Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[verbal8]

anybody interesting in trading down for something first round next season?

If what CCJ say is true about his history in picking good talent hidden. Maybe there is room to pick up somebody later in the draft this year and use that first round from next year at getting somebody great as well for trading up if they have to.

I think in theory it would be great if possible. However a lot of teams don't have a 1st available next year to trade. If the Wizards get the 3rd pick it might be a good trade-down(assuming Noel and Porter go 1/2). I think a lot of teams would like McLemore or Trey Burke who aren't great fits for the Wizards.

[Rafael122]

1 week until the draft lottery. There's a report out that the Wizards are going to talk to Len and Porter at the Combine/draft measurements this week.

link?

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball ... porter-len

[Dark Faze]

They have to know there's zippy chance at getting Porter right?

Thinking of a trade up scenario with Cleveland that might work. I got nothin.

[verbal8]

They have to know there's zippy chance at getting Porter right?

Thinking of a trade up scenario with Cleveland that might work. I got nothin.

There is about a 12% chance of the Wizards moving into the top 3. Not great, but not zero.

[Nivek]

I see defense as being about a combination of toughness, focus, anticipation, strength, and speed. Length helps. The guys who are the best usually have all of those things at a high level. And I do think those attributes are identifiable and projectable. Maybe not from where we sit, but NBA teams can figure it out.

And after all, some defenders absolutely stand out and would probably do so no matter the system you put them in.

I think Singleton could actually play good defense in the NBA, if he could get on the floor regularly. To build up a good body of work on D you need to play. He's had his moments, games where he D'd up Carmelo as well as anyone can. He's just not a good enough player to command minutes I suppose.

I agree about being able to identify and project the attributes needed to be a good defender in the NBA. My point is that teams don't get to pick and choose which characteristics they get in a player. They have to take the whole guy -- both strengths and weaknesses -- and then the team has to live with what aggregates from the sum total of those strengths and weaknesses. Singleton may be able to play good NBA-level defense, but his lack of an offensive game means that he's hurting the team badly in other ways while he's on the floor.

A defensive "specialist" who's not good enough to command minutes isn't worth much.

All of that said, Singleton hasn't had much more than a handful of defensive "moments" despite 2300+ minutes and 62 career starts.

[Rafael122]

They have to know there's zippy chance at getting Porter right?

Thinking of a trade up scenario with Cleveland that might work. I got nothin.

They're just doing their homework, and Porter/Len camp is doing theirs as well. Porter probably won't drop but Len will probably be there at our pick.

[Ruzious]

When people start getting really specific with what we need--3rd guard, stretch 4, etc.--I think that's too narrow a focus. They're focusing on today's needs before FA. I think we've got to look longer term. We're not making the pick in a vacuum, but the only definite long term pieces we've got are Wall and Beal and Nene is probably a long term piece. The canvas is still somewhat blank and we're still in the market for long term starters at the 3 and the 5 IMO. That's what I'd want to get out of this draft pick ideally.

An outstanding defensive 5 like Noah or Gasol would make our team incredibly good. An outstanding 3 & D SF with passing ability like Paul George would too. That's why Noel and Porter are my top two right now. I really hope we move up and get one of them.

Noel especially. He's on his way to being essentially the same player that Noah is. They have basically the same strengths and weaknesses. The same things people question about Noel are things people questioned on Noah. I remember my bottom line on Noah - whatever team gets him is going to win a lot of games. Same thing with Noah.

[Knighthonor]

They have to know there's zippy chance at getting Porter right?

Thinking of a trade up scenario with Cleveland that might work. I got nothin.

Draft is rigged remember.
EG scored some Stern goodie points by taking loaded contracts off the Hornets.. So he giving EG a high draft pick this year.

[stevemcqueen1]

They have to know there's zippy chance at getting Porter right?

Thinking of a trade up scenario with Cleveland that might work. I got nothin.

They're just doing their homework, and Porter/Len camp is doing theirs as well. Porter probably won't drop but Len will probably be there at our pick.

I think Porter will drop a little after workouts. He's not going to look good at the combine. And people are going to start dissecting the awkwardness of his game, his funny jumper mechanics, the funny looking way he runs, the way he labors a bit when he changes directions.

I think Porter ultimately settles into a 5-8 range. I would probably try and move up a bit to get him if he makes it past 4.

[pancakes3]

Wiggins is going to Kansas. He'll put up monster stats, I bet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

What are some examples of guys being drafted, in the lottery, as stretch fours who actually ended up being decent value?

