People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind?

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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#261 » by JordansBulls » Sun Sep 18, 2022 4:11 am

OhayoKD wrote:
ceiling raiser wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:I really try and stay out of the Jordan and Lebron pissing matches, but I think people are lying to themselves if they say "nothing" would really change their minds. Like, a huge part of Lebron's "GOAT" case is the plethora of lineup data we have for his entire career showing he basically had Top-5 all-time "impact". Hell, KG's entire case as a Top-15 guy is based on RAPM and overall impact data. You're telling me that if we had reliable lineup data for Jordan's peak years ('87-'93) that confirmed the eye test and showed he basically had something like peak KG/Curry level impact (+20 on/off), that it wouldn't have you revaluate (assuming he's not already your clear GOAT)? I'd argue at that point you're just letting your bias cloud any sort of objective analysis.

So this was exactly my point. I don’t have LeBron as the GOAT by a mile but I have him as a candidate (along with Duncan), and have Curry/KG in my top ten.

I think in order to be logically consistent, one would need to have MJ as GOAT if his RAPM was Curry level or higher, with an exception for people who heavily weight longevity outside of MVP/All-NBA First Team caliber seasons.

Ben’s data doesn’t seem to suggest MJ was an outlier in the PS, but neither was Shaq. If we have a large sample of RAPM showing MJ is on that highest echelon *and* he had amazing defensive impact I think he is the GOAT for me.

Obviously Russell, Wilt, Kareem will always be question marks but I don’t think we can patch together stint data/PbP for them, plus there aren’t enough games available to track. I do think for MJ and *possibly* Magic, Bird, Hakeem, Shaq, Robinson, the potential does exist.

How does having an rapm comparable to a non-goat get you to goat status? (also we have some of jordan's rapm and it doesn't really say goat)

Lebron lost with HCA to Dwight Howard a career loser. He also only won 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him. Jordan turned a franchise that never won into a dynasty. Lebron winning 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him is like Dirk winning for Dallas.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#262 » by 70sFan » Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:15 am

Ben Taylor has Russell below Jordan and has MJ as the best peak ever.

We don't have any RAPM data for Russell.

Yeah, my analysis is all about Taylor and RAPM. It's literally impossible that I watch and track games myself. It's not like that I actually know what Ewing's post repertoire is, because I break down post players skillset either.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#263 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:47 am

JordansBulls wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:How does having an rapm comparable to a non-goat get you to goat status? (also we have some of jordan's rapm and it doesn't really say goat)

Lebron lost with HCA to Dwight Howard a career loser. He also only won 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him. Jordan turned a franchise that never won into a dynasty. Lebron winning 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him is like Dirk winning for Dallas.

Jordan never won anything before Scottie Pippen. Never came close to a title without Phil Jackson or without a roster handpicked by Jerry Krause. Only ever won with one franchise (embarrassing).

Tim Duncan led title teams for one franchise and one coach but on distinct rosters. Bill Russell led title teams for one franchise but on distinct rosters and while acting as his own coach for two of the titles (Jordan could never). Wilt led title teams for two distinct franchises, rosters, and coaches. Shaq led title teams for one franchise, roster, and coach, then costarred on another title team with a distinct franchise, roster, and coach, and also led a third distinct franchise, roster, and coach to a Finals. Kareem led title teams for two distinct franchises and rosters, across three distinct coaches. And Lebron James, the true GOAT, led title teams with three distinct franchises, coaches, and essentially rosters (shoutout J.R. and James Jones), plus two extra Final appearances with a fourth and fifth distinct coach.

Imagine only being able to win with a single costar and coach and franchise. Pretty sad if you ask me. Real winners prove themselves in different situations. Lebron knows this. Tom Brady knows this. But Jordan? Preferred to take the easy and familiar route the entire time.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#264 » by keynote » Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:22 pm

Jordan's poor leadership and interpersonal skills were a bug, not a feature. Imagine how many more rings he could have won if his antics didn't levy an emotional tax on his team -- and if he didn't force Pip and Phil to carry the emotional burden of cleaning up after him.

We can assess other great players' leadership by how they continue to impact their teammates even after their physical advantages have started to slip. Kareem (my personal GOAT choice) made room for Magic, who acknowledged him as Captain. Duncan made space for Kawhi to shine.

When Jordan was in DC, his lack of leadership skills were on display, since he no longer had the vertical (or a all-time great co-leader) to cover up the inadequacies. As a result, he did silly stuff like trade players for getting one up on him in practice, and hurling homophobic slurs at the team's most valuable young asset. Virtually every young Wizards player from that era except for Rip has decidedly mid things to say about the experience of playing with Mike. And Rip was a member of Jordan brand.

