK, but often, they are out-manned in terms of size and strength on the defensive end. Robin Lopez could change that. He's a fairly good rim protector, and he's much bigger and longer then either of Portland's current C's. Portland would still have had the cap-space to keep both Batum and Lopez and still sign Aminu and Davis, if they wanted.

that would have been going a different direction though. And certainly, there's the fact that Portland actually got something for Batum in trade, unlike all the other Blazers lost last season who walked away with Portland getting nothing but space. I like what Henderson gives the Blazers; I think he's better then Crabbe, or at least gives the Blazers a different look, and likely will be cheaper to re-sign. Vonleh? I'm still holding hope for the guy, but I'm less optimistic now then I was 5 months ago. I'm kind of thinking what would TRob have looked like playing in the NBA at 20 years old...maybe like Vonleh, and that's not an optimistic comparison

but once you get past Batum and Parsons, there are slim pickings in terms of ball-handling wings. And I'm guessing that Olshey still wants CJ to perform the dual roles of starting SG and backup PG. In that case, Portland needs a ball-handler/play-maker at wing. Derozan is likely staying in Toronto. Somebody here mentioned Evan Turner and I suppose he's a possibility. He's certainly an effective assist man. Per36 he's averaging 13.5 points, 6 reb, and 6 ast; and he has a decent mid-range game. But overall I'd wonder if he'd be an upgrade to Henderson or Crabbe?

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I'm not sure upgrade is the right word, but on paper Turner would certainly appear to be a better fit with the Blazers back-court. Most of the other playmaking wings have much higher usage than he does.

I was worried earlier this season about Henderson, he looked A LOT like Afflalo did, jacking up mid-range jumpers outside the flow of the offense. I've definitely come around on him though, he is looking engaged and well integrated and I love his physicality. However a 9 million caphold is bit steep in a summer where we need a significant front-court upgrade.

Crabbe I've been worried would get too steep of an offer. His small cap-hold is very nice for planning this summer, but man he just isn't a great long-term fit with Lillard and McCollum in the back-court and could get a huge offer. I also think he is ultimately fairly limited as a player, that what we see is basically what we are going to get with some minor refinements.


At the same price, I think I would lean toward Henderson, but if it means we can use up all our capspace and then go over to pay Crabbe, then that ends up being pretty clearly more bang for your buck.

[Case2012]

Barnes wouldn't have missed all those open 3s last night.

[zzaj]

I'm not sure upgrade is the right word, but on paper Turner would certainly appear to be a better fit with the Blazers back-court. Most of the other playmaking wings have much higher usage than he does.

I was worried earlier this season about Henderson, he looked A LOT like Afflalo did, jacking up mid-range jumpers outside the flow of the offense. I've definitely come around on him though, he is looking engaged and well integrated and I love his physicality. However a 9 million caphold is bit steep in a summer where we need a significant front-court upgrade.

Crabbe I've been worried would get too steep of an offer. His small cap-hold is very nice for planning this summer, but man he just isn't a great long-term fit with Lillard and McCollum in the back-court and could get a huge offer. I also think he is ultimately fairly limited as a player, that what we see is basically what we are going to get with some minor refinements.


At the same price, I think I would lean toward Henderson, but if it means we can use up all our capspace and then go over to pay Crabbe, then that ends up being pretty clearly more bang for your buck.

It'll be really interesting to see this Henderson/Crabbe debate deepen as these playoff games continue and both players get a chance to prove something. Henderson was one of only a couple of Blazers who played well last night. Crabbe, not so much.

I have to imagine that Henderson is looking for a starting role somewhere. I seriously doubt that role is with Portland. Even though I still think CJ's best role is that of "scorer off the bench", I doubt Olshey sees it that way. In other words:

Lillard/CJ
Henderson/CJ

probably isn't going to happen, even though I think that'd be a better situation for Portland long-term.

I've warmed up to the idea of Evan Turner, but I think he's more of a lateral move than a needle mover. For the record, I do think that:

Lillard/CJ
Henderson/CJ
Turner/Harkless
Aminu/Davis/Vonleh
Plumlee/Davis

Would be an upgrade, but it still is a few pieces away from scaring anybody.

For some dumb reason I had VERY high hopes for Vonleh this year. I don't really see any signs of improvement at a time when he should be improving quite a bit--which makes me miss Coach Grgurich. If he could just consistently make a wide open jumper I'd feel a lot better about him long-term. He's been fairly consistent as a rebounder and defender which is a good sign for someone his age, but he looks quite a ways away from contributing anything consistently on the offensive end.

[Epicurus]

The offseason will be very important to Vonleh. He needs to finish much better, shoot better from medium and long distance, and get more assertive in general. I believe it is more likely that he will bring this improvement next season than he will not, except for the assertion part. He seems to have a deferential personality.

