Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

Post #261 » by **Zonkerbl** » Fri Oct 4, 2013 2:08 pm

My gut tells me Okafor will be out for the season. Maybe that's just my past experience with Wizards luck with injuries.

No Okafor means the defense will not be top 5, maybe top 15. Offense will probably stay at around 22nd, so the Wiz should end up somewhere around 18-19. That puts them just outside the playoffs -- probably 38 wins. So that's my updated prediction.

Post #262 » by **nate33** » Fri Oct 4, 2013 2:14 pm

GhostsOfGil wrote:Wow Cleveland at 28 wins? Toronto at 48? Philly and NY at 38? Lots of questionable predictions here...

Yeah, Toronto with 48 wins and Indy at just 43 doesn't make a damn bit of sense to me.

AnotherFinn · Post #263 » by **AnotherFinn** » Fri Oct 4, 2013 3:22 pm

hmmm, why my 35 has been taken off?

Dat2U · Post #264 » by **Dat2U** » Fri Oct 4, 2013 3:42 pm

I'm thinking 37 wins which is probably the worst case scenario. We'll finish strong enough to make a late season playoff push but will inevitably come up a few game short. A relatively low lottery pick and a season that's sprinkled with just enough promise, hope and optimism (and injuries too) to keep Ernie & the crew employed for another year or two.

TheBabyMaker · Post #265 » by **TheBabyMaker** » Sat Oct 5, 2013 8:45 am

I'm sticking with 42. Don't bail out now Wizards fans.

TheBabyMaker · Post #266 » by **TheBabyMaker** » Sat Oct 5, 2013 8:49 am

GhostsOfGil wrote:Wow Cleveland at 28 wins? Toronto at 48? Philly and NY at 38? Lots of questionable predictions here...

Its not questionable. Its stupid predictions. Houston at 63 and GS at 42 LMFAO.

Toronto at 48 is overly ridiculous.

Oh yea Raps in 4

hands11 · Post #267 » by **hands11** » Sat Oct 5, 2013 3:17 pm

GhostsOfGil wrote:Wow Cleveland at 28 wins? Toronto at 48? Philly and NY at 38? Lots of questionable predictions here...

They have CLE ranked lower then I did, but I did have then ranked low and not making the playoffs.

But they do shine a light on TOR. More then I would but they should be in consideration for the playoffs. That last spot is up for grabs. DET, MIK, TOR

Lots will ride on how much of the load Jonas can carry.

I haven't finish reviewing the rosters of all the team to rank them but TOR is interesting at some level.

hands11 · Post #268 » by **hands11** » Sat Oct 5, 2013 3:31 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:My gut tells me Okafor will be out for the season. Maybe that's just my past experience with Wizards luck with injuries.

No Okafor means the defense will not be top 5, maybe top 15. Offense will probably stay at around 22nd, so the Wiz should end up somewhere around 18-19. That puts them just outside the playoffs -- probably 38 wins. So that's my updated prediction.

What did your gut say would happen with Wall last year ? Did you expect him to return mid January, play himself into shape, top out at 45 min, never show any ill effect of his injury and not miss a single game after his return ?

Just checking. Because I recall more then a few posts here ( not saying it was you ) that said he would return, get injured again and require surgery that ended his season.

My expectation for Okafor are not crystallized yet. Not enough info. From what I have seen, it looks positive. He felt pain. He had started to get better on its own. He checked it out and found a bigger issue. He is rehabbing and seemed positive about it. I have zero question about he putting in the work to get better. So there is more is the positive bucket then negative, but just not enough to project that well from. We need another data point to show progress over time to project a return date.

I expect we will hear that information during the preseason.

MJG · Post #269 » by **MJG** » Sat Oct 5, 2013 11:56 pm

I'm dropping my prediction from 40 down to 36. I was assuming some smaller injuries with my summertime prediction, but seeing a potentially serious one occur before the season has even started tells me I was being too optimistic with our health.

EDIT: Dropped from 36 to 33 in a later post.

Post #270 » by **nate33** » Sun Oct 6, 2013 3:26 pm

I'm sticking with my 44 win prediction just to buck the trend. This team played real good defense after the McGee trade and before Okafor's arrival, so I don't see why they can't do so again.

I really do think that Seraphin will play MUCH better than last year and will actually be a viable rotation player. I think he'll be better than what he was in his 2nd year when he posted an ORtg of 105 and a DRtg of 105. This year, I expect more like an ORtg of 108 and a DRtg of 104, which will make him a rock solid player and really round out the rotation.

If Wall plays 75+ games and Nene plays 2000 minutes, we will make the playoffs.

daSwami · Post #271 » by **daSwami** » Sun Oct 6, 2013 7:30 pm

Looks like there may be as many or more teams in lose now (i.e., tank) mode, than there are teams trying to make the play-offs, which might work in our favor, which is why I'm sticking with my 82-win prediction.

doclinkin · Post #272 » by **doclinkin** » Sun Oct 6, 2013 8:27 pm

nate33 wrote: This team played real good defense after the McGee trade and before Okafor's arrival, so I don't see why they can't do so again.

hands11 · Post #273 » by **hands11** » Sun Oct 6, 2013 8:59 pm

nate33 wrote:I'm sticking with my 44 win prediction just to buck the trend. This team played real good defense after the McGee trade and before Okafor's arrival, so I don't see why they can't do so again.

I really do think that Seraphin will play MUCH better than last year and will actually be a viable rotation player. I think he'll be better than what he was in his 2nd year when he posted an ORtg of 105 and a DRtg of 105. This year, I expect more like an ORtg of 108 and a DRtg of 104, which will make him a rock solid player and really round out the rotation.

