2013-2014 Wizard's lineup

[hands11]

Whatever Wittman does with the lineups, he really needs to make sure that one of Nene or Gortat is in the game at all times. He can start them both, but he needs to bench one of them early, so that he can come back on the floor with the second unit. It probably makes sense to have Nene be the guy to run with the 2nd unit because Nene is less dependent on good PG play.

He kind of did that last game. But its a balancing act. He also wants to have them playing as much together as he can so Nene isn't playing center.

So its all comes back to Randy will need to expand the bench. Gotta play more Kevin and Ves if he wants Nene and Gortat out there without each other. Trevor A and AH can help with that some, but not like another big can.

[nate33]

Here's how I'd run the rotation once Ariza gets back.

Code: Select all

   First Quarter            Second Quarter
   2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
PG Wall--------------------|Temple------Wall--------
SG Beal--------Ariza-------|Beal--------------------
SF Webster-----------------|Ariza-------Webster-----
PF Nene--------Vesely------|Vesely------Nene--------
C  Gortat------------------|Nene--------Gortat------

That's 36 minutes for each starter, 24 for Vesely and Ariza, and 12 for Temple. That's the basic outline. The lineup has some flexibility though. Booker can sub for Vesely whenever appropriate, or you plug him in for Gortat or Nene if there's early foul trouble. Ariza is available in the last 3 or 4 minutes of each half to sub for either Nene or Gortat if a small ball lineup makes sense. If we need to go small at other times, I'd replace Vesely with Temple (and shift Ariza to PF). I wouldn't use Harrington. Ariza is better at both ends of the floor.

The key to this lineup is that Nene and Beal play when Wall sits. We finish the 1st and 3rd quarters with an offense based on the Wall/Gortat pick-and-roll. We start the 2nd and 4th with an inside-out offense build around Nene in the post and Beal on the perimeter.

The minutes are a little on the high side for everyone, but I figure there would occasionally be garbage time which would bring down those averages a little bit. Also, with Ariza occasionally taking Nene's or Gortat's minutes at the end of halves, Ariza's overall minutes will go up and Gortat's and Nene's will be trimmed a bit. Hopefully, we'd have Wall, Beal and Webster average about 35, Nene and Gortat average 33, Ariza average about 27, and less than 20 for everyone else. Most importantly, Maynor and Seraphin get zero.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I'm on board with that Nate. But I've never seen evidence that Randy has the aptitude for proactive, predictable rotations or alterations that require a feel for the game.

[Hypnotizer]

Well done, nate. Randy is almost there but for some reason he still prefers Maynor instead of Temple. But at least he reduced Eric's minutes.

[hands11]

Wait. One board with Nate ? lol

I have been pitching these concepts and getting objections and now Randy does it and your on board with Nate ?

The rotation Nate posted was pretty much what Randy did last night against NY, only with Trevor A returned he has him coming in early for Beal and then staying for Maynor's clip.

Anyway. I posted this in another thread this morning. Guess it goes here...

More small 2 min break would help. He has to do that through the first three quarters with all the starters and he needs to stagger them. Specially without Trevor A playing.

Every break he needs to rotate.

Beal out, Temple in.
Next break Beal back in Wall out
Next break, Web and Nene out, Wall returns and Ves in
etc. etc.

Wall---Wall-----Temp----Wall---Wall----Wall ( might squeeze in Maynor here to end the first )
Beal---Temp---Beal----- Beal---Beal---- Beal
Web-- Web---- Web-----Temp--Web--- Web ( Trevor A would be for Temp and the 2 extra Web slots )
Nene--Nene--- Nene----Ves----Ves------Ves
Gort-- Gort---- Gort-----Gort---Kevin---Nene

Thats how you use the kind of bench player the Wizards have. You use them to keep your starter out there, not replace them.

Point is, it can be done where you use these utility defensive player and don't expose the entire line up by putting to many of them together. There are lots of ways to do this. Its not the bench. Its how they have been using it.

[Hypnotizer]

Please, no more Kevin. And I put Ariza as a starter when he's healthy again.