Ilyasova was drafted 6th in the 2nd round.
Anderson was drafted 21st.
Novak was drafted 2nd in the 2nd round.
Rashard Lewis was drafted 3rd in the 2nd round.

Of all the guys drafted in the lottery over the years (Bargnani, Villanueva, etc.), Nowitzki is the only guy who is more valuable than his draft position.

Discussions about drafting guys like Bennet concern me. Stretch fours are created, not drafted. Find an athletic big with intelligence, work ethic, and a good free throw percentage. He can develop a perimeter shot.

Mike Muscala is a C in college, but I think he has nice range on his shot. Like Olynyk, I could see him playing some PF in the NBA. He could end up becoming a great value pick in round two because of his rebounding and offensive versatility.

[nuposse04]

They have to know there's zippy chance at getting Porter right?

Thinking of a trade up scenario with Cleveland that might work. I got nothin.

Management must know the god of probability is due to give them a favor.

[The Consiglieri]

Let's dispense with the notion that Chris Singleton's college numbers were ever "great" or even much good. His junior numbers were better than his sophomore and freshman numbers, but were still unimpressive. His eOrtg in his "great" junior season was 101. His 2pt% WAS .466, which would be subpar for a PG. Oladipo this season had an eOrtg of 122 and shot .644 on 2pt attempts. Oladipo more efficient offensively in all three of his college seasons than Singleton in his best.

Comparing their junior years, the only thing Singleton did better was block shots. Rebounding was fairly close (9.4 per 40 minutes for Singleton vs. 8.9 per 40 for Oladipo).

Singleton was considered the best defender in that class and in the nation at the time. Ditto oladipo. Both made significant improvements on the offensive end to boost the hell out of their stock in their draft years. That's the analogy, not that their offensive numbers in and of themselves are relatively equal.

I see and understand your analogy. I sorta tripped over "great" when it came to Singleton's numbers -- which were improved, but still bad. But, I do see your point.

Singleton sorta represents a peril of drafting for defense, at least on the perimeter. So much of defense in the NBA is team concept, coaching and good bigs. You want guys who play with toughness and work hard on defense, but ultimately perimeter defense in the NBA is more about executing the scheme than individual effort/prowess. There are exceptions, of course, but a defensive specialist who was inefficient in college is going to self-check in the pros.

It was a bit different in that I think scouts at the time (preceeding his apparently hideous performance in 1v1 workouts with other prospects, i think he probably regressed back to his historical mean as a shooter in them, though i have no evidence beyond hearing he was one of two prospects that looked horrible in workouts) loved his versatility, and felt that with his breakthrough as a shooter in his last year (it wasn't so much that he killed it, as it was that he'd finally improved from a liability on the offensive end, to a reasonably reliable 3 and D small forward that coupd play a little 4) and his ability to guard virtually any position (compared to LeBron in that sense), he was a strong asset, and well worth a top 15 pick on draft day. In may his stock climbed inside the top 10 where several teams were considering moving up for him including supposedly the warriors, apparently it was his poor workouts in the last month that dropped him back down.

My fear at the time, and that I posted about it, was that while i loved him that final year, i was very worried that his offensive production was an outlier and not predictive of squat. That without multiple seasons of reliable scoring from him and efficiency on that end, we couldn't know if he really had figured it out, or just had a hot couple of months as a shooter. Well it turns out he was just hot.


I have the same fears about oladipo because like Singleton, he was very raw offensively, and considered a mediocre prospect this year (I didnt see him in any top 20's, i dont even remember seeing him in any top 30's before the season), before the light suddenly went on for him as a scorer. Suddenly he was efficent, and had found his shot. Or has he? One season alone is not predictive for me. The same reason I don't crush guys like Muhammad, Beal and Drummond (especially when their previous track record is so exemplary and involves multiple years of suuccess), is the reason I worried about SIngleton, and now Oladipo. Is he getting it, or did he just have an outlier season, and will regress back to a defensive player with limited offensive skills? I don't know. The only reason I'm more excited about Oladipo than Singleton is that Oladipo is younger, and more athletic. At the time, I was concerned about Singleton, and hated the idea of taking him at #6, but considered the choice between him, Harris, and Faried, at #16 or was it #17, a buffet line of wonderful options. Alas, it turned out Singleton was the heat/air spoiled boiled beef. What a miserable draft that was.

Anyway, no probs, i love all the work you do, just wanted to make sure you understood where I was coming from.