Basketball reveals character. I can't rank Jordan the GOAT. I might be able to look past the anomalous mental health break that other GOAT candidates didn't need, or the overall lack of longevity. I could look past the fact that the Bulls barely broke stride during his mental health sabbatical (they lost two fewer regular season games the next year). I could even leave off-court impact out of it. But the GOAT needs to be an elite leader, and anyone who claims that Jordan was a great leader based on results is ignoring that he might have enjoyed even more team success if he had proper leadership skills.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#265 » by prolific passer » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:29 pm

AEnigma wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:How does having an rapm comparable to a non-goat get you to goat status? (also we have some of jordan's rapm and it doesn't really say goat)

Lebron lost with HCA to Dwight Howard a career loser. He also only won 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him. Jordan turned a franchise that never won into a dynasty. Lebron winning 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him is like Dirk winning for Dallas.

Jordan never won anything before Scottie Pippen. Never came close to a title without Phil Jackson or without a roster handpicked by Jerry Krause. Only ever won with one franchise (embarrassing).

Tim Duncan led title teams for one franchise and one coach but on distinct rosters. Bill Russell led title teams for one franchise but on distinct rosters and while acting as his own coach for two of the titles (Jordan could never). Wilt led title teams for two distinct franchises, rosters, and coaches. Shaq led title teams for one franchise and then costarred on another title team with a distinct franchise, roster, and coach, and also led a third distinct franchise, roster, and coach to a Finals. Kareem led title teams for two distinct franchises and rosters, across three distinct coaches. And Lebron James, the true GOAT, led title teams with three distinct franchises, coaches, and essentially rosters (shoutout J.R. and James Jones), plus two extra Final appearances with a fourth and fifth distinct coach.

Imagine only being able to win with a single costar and coach and franchise. Pretty sad if you ask me. Real winners prove themselves in different situations. Lebron knows this. Tom Brady knows this. But Jordan? Preferred to take the easy and familiar route the entire time.

So turning a franchise that hasn't won into a dynasty is bad but jumping from superteam to superteam to superteam and winning championships is good?
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#266 » by prolific passer » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:35 pm

keynote wrote:Jordan's poor leadership and interpersonal skills were a bug, not a feature. Imagine how many more rings he could have won if his antics didn't levy an emotional tax on his team -- and if he didn't force Pip and Phil to carry the emotional burden of cleaning up after him.

We can assess other great players' leadership by how they continue to impact their teammates even after their physical advantages have started to slip. Kareem (my personal GOAT choice) made room for Magic, who acknowledged him as Captain. Duncan made space for Kawhi to shine.

When Jordan was in DC, his lack of leadership skills were on display, since he no longer had the vertical (or a all-time great co-leader) to cover up the inadequacies. As a result, he did silly stuff like trade players for getting one up on him in practice, and hurling homophobic slurs at the team's most valuable young asset. Virtually every young Wizards player from that era except for Rip has decidedly mid things to say about the experience of playing with Mike. And Rip was a member of Jordan brand.

Basketball reveals character. I can't rank Jordan the GOAT. I might be able to look past the anomalous mental health break that other GOAT candidates didn't need, or the overall lack of longevity. I could look past the fact that the Bulls barely broke stride during his mental health sabbatical (they lost two fewer regular season games the next year). I could even leave off-court impact out of it. But the GOAT needs to be an elite leader, and anyone who claims that Jordan was a great leader based on results is ignoring that he might have enjoyed even more team success if he had proper leadership skills.

I mean Bird had hof center in Dave Cowens when he joined the celtics. Magic had hof center in Kareem when he joined the Lakers. Both guys were mvps and champions. Jordan went to a team that didn't have somebody of that caliber. His best teammate at the time was Woolridge.
Always wonder what would have happened if the bulls still had Artis when they drafted Jordan.

Also Jordan's leadership style isnt that much different then Russell, Magic, and Bird before him who were hard on their teammates. They all wanted to win and felt they had to push their teammates to close to their level to help them win.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#267 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:41 pm

No one person creates a dynasty, and the guy who was the closest to making that true was Bill Russell.

How do we define “superteam”. We had no shortage of sample of what the “superteam” Cavaliers look like without Lebron (and both Kyrie and Love have basically failed to do anything of note without Lebron). We also know what Davis and the Lakers look like without Lebron. The Heat without Lebron fare better, but even then, are they really that much more than what the Bulls looked like when Jordan left? What exactly is a Wade/Bosh team achieving?

Superteams should not be about how many players you have capable of hitting a certain points threshold, and even if they were, the redundancies of that approach at this point should be obvious.

