Handledatruth wrote:drekwins wrote:Handledatruth wrote:
In 2006-2007 Paul Pierce averaged 25 PPG on 43% FG and 38% from 3. He got a 57% TS from advanced stats in a pretty bad season for the Celtics. This was the year before KG and Ray Allen joined.
In 2013-2014 Carmelo was around the leaders in scoring at 27 PPG while shooting 45% from the field and 40% from 3. His advanced stat gave him a TS of 56%. To add he lead the league in scoring the year before on a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Semi finals but only managed a 57% TS.
Why? because TS rewards players that shoot a higher percentage of threes or layups and dunks. Mid range shooters AND post players do not benefit from this stat even if effective. This is why Kyle Lowry had a superior TS to Kyrie Irving even though we know Kyrie is a superior player.
But back to the points you mentioned. The fact you bring up AI proves what I am trying to say. Allen Iverson is one of the greatest scorers I've ever watched, but his TS was below average his entire career. Funny thing about this discussion is that he never had a high TS above 53 until he played with Melo. In the end, this one stat is not reflective of someone's ability to score. So when you say Carmelo is not a good scorer anymore, you should come with something better than TS. Especially important seeing that a guy like Kobe Bryant averaged a 55% TS throughout his career (maybe the greatest scorer ever).
See, you are absolutely wrong.
TS% is the most important scoring statistic. What made 2012-13 successful was not specifically Melo. What made that team successful was their defense, rebounding and lack of turnovers. The veterans that they added were amazing in terms of IQ. I'm not saying that Melo didn't contribute A LOT. What I am saying is that it was a great TEAM. They literally got more shots than the opponent than 8 out of 10 nights. That's why they were so good.
As far as Kobe, he was also one of the best defensive players and had Shaq. Shaq has one of the most amazing TS%'s of all-time. He was unreal. At the end of the day, the game is about which team puts the ball in the hoop more than the other team. The only factors that matter are the number of shots and TS%. If you get the same number of shots as the opponent and shoot a higher TS%, you win the game. Factors that affect the number of shots are rebounds and turnovers. If you limit them, you essentially guarentee that you'll at least get the same (or more) shots as the opponent. Then, it comes down to TS%. You can win by shooting the hell out of the ball with a high TS% or you can win with a medium TS% as long as you either get more shots than the opponent or play good defense.
Therefore, I like a team that is smart, rebounds the ball and plays defense. This gives you the best chance to win right off the bat. Melo doesn't really help us in any of those areas. In 2012-13, Kidd limited out turnovers, Martin/Sheed/Chandler and Brewer played great defense and Chandler/Sheed/Martin dominated the boards. Not to mention, everyone was hitting their open shots. Lastly, Melo is 33 now and old. He's not reverting back to old Melo ever again. It only will get worse.
I gave you 3 absolutely valid examples of players with lower TS that are great hall of fame level scorers: Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, and Kyrie Irving. Then I gave you an example of a player that had a high TS while not shooting great percentages overall. Then I compared this player's losing season to Carmelo's leading the league in scoring season and highest TS season where he shot better percentages than Pierce in both yet still yielded a lower TS. Basically there was a season where Melo shot better from 3 and shot better from the field than Paul Pierce and yet had a lower TS than one of Pierce's worst seasons as a Celtic. Yet you still tell me that TS is the most important stat when it comes to scoring. Which means this discussion is clouded by your dislike for Melo. To be honest, not liking Melo is fine and you are entitled to your opinion, but if the only stat you are going to cling to is TS, then as a purely basketball argument it's invalid.
Oh and just for fun 2011-2102 Steve Novak had the highest TS among small forwards in the NBA. Most important scoring stat indeed.
Do you understand context? I think not. Listen up, you might learn a thing or two. TS% is the most important offensive statistic for MELO. For most players that have developed other areas to help a team, TS% would not be as big of a factor. But, Melo does not help in other areas above a replacement player. He's not a good defender, he's not a creator, he's not a great leader, etc. Also, when talking about TS%, we are talking about volume shooters.
Now, all of this has to be taken into ADDITIONAL CONTEXT besides what I just stated. Because TS% does not necessarily equal wins. You must account for defense, rebounds and turnovers. A greater defender on a better defensive team is allowed to have a lower TS% because they can hold the other team to lower percentages as well. In other words, they get stops. Also, a good rebounding team with low turnovers will have more shots than their opponent. Therefore, they can get away with a lower TS% (Memphis). Melo does not help in any of those areas enough to justify a low TS%. All he is, is a volume shooter. Therefore, he better do it damn well and efficient. But, he doesn't.
As far as the players you mentioned, it's actually quite easy to explain.
Kobe - During his first 2 championship runs, he had Shaq. Shaq has one of the best TS%'s, controlled the paint and was the most dominant player on the face of the earth. During the second run, Kobe would take the big shots. However, they had a really good overall team. In 08-09, they led the NBA in rebounds, which allowed them to get 2 extra shot attempts than their opponent. Not to mention, Bynum and Pau averaged roughly 35 points per night on 60% TS%. Fast forward to the playoffs and Kobe increased his TS% (something Melo has never done in the playoffs) and Odom, Pau and Ariza combined for 42 points per game on over 62% TS%. In addition to all of this, they were 2nd in assists, 2nd in steals, 4th in FG% and 6th in Opp FG%. Lastly, Kobe was known to be streaky. In their 65 wins, his TS% was much higher than in losses. Therefore, when he was off, he was REALLY off and it affected the data. In the following season, 2009-10, Pau and Bynums rebounding dominance continued. The Lakers were 2nd in rebounds, 5th in Opp FG%, 1st in Opp 3p% and they didn't bail guys out. They finished 2nd in FTA given up. Lastly, Bynum and Pau combined for 33 points on 60% TS%. These reasons are why he was able to win those titles.
Pierce - The reason why Pierce consistently yielded a higher TS% than Melo is because he gets to the FT line. If you get fouled and make both free throws, that is equivalent to a made 2 point shot. That's how TS% accounts for it. So basically, you are not adjusting for FT's in your assessment. Essentially, Melos best TS% year was 57% in 07-08. Pierce averaged at or above that 9 times and essentially met or exceeded that standard every year after the age of 26. During Melos one really great Conference Finals run, he was at 56% in the playoffs. But, keep in mind, his team was 6th in assists, 3rd in steals, 2nd in blocks, 1st in FTAs and 4th in Opp FG% and 5th in forcing turnovers. Also, in the playoffs, Billups played out of his mind with averages of 27pts, 9asts and 5rebs on 66% TS%. Pierce was a much more efficient scorer over their careers.
AI - Iverson only had 1 year of real playoff success. During that year, his team was GREAT defensively. They were 5th in Opp FG%, 4th in rebounds (4 more per game than their opponent), 5th in steals and shot 7 more FT's per game than their opponents. It really was a different era to compare with hand checking. What it really comes down to though is their defense allowed them to succeed.
Kyrie - For 2 out of the past 3 years, Kyrie has shot a TS% of 58% or better. Melo hasn't had 1 season like that. In the playoffs, he hasn't dipped much as he is at 57% every year. Keep in mind, he also plays with the most efficient player possibly ever. That really helps his success in terms on wins
Overall, efficiency and scoring are two totally different things. A good to great TS% from a volume shooter leads to a lot of wins. Points with a mediocre TS% from a volume scorer can lead to wins but they must be great defensively, rebounding and/or with turnovers. If not, they will lose big.
