The 2022 NBA Draft Thread

[VFX]

My ideal would be to package our top 3 pick with some significant pieces (CHI/DEN picks, TPE, Harris...?) for a young star like Jaylen Brown or SGA and, somehow come away with Patrick Baldwin (or whoever emerges by then) in a trade down.

I haven't really followed NCAA this year...is Baldwin a Ryan Anderson-type or more complete offensively? I love a shooter.

For me this is the only possible positive that can come from this dumpster-fire of a season. Orlando does not need a top-player in what looks to be a weak draft up-top. Finding a team that is trying to retool is a great idea. And the Brown idea in particular makes a great deal of sense. I do not think that TPE and a high first and the CHI/DEN picks is enough for Brown. Orlando might need to add Okeke. And absorb more salary.

So: Al Horford and Jaylen Brown in two linked trades for TPE, the Denver pick and Harris, and then Brown for the Magic 2022 FRP, the Chi pick, and Okeke. Frankly that trade makes a lot of sense to me for both teams.

I guess Boston might get more for Horford outright, rather than trying to free up FA funds.


..

I'm with you, I would trade this pick. If Holmgren and Banchero are the top 2 prospects, no thanks.

I’m not super high on Paolo anyway. He’s more of a PF. Even if he’s anywhere close to say Randle, or John Collins, is that player worth the #1-2 pick in a somewhat deep draft?

I’d say no and I don’t see him going lower than 2-3.

There are more outcomes with Chet. Landing somewhere that will allow him to play with a few real bigs would benefit him. Is he really a Durant kind of outcome, or is he a guy that will get bullied in the paint for years?

[Bensational]

There are more outcomes with Chet. Landing somewhere that will allow him to play with a few real bigs would benefit him. Is he really a Durant kind of outcome, or is he a guy that will get bullied in the paint for years?

He has a skill base that looks to translate well as ball-handling/skilled bigs are adapting quickly to the new era. He has the versatility to make life a lot easier for his teammates on offense and defense.

I see him more as Dirk with more of a C’s mindset, wanting to get into the paint more. He’s likely to have much more impact than Dirk on defense, so if he comes close to matching him on offense then that’s a franchise player for sure.

[Petre1978]

So far I am most intrigued by Smith, Ivey, Mathurin, K.Brown.

[Xatticus]

There are more outcomes with Chet. Landing somewhere that will allow him to play with a few real bigs would benefit him. Is he really a Durant kind of outcome, or is he a guy that will get bullied in the paint for years?

He has a skill base that looks to translate well as ball-handling/skilled bigs are adapting quickly to the new era. He has the versatility to make life a lot easier for his teammates on offense and defense.

I see him more as Dirk with more of a C’s mindset, wanting to get into the paint more. He’s likely to have much more impact than Dirk on defense, so if he comes close to matching him on offense then that’s a franchise player for sure.

I don't know that Holmgren will ever score a lot of points. He is definitely skilled, but he is living off of cheap stuff at the rim and a lot of that won't translate to the NBA, at least not with the degree of success he is enjoying right now. He sees the floor really well and he is unselfish though. He will be a good offensive player, especially if the shot comes along.

His potential at the defensive end is sky high. I think we are seeing how valuable a player like Holmgren can be this year with Mobley in Cleveland.

I have a feeling that Banchero will be the number one guy for most of the year, but I'm sure some teams will have other guys higher. Banchero is who you take if you want the guy that has the best chance to give you a fat stat line in the long run. He is the guy with the highest probability of averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds a game. I just don't think that makes him the best player in this draft. He hasn't really shown me anything but the ability to go get his. That's not really my kind of player, but as far as such players go, he is a pretty good one. If I called him Carmelo, half the board would soil themselves in excitement, but if I called him Beasley... ? And before people scoff, Beasley averaged 26 and 12 in his one year at KSU.

I really don't mean to sound too harsh about Banchero. He isn't a finished product and he could continue to develop in any number of ways, but Holmgren is just a more attractive prospect to me. He could be a really efficient scorer, a good ball mover, and a defensive anchor on a really good team.