Who cares about franchise status. Is Giannis worth less because Kareem won a title with the Bucks first? Is Curry worth less because of Rick Barry? Is whoever breaks the Knicks’ streak worth less because of Frazier and Reed? Why is Jordan worth more because the 1975 Bulls fell just barely short? Why is the 2020 Lakers title viewed in light of what they did preceding a decade of utter incompetence? That approach to sports is a meme, not anything real.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#268 » by homecourtloss » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:51 pm

keynote wrote:Jordan's poor leadership and interpersonal skills were a bug, not a feature. Imagine how many more rings he could have won if his antics didn't levy an emotional tax on his team -- and if he didn't force Pip and Phil to carry the emotional burden of cleaning up after him.

We can assess other great players' leadership by how they continue to impact their teammates even after their physical advantages have started to slip. Kareem (my personal GOAT choice) made room for Magic, who acknowledged him as Captain. Duncan made space for Kawhi to shine.

When Jordan was in DC, his lack of leadership skills were on display, since he no longer had the vertical (or a all-time great co-leader) to cover up the inadequacies. As a result, he did silly stuff like trade players for getting one up on him in practice, and hurling homophobic slurs at the team's most valuable young asset. Virtually every young Wizards player from that era except for Rip has decidedly mid things to say about the experience of playing with Mike. And Rip was a member of Jordan brand.

Basketball reveals character. I can't rank Jordan the GOAT. I might be able to look past the anomalous mental health break that other GOAT candidates didn't need, or the overall lack of longevity. I could look past the fact that the Bulls barely broke stride during his mental health sabbatical (they lost two fewer regular season games the next year). I could even leave off-court impact out of it. But the GOAT needs to be an elite leader, and anyone who claims that Jordan was a great leader based on results is ignoring that he might have enjoyed even more team success if he had proper leadership skills.


For a player lauded for ultimate skill, he didn’t expand his game in any meaningful way to deal with lost athleticism.

For a player who is supposed to be all brute for e and lack skill and “footwork,” LeBron sure has added to his game as he’s lost athleticism.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#269 » by LukaTheGOAT » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:13 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
keynote wrote:Jordan's poor leadership and interpersonal skills were a bug, not a feature. Imagine how many more rings he could have won if his antics didn't levy an emotional tax on his team -- and if he didn't force Pip and Phil to carry the emotional burden of cleaning up after him.

We can assess other great players' leadership by how they continue to impact their teammates even after their physical advantages have started to slip. Kareem (my personal GOAT choice) made room for Magic, who acknowledged him as Captain. Duncan made space for Kawhi to shine.

When Jordan was in DC, his lack of leadership skills were on display, since he no longer had the vertical (or a all-time great co-leader) to cover up the inadequacies. As a result, he did silly stuff like trade players for getting one up on him in practice, and hurling homophobic slurs at the team's most valuable young asset. Virtually every young Wizards player from that era except for Rip has decidedly mid things to say about the experience of playing with Mike. And Rip was a member of Jordan brand.

Basketball reveals character. I can't rank Jordan the GOAT. I might be able to look past the anomalous mental health break that other GOAT candidates didn't need, or the overall lack of longevity. I could look past the fact that the Bulls barely broke stride during his mental health sabbatical (they lost two fewer regular season games the next year). I could even leave off-court impact out of it. But the GOAT needs to be an elite leader, and anyone who claims that Jordan was a great leader based on results is ignoring that he might have enjoyed even more team success if he had proper leadership skills.


For a player lauded for ultimate skill, he didn’t expand his game in any meaningful way to deal with lost athleticism.

For a player who is supposed to be all brute for e and lack skill and “footwork,” LeBron sure has added to his game as he’s lost athleticism.


I suppose MJ didn't put on some pounds and resorted to going more in the post, to make up for his athleticism decline. I also think that his stamina was pretty unreal to be so good defensively, well into his 30's. His decision-making on when to go for steals was arguably better later on when he was older. This developments are fine, but I suppose maybe you might want a little more out of him depending on your expectations of him.

You bring up Lebron, and I fine this revelation kind of cool.

Read on Twitter


Spoiler Alert: Here is the answer to the trivia

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I certainly think Lebron made more improvements to the versatility of his offensive end throughout his career than Jordan (although I guess you could argue he was more raw at some points and therefore more easily had room to grow), although maybe Jordan's training regimen allowed him to keep up his stamina so well later into his career?
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#270 » by LukaTheGOAT » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:18 pm

AEnigma wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:How does having an rapm comparable to a non-goat get you to goat status? (also we have some of jordan's rapm and it doesn't really say goat)

Lebron lost with HCA to Dwight Howard a career loser. He also only won 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him. Jordan turned a franchise that never won into a dynasty. Lebron winning 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him is like Dirk winning for Dallas.

Jordan never won anything before Scottie Pippen. Never came close to a title without Phil Jackson or without a roster handpicked by Jerry Krause. Only ever won with one franchise (embarrassing).