[DCZards]

You gloss over that key and critical point though. Shabazz' high ranking had a great deal to do with scouts' perception that he had an unusually mature game and body for a kid of his age. That his upside may have been higher than it is. That he may continue to grow literally and figuratively. This opinion (that he is the #1 overall talent in the country) was formed by his performance over the years playing against kids up to 2 years younger than him. And in what has turned out to be a consensus weak draft class. There's a reason we have Varsity and JV teams in schools, we pit kids against others with similar physical maturity. He was being measured with the wrong yardstick, thus you have to discount that error in ranking. Would he have been ranked #1 against Anthony Davis, MKG and Brad Beal? And scouts get it wrong often anyway. Or do you want to trade this year's #1 pick for Josh Selby or Harrison Barnes.

Shabazz does not have that disadvantage to overcome (immaturity) nor is the knock on him that he lacks passion for the game, thus his upside is lesser: this may be all we get from him, no great growth or further development. Thus Drummond is not a fair analogy for Shabazz, if anything Shabazz suffers from the comparison. You make the case that he is secretly better than he looks, but If this is in fact all we get from him, then it ain't enough.

I like his passion and competitiveness. He works hard for his points. Maybe he improves based on that drive and desire. Always a good sign. But his talent is less than the perception of it once was. He is probably not the most talented player in his draft class.

Doc, I don’t think anyone is arguing that Bazz should be a top pick in the NBA based on his ranking as high school senior or that he’s the most talented player in his draft class. I personally see him as being in the 6-10 range.

I’m very impressed with Bazz’s offensive package. He’s capable of scoring in a variety of ways—both from the inside and outside. I think he’ll be able to do the same at the next level. Bazz definitely needs to become a much better ballhandler and passer but those are skills that can be developed, imo. In fact, imo, Bazz has a better chance of developing those skills than MKG has of becoming a good shooter.

And, as you point out in your last paragraph, Bazz plays with a passion and competiveness that shouldn't be overlooked or discounted.

Lying about his age was obviously wrong. But I don’t see Bazz’s age or maturity as the major advantage that others seem to think it was…at least not at the college level. When he got to UCLA Bazz was playing primarily against sophs, juniors and seniors…guys who were either his age or older.

And stats based on one (uneven and tumultuous) year of college ball is far too small of a sample to fully judge a player’s potential or efficiency, imo. Beal shot 34% from 3 pt. range in his one year at Fla., but shot 38% in his rook year in the NBA.

Beal’s less-than-stellar shooting in his one year at Fla. led some on this board to argue that he was an overrated shooter and that the Zards should stay away from him. I think we see how that turned out.

[dobrojim]

[snippage]
Otto Porter!

I just think he's a great fit. We look like we're committing to Wittman. We need to be thinking about the types of players who won't end up in his dog house. Someone who is tough, very unselfish, and very mature and would basically be a dream for anyone to coach. That's Porter. I'm starting to think I'd take him second overall even if the rest of the league wouldn't take him until the third or fourth pick at the earliest.

I totally agree. Outside of Noel, assuming we can be assured of his recovery
from injury, I don't see a player who would be a better fit for us than OP. But there are
several teams that probably covet him as much as I do and are likely to pick in
front of us. But if we get lucky in the lotto and move into the top 3, I would have
no hesitation taking OP. Then our 1-3 positions are filled with top talent hopefully
for years to come (assuming OP pans out).

I also like Dipo a lot in spite of him not necessarily being a good fit position-wise
(and I would still re-sign Martell even if we got Dipo). I just like how Dipo plays
and the fact that his efficiency numbers are good just confirm for me that he
would be a good choice given the opportunity. edit to add - I should admit
that I really liked Chris Singleton as a pick when we took him. His 3 during
his rookie season was passable. No question he was horrible this year though.

Olynick and Len are interesting possibilities. Burke is another although I like
AJ Price and he would possibly be cheaper than a mid-lotto pick. CJM is another
intriguing possibility. This draft could be rich with both busts and overlooked
players who become solid contributors. Not hard to envision either outcome
with many of these players. Zeller is another case in point.

Is it possible that no one stands out partly because the overall level of
talent gets consistently better (on average) with each year with the caveat
that there are and probably always will be special talents like Shaq, TimmyD,
Bron who only come around every so often.

seems pretty likely 3-5 years from now there will be lots of hand wringing and I-told-you-so's
about busts as well as surprises from this year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate, I do tend to be optimistic about a lot of players, but the real key is players I like that nobody else likes. Track that over time and come back with a percentage of hits vs misses. If I like a player about a year or two before most or if I like a guy most hate, I think I'm right way more often than I'm wrong. So much so that a few people follow what I say now.

The two guys NOBODY seems to like that are as obvious to me as the nose on my face are Stephens and Marshall. Someone else mentioned Reddic, but I agree. Just depends on the team he ends up with. Colton Iverson can make a roster and contribute as well. Wolters is going to be WAY BETTER than projected. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could be an all star. Allen Crabbe looks like a future starter to me.