[mhd]

When Ariza gets back, just play Webster 20 min at SF and 12 min at backup SG (32 min) and Ariza at 28 min at SF, and any leftover minutes as a small ball PF.

[hands11]

I'm on board with that Nate. But I've never seen evidence that Randy has the aptitude for proactive, predictable rotations or alterations that require a feel for the game.

That has been the problem. But it looks like he is finally figuring out how to do it.

What worries me is what he does once Trevor A returns. How long will it take for him to figure that out?

http://popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/gamef ... ame=NYKWAS

He finally went with the Nene out earlier in the first to return for the 2nd option using Ves to relieve him.

He worked in little breaks for Beal instead of playing him entire quarters by weaving in Temple.

He still found himself with Maynor, Temple and Ves out there together twice but it was with Beal and Nene, so they could rest Webster, Gortat and Wall without totally sucking. Those 3 carried the load playing all the first and the third.

The group to start the 2nd was much better. Wall, Temple, Webster, Ves, Nene.
Then when he rotated away it was Maynor, Beal, Temple, Ves, Nene. Not terrible. It will be better with Trev

He always had Nene or Gortat out there and one of Beal or Webster. A big and a shooter. Very smart.
He never turned to a suck ass group of utility role players which always killed them when paired together.

He did a much better job. Well done Randy. And no one played more then 40 mins. And they looked like they had more life in their legs down the stretch on a back to back.

He finally cracked the code. They should be able to beat LA doing the same.

[hands11]

Please, no more Kevin. And I put Ariza as a starter when he's healthy again.

LOL.

Its was just a concept partly based on what I thought Randy might do if he was to change it up like this. I was looking to rest Nene a little more. It was only a very short stint and it wasn't my first choice to pencil him in.

Wall, Beal and Web were out there as protection. I figured they could just not pass him the ball. Maybe he would give up a foul or two and grab a few rebounds.

You probably never thought you would read this but Kevin could learn a lot from Ves in the way he approaches the game. Go have an impact on the game without shooting it and pounding the rock. They are trying to win games. Now is not the time to develop your inner Nene game. Go grab some rebounds. Play D. Let the PG feed you for easy fishes toward the basket.

But if you grab an offensive board, pass it out unless its an obvious put back dunk.

Now if Randy put him out there with better players, maybe he can learn to do that and not get his ass traded.

[dckingsfan]

At least once Ariza returns there might be a possibility that one of Maynor, Temple and Vesley won't see the floor.

[hands11]

When Ariza gets back, just play Webster 20 min at SF and 12 min at backup SG (32 min) and Ariza at 28 min at SF, and any leftover minutes as a small ball PF.

I wouldn't take Temple completely out of the rotation. I think he need to get a steady diet of at least 7 mins a game so he can stay tuned up. He is a good piece to use when you need perimeter defense and he can actually shoot ok if he stays in rhythm and confident.

If you are starting Beal and going to pull him in the first, I would still use Temple to replace him. Trevor A just lets you pull Webster in the first as well.

With this new staggered concept in Randys head, it should be interesting to see what he decides once he has Trevor A back. Defiantly needs to play some small ball with TA or Webster at the PF. That will help Nene get more rest.

His rotations last game really were nice. The one long quarter Nene played was the 2nd so he had half time to rest. Then he got more rest by only playing 1/2 the third quarter. He started the 4th. Another break and then down to the home stretch.

The more I am digesting what Randy did, the more I think he finally gets it. Only thing that pisses me off is that it took him this long. They could have won a few more games.

[mhd]

When Ariza gets back, just play Webster 20 min at SF and 12 min at backup SG (32 min) and Ariza at 28 min at SF, and any leftover minutes as a small ball PF.

I wouldn't take Temple completely out of the rotation. I think he need to get a steady diet of at least 7 mins a game so he can stay tuned up. He is a good piece to use when you need perimeter defense and he can actually shoot ok if he stays in rhythm and confident.

