Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[stevemcqueen1]

Wow, I'm in complete agreement with Chad Ford (1. Noel 2. Porter). I'm not sure what to think anymore, lol.

Porter is a safe pick and obvious fit. He's got NBA ready skills and has the right kind of personality to add to the mix. Maybe that's the best thing we can come out of this draft with. I see very little chance he ends up a bust. Also see very little chance he ends up an All Star.

But Porter as a top three pick and potential #1 overall pick is a stark indictment of how horrible this class is IMO.

I watched a bunch of videos of Andrew Wiggins, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Gordon, and Julius Randle and I was stunned at how much better and more athletic they are than the top prospects in this class. So much better bodies, so much more explosive, so much more coordinated looking, so much better ball handling skills and offensive creativity.

The only elite athletes among the top prospects this year are Noel, McLemore, and Oladipo. But McLemore is a bit of a straight line runner and Oladipo isn't particularly smooth. And neither are good ball handlers capable of breaking defenses down off the dribble. And Noel does not have an NBA ready body. After those three you have a group of bigs in Len, Zeller, and Austin who are the next best athletes against their NBA position, but all are lacking NBA strength and none are super springy or laterally explosive like Noel.

This just isn't a very good class to be picking at the top. Noel is the only franchise player IMO and he's a very long term project that might be offensively flawed in that he doesn't seem to always catch the ball well. Plus he's seriously injured. After him there is barely any separation between the next seven or eight guys and all of them look like role players.

I see three ways to approach this draft:
- just take a safe pick or trade down for a safe pick knowing my upside is crap for my draft position this year.
- swing for a big with upside knowing it's going to be years and years before I see a return on the investment.
- trade the pick for a vet OR draft a player I think I can then subsequently trade for a vet.

I would include the pick as part of a package to Sacramento for DeMarcus Cousins if they were listening to offers.

[nate33]

DeShaun Thomas is a lot like Antawn Jamison of college basketball. A decent volume shooter, scorer, terrible defender, stuck b/w two positions he has no capability of defending.

I'm not real high on his pro prospects because of his defensive shortcomings, but the kid can get up shots and make a few of them. At #54 he a good pick but I probably wouldn't take him early in the 2nd round.

I think he's a little better than a "decent volume shooter". He is leading the Big Ten in scoring and posting a TS% of 56% despite being on a team that has nobody else who can score. He gets no help whatsoever. Last year when he had a little help, he posted a TS% of 60% while averaging 20 points per 40 minutes (pace adjusted). That's not really a "volume shooter". I'd say that's a quality scorer.

I totally agree about his defensive shortcomings. The only thing I can say in his favor on that front is that he has improved his rebounding substantially and is now averaging 10.5 rebounds per 40 minutes, which isn't bad. And he does play on the 2nd best defense in the best conference in basketball.

In general, I agree that he probably should go in the middle of the 2nd round, not the top.

[nate33]

Wow, I'm in complete agreement with Chad Ford (1. Noel 2. Porter). I'm not sure what to think anymore, lol.

Interesting that his Mock Draft has the Wizards favoring Len as their #2 choice behind Noel. I wonder if that has changed in the past couple of weeks, or is Ford just saying who he would take as his 2nd choice behind Noel.

[stevemcqueen1]

Georgetown - Villanova - 7:00 - ESPN2
Michigan - Purdue - 7:00 - BTN
Oklahoma St. - Iowa St. - 7:00 ESPNU
UCLA - Wash St. - 9:30 - PACN
UNC - Maryland - 7:00 - ESPN

[montestewart]

DeShaun Thomas is a lot like Antawn Jamison of college basketball. A decent volume shooter, scorer, terrible defender, stuck b/w two positions he has no capability of defending.

I'm not real high on his pro prospects because of his defensive shortcomings, but the kid can get up shots and make a few of them. At #54 he a good pick but I probably wouldn't take him early in the 2nd round.

I think he's a little better than a "decent volume shooter". He is leading the Big Ten in scoring and posting a TS% of 56% despite being on a team that has nobody else who can score. He gets no help whatsoever. Last year when he had a little help, he posted a TS% of 60% while averaging 20 points per 40 minutes (pace adjusted). That's not really a "volume shooter". I'd say that's a quality scorer.