Negatives: Micheal Carter-Williams looks like a bust to me. Trey Burke will not be an NBA superstar. Shabazz Muhammed is tremendously overrated. Ben McLemore seems to belong more toward the end of the lottery to the middle of round one than in the top-5 to me. He reminds me a lot of Gerald Green.

As far as your post, I didn't rate Oladipo as an MVP candidate and I didn't rate Tier 2 as all stars. If you want that I would say this: Olynyk is a scoring C who has a decent chance of being an all star at some point. He could easily become one if the Wizards draft him because they have a strong back court and solid, veteran big men to ease his transition. Trey Burke has an excellent chance of being a scoring PG and an all star. Oladipo is way better than rated and I would wager WILL be a multiple all star. I think a surprise player arise, probably one with a lot of athleticism. Kabongo, Franklin, and even someone like Lorenzo Brown could be surprisingly effective pros. Pope could become one and so could Crabbe. Bennett is also a player who could become a perennial all star. I could see Isaiah Canaan becoming another Derrick Fisher. All stars tend to be good scorers and this class has a few. CJ McCollum lacks strength but he reminds me of Walt Frazier.

So, I do tend to like this class a lot more than most, nate. I don't see an MVP-elite type player, but I see quite a few who could be good with the right team. Otto Porter with the Wizards could become a very, very solid player. Obviously, so could Alex Len.

Thanks for clearing that up CCJ. I think I have a better understanding of your predictions now.

No worries, nate. You are IMO the backbone of this board. I have the utmost respect for you. I'm glad you asked me for specifics. I could be wrong, but I don't mind taking a definitive stance.

[Nivek]

Consiglieri -- I agree with your underlying point. One key difference between Oladipo's junior year improvement and Singleton's is that Oladipo's leap started from a higher basement.

Here's Oladipo's progression year to year in usage (possessions used per 40 minutes and eOffensive rating):

FR -- 15.3 -- 109
SO -- 16.1 -- 105
JR -- 15.9 -- 122

And here's Singleton's

FR -- 13.1 -- 94
SO -- 15.6 -- 88
JR -- 17.2 -- 101

In Singleton's case, his 2pt% in his junior year actually got worse. He shot better from 3pt range and from the FT line, but his FT% was still on the low side.

Oladipo is interesting. Very high percentage from 2pt range in his freshman and junior years (.598 and .644) and an acceptable percentage from 2pt range his sophomore season. His worst season from 2pt range was significantly better than Singleton's best. As a freshman, he shot a low percentage from 3pt range and from the FT line, and then got worse from 3pt range his junior year and better from the FT line. Then in his junior year, he maintained the improved FT percentage (suggestive of an overall improved stroke) and shot a very high percentage from 3pt range.

In the other stat categories, Oladipo basically maintained what he'd been doing from freshman year. The only real upticks were in steals and blocks. His assists went up from freshman to sophomore season. He maintained that improvement as a junior.

Singleton's non-scoring numbers improved even less during his college career. His rebounding went up each year. Assists went up his soph season, and then right back down as a junior. Steals and blocks were about the same all three years. Turnovers went up his sophomore season and back down his junior year. Pretty high all three years given his usage rate and low assists. He fouled more each season, which is somewhat unique. Usually players go the other direction -- decreased fouling as they gain experience and playing time.

Pretty interesting to look at these guys. Pending results from the combine, Oladipo looks to be worth a top 5 pick. Singleton rated as a 2nd rounder in the updated system.

[stevemcqueen1]

Wiggins is going to Kansas. He'll put up monster stats, I bet.

I'm a little surprised by the decision. I don't know how I feel about him playing for Bill Self. I hope Self opens up his offense for Wiggins.

They've also got two SFs now between him and Selden. Wiggins will probably end up playing at PF or I guess they can move Selden down to SG, but that's not the ideal spot for him.

I was hoping for UNC or Florida St. personally. UNC would have been great for the rivalry with Duke and Jabari Parker. But Kansas should be fun for a year. They'll be a legit challenger to Kentucky for a championship.

I never believed he would go to Kentucky. It made no sense for him. He'd have gotten to score like 10 points a game.

[tontoz]

Worried that Ves will be traded/cut and Len will be a Wizard. The Wizards don't use the D-League and they don't develop players really.

Yeah that is my big worry now too.

[Dark Faze]

Kentucky would be the safe bet for going #1.

If he plays like Barnes and Shabazz the hype train will come to a halt.