If you are starting Beal and going to pull him in the first, I would still use Temple to replace him. Trevor A just lets you pull Webster in the first as well.

With this new staggered concept in Randys head, it should be interesting to see what he decides once he has Trevor A back. Defiantly needs to play some small ball with TA or Webster at the PF. That will help Nene get more rest.

His rotations last game really were nice. The one long quarter Nene played was the 2nd so he had half time to rest. Then he got more rest by only playing 1/2 the third quarter. He started the 4th. Another break and then down to the home stretch.

The more I am digesting what Randy did, the more I think he finally gets it. Only thing that pisses me off is that it took him this long. They could have won a few more games.

Temple is the clear cut backup PG. Maynor never sees the floor.

[nate33]

Looks like Wittman intends to start Ariza when he gets back.

I would prefer to see Webster continue to start, but I don't think it's a huge deal either way.

[Severn Hoos]

Looks like Wittman intends to start Ariza when he gets back.

I would prefer to see Webster continue to start, but I don't think it's a huge deal either way.

I think it's a moderately big deal, and hope that starting Ariza means they are actively shopping him. Webster is just so much netter with the starters than he is off the bench, and in particular has to play with Wall to be effective. In fact, I'd go as far as to say Webster really needs Wall and Beal on the floor (to have another 3-point threat) for him to get those open looks that he's so good at knocking down.

Even if you are convinced that Ariza as a starter is a clear upgrade from Webster as a starter (I can see the argument based on Ariza's defense), the difference is much less than Ariza as a backup (solid) vs. Webster as a backup (mediocre).

So to maximize the effectiveness of the team as a whole, I really hope they keep starting Webster. Since this is the Wizards, they will do just the opposite.

[nate33]

Looks like Wittman intends to start Ariza when he gets back.

I would prefer to see Webster continue to start, but I don't think it's a huge deal either way.

I think it's a moderately big deal, and hope that starting Ariza means they are actively shopping him. Webster is just so much netter with the starters than he is off the bench, and in particular has to play with Wall to be effective. In fact, I'd go as far as to say Webster really needs Wall and Beal on the floor (to have another 3-point threat) for him to get those open looks that he's so good at knocking down.

Even if you are convinced that Ariza as a starter is a clear upgrade from Webster as a starter (I can see the argument based on Ariza's defense), the difference is much less than Ariza as a backup (solid) vs. Webster as a backup (mediocre).

So to maximize the effectiveness of the team as a whole, I really hope they keep starting Webster. Since this is the Wizards, they will do just the opposite.

The splits from last year suggest that Webster does equally well with or without Wall, whereas Ariza is MUCH better alongside Wall. That said, I'm not so sure that's the case this year. I don't know if it's the suckitude of Maynor or what, but my gut tells me your analysis is right and that Webster needs Wall more than Ariza does.

I'm open minded about it though. I think the real problem early this year is that Wittman would play the entire 2nd unit without any starters in the mix. He's not doing that anymore. Hopefully, if Nene stays on the floor with the 2nd unit, Webster will fare better.

[Severn Hoos]

Looks like Wittman intends to start Ariza when he gets back.

I would prefer to see Webster continue to start, but I don't think it's a huge deal either way.

I think it's a moderately big deal, and hope that starting Ariza means they are actively shopping him. Webster is just so much netter with the starters than he is off the bench, and in particular has to play with Wall to be effective. In fact, I'd go as far as to say Webster really needs Wall and Beal on the floor (to have another 3-point threat) for him to get those open looks that he's so good at knocking down.

Even if you are convinced that Ariza as a starter is a clear upgrade from Webster as a starter (I can see the argument based on Ariza's defense), the difference is much less than Ariza as a backup (solid) vs. Webster as a backup (mediocre).

So to maximize the effectiveness of the team as a whole, I really hope they keep starting Webster. Since this is the Wizards, they will do just the opposite.

The splits from last year suggest that Webster does equally well with or without Wall, whereas Ariza is MUCH better alongside Wall. That said, I'm not so sure that's the case this year. I don't know if it's the suckitude of Maynor or what, but my gut tells me your analysis is right and that Webster needs Wall more than Ariza does.