Tim Duncan led title teams for one franchise and one coach but on distinct rosters. Bill Russell led title teams for one franchise but on distinct rosters and while acting as his own coach for two of the titles (Jordan could never). Wilt led title teams for two distinct franchises, rosters, and coaches. Shaq led title teams for one franchise and then costarred on another title team with a distinct franchise, roster, and coach, and also led a third distinct franchise, roster, and coach to a Finals. Kareem led title teams for two distinct franchises and rosters, across three distinct coaches. And Lebron James, the true GOAT, led title teams with three distinct franchises, coaches, and essentially rosters (shoutout J.R. and James Jones), plus two extra Final appearances with a fourth and fifth distinct coach.

Imagine only being able to win with a single costar and coach and franchise. Pretty sad if you ask me. Real winners prove themselves in different situations. Lebron knows this. Tom Brady knows this. But Jordan? Preferred to take the easy and familiar route the entire time.


An answer to the question of how many titles would Jordan have won without Pippen, by Ben Taylor on Quora

"OK, let’s get nerdy. (My version of Get Schwifty.)

The most likely number of championships without Pippen would be one.

How did I arrive at that number?

Well, the Bulls never eclipsed a 4-SRS (schedule adjusted point-differential) before the 1991 breakthrough, in which Phil Jackson’s system took hold, and Pippen and Grant came into their own. Let’s say we’re generous and we think that, without Pippen, the Bulls would still improve in 1991, perhaps to a 5 SRS team, 3.5 points off their actual number of 8.5.

5-SRS teams (55-win pace) rarely win titles. Since Jordan came into the league, 4 to 5 SRS teams have won a title 8% of the time. If they played at this level for three years, their odds of winning at least one title would only be 23%.

Before First Retirement

Based on actual SRS, the expected number of championships with Pippen from 91–93 was 1.3, and using our assumptions without Pippen, that number would drop to 0.45.

After First Retirement

After baseball, the Bulls were even more dominant relative to the rest of the league. The ’98 Bulls played 33 games without Pippen and were a 6 SRS team. They were by all accounts weaker than the previous two teams, so let’s give one of those teams a 7 SRS and another one an 8. (If Pippen played for another contender, these numbers would drop.)

Those teams would be expected to win 0.88 titles in those three years, with a 66% chance to claim at least one.

Putting it Together

All told, here’s how the numbers stack up:

6 years with Pippen — ~ expected titles based on SRS = 3.9
6 years w/out Pippen — ~ expected titles based on assumed SRS = 1.1
With a 74% chance of at least one title.

Now, I’m too lazy to go super nerdy and calculate the specific odds based on each team that season, where the Bulls would be seeded in the East, etc., but I think this is a good ballpark figure for Chicago’s expected titles without Scottie.

Chicago exceeded expectations by winning 6 instead of 4 (batting 1.000 always exceeds expectations). So could Chicago have exceeded expectations without Pippen? Of course. But I think the most accurate guess is one title. If Jordan played in 94 and 95, the number would be closer to two."

-Ben Taylor's thoughts

https://www.quora.com/How-many-championships-would-Jordan-have-if-Pippen-were-on-another-team
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#271 » by Stalwart » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:33 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:Lebron lost with HCA to Dwight Howard a career loser. He also only won 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him. Jordan turned a franchise that never won into a dynasty. Lebron winning 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him is like Dirk winning for Dallas.

Jordan never won anything before Scottie Pippen. Never came close to a title without Phil Jackson or without a roster handpicked by Jerry Krause. Only ever won with one franchise (embarrassing).

Tim Duncan led title teams for one franchise and one coach but on distinct rosters. Bill Russell led title teams for one franchise but on distinct rosters and while acting as his own coach for two of the titles (Jordan could never). Wilt led title teams for two distinct franchises, rosters, and coaches. Shaq led title teams for one franchise and then costarred on another title team with a distinct franchise, roster, and coach, and also led a third distinct franchise, roster, and coach to a Finals. Kareem led title teams for two distinct franchises and rosters, across three distinct coaches. And Lebron James, the true GOAT, led title teams with three distinct franchises, coaches, and essentially rosters (shoutout J.R. and James Jones), plus two extra Final appearances with a fourth and fifth distinct coach.

Imagine only being able to win with a single costar and coach and franchise. Pretty sad if you ask me. Real winners prove themselves in different situations. Lebron knows this. Tom Brady knows this. But Jordan? Preferred to take the easy and familiar route the entire time.


An answer to the question of how many titles would Jordan have won without Pippen, by Ben Taylor on Quora

"OK, let’s get nerdy. (My version of Get Schwifty.)

The most likely number of championships without Pippen would be one.

How did I arrive at that number?

Well, the Bulls never eclipsed a 4-SRS (schedule adjusted point-differential) before the 1991 breakthrough, in which Phil Jackson’s system took hold, and Pippen and Grant came into their own. Let’s say we’re generous and we think that, without Pippen, the Bulls would still improve in 1991, perhaps to a 5 SRS team, 3.5 points off their actual number of 8.5.

