**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

[DayofMourning]

Spoiler:

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Consider me intrigued

A little more on a Euro guard prospect that I have a hunch might just have lotto talent:

Sergio de Larrea is 19 year old Spanish 6'6 PG playing for a strong/deep Valencia squad against high level competition in the top Spanish league (ACB) and Eurocup.

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Playing limited minutes (12 mpg) but making the most of them with per 36 numbers of 16.2 pts, 7.8 ast, 6.7 reb, 2.2 stocks on excellent efficiency -- 50.5% FG, 45% 3pt, 76% ft [63% ts; 60% efg]

A little more context on how well Sergio is playing on a very good and deep Valencia team:

- Sergio is 3rd on the team in points per minute (and also 3rd on the team in Usg%) in ACB games
- Sergio is tied for first on the team in points per play (1.4) in ACB games
- Sergio has the 4th best DRTG in ACB games on the Valencia team among the regular rotation players as the youngest player on the squad

On tape, I see a jumbo PG with real playmaking chops and full court vision that has a pure stroke (a little slow), solid athleticism, some defensive versatility and a lack of glaring weaknesses. He doesn't seem to have a very explosive first step, but he gets to his spots on the court and makes some great plays.

If his size and 3 ball are as legit as they seem this season, then I'm not sure what's holding Sergio back from being a lotto talent.

Here's a statistical profile comparison to some other recent young prospects that played in high level European leagues and Giddey (I believe Sergio has faced better competition than the rest this season):

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=sergio-de-larrea--ben-saraf--zaccharie-risacher--nikola-topic--josh-giddey

The sample is low with his mpg so hard to know how real the 3 ball is. IMO it's pretty critical for his 3 ball to be real in order for him to distinguish his trajectory from past young Euro guards like Maledon, Balmero, etc. Unfortunately, Sergio is now out for a few weeks with a dislocated left shoulder.

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De Larrea has been on the sidelines for a few weeks now with a shoulder injury. Hopefully hes back in action soon

22nd pick possibility?

[greg4012]

Spoiler:

A little more on a Euro guard prospect that I have a hunch might just have lotto talent:

Sergio de Larrea is 19 year old Spanish 6'6 PG playing for a strong/deep Valencia squad against high level competition in the top Spanish league (ACB) and Eurocup.

Read on Twitter

Playing limited minutes (12 mpg) but making the most of them with per 36 numbers of 16.2 pts, 7.8 ast, 6.7 reb, 2.2 stocks on excellent efficiency -- 50.5% FG, 45% 3pt, 76% ft [63% ts; 60% efg]

A little more context on how well Sergio is playing on a very good and deep Valencia team:

- Sergio is 3rd on the team in points per minute (and also 3rd on the team in Usg%) in ACB games
- Sergio is tied for first on the team in points per play (1.4) in ACB games
- Sergio has the 4th best DRTG in ACB games on the Valencia team among the regular rotation players as the youngest player on the squad

On tape, I see a jumbo PG with real playmaking chops and full court vision that has a pure stroke (a little slow), solid athleticism, some defensive versatility and a lack of glaring weaknesses. He doesn't seem to have a very explosive first step, but he gets to his spots on the court and makes some great plays.

If his size and 3 ball are as legit as they seem this season, then I'm not sure what's holding Sergio back from being a lotto talent.

Here's a statistical profile comparison to some other recent young prospects that played in high level European leagues and Giddey (I believe Sergio has faced better competition than the rest this season):

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=sergio-de-larrea--ben-saraf--zaccharie-risacher--nikola-topic--josh-giddey

The sample is low with his mpg so hard to know how real the 3 ball is. IMO it's pretty critical for his 3 ball to be real in order for him to distinguish his trajectory from past young Euro guards like Maledon, Balmero, etc. Unfortunately, Sergio is now out for a few weeks with a dislocated left shoulder.

Watch on YouTube

De Larrea has been on the sidelines for a few weeks now with a shoulder injury. Hopefully hes back in action soon

22nd pick possibility?

I'd love that

[greg4012]

Another player I've previously highlighted that I'd love for Miami to target and assess for the later first round pick:

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Likelihood seems to be he'll transfer somewhere like Alabama and be a 2026 first rounder, but man I'd rather he come out now and Miami steal a 2026 top 15 player with a pick in the 20s in the 2025 draft.

[greg4012]

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[lastb1ckman]

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What do yall see Richardson's possible role on this team? I think he's talented, but I'm wary about the Heat adding yet another undersized SG. I don't see him as a PG at all. If we think he has star level scoring I understand, I just see him as a sixth man type guy. Get rid of Rozier and put in Jase.

[MettaWorldPanda]

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I really like Jace. To me he’s got some Kyrie to his game.

https://www.si.com/college/michiganstate/basketball/spartans-jase-richardson-nba-draft-rankings

[greg4012]

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What do yall see Richardson's possible role on this team? I think he's talented, but I'm wary about the Heat adding yet another undersized SG. I don't see him as a PG at all. If we think he has star level scoring I understand, I just see him as a sixth man type guy. Get rid of Rozier and put in Jase.

It's a big question for me that I don't yet have clarity on. Not just specific to this team, as I'm a firm believer Miami needs to come away from each first round pick with the highest impact NBA talent possible, but for his NBA functioning overall.