[Xatticus]

I'd love to take a crack at developing Nzosa if you could snag him with a late pick. He is super raw, doesn't have much feel for the game, and will probably never be an NBA player, but he has absurd mobility for a guy with his size. That puts him on a short list with guys like Jonathan Isaac and Giannis.

Watch on YouTube

He only just turned 18, so who knows what may come.

[basketballRob]

You know Weham goes for the high BPM players. Right now Chet is at 15.1, Brown 12.7, Smith 12.6, Ivey 11.5, Banchero 7.0.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[Petre1978]

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Number 1 pick!!!

My top 5:

1. Jabari Smith Jr
2. Jaden Ivey
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Kendall Brown
5. Paolo Banchero



Ivey has the ability to be a secondary ball handler as well as a consistent on-ball creator paired with good off-ball ability – that's an excellent profile in today's league.
Plenty of elite combo guards / non-PG guards in today's league that would be the top 3 in their respective drafts in a re-draft.

One thing to also note is that Ivey really doesn't have a lot of driving lanes because there's a big standing right around the basket or in the lane at almost all times.
In a spaced out NBA, his ability to attack should pop out a lot more and is crazy to imagine.

IMO he's a better NBA prospect than Chet and Paolo

Watch on YouTube

Brown should be a top 5 pick, imo.
The best is yet to come.
We've just seen the beginning of his play-making for teammates and 3 point shooting.

It looks like he has a second level of leaping when he needs it - not sure I've seen that since David Thompson, and he's at least 4 inches taller than Thompson.
I mean... he's made 74% of his 2's - no non-bigs do that... none except him.
And he's an all-around player.

Kendall Brown is the Scottie Barnes of this draft class.
He has the vision, passing, and natural feel for the game... he's being used in an off ball role, so many of his skills are being hidden.

Kid is going to fill in thr stat sheets at the next level. He should go top 5.

Watch on YouTube

[Knightro]

You know Weham goes for the high BPM players. Right now Chet is at 15.1, Brown 12.7, Smith 12.6, Ivey 11.5, Banchero 7.0.

Oooh this is fun. Let's put this theory to the test. So far Weltman and Hammond have made 6 first round picks with the Magic. Five of them have had BPM's over 10.0, so that checks out.

But were they the highest BPM players the Magic could have taken?

2017
The pick: Jonathan Isaac 10.0 BPM
Who they passed on: Markkanen 9.4, Ntilikina N/A, Smith Jr. 6.5, Collins 10.6, Monk 9.0
Verdict: Isaac was the best pick they could have realistically made here. Guys drafted in the back half of the lottery like Mitchell and Adebayo have blown up in the pros, but were never seriously in consideration to be top 6 picks for anyone.

2018
The pick: Mo Bamba 10.9 BPM
Who they passed on: Carter Jr. 11.4, Sexton 6.9, Knox 5.1, Bridges 12.9 (junior), Gilgeous-Alexander 9.0
Verdict: In retrospect, Carter would have been a better pick than Bamba. He was more productive in college and a full year younger to boot. The case could be made that the Bridges would have been a better pick as well knowing that the Magic had already hired Steve Clifford and were shifting to a win-now mindset.

2019
The pick: Chuma Okeke 11.1 BPM
Who they passed on: Alexander-Walker 8.9, Bitadze N/A, Šamanić N/A, Thybulle 11.6 (senior), Clarke 16.3 (junior), Williams 12.7 (junior)
Verdict: Factoring in Okeke's injury, I don't see how the case could be made he was the best pick considering other super productive and healthy upperclassmen were all available. But Okeke was still an analytics darling.

2020
The pick: Cole Anthony 5.1 BPM
Who they passed on: Stewart 7.4, Pokusevski N/A, Green 6.9, Bey 8.1, Achiuwa 5.8, Maxey 4.4
Verdict: This is the one where the theory gets off the rails a little bit. Anthony had a truly terrible statistical profile from his one season of college. So bad that he breaks all the trends for a Magic draft selection. That said... only two players drafted after Anthony had double digit BPM's and they were both much older upperclassmen - Pritchard and Flynn.

