Raptors NBA Draft Thread: Damian Lillard (POR)

[cdel00]

Garm,

You raise a good point what happened in that Cali game was ugly. Weber dug themselves in a huge hole and had 0 success inside so Lillard tried to put the team on his back and started to shoot from deep. He was off that night missing 7 threes.

BUT!

This is what I love about the kid,

The very next game vs a horrible Mayville State Dame showed some NASTINESS and went 8 for 11 in 24 minutes to total 28 points. That's the heart of a champion and the team went on a monster winning streak after being embaressed in Cali.

28 points in 24 mins. - Huge!
28 points on 11 FGA - Huge!
Winning by 50 - Huge!

Did D Lill fall down in Cali? Yes he's human.

But like gramps says its not whether or not you fall but rather how you pick yourself backup that counts!
Gotta love gramps!

And gotta love D Lill!
Epic!

[BillyGM]

D-Waiters or D-Lillard for the Raptors?

[Garmfay]

Its not just one game. Look at his game logs against NCAA tourney teams/good conference teams. He had 1 good game against Saint Mary's ( Dellavedova can't defend) vs.

BYU 4-12 15 Points
Montana 7-19 19 Points
Montana 4-15 21 Points
Loyola Mary (WCC with Gonzaga etc) 6-17 Shooting
Utah State (CIT Champion) 4-16

Shouldn't really matter though, I trust BC. Just like those Kemba nuthuggers that have now disappeared BC will take the right guy.

[DG88]

Its not just one game. Look at his game logs against NCAA tourney teams/good conference teams. He had 1 good game against Saint Mary's ( Dellavedova can't defend) vs.

BYU 4-12 15 Points
Montana 7-19 19 Points
Montana 4-15 21 Points
Loyola Mary (WCC with Gonzaga etc) 6-17 Shooting
Utah State (CIT Champion) 4-16

Shouldn't really matter though, I trust BC. Just like those Kemba nuthuggers that have now disappeared BC will take the right guy.

BYU game yes bad game
21 points vs Montana got to the line 12 times converting 11
He score 29 in the first game against Montana 11-23 shooting 10 rebounds 7 assists
Scoring 19 on Montana yes bad game
Loyola Mary got to the line 14 times making 14
Utah St yes bad game
St Mary's 11-18 shooting 12-15 from the line
3 out of those 7 games he played poorly, not just in terms of shooting but getting rebounds assists and steals. In the other 4 games he contributed by getting to the line rebounding, assisting and stealing.

[OakleyDokely]

D-Waiters or D-Lillard for the Raptors?

I like both, but I'd go Lillard. I see more star potential with him.

[Garmfay]

You are the one saying hes efficient when hes having those poor shooting performances against bigger competition. Bayless got to the line 7.4 FTs per game as a freshman in the Pac 10 including games where he didn't shoot well. Oh wait but hes a chucker with tunnel vision.

[nowayguy]

Does Lillard have T-Rex arms like Bayless? Or does he actually have good length?

[DG88]

You are the one saying hes efficient when hes having those poor shooting performances against bigger competition. Also getting steals doesn't mean you are playing lock down defende. Bayless got to the line 7.4 FTs as a freshman in the Pac 10 including games where he didn't shoot well. Oh wait but hes a chucker with tunnel vision.

So what's your point I never said Bayless was a chucker with tunnel vision you brought that up. Lillard has been efficient with the ball. He had bad shooting nights of course that's gonna happen when you're the only one on your team that can score the ball effectively. Even with those bad shooting nights he still got the FT line and converted. He was still putting pressure on a defense from a bigger school.

[Garmfay]

I think he was like 6'9'' wing span?? Good length

All I'm trying to say is he is more Mo Williams/Bayless then he is Westbrook. We have bigger needs at the wing then drafting Bayless v2 and we are not getting a good wing via FA.

[Garmfay]

You are the one saying hes efficient when hes having those poor shooting performances against bigger competition. Also getting steals doesn't mean you are playing lock down defende. Bayless got to the line 7.4 FTs as a freshman in the Pac 10 including games where he didn't shoot well. Oh wait but hes a chucker with tunnel vision.