5-SRS teams (55-win pace) rarely win titles. Since Jordan came into the league, 4 to 5 SRS teams have won a title 8% of the time. If they played at this level for three years, their odds of winning at least one title would only be 23%.

Before First Retirement

Based on actual SRS, the expected number of championships with Pippen from 91–93 was 1.3, and using our assumptions without Pippen, that number would drop to 0.45.

After First Retirement

After baseball, the Bulls were even more dominant relative to the rest of the league. The ’98 Bulls played 33 games without Pippen and were a 6 SRS team. They were by all accounts weaker than the previous two teams, so let’s give one of those teams a 7 SRS and another one an 8. (If Pippen played for another contender, these numbers would drop.)

Those teams would be expected to win 0.88 titles in those three years, with a 66% chance to claim at least one.

Putting it Together

All told, here’s how the numbers stack up:

6 years with Pippen — ~ expected titles based on SRS = 3.9
6 years w/out Pippen — ~ expected titles based on assumed SRS = 1.1
With a 74% chance of at least one title.

Now, I’m too lazy to go super nerdy and calculate the specific odds based on each team that season, where the Bulls would be seeded in the East, etc., but I think this is a good ballpark figure for Chicago’s expected titles without Scottie.

Chicago exceeded expectations by winning 6 instead of 4 (batting 1.000 always exceeds expectations). So could Chicago have exceeded expectations without Pippen? Of course. But I think the most accurate guess is one title. If Jordan played in 94 and 95, the number would be closer to two."

-Ben Taylor's thoughts

https://www.quora.com/How-many-championships-would-Jordan-have-if-Pippen-were-on-another-team


Does Ben Taylor have any thoughts on how many titles Lebron would win without Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis?

Or Bill Russell without Bob Cousy, Sam Jones, Tom Heinsohn, John Havlicek, Bill Sharman, Bailey Howell, Frank Ramsey, and KC Jones?
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#272 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:50 pm

Stalwart wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Jordan never won anything before Scottie Pippen. Never came close to a title without Phil Jackson or without a roster handpicked by Jerry Krause. Only ever won with one franchise (embarrassing).

Tim Duncan led title teams for one franchise and one coach but on distinct rosters. Bill Russell led title teams for one franchise but on distinct rosters and while acting as his own coach for two of the titles (Jordan could never). Wilt led title teams for two distinct franchises, rosters, and coaches. Shaq led title teams for one franchise and then costarred on another title team with a distinct franchise, roster, and coach, and also led a third distinct franchise, roster, and coach to a Finals. Kareem led title teams for two distinct franchises and rosters, across three distinct coaches. And Lebron James, the true GOAT, led title teams with three distinct franchises, coaches, and essentially rosters (shoutout J.R. and James Jones), plus two extra Final appearances with a fourth and fifth distinct coach.

Imagine only being able to win with a single costar and coach and franchise. Pretty sad if you ask me. Real winners prove themselves in different situations. Lebron knows this. Tom Brady knows this. But Jordan? Preferred to take the easy and familiar route the entire time.

An answer to the question of how many titles would Jordan have won without Pippen, by Ben Taylor on Quora

"OK, let’s get nerdy. (My version of Get Schwifty.)

The most likely number of championships without Pippen would be one.

How did I arrive at that number?

Well, the Bulls never eclipsed a 4-SRS (schedule adjusted point-differential) before the 1991 breakthrough, in which Phil Jackson’s system took hold, and Pippen and Grant came into their own. Let’s say we’re generous and we think that, without Pippen, the Bulls would still improve in 1991, perhaps to a 5 SRS team, 3.5 points off their actual number of 8.5.

5-SRS teams (55-win pace) rarely win titles. Since Jordan came into the league, 4 to 5 SRS teams have won a title 8% of the time. If they played at this level for three years, their odds of winning at least one title would only be 23%.

Before First Retirement

Based on actual SRS, the expected number of championships with Pippen from 91–93 was 1.3, and using our assumptions without Pippen, that number would drop to 0.45.

After First Retirement

After baseball, the Bulls were even more dominant relative to the rest of the league. The ’98 Bulls played 33 games without Pippen and were a 6 SRS team. They were by all accounts weaker than the previous two teams, so let’s give one of those teams a 7 SRS and another one an 8. (If Pippen played for another contender, these numbers would drop.)

Those teams would be expected to win 0.88 titles in those three years, with a 66% chance to claim at least one.

Putting it Together

All told, here’s how the numbers stack up:

6 years with Pippen — ~ expected titles based on SRS = 3.9
6 years w/out Pippen — ~ expected titles based on assumed SRS = 1.1
With a 74% chance of at least one title.