2021
The picks: Jalen Suggs 9.4 BPM and Franz Wagner 11.9 BPM
Who they passed on: Giddey N/A, Kuminga N/A, Mitchell 10.1 (senior), Z. Williams 0.3, Bouknight 8.6,
Verdict: Don't think either pick can be argued at this point. Suggs was a better prospect than Giddey and Kuminga at 5. Wagner was a better prospect than everyone picked behind him except maybe Sengun.

[zaymon]

Spoiler:

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Number 1 pick!!!

My top 5:

1. Jabari Smith Jr
2. Jaden Ivey
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Kendall Brown
5. Paolo Banchero



Ivey has the ability to be a secondary ball handler as well as a consistent on-ball creator paired with good off-ball ability – that's an excellent profile in today's league.
Plenty of elite combo guards / non-PG guards in today's league that would be the top 3 in their respective drafts in a re-draft.

One thing to also note is that Ivey really doesn't have a lot of driving lanes because there's a big standing right around the basket or in the lane at almost all times.
In a spaced out NBA, his ability to attack should pop out a lot more and is crazy to imagine.

IMO he's a better NBA prospect than Chet and Paolo

Watch on YouTube

Brown should be a top 5 pick, imo.
The best is yet to come.
We've just seen the beginning of his play-making for teammates and 3 point shooting.

It looks like he has a second level of leaping when he needs it - not sure I've seen that since David Thompson, and he's at least 4 inches taller than Thompson.
I mean... he's made 74% of his 2's - no non-bigs do that... none except him.
And he's an all-around player.

Kendall Brown is the Scottie Barnes of this draft class.
He has the vision, passing, and natural feel for the game... he's being used in an off ball role, so many of his skills are being hidden.

Kid is going to fill in thr stat sheets at the next level. He should go top 5.

Watch on YouTube

Jabari is good, but without handle he is more Lauri Markkanen than Kevin Durant. I like him a lot but propably prefer Holmgren.
Ivey is small combo guard with questionable jumper. Kind of player that busts a lot or puts up counting stats but actually doesnt make you much better. I would consider him only if he is elite defender.
Brown is interesting but needs to show himself in bigger role.
For sleeper picks i like Trevor Keels. Good athlete, good frame, smart and skilled.

[Petre1978]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Watch on YouTube

Number 1 pick!!!

My top 5:

1. Jabari Smith Jr
2. Jaden Ivey
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Kendall Brown
5. Paolo Banchero



Ivey has the ability to be a secondary ball handler as well as a consistent on-ball creator paired with good off-ball ability – that's an excellent profile in today's league.
Plenty of elite combo guards / non-PG guards in today's league that would be the top 3 in their respective drafts in a re-draft.

One thing to also note is that Ivey really doesn't have a lot of driving lanes because there's a big standing right around the basket or in the lane at almost all times.
In a spaced out NBA, his ability to attack should pop out a lot more and is crazy to imagine.

IMO he's a better NBA prospect than Chet and Paolo

Watch on YouTube

Brown should be a top 5 pick, imo.
The best is yet to come.
We've just seen the beginning of his play-making for teammates and 3 point shooting.

It looks like he has a second level of leaping when he needs it - not sure I've seen that since David Thompson, and he's at least 4 inches taller than Thompson.
I mean... he's made 74% of his 2's - no non-bigs do that... none except him.
And he's an all-around player.

Kendall Brown is the Scottie Barnes of this draft class.
He has the vision, passing, and natural feel for the game... he's being used in an off ball role, so many of his skills are being hidden.

Kid is going to fill in thr stat sheets at the next level. He should go top 5.

Watch on YouTube

Jabari is good, but without handle he is more Lauri Markkanen than Kevin Durant. I like him a lot but propably prefer Holmgren.
Ivey is small combo guard with questionable jumper. Kind of player that busts a lot or puts up counting stats but actually doesnt make you much better. I would consider him only if he is elite defender.
Brown is interesting but needs to show himself in bigger role.
For sleeper picks i like Trevor Keels. Good athlete, good frame, smart and skilled.

So Chet is your pick?

[zaymon]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Watch on YouTube

Number 1 pick!!!

