sidsid wrote:Danny1616 wrote:sidsid wrote:
The bigger problem is the expectations of the transition over from Lowry to Fred. The org has positioned it as some sort passing of the torch, which might apply to giving a good quote, but is nothing of the sort on the court.
There are 2 old hall of fame undersized PGs currently playing in this league who can manage an offense like no other. They understand the game on another level. Meanwhile, former MVP and walking triple double Westbrook has been passed around like a bad contract for years now and is currently killing the Lakers.
If what they did was easy, everyone would be doing it because there is nothing special about them physically outside of Kyle's enormous ass.
Fred is a combo guard who's strengths are mainly off-ball with a coach, and understandable offseason circumstances, forcing him into a bigger role that automatically limits the ceiling of a team on the offensive end.
He's never going to be Lowry. Our team's strengths right now are defense, turnovers and offensive rebounding to compensate for our limited ceiling in other offensive areas. That's baked in. Fred making a few more jump shots or nailing an extra drive and kick pass isn't going to change that fundamental problem. Possessions died in Ibaka's hands while they zipped around in Gasol's. No amount of complaining was going to change their skillsets.
The avenues to change that, in the near term, are also limited. Expecting a full systemic change to take advantage of some faster than expected development from Barnes and OG just doesn't usually happen in the middle of the regular season (if there's a window, it's the all star break, but even then). Courtside mentioned it in another thread, but what you're more likely to see is just adding some different sets to the offense as the season rolls along.
So, what you have to make due with this year is mostly individual improvement.
What you can get mad at, is FVV, the player playing the most minutes in the entire league, playing insane minutes on a back to back against Philly, a team who *checks notes* is missing its 2 best players while our sophomore PG picks up another DNP-CD in what *checks notes again* is supposed to be a development season. You can get mad at that because those things are entirely controllable and not baked in based on other structural limitations.
Your analysis may turn out to be correct, but we have no idea yet.
But at age 27, Fred and Kyle are actually pretty close in terms of production. Kyle didn't come to our team as a finished product, he made improvements every year.
Last year, Fred was 12th in the league in RPM and ahead of Lowry. We always praised Lowry for being an advanced stat guru, but Fred also has great advanced stats now. Like Lowry, Fred doesn't have to be great offensively to impact the game. He's a great on ball defender.
You are assuming that the team is passing the torch for the sake of it, but they wouldn't be passing the torch if they didn't think Fred was the right guy for that role.
It's literally his first month as a full time starting point guard not sharing the backcourt with Lowry. He's averaging 20, 7 and 5 on good shooting splits and great on ball defense. The team is 7-6. Why don't we give him a chance to show what he can over the course of a full season instead of coming to conclusions that he's some sort of finished product without the talent to become that guy.
And here's a prime example of why expectations are out of whack.
Westbrook had analytics that put him right up there with Curry and CP3. His assist numbers are great. At no point in his career has Westbrook ever been a PG who made his teammates better like Lowry can. Westbrook is a freak athlete with talent who got stats through shear force of will.
There isn't a stat for "Ibaka's been hustling on D for a while and hasn't touched the ball yet so I'm gonna feed him to make sure he stays motivated" to show what the greats do.
Fred is a guy who, even in a stretch of his worst basketball ever in the Philly series, still found time to *look off Kawhi* who was demanding the ball so he could go on another Ill advised drive to the hoop.
Lowry's career has been famously riddled with being stuck behind other players and under utilized until he finally broke out as soon as someone gave him usage and a team.
Fred has not had that problem. He's had prime minutes in every conceivable role. Lead of the bench mob offense. First sub off the bench for prime minutes with a championship lineup. Lead of the bench (non-mob offense). Prime starter minutes next to a hall of fame PG, even though it was undersized. Top ten minutes in the league starter. Lead guard playing *the most minutes in the league*.
I can't even conceive of better circumstances for a player to thrive and show you what he could do. If he had it in him, we'd have seen it by now.
He's made strides, but like most players in the league, it's getting better at the role he's most suited for, which for him is still mainly off-ball combo guard. He's got a mid-ranger he can comfortably use now in that role when he's run off the line.
Westbrook is much different from Fred. Westbrook historically has been a high turnover player who gambles like crazy defensively. Fred has been a low turnover player who is an excellent on ball defender and is in the correct position.
Are you seriously going to one playoff series in his 3rd year in the league as a back up PG as your argument? I could pull up Lowry's horrendous 2015 playoff series or even Lillard's horrific 2018 playoff series against the Pelicans if you want to play this game.