Now, I’m too lazy to go super nerdy and calculate the specific odds based on each team that season, where the Bulls would be seeded in the East, etc., but I think this is a good ballpark figure for Chicago’s expected titles without Scottie.

Chicago exceeded expectations by winning 6 instead of 4 (batting 1.000 always exceeds expectations). So could Chicago have exceeded expectations without Pippen? Of course. But I think the most accurate guess is one title. If Jordan played in 94 and 95, the number would be closer to two."

-Ben Taylor's thoughts

https://www.quora.com/How-many-championships-would-Jordan-have-if-Pippen-were-on-another-team

Does Ben Taylor have any thoughts on how many titles Lebron would win without Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis?

Or Bill Russell without Bob Cousy, Sam Jones, Tom Heinsohn, John Havlicek, Bill Sharman, Bailey Howell, Frank Ramsey, and KC Jones?

Wow, Pippen is equivalent to all those guys at once? Sounds like we have been underrating him.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#273 » by capfan33 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:10 pm

prolific passer wrote:
keynote wrote:Jordan's poor leadership and interpersonal skills were a bug, not a feature. Imagine how many more rings he could have won if his antics didn't levy an emotional tax on his team -- and if he didn't force Pip and Phil to carry the emotional burden of cleaning up after him.

We can assess other great players' leadership by how they continue to impact their teammates even after their physical advantages have started to slip. Kareem (my personal GOAT choice) made room for Magic, who acknowledged him as Captain. Duncan made space for Kawhi to shine.

When Jordan was in DC, his lack of leadership skills were on display, since he no longer had the vertical (or a all-time great co-leader) to cover up the inadequacies. As a result, he did silly stuff like trade players for getting one up on him in practice, and hurling homophobic slurs at the team's most valuable young asset. Virtually every young Wizards player from that era except for Rip has decidedly mid things to say about the experience of playing with Mike. And Rip was a member of Jordan brand.

Basketball reveals character. I can't rank Jordan the GOAT. I might be able to look past the anomalous mental health break that other GOAT candidates didn't need, or the overall lack of longevity. I could look past the fact that the Bulls barely broke stride during his mental health sabbatical (they lost two fewer regular season games the next year). I could even leave off-court impact out of it. But the GOAT needs to be an elite leader, and anyone who claims that Jordan was a great leader based on results is ignoring that he might have enjoyed even more team success if he had proper leadership skills.

I mean Bird had hof center in Dave Cowens when he joined the celtics. Magic had hof center in Kareem when he joined the Lakers. Both guys were mvps and champions. Jordan went to a team that didn't have somebody of that caliber. His best teammate at the time was Woolridge.
Always wonder what would have happened if the bulls still had Artis when they drafted Jordan.

Also Jordan's leadership style isnt that much different then Russell, Magic, and Bird before him who were hard on their teammates. They all wanted to win and felt they had to push their teammates to close to their level to help them win.


Someone else here who knows more than me could respond to this better, but from everything I know, it was pretty different lol. Even if you consider Jordan the GOAT, doesn't mean he has to be the best at everything or even a lot of things. Bird and Russell specifically were friends with many of their teamamtes and rarely acted as caustically as Jordan did to his. I honestly don't think this is debatable.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#274 » by Antinomy » Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:37 pm

My problem with Jordan is that so much of his success was tied to Scottie Pippen.

People don’t realize that he never won a playoff series without Scottie NOR did he ever have a winning season above .500

Lots of weird stuff there.

Every other GOAT candidate was able to come in & lead less-than-stellar casts to high levels.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#275 » by Stalwart » Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:52 pm

AEnigma wrote:
Stalwart wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:An answer to the question of how many titles would Jordan have won without Pippen, by Ben Taylor on Quora

"OK, let’s get nerdy. (My version of Get Schwifty.)

The most likely number of championships without Pippen would be one.

How did I arrive at that number?

Well, the Bulls never eclipsed a 4-SRS (schedule adjusted point-differential) before the 1991 breakthrough, in which Phil Jackson’s system took hold, and Pippen and Grant came into their own. Let’s say we’re generous and we think that, without Pippen, the Bulls would still improve in 1991, perhaps to a 5 SRS team, 3.5 points off their actual number of 8.5.

5-SRS teams (55-win pace) rarely win titles. Since Jordan came into the league, 4 to 5 SRS teams have won a title 8% of the time. If they played at this level for three years, their odds of winning at least one title would only be 23%.

Before First Retirement

Based on actual SRS, the expected number of championships with Pippen from 91–93 was 1.3, and using our assumptions without Pippen, that number would drop to 0.45.

After First Retirement

After baseball, the Bulls were even more dominant relative to the rest of the league. The ’98 Bulls played 33 games without Pippen and were a 6 SRS team. They were by all accounts weaker than the previous two teams, so let’s give one of those teams a 7 SRS and another one an 8. (If Pippen played for another contender, these numbers would drop.)