So what's your point I never said Bayless was a chucker with tunnel vision you brought that up. Lillard has been efficient with the ball. He had bad shooting nights of course that's gonna happen when you're the only one on your team that can score the ball effectively. Even with those bad shooting nights he still got the FT line and converted. He was still putting pressure on a defense from a bigger school.

And I said Bayless doesn't do that? I don't see the need for Lillard when we have Bayless and Calderon here and it would be stupid to just dump Bayless

[DG88]

You are the one saying hes efficient when hes having those poor shooting performances against bigger competition. Also getting steals doesn't mean you are playing lock down defende. Bayless got to the line 7.4 FTs as a freshman in the Pac 10 including games where he didn't shoot well. Oh wait but hes a chucker with tunnel vision.

So what's your point I never said Bayless was a chucker with tunnel vision you brought that up. Lillard has been efficient with the ball. He had bad shooting nights of course that's gonna happen when you're the only one on your team that can score the ball effectively. Even with those bad shooting nights he still got the FT line and converted. He was still putting pressure on a defense from a bigger school.

And I said Bayless doesn't do that? I don't see the need for Lillard when we have Bayless and Calderon here and it would be stupid to just dump Bayless

That's fine I just don't think Lillard should be out of the question with our pick

[Dr Positivity]

I just get the vibe this guy is a 2 guard at the next level. 6'2 great shooting 2 guard is a decent thing but not as exciting as a big PG

[Edwardo]

And I said Bayless doesn't do that? I don't see the need for Lillard when we have Bayless and Calderon here and it would be stupid to just dump Bayless[/quote]


I wouldn't let the presence of Calderon on this roster at this point in time dictate what we should or shouldn't do at the PG spot. If the Raptors brass feels Lillard is a PG and different from Bayless (a combo guard), then Lillard should be considered for the pick.

[Garmfay]

I just don't see him as the BC type PG. (Cue the mass interest for Kemba last year yet the Raptors had no interest) You know he wants the next Steve Nash type PG (Pass first guy)

[dagger]

I just get the vibe this guy is a 2 guard at the next level. 6'2 great shooting 2 guard is a decent thing but not as exciting as a big PG

Your vibe? Well, that means he's the next Gary Payton for sure!

[TribeZulu]

Assuming we pick around 8th, Lillard should definately be in our consideration set. I think a lot of it will boil down to how he does in workouts compared to other guards.

He's definately my favorite point guard in the draft. He could be the best offensive player in this draft.

[parks3981]

I'm very high on Lillard (check sig- which was made during our nightmare of a season). My only reason for not picking him would be because we could sign Dragic or Nash or trade for Lowry and draft another position. But if that isn't the case I would be thrilled with him- love his skill set. Although I should warn that I think Jeremy Lamb, Lillard, Moe Harkless and Jared Sullinger are better prospects than Beal, Robinson, and Barnes so I'm not really with the general consensus on this draft anyway.

[Double Helix]

I'm projecting Lillard as a scoring PG with a peak PER of betwen 16.0-18.0 which is still pretty great for a late lottery pick. If you're wondering why I'm thinking this read down.

Who do we compare Lillard to in order to better gauge his chances of success? Is he a new Chris Jackson? Is he Tony Parker? Is he the Westbrook that others have pointed to? Is he Mo Williams? When I look at his efficiency numbers, and his ability to get to the net, and his size and look across the league at PGs who do similar things better the guy that jumps out at me is Kyrie Irving. So, how about we imagine Lillard as a poor man's (75% version) of Kyrie Irving? Hear me out here. Irving's much better obviously and showed more at a younger age which is why he went 1st but there are *some* similarities in playing style at least.

Irving was extremely efficient at Duke and those efficiency numbers transferred over nicely to the pros during his rookie season. Observe his duke %s and his Cavs %s here:

FG%
DUKE 52.9%
CAVS 46.9%

3P%
DUKE 46.2%
CAVS 40.0%

FT%
DUKE 90.1%
CAVS 87.2%

So, obviously he saw a dip in %s across the board but his strengths in all 3 of those areas still held up and he's among the NBA league leaders at the guard spot in many of those categories.