My top 5:

1. Jabari Smith Jr
2. Jaden Ivey
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Kendall Brown
5. Paolo Banchero



Ivey has the ability to be a secondary ball handler as well as a consistent on-ball creator paired with good off-ball ability – that's an excellent profile in today's league.
Plenty of elite combo guards / non-PG guards in today's league that would be the top 3 in their respective drafts in a re-draft.

One thing to also note is that Ivey really doesn't have a lot of driving lanes because there's a big standing right around the basket or in the lane at almost all times.
In a spaced out NBA, his ability to attack should pop out a lot more and is crazy to imagine.

IMO he's a better NBA prospect than Chet and Paolo

Watch on YouTube

Brown should be a top 5 pick, imo.
The best is yet to come.
We've just seen the beginning of his play-making for teammates and 3 point shooting.

It looks like he has a second level of leaping when he needs it - not sure I've seen that since David Thompson, and he's at least 4 inches taller than Thompson.
I mean... he's made 74% of his 2's - no non-bigs do that... none except him.
And he's an all-around player.

Kendall Brown is the Scottie Barnes of this draft class.
He has the vision, passing, and natural feel for the game... he's being used in an off ball role, so many of his skills are being hidden.

Kid is going to fill in thr stat sheets at the next level. He should go top 5.

Watch on YouTube

Jabari is good, but without handle he is more Lauri Markkanen than Kevin Durant. I like him a lot but propably prefer Holmgren.
Ivey is small combo guard with questionable jumper. Kind of player that busts a lot or puts up counting stats but actually doesnt make you much better. I would consider him only if he is elite defender.
Brown is interesting but needs to show himself in bigger role.
For sleeper picks i like Trevor Keels. Good athlete, good frame, smart and skilled.

So Chet is your pick?

Yes, for now. I worry about his frame a lot, but big mobile rim protecting forwards next to stronger centers look like future of succesful teams. We need emergency plan for Isaac. I need to do more research about Holmgren foot speed becouse if he cant guard perimeter i am not so much interested. I have Jabari second so its not that i am low on him.

[Skin]

You know Weham goes for the high BPM players. Right now Chet is at 15.1, Brown 12.7, Smith 12.6, Ivey 11.5, Banchero 7.0.

Oooh this is fun. Let's put this theory to the test. So far Weltman and Hammond have made 6 first round picks with the Magic. Five of them have had BPM's over 10.0, so that checks out.

But were they the highest BPM players the Magic could have taken?

2017
The pick: Jonathan Isaac 10.0 BPM
Who they passed on: Markkanen 9.4, Ntilikina N/A, Smith Jr. 6.5, Collins 10.6, Monk 9.0
Verdict: Isaac was the best pick they could have realistically made here. Guys drafted in the back half of the lottery like Mitchell and Adebayo have blown up in the pros, but were never seriously in consideration to be top 6 picks for anyone.

2018
The pick: Mo Bamba 10.9 BPM
Who they passed on: Carter Jr. 11.4, Sexton 6.9, Knox 5.1, Bridges 12.9 (junior), Gilgeous-Alexander 9.0
Verdict: In retrospect, Carter would have been a better pick than Bamba. He was more productive in college and a full year younger to boot. The case could be made that the Bridges would have been a better pick as well knowing that the Magic had already hired Steve Clifford and were shifting to a win-now mindset.

2019
The pick: Chuma Okeke 11.1 BPM
Who they passed on: Alexander-Walker 8.9, Bitadze N/A, Šamanić N/A, Thybulle 11.6 (senior), Clarke 16.3 (junior), Williams 12.7 (junior)
Verdict: Factoring in Okeke's injury, I don't see how the case could be made he was the best pick considering other super productive and healthy upperclassmen were all available. But Okeke was still an analytics darling.

2020
The pick: Cole Anthony 5.1 BPM
Who they passed on: Stewart 7.4, Pokusevski N/A, Green 6.9, Bey 8.1, Achiuwa 5.8, Maxey 4.4
Verdict: This is the one where the theory gets off the rails a little bit. Anthony had a truly terrible statistical profile from his one season of college. So bad that he breaks all the trends for a Magic draft selection. That said... only two players drafted after Anthony had double digit BPM's and they were both much older upperclassmen - Pritchard and Flynn.