I'm open minded about it though. I think the real problem early this year is that Wittman would play the entire 2nd unit without any starters in the mix. He's not doing that anymore. Hopefully, if Nene stays on the floor with the 2nd unit, Webster will fare better.

Interesting - I didn't realize last year's splits showed Webster unaffected and Ariza dependent upon Wall, I would have assumed the opposite. But like you, my gut still tells me Webster looks much better with the starters, and had looked kind of lost at the beginning of the season when Ariza was starting. Of course, Webster was forced to share the court with Maynor, Seraphin, Vesely, so it's understandable that he didn't look comfortable.

I really wish we had a competent backup SG who can shoot. He could even be a no-defense guy like early JJ Redick, just need someone who can keep defenses honest.

Oh, and we need to draft Aaron Craft with our 2nd rounder. Absolute must. Would love to see him as Wall's backup - not great shooting from the position, but a terror for other PGs.

[dobrojim]

Love Craft too. I thought he was a senior last year. He's definitely a guy I would
take a chance on. He really knows how to play D. I don't recall him being a particularly
bad shooter though.

[Ruzious]

I think it's a moderately big deal, and hope that starting Ariza means they are actively shopping him. Webster is just so much netter with the starters than he is off the bench, and in particular has to play with Wall to be effective. In fact, I'd go as far as to say Webster really needs Wall and Beal on the floor (to have another 3-point threat) for him to get those open looks that he's so good at knocking down.

Even if you are convinced that Ariza as a starter is a clear upgrade from Webster as a starter (I can see the argument based on Ariza's defense), the difference is much less than Ariza as a backup (solid) vs. Webster as a backup (mediocre).

So to maximize the effectiveness of the team as a whole, I really hope they keep starting Webster. Since this is the Wizards, they will do just the opposite.

The splits from last year suggest that Webster does equally well with or without Wall, whereas Ariza is MUCH better alongside Wall. That said, I'm not so sure that's the case this year. I don't know if it's the suckitude of Maynor or what, but my gut tells me your analysis is right and that Webster needs Wall more than Ariza does.

I'm open minded about it though. I think the real problem early this year is that Wittman would play the entire 2nd unit without any starters in the mix. He's not doing that anymore. Hopefully, if Nene stays on the floor with the 2nd unit, Webster will fare better.

Interesting - I didn't realize last year's splits showed Webster unaffected and Ariza dependent upon Wall, I would have assumed the opposite. But like you, my gut still tells me Webster looks much better with the starters, and had looked kind of lost at the beginning of the season when Ariza was starting. Of course, Webster was forced to share the court with Maynor, Seraphin, Vesely, so it's understandable that he didn't look comfortable.

I really wish we had a competent backup SG who can shoot. He could even be a no-defense guy like early JJ Redick, just need someone who can keep defenses honest.

Oh, and we need to draft Aaron Craft with our 2nd rounder. Absolute must. Would love to see him as Wall's backup - not great shooting from the position, but a terror for other PGs.

Good call on Craft. He's not a good shooter, but neither was Steve Blake when he was at MD - but Blake worked on it and worked on it and... now he's rich with a ridiculously hot wife. So there's a moral to that story.

[Nivek]

Sample sizes are still small, but here's the relevant data from this season on the topic being discussed -- Webster and Ariza with and without Wall:

Code: Select all

WEBSTER Ortg    Usg
w/Wall  137     14.0
wo/Wall 124     16.1
               
ARIZA   Ortg    Usg
w/Wall  113     20.3
wo/Wall 55      13.7


Like last season, the data suggest that Ariza is far more Wall-dependent than Webster.

As for Craft -- YODA LOVED him whenever it was I ran him through the system. I suspect he'll be an absolute bargain in the 2nd round. Which, of course, means Grunfeld will trade the pick for a SF who leaps well and shoots a lot.

[Severn Hoos]

As usual, Kev manages to educate and dishearten, all in one post....