Those teams would be expected to win 0.88 titles in those three years, with a 66% chance to claim at least one.

Putting it Together

All told, here’s how the numbers stack up:

6 years with Pippen — ~ expected titles based on SRS = 3.9
6 years w/out Pippen — ~ expected titles based on assumed SRS = 1.1
With a 74% chance of at least one title.

Now, I’m too lazy to go super nerdy and calculate the specific odds based on each team that season, where the Bulls would be seeded in the East, etc., but I think this is a good ballpark figure for Chicago’s expected titles without Scottie.

Chicago exceeded expectations by winning 6 instead of 4 (batting 1.000 always exceeds expectations). So could Chicago have exceeded expectations without Pippen? Of course. But I think the most accurate guess is one title. If Jordan played in 94 and 95, the number would be closer to two."

-Ben Taylor's thoughts

https://www.quora.com/How-many-championships-would-Jordan-have-if-Pippen-were-on-another-team

Does Ben Taylor have any thoughts on how many titles Lebron would win without Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis?

Or Bill Russell without Bob Cousy, Sam Jones, Tom Heinsohn, John Havlicek, Bill Sharman, Bailey Howell, Frank Ramsey, and KC Jones?

Wow, Pippen is equivalent to all those guys at once? Sounds like we have been underrating him.


What a strange interpretation
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#276 » by Stalwart » Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:53 pm

capfan33 wrote:
prolific passer wrote:
keynote wrote:Jordan's poor leadership and interpersonal skills were a bug, not a feature. Imagine how many more rings he could have won if his antics didn't levy an emotional tax on his team -- and if he didn't force Pip and Phil to carry the emotional burden of cleaning up after him.

We can assess other great players' leadership by how they continue to impact their teammates even after their physical advantages have started to slip. Kareem (my personal GOAT choice) made room for Magic, who acknowledged him as Captain. Duncan made space for Kawhi to shine.

When Jordan was in DC, his lack of leadership skills were on display, since he no longer had the vertical (or a all-time great co-leader) to cover up the inadequacies. As a result, he did silly stuff like trade players for getting one up on him in practice, and hurling homophobic slurs at the team's most valuable young asset. Virtually every young Wizards player from that era except for Rip has decidedly mid things to say about the experience of playing with Mike. And Rip was a member of Jordan brand.

Basketball reveals character. I can't rank Jordan the GOAT. I might be able to look past the anomalous mental health break that other GOAT candidates didn't need, or the overall lack of longevity. I could look past the fact that the Bulls barely broke stride during his mental health sabbatical (they lost two fewer regular season games the next year). I could even leave off-court impact out of it. But the GOAT needs to be an elite leader, and anyone who claims that Jordan was a great leader based on results is ignoring that he might have enjoyed even more team success if he had proper leadership skills.

I mean Bird had hof center in Dave Cowens when he joined the celtics. Magic had hof center in Kareem when he joined the Lakers. Both guys were mvps and champions. Jordan went to a team that didn't have somebody of that caliber. His best teammate at the time was Woolridge.
Always wonder what would have happened if the bulls still had Artis when they drafted Jordan.

Also Jordan's leadership style isnt that much different then Russell, Magic, and Bird before him who were hard on their teammates. They all wanted to win and felt they had to push their teammates to close to their level to help them win.


Someone else here who knows more than me could respond to this better, but from everything I know, it was pretty different lol. Even if you consider Jordan the GOAT, doesn't mean he has to be the best at everything or even a lot of things. Bird and Russell specifically were friends with many of their teamamtes and rarely acted as caustically as Jordan did to his. I honestly don't think this is debatable.


I don't think this how you measure leadership lol. Thats the problem. You guys think leadership = friendship or lack of conflict. Thats not at all what leadership is. Leadership is measured by your ability to direct a path others will follow. You get bonus points when you can inspire and bring the most out of those following. Sometimes that actually requires conflict and unpleasantries. In fact the first thing a good leader knows is that its not your job to make friends and you're not always going to be liked or appreciated.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#277 » by AEnigma » Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:01 am

Stalwart wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
Stalwart wrote:Does Ben Taylor have any thoughts on how many titles Lebron would win without Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis?

Or Bill Russell without Bob Cousy, Sam Jones, Tom Heinsohn, John Havlicek, Bill Sharman, Bailey Howell, Frank Ramsey, and KC Jones?

Wow, Pippen is equivalent to all those guys at once? Sounds like we have been underrating him.

What a strange interpretation

What a strange use of “and”.

I don't think this how you measure leadership lol. Thats the problem. You guys think leadership = friendship or lack of conflict. Thats not at all what leadership is. Leadership is measured by your ability to direct a path others will follow. You get bonus points when you can inspire and bring the most out of those following. Sometimes that actually requires conflict and unpleasantries.