If Wall plays 75+ games and Nene plays 2000 minutes, we will make the playoffs.

Yeah, Kevin is set up well for some on court improvement. Easily with in his reach. And I like the support system in place around him to help him get there.

Preseason should help us understand what some of the important piece will be able to do. Things like hearing what Ted said about Nene helps. He said he was sprinting up and down the court. But I want to see it. Those are huge factors. Seeing Kevin aggressively rebound is another. Seeing what Ves looks like out there matters. If he has swag and will actually shoot the ball and make some FTs, that another +1. And Al and Maynor. And they are supposed to be running more on offense. Those are keys between 40 wins and being in the 44-45 range.

I'm still at 45 for now. Need more info before changing that up or down a little.

pancakes3 · Post #274 » by **pancakes3** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 12:09 am

nate33 wrote:
GhostsOfGil wrote:Wow Cleveland at 28 wins? Toronto at 48? Philly and NY at 38? Lots of questionable predictions here...

Yeah, Toronto with 48 wins and Indy at just 43 doesn't make a damn bit of sense to me.

What jumped out to me is how the 66-win Heat grades out at 55 wins. Brooklyn with their patchwork of aging superstars is possibly even MORE underrated seeing as how they're slated for 37 wins but I have a hard time seeing them win less than 50. The dysfunctional Lakers cobbled together 45 wins, the Nets can definitely pull out 50.

However, to get to the real headscratcher, I went next-level nerdy and added up the wins. The total wins is 1280.8 but there are only 1230 wins to go around, which means the list overestimates wins. Even with overestimation of wins, the Heat and Nets are STILL (imo) undervalued in terms of wins. Point is, don't expect 10 western conference teams to end up above .500. That, or Phoenix might end up with -10 wins on the year.

Post #275 » by **montestewart** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 1:59 am

pancakes3 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
GhostsOfGil wrote:Wow Cleveland at 28 wins? Toronto at 48? Philly and NY at 38? Lots of questionable predictions here...

Yeah, Toronto with 48 wins and Indy at just 43 doesn't make a damn bit of sense to me.

What jumped out to me is how the 66-win Heat grades out at 55 wins. Brooklyn with their patchwork of aging superstars is possibly even MORE underrated seeing as how they're slated for 37 wins but I have a hard time seeing them win less than 50. The dysfunctional Lakers cobbled together 45 wins, the Nets can definitely pull out 50.

However, to get to the real headscratcher, I went next-level nerdy and added up the wins. The total wins is 1280.8 but there are only 1230 wins to go around, which means the list overestimates wins. Even with overestimation of wins, the Heat and Nets are STILL (imo) undervalued in terms of wins. Point is, don't expect 10 western conference teams to end up above .500. That, or Phoenix might end up with -10 wins on the year.

I tried to find some text to go with that chart. It's not clear to me who created it. Maybe it's a work in progress. It doesn't precisely match other projections I see on WoW.

nuposse04 · Post #276 » by **nuposse04** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 2:17 am

51 and we'll win a playoff game before the redskins.

Post #277 » by **montestewart** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 2:28 am

nuposse04 wrote:51 and we'll win a playoff game before the redskins.

That's some bold talk, but it would be pretty cool. I'm persuaded by nate33's view, and I'm going to wait a little and see what happens in preseason before I decide to downgrade from 44.

nuposse04 · Post #278 » by **nuposse04** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 2:40 am

montestewart wrote:
nuposse04 wrote:51 and we'll win a playoff game before the redskins.

That's some bold talk, but it would be pretty cool. I'm persuaded by nate33's view, and I'm going to wait a little and see what happens in preseason before I decide to downgrade from 44.

well I originally said 50...which is total homer talk, and while I think the emeka loss is significant depth wise...the blind fan in me has to believe in some irrational hope, and that hope is that Seraphin averages 10+ rebounds per 36 this season. I mean I'm probably a younger fan on here, been watching NBA ball for about 15 of 25 years of life and have allotted 14 of those years to this soul sucking franchise. Logic probably says my prediction is bull ****, but logic would also ask me why I root for the wizards. :lol:

Even if they do end up with like 39 wins this season I still think they win A playoff game (not a series) before the skins win a playoff game. That secondary is atrocious. :evil:

The Consiglieri · Post #279 » by **The Consiglieri** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 3:28 am

Last season I think I ended up going with 32 or 33, and we won 29. This year I was projecting 45-48 wins before the injuries started piling up. Now we lack depth and talent in the front court, while having some interesting options in the back court. I suspect overall the team will be better than last year if Wall, Beal and Nene can stay healthy, none were able to last year, and as such, were a 29 win squad. Subtract Oka, but add healthy Beal, Wall, and Nene, and the wins should uptick, but how much? I suspect the squad will have a ceiling total of about 42, a floor of about 30, and I'd project about 37 wins. We'll see how it plays out. I'm curious. I believe we blew the offseason with the Porter pick, and the Webster overpay, but managed to land Glen Rice Jr which was a huge value get in the early 2nd round (potential top 10-15 talent from that draft) in my view.

So I'm going with 37-45 for now, and slotting in at 8th-10th in the conference, projecting us to pick somewhere between 11th and 14th overall, and considering the depth and talent in the draft, that would be like picking top 5-8 this past year, maybe 4-6.

closg00 · Post #280 » by **closg00** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 7:06 pm

Jan Vesely appears set to be the first player to replace Okafor in the starting lineup alongside Nene, but Kevin Seraphin will also get ample opportunities. Trevor Booker has gradually increased his workload but remains doubtful for Tuesday’s preseason opener against Brooklyn.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... k-in-neck/

For your consideration when making your predictions.