I totally agree about his defensive shortcomings. The only thing I can say in his favor on that front is that he has improved his rebounding substantially and is now averaging 10.5 rebounds per 40 minutes, which isn't bad. And he does play on the 2nd best defense in the best conference in basketball.

In general, I agree that he probably should go in the middle of the 2nd round, not the top.

DraftExpress has him averaging 7.1 rebounds per 40. He had 10.5 per 40 in limited minutes in his freshman season. They also have his pace adjusted scoring at 23 per 40. Doesn't really change the equation though. Might be a good off the bench option (or better, eventually) for some team to take a late shot on.

[nate33]

DeShaun Thomas is a lot like Antawn Jamison of college basketball. A decent volume shooter, scorer, terrible defender, stuck b/w two positions he has no capability of defending.

I'm not real high on his pro prospects because of his defensive shortcomings, but the kid can get up shots and make a few of them. At #54 he a good pick but I probably wouldn't take him early in the 2nd round.

I think he's a little better than a "decent volume shooter". He is leading the Big Ten in scoring and posting a TS% of 56% despite being on a team that has nobody else who can score. He gets no help whatsoever. Last year when he had a little help, he posted a TS% of 60% while averaging 20 points per 40 minutes (pace adjusted). That's not really a "volume shooter". I'd say that's a quality scorer.

I totally agree about his defensive shortcomings. The only thing I can say in his favor on that front is that he has improved his rebounding substantially and is now averaging 10.5 rebounds per 40 minutes, which isn't bad. And he does play on the 2nd best defense in the best conference in basketball.

In general, I agree that he probably should go in the middle of the 2nd round, not the top.

DraftExpress has him averaging 7.1 rebounds per 40. He had 10.5 per 40 in limited minutes in his freshman season. They also have his pace adjusted scoring at 23 per 40. Doesn't really change the equation though. Might be a good off the bench option (or better, eventually) for some team to take a late shot on.

Thanks for the correction. I read that wrong.

Okay, not much good at all to be said about his defense.

[tontoz]

Wow, I'm in complete agreement with Chad Ford (1. Noel 2. Porter). I'm not sure what to think anymore, lol.

Seek help immediately.

[stevemcqueen1]

Porter looks like he's favoring something when he runs. Is he injured?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Great night for hoops! Get to watch Terps and Hoyas at 7, then Wizards start at 8! Good chance to see Len and Porter.

Porter's had a nice steal... just saw Len make a nice shot too!

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Wow Len saves it from going out then throws down reverse dunk!

[stevemcqueen1]

Wow Len saves it from going out then throws down reverse dunk!

That was nice but it was a stupid play from the UNC player.

[stevemcqueen1]

Great night for hoops! Get to watch Terps and Hoyas at 7, then Wizards start at 8! Good chance to see Len and Porter.

Porter's had a nice steal... just saw Len make a nice shot too!

Porter does a good job communicating on D and directing his teammates.

He has such a great feel for how the ball comes off the rim too. He rebounds outside his area very well.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Porter does a good job communicating on D and directing his teammates.

He has such a great feel for how the ball comes off the rim too. He rebounds outside his area very well.

Love that little shove to get open cutting to the basket. Yeah, he's like a pg running the team from the front court.

[stevemcqueen1]

Love that little shove to get open cutting to the basket. Yeah, he's like a pg running the team from the front court.

He's not feeling his shot tonight though. He's also looking slow tonight. Really really gathering himself to change directions and Nova got a bucket in transition in a 1 on 1 because Porter didn't run the floor that hard and watched his teammate get scored on. If that's him sprinting back then he's slow.

Do you know if he is hurt?

[Ruzious]

Wow Len saves it from going out then throws down reverse dunk!

That was nice but it was a stupid play from the UNC player.

MD doesn't have a decent PG, but he makes their jobs so much harder because he's so soft at fighting for entry passes. Why pass to him if you know there's a good chance he'll simply let the opposition out-fight him for the ball? He's really lacking court awareness - unless the ball goes right to him. It's so frustrating, because he's go so much natural ability.

[hands11]

Here is the question thats easy to forget when looking at draft picks.