Yeah, we know Phil Jackson was a great leader, what is your point?
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#278 » by Stalwart » Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:09 am

AEnigma wrote:
Stalwart wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Wow, Pippen is equivalent to all those guys at once? Sounds like we have been underrating him.

What a strange interpretation

What a strange use of “and”.


That was just a really weird response that didn't even make sense. That's all.

Yeah, we know Phil Jackson was a great leader, what is your point?


Again, a weird response that doesn't make sense.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#279 » by LukaTheGOAT » Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:23 am

Stalwart wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Jordan never won anything before Scottie Pippen. Never came close to a title without Phil Jackson or without a roster handpicked by Jerry Krause. Only ever won with one franchise (embarrassing).

Tim Duncan led title teams for one franchise and one coach but on distinct rosters. Bill Russell led title teams for one franchise but on distinct rosters and while acting as his own coach for two of the titles (Jordan could never). Wilt led title teams for two distinct franchises, rosters, and coaches. Shaq led title teams for one franchise and then costarred on another title team with a distinct franchise, roster, and coach, and also led a third distinct franchise, roster, and coach to a Finals. Kareem led title teams for two distinct franchises and rosters, across three distinct coaches. And Lebron James, the true GOAT, led title teams with three distinct franchises, coaches, and essentially rosters (shoutout J.R. and James Jones), plus two extra Final appearances with a fourth and fifth distinct coach.

Imagine only being able to win with a single costar and coach and franchise. Pretty sad if you ask me. Real winners prove themselves in different situations. Lebron knows this. Tom Brady knows this. But Jordan? Preferred to take the easy and familiar route the entire time.


An answer to the question of how many titles would Jordan have won without Pippen, by Ben Taylor on Quora

"OK, let’s get nerdy. (My version of Get Schwifty.)

The most likely number of championships without Pippen would be one.

How did I arrive at that number?

Well, the Bulls never eclipsed a 4-SRS (schedule adjusted point-differential) before the 1991 breakthrough, in which Phil Jackson’s system took hold, and Pippen and Grant came into their own. Let’s say we’re generous and we think that, without Pippen, the Bulls would still improve in 1991, perhaps to a 5 SRS team, 3.5 points off their actual number of 8.5.

5-SRS teams (55-win pace) rarely win titles. Since Jordan came into the league, 4 to 5 SRS teams have won a title 8% of the time. If they played at this level for three years, their odds of winning at least one title would only be 23%.

Before First Retirement

Based on actual SRS, the expected number of championships with Pippen from 91–93 was 1.3, and using our assumptions without Pippen, that number would drop to 0.45.

After First Retirement

After baseball, the Bulls were even more dominant relative to the rest of the league. The ’98 Bulls played 33 games without Pippen and were a 6 SRS team. They were by all accounts weaker than the previous two teams, so let’s give one of those teams a 7 SRS and another one an 8. (If Pippen played for another contender, these numbers would drop.)

Those teams would be expected to win 0.88 titles in those three years, with a 66% chance to claim at least one.

Putting it Together

All told, here’s how the numbers stack up:

6 years with Pippen — ~ expected titles based on SRS = 3.9
6 years w/out Pippen — ~ expected titles based on assumed SRS = 1.1
With a 74% chance of at least one title.

Now, I’m too lazy to go super nerdy and calculate the specific odds based on each team that season, where the Bulls would be seeded in the East, etc., but I think this is a good ballpark figure for Chicago’s expected titles without Scottie.

Chicago exceeded expectations by winning 6 instead of 4 (batting 1.000 always exceeds expectations). So could Chicago have exceeded expectations without Pippen? Of course. But I think the most accurate guess is one title. If Jordan played in 94 and 95, the number would be closer to two."

-Ben Taylor's thoughts

https://www.quora.com/How-many-championships-would-Jordan-have-if-Pippen-were-on-another-team


Does Ben Taylor have any thoughts on how many titles Lebron would win without Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis?

Or Bill Russell without Bob Cousy, Sam Jones, Tom Heinsohn, John Havlicek, Bill Sharman, Bailey Howell, Frank Ramsey, and KC Jones?


Idk, he just answered this because someone asked. Maybe you should ask him if l you can get into contact with him.
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Re: People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind? 

Post#280 » by AEnigma » Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:44 am

Stalwart wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
Stalwart wrote:What a strange interpretation

What a strange use of “and”.

That was just a really weird response that didn't even make sense. That's all.

Even weirder and less sensible to call the value of one costar equivalent to multiple at once.

Yeah, we know Phil Jackson was a great leader, what is your point?

Again, a weird response that doesn't make sense.

I am sure it makes sense to everyone who recognises actual leadership.

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