Irving's also not an elite assist guy... at least not yet.

APG (PER 40 minutes pace adjusted)
DUKE 5.9 APG
CAVS 7.0 APG

So, his assists actually went up in the NBA.

Irving got to the line a ton in college and has also done so in the NBA.

FTA/G (PER 40 minutes pace adjusted)
DUKE 8.9
CAVS 5.0 (13th of all PGs in the NBA)


I don't need to post Lillard's stats last year but there are *some* similarities. Weber State is not the ACC though and Lillard will be turning 22 in 2 months whereas Irving entered the league at age 19.

So, considering all of these factors, while also considering the guy's work ethic and the fact that he is a bit of a late bloomer, I'm predicting that he might provide roughly 75% of the value that Irving brings playing sort of a similar style.

Irving put up a PER of 21.4 this year as a rookie through efficient shooting, and a solid amount of free throw attempts. He was also handed the reigns. I'm not convinced that Lillard will be handed the reigns as early. Regardless of that, I also don't expect Irving's PER to climb *that* much higher than the 21.4 it's currently at. His usage was very high. He'll get better but how much better? I'm going to put him at Chris Paul's PER range and say that he'll hit around 24.0 during his prime years.

That's obviously freakish and I'm not expecting Lillard to come anywhere close to that. But what if he provides roughly 75% of that playing sort of a similar style? That would theoretically place him closer to a PER range of 16.0-18.0 during his prime years and that's around where Rodney Stuckey currently finds himself in the NBA. The reason why I bring up Stuckey here is because he came out of the same conference and was the first guy in a long time to trailblaze a path from Big Sky dominance to lottery pick status. And like Lillard, Rodney Stuckey lit up that conference and posted back-to-back PERs of 31.0. They play different styles of basketball but these past two season Stuckey has posted PERs of 17.4 and 18.3. So, Big Sky dominance perhaps doesn't translate quite as well to the pros as ACC dominance might. A scoring PG with the potential to post a PER range of 16.0-18.0 during his prime years is still a really solid way to use a late lottery pick but I think there are some others at different positions in this draft who may also post similar values at positions that are harder to find that level of quality. The SG spot in the NBA has gone down hill lately and Kobe, JJ, Manu, Ray Allen, etc are all getting older. That's why I'm leaning more toward Lamb now. I think he stands a better chance at becoming top 10 at his position overall during his peak years. The SG crop has dropped off that much. I also like Bayless and want to see him given another year at the reigns since he's only a couple years older than Lillard anyway.

I really do like Lillard but I think people are being too swayed by the numbers he accomplished in the Big Sky. Re-familiarize yourself with Stuckey's numbers there and what he's currently doing. Realize the amount of quality PGs in the league and the fact that our very own Jerryd Bayless posted a PER of around 17.0 this past season. Let's also not forget that guys like Dragic and Nash are all available. Lillard isn't clearly dominant enough over Lamb to consider him BPA and because it's harder to find a 16-20.0 PER SG in this league these days I'd rather take my chances with Lamb.

[Dr Positivity]

I agree with that post Double Helix (as I do most of yours). I like Lillard, I'm personally predicting a player resembling something between Mo Williams to Mike Bibby. I'm not sold on drafting a Mo to Bibby type 8th. I know that a Mo type career at 8th is actually a success in most drafts, but I feel this is a pretty special draft in terms of potential all-star talents from 8 down. But maybe I'll be wrong and Lillard will be an 18 and 6 guy but one of the best players from 8 down

[Double Helix]

I agree with that post Double Helix (as I do most of yours). I like Lillard, I'm personally predicting a player resembling something between Mo Williams to Mike Bibby. I'm not sold on drafting a Mo to Bibby type 8th. I know that a Mo type career at 8th is actually a success in most drafts, but I feel this is a pretty special draft in terms of potential all-star talents from 8 down. But maybe I'll be wrong and Lillard will be an 18 and 6 guy but one of the best players from 8 down

Thanks, Mufasa.