Are you drafting a starter on a good team?

Are you drafting a player who can eventually be a top 5-10 player at his position.

Is that a position that is core to a conference title team.

Can they contribute right away. I'm not wasting a top pick on a project.

Beal qualified as a great pick. SG Offense. Defense. Personality. He has it all.

But most years, while you can find players that look solid, most the draft is filled with back quality players on a 2nd round or conference title level team. So if you want filler quality back up, fine. Go for it.

The way I see the Wizards, they have Beal and Nene. I'm not counting Wall for lots of reasons that have been discussed in the Wall thread. Trevor A and Webster are top quality back up SF on a great team.

So for me, I want my top pick to have that start kind of potential. If not, don't over value the pick if it is 3 or 4th. Specially not as a #1 or 2.

In today game, I don't see the best teams with the centers as their best player. Certainly not young centers. You need a good defensive center first and for most part there are not many Shaq teams out there.

Great talent at SG, SF is more important and its gotta be a player that has a real feel for the game. Good handles. Great shot. Great D. PF is important also. Just look at the Wizard. Beal and Nene are what stabilize the team.

I honestly don't know enough about Noel to know his upside. Can he be elite top 3 in the league, if not, I wouldn't take him top 3.

If I have a top 3 pick, I'm going with Otto or Victor O. Victor O has the high ceiling and Otto has the low bust potential. 6-8 SF that plays team ball and can do it all. He will keep value and should get better year after year as he learns and gets stronger. Burke would be my 3rd choice as a top pick but in the 5-6 range but I would trade Wall in doing it and get another top pick.

I don't think I would use my first top 4 on Noel or Len. I think they both be good but I think the Wizard still need core stars and center isn't often that position any more in the NBA.

I go for one of those 3 and draft center later in the draft. Jeff Withey does everything the Wizard would need backing up Okafor.

I would even consider a trade for a top know NBA winning talent in a package. I wouldn't waste having Nene while we have him. Add one more known quality piece at SF and you could make some noise with Beal and Webster on the team.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Love that little shove to get open cutting to the basket. Yeah, he's like a pg running the team from the front court.

He's not feeling his shot tonight though. He's also looking slow tonight. Really really gathering himself to change directions and Nova got a bucket in transition in a 1 on 1 because Porter didn't run the floor that hard and watched his teammate get scored on. If that's him sprinting back then he's slow.

Do you know if he is hurt?

He's not hurt that I know of. I think that's just the way he looks. He's not the most fluid looking guy as we've discussed.


BTW love this Buzzer Beater channel... it's like the Red Zone channel of college hoops!

[Ruzious]

Hands, the fact that there aren't star centers in the NBA is a terrible reason to not go after Noel. Because the talent level at C is so low, it gives you a big advantage to have a good one. The only 2 dominant centers in the NBA the last couple of years were Howard and Bynum - with Pau Gasol right behind them. Howard and Bynum had serious injuries, and Gasol got old. So, if you can get an outstanding center, you're golden. You have what everyone else wants.

[stevemcqueen1]

Not a good looking injury for McAdoo. I wouldn't be surprised if that was more serious than it looked. Looked like he wrenched his back.

[hands11]

Hands, the fact that there aren't star centers in the NBA is a terrible reason to not go after Noel. Because the talent level at C is so low, it gives you a big advantage to have a good one. The only 2 dominant centers in the NBA the last couple of years were Howard and Bynum - with Pau Gasol right behind them. Howard and Bynum had serious injuries, and Gasol got old. So, if you can get an outstanding center, you're golden. You have what everyone else wants.

Howard and Bynum ? You see anyone that good in this draft ? How long did it take for Bynum to do anything. And he was on the Lakers which was a great team. Howard ? Great marketing pieces but is he leading a team to a title ? Maybe eventually he will but having him as the best player seemed like a bad idea. He has been in the league 9 years now. He might finally be maturing enough to make a difference on a winning team.

Centers are important but I find other positions more important. I would rather have a blue collar center. I also find true leader personalities very important. I don't see Noel or Len leading a team.

Hell, I would try to grab a Nikola Pekovic if I could.

D Williams starting to looking like he is figuring things out.