Jase has a cool blend of skills and is hyper efficient in his role. He's clearly smart, has great touch, and has great coordination operating in tight spaces. But, the limited onball work leaves a big open question with regards to his NBA fit.

Jase is 6'3 (maybe smaller? Although his wingspan looks solid). To be a strong starting player in the NBA at that size you either gotta operate as a true lead guard creating offense or you gotta be an elite volume 3 pt shooter.

This season Jase has created less than half of his own made FGs (46%) and only 56% of his FGM at the rim. Jase also has an assist percentage of 15.2%. Let's compare that to some of the other top guards in the class (some numbers may be a few games old):

Dylan Harper - 75% self-created FGM; 26.5% assist%
VJ Edgecombe - 49% self-created FGM; 19.9% assist%
Tre Johnson - 63% self-created FGM; 16.3% assist%
Jeremiah Fears - 73% self-created FGM; 28.5% assist%
Kasparas Jakucionis - 72% self-created FGM; 27.2% assist%
Jase Richardson - 46% self-created FGM; 15.2% assist%

Without more insight into his onball creation skillset, it's hard to feel confident to project an upside case much better than a player like Malik Monk. With that said, maybe that's just MSU hiding him in a role that he excels in, when he is capable of more.

I'd love to know his half-court PNR numbers and other playtype numbers. He def shows flashes on tape.

[lastb1ckman]

There's plenty of guys I like in the top ten, only problem is getting there. No matter how many games we lose, the teams ahead of us lose just as many, and have been losing like this all season.

[Wiltside]

Just did my first random sim on Tankathon and we jumped to #3. Pls.

[SA37]

Just did my first random sim on Tankathon and we jumped to #3. Pls.

This would be incredible.

Currently Miami could end up with a pick anywhere from 8-11 and the Golden St pick will land somewhere between 17-22. Just those two alone give Miami the chance to go after a whale (KD, Zion) or to go after good pieces (FVV, Cam Johnson, M Turner).

If Miami were to jump into the top-3, Miami could potentially trade down. My guess is the only way Miami 100% keeps the pick is if they can get Flagg. I don't know anything about the other players who could go top-3/5, but Flagg seems to be the franchise player coming out.

[DayofMourning]

There's plenty of guys I like in the top ten, only problem is getting there. No matter how many games we lose, the teams ahead of us lose just as many, and have been losing like this all season.

We are already there lb. Keep Spoziering.

[greg4012]

Keep eye on Labaron Philon from Alabama. Kid is having himself a March. Was just compared to D Fox by the ESPN college panel.

Small sample--but this is the sort of progress you wanna see from freshmen

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[HeatIn5]

Just did my first random sim on Tankathon and we jumped to #3. Pls.

This would be incredible.

Currently Miami could end up with a pick anywhere from 8-11 and the Golden St pick will land somewhere between 17-22. Just those two alone give Miami the chance to go after a whale (KD, Zion) or to go after good pieces (FVV, Cam Johnson, M Turner).

If Miami were to jump into the top-3, Miami could potentially trade down. My guess is the only way Miami 100% keeps the pick is if they can get Flagg. I don't know anything about the other players who could go top-3/5, but Flagg seems to be the franchise player coming out.

highly doubt we're trading down if we end of up in the top 4. I think there's more of a chance of us trying to move up if we end up at like 9-10.

If you can move, let's say, 9/22/Jaime for 3-4 and you can add Harper, Edgecomb, or Bailey to this team (in whichever order you like them), I think you're setting yourself up for success. Also are good players to pair with Herro, all have the ability to be a 2nd or 3rd scorer right away.

Herro/Davion/Dru
Edgecomb/Duncan
Wiggins/Highsmith/Slomo
Bam/Jovic
Ware

I wonder if anyone out there will want to give up someone on a 2-3 year deal for Terry's expiring

[Heat_Down_Under]

Scouting reports say Jase isn’t much really a play maker.. he looks solid offensively.. defensively can anyone that’s watched him play chime in?

Fears is most likely our realistic target… after him looks like Jase and kasparas would be our targets for the PG position.. (even tho Jase might be ahead of fears) they got kasparas’s pro comparison as Chauncey billups… sign me up lol

[dolphinatik]

Watched some Dylan Harper highlights. nice nice.

Maybe , ok def im a homer but Florida's Walter Clayton Jr and Will Richard may go undrafted and Miami needs one or both. I'll say it Harpers form lacks arc and often rattles in.

***Richard's shooting form is worth watching*** and should translate to a great spot up shooter.
Not bad for someone that we can get late 2nd or undrafted. I also think Clayton's stock is about to rise to late first.

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[DayofMourning]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2025/3/18/24380272/dylan-harper-interview-rutgers-over-duke-kobe-bryant-michael-jordan-ace-bailey-love-nba-draft

[batterybro42]

Tre Johnson would be a great fit here. Miami needs a tough shot taker and maker. His biggest knocks are things that could be improved in the right program.

[greg4012]

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[greg4012]

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There's a chance until there's not

[Beenie]

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There's a chance until there's not

Plays with a type of fire and intensity that would do wonders to get Heat Culture back on brand.

Team's recently tarnished reputation desperately needs someone with this kind of disposition to gets things back on track.