2021
The picks: Jalen Suggs 9.4 BPM and Franz Wagner 11.9 BPM
Who they passed on: Giddey N/A, Kuminga N/A, Mitchell 10.1 (senior), Z. Williams 0.3, Bouknight 8.6,
Verdict: Don't think either pick can be argued at this point. Suggs was a better prospect than Giddey and Kuminga at 5. Wagner was a better prospect than everyone picked behind him except maybe Sengun.

Another interesting evaluation study... Is BPM even a worthy gauge for draft analysis in predicting future success?

[Knightro]

Another interesting evaluation study... Is BPM even a worthy gauge for draft analysis in predicting future success?

I can do some research on this, but my guess is that it's probably more accurate on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Like a high college BPM wouldn't necessarily be a predictor for significant NBA success, but a low college BPM is generally a more consistent predictor of a lack of NBA success.

[basketballRob]

I think high BPM players usually have good steal and block stats. I've heard scouts look at that because it shows they have quick reflexes. Plus a high FT percentage shows the ability to shoot.

Banchero does those things okay so I may be selling him short. Chet is off the charts with his BPM. It might be the highest since Anthony Davis was at 17.2. That's why I think Chet ends up #1 overall.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[Knightro]

It's still early, but I'd probably have Banchero 5th or 6th right now. I don't hate him, but he hasn't shown a lot of the things I like to see out of a top prospect in terms of defense, creation for others or hustle.

Right now he's pretty much all offense for himself, which is fine in college, but if you are going to be an all offense/all scoring type of player, you have to be really elite at it to break even even in the NBA with those other deficiencies. And right now he hasn't shown elite scoring potential.

It was one of my main arguments against Bouknight last year too. It didn't appear that offered up a whole lot as a defender or passer, and his statistical profile wasn't that of an elite scorer either.

So what are you left with?

[DSN1423]

I have the opinion that, to maximize our roster and other players on our roster that we need to draft the player at whatever spot we select at (barring anyone falling into our lap at say the 5 or 6 spot like Chet) with the most scoring chops or scoring potential. Or trade it to get a proven scorer.

We need athletes who can be a focal offensive piece, I feel that others (Suggs, Chuma, Franz, MO, WC, RJ) will benefit from that, basically all our team is, is role players, who are trying to create their own offense to very subpar results. We need someone who can get scores and create for themselves, which ultimately will help create for others as defenses adjust.

We aren't going to get too many more cracks, maybe outside of '23, to draft in the top 6 again. We need to swing for a scorer here not another glue/team player. We have a lot of nice pieces but as stated to death on this board we need an alpha. We have 2 first rounders in '23 to get glue/team players or players with high ceilings but need work.

Don't let these opportunities slip and then we have to overpay massively in a trade to secure a number 1 scoring option.

We have had how many drafts in the last 12 years, for high upside picks, swing big I say, if we whiff, we have 2 more 1st rounders next year.

[pepe1991]

Banchero strikes me like Porter Jr / Beasley type of guy.
College players are not equipped to defend him because most of college rosters are split between:
a) sub 6'4 guards who can't contest his shooting because they lack size
b) sub 6'8 "bigs" because most of college "bigs " are SFs in nba and hardly any team has solid PF- C duo with real size.

So you have those rare +6'9 guys who can ballhandle a bit and shoot a bit and nobody really can stop them.
Hell, Derrick Williams abused college hoops using fact guards were to weak, bigs were too slow to stop him . In nba nothing about his "rare"skills translated.

[Bensational]

Watch on YouTube

I think Jabari might have moved into #1 for me already. We’ve seen him light it up on offense already, but his defense looks fantastic. These weak side blocks and defensive plays on the perimeter just make me salivate. My comp for him at the moment is Franz + WCJ combined. If you added him to those two… [insert mindblown gif].

His mid-range pull-up just looks wet, too. That’s a playoff shot, and he looks natural at it. He will help make a team a lot better very quickly.

[PrimeThyme]

Smith has a beautiful release. I'd have him firmly at 3 on my board. Looks like a Weltman guy. Size/length combined with above-average defensive instincts. Would not be shocked if he's sitting at 1 or 2 on theirs.

[Skin]

Jabari Smith is our Savior.

"Play sorry for Jabari!!!"