[Wizenheimer]

Barnes wouldn't have missed all those open 3s last night.

maybe, but you should know that about 5 weeks ago, over a 10 games stretch, Barnes was 2-23 on three's...8.7%

[Jsun947]

I'd be concerned about Turner's lack of shooting ability especially if hes going to be on the court the same time as Plumlee or Davis.

Getting to the basket is a huge part of CJ & Dame's skill set and when two players who can't shoot are on the court with them it clogs the lane and kills our offense.

If we go with Turner we would need another big that compliments him unless we're keeping Leonard around.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I'm not sure upgrade is the right word, but on paper Turner would certainly appear to be a better fit with the Blazers back-court. Most of the other playmaking wings have much higher usage than he does.

I was worried earlier this season about Henderson, he looked A LOT like Afflalo did, jacking up mid-range jumpers outside the flow of the offense. I've definitely come around on him though, he is looking engaged and well integrated and I love his physicality. However a 9 million caphold is bit steep in a summer where we need a significant front-court upgrade.

Crabbe I've been worried would get too steep of an offer. His small cap-hold is very nice for planning this summer, but man he just isn't a great long-term fit with Lillard and McCollum in the back-court and could get a huge offer. I also think he is ultimately fairly limited as a player, that what we see is basically what we are going to get with some minor refinements.


At the same price, I think I would lean toward Henderson, but if it means we can use up all our capspace and then go over to pay Crabbe, then that ends up being pretty clearly more bang for your buck.

It'll be really interesting to see this Henderson/Crabbe debate deepen as these playoff games continue and both players get a chance to prove something. Henderson was one of only a couple of Blazers who played well last night. Crabbe, not so much.

I have to imagine that Henderson is looking for a starting role somewhere. I seriously doubt that role is with Portland. Even though I still think CJ's best role is that of "scorer off the bench", I doubt Olshey sees it that way. In other words:

Lillard/CJ
Henderson/CJ

probably isn't going to happen, even though I think that'd be a better situation for Portland long-term.

That's what most people had penciled in for our backcourt before it was evident that Gerald would miss the beginning of the season and McCollum made a name for himself. Its kind of interesting to think how things would be different if Gerald was healthy those first couple months.

I've warmed up to the idea of Evan Turner, but I think he's more of a lateral move than a needle mover. For the record, I do think that:

Lillard/CJ
Henderson/CJ
Turner/Harkless
Aminu/Davis/Vonleh
Plumlee/Davis

Would be an upgrade, but it still is a few pieces away from scaring anybody.

Yeah, the front-court there is still a problem. Maybe Turner could take over the 3rd playmaker role and allow Plumlee to be moved, but I'm not sure Plumlee + capspace would net us a significant upgrade. Man, imagine Gobert with that roster..

For some dumb reason I had VERY high hopes for Vonleh this year. I don't really see any signs of improvement at a time when he should be improving quite a bit--which makes me miss Coach Grgurich. If he could just consistently make a wide open jumper I'd feel a lot better about him long-term. He's been fairly consistent as a rebounder and defender which is a good sign for someone his age, but he looks quite a ways away from contributing anything consistently on the offensive end.

Vonleh was too raw and undeveloped this year to have much impact - it seems like Charlotte did nothing with him, he essentially came to us as a rookie. I've liked what I've seen this year, but its obvious Stotts had him on a pretty tight leash even as a starter. Rebound, play defense, get some garbage buckets, take the open shot if you have to. Epicurus is right, he seems to have a little bit of a passive personality, but that just cements my belief that we need to be patient with him. I mean, he is so incredibly young that being thrown into a competitive profession like the NBA can be a shock. In a lot of ways he reminds me of Harkless earlier this year, and I think he'll have a similar blossoming once he gets further into his 20's.

[Downtown]

I'd be concerned about Turner's lack of shooting ability especially if hes going to be on the court the same time as Plumlee or Davis.

Getting to the basket is a huge part of CJ & Dame's skill set and when two players who can't shoot are on the court with them it clogs the lane and kills our offense.

If we go with Turner we would need another big that compliments him unless we're keeping Leonard around.

The thing that I've been impressed with Turner this season in the games I've seen is that despite him obviously not being a star, he is a jack of all trades type on both ends of the floor. He has played two positions and is sound on defence. He usually finds a way to contribute. Like Wiz said I would hope Olshey sets his sights higher, but given that neither Henderson, Crabbe, or Harkless are guaranteed to be re-signed, Turner would be a solid signing if two of the three go elsewhere.

He's not a priority type but instead possible insurance. I actually see him as a small upgrade although not by that much.