Official 2024-2025 Magic General Season Thread I

[eyriq]

Does our recent success prove that Weltman made the right decision at the deadline?

No.

There hasn't been any *actual* recent success. They just had a very soft closing schedule.

They finished 10-4, but they only beat 1 playoff team that was actually playing players (home against the Lakers).

Pre-Deadline (50 games) 29th on offense, 3rd on defense, and 20th overall
Post-Deadline (30 games) 22nd on offense, 2nd on defense, and 14th overall

Total Season 27th on offense, 2nd on defense, and 17th overall

Last Season 22nd on offense, 3rd on defense, and 14th overall

Post trade deadline their offense has been relatively as good as last season, their defense has been relatively better, and they've been relatively the same overall. All without Suggs and Moritz.

[Knightro]

Does our recent success prove that Weltman made the right decision at the deadline?

No.

There hasn't been any *actual* recent success. They just had a very soft closing schedule.

They finished 10-4, but they only beat 1 playoff team that was actually playing players (home against the Lakers).

Pre-Deadline (50 games) 29th on offense, 3rd on defense, and 20th overall
Post-Deadline (30 games) 22nd on offense, 2nd on defense, and 14th overall

Total Season 27th on offense, 2nd on defense, and 17th overall

Last Season 22nd on offense, 3rd on defense, and 14th overall

Post trade deadline their offense has been relatively as good as last season, their defense has been relatively better, and they've been relatively the same overall. All without Suggs and Moritz.

Now do the strength of schedule.

[Knightro]

The Magic went 14-12 after the All-Star break.

But they only played 10 playoff teams (not counting Boston or Indiana in the final week who sat everyone).

They went 3-7 in those games and 11-5 in the 16 games against the non playoff teams and tankers.

Yes, they played better, but it was also a very soft stretch schedule wise.

[eyriq]

No.

There hasn't been any *actual* recent success. They just had a very soft closing schedule.

They finished 10-4, but they only beat 1 playoff team that was actually playing players (home against the Lakers).

Pre-Deadline (50 games) 29th on offense, 3rd on defense, and 20th overall
Post-Deadline (30 games) 22nd on offense, 2nd on defense, and 14th overall

Total Season 27th on offense, 2nd on defense, and 17th overall

Last Season 22nd on offense, 3rd on defense, and 14th overall

Post trade deadline their offense has been relatively as good as last season, their defense has been relatively better, and they've been relatively the same overall. All without Suggs and Moritz.

Now do the strength of schedule.

Pre-deadline we are .462 against the spread
Post-deadline we are .548 against the spread

For the season, including the play-in game, we are .494 against the spread.

Pre-deadline we've been favored by the spread .577 (this reads clunky, but its the percentage of games)
Post-deadline we've been favored by the spread .613

For the season, including the play-in game, we've been favored by the spread .590

Pre-deadline our average spread was -0.36
Post-deadline our average spread was -2.10

For the season, including the play-in game, our average spread has been -1.01

So yes, the schedule has been easier post deadline as reflected by the higher frequency of being favored and the larger average spread. However, we've still overachieved this schedule, beating the spread much more frequently post-deadline than pre-deadline.

[Bensational]

The Magic went 14-12 after the All-Star break.

But they only played 10 playoff teams (not counting Boston or Indiana in the final week who sat everyone).

They went 3-7 in those games and 11-5 in the 16 games against the non playoff teams and tankers.

Yes, they played better, but it was also a very soft stretch schedule wise.

They played a bunch of play-in teams who were all playing competitive games, so lumping them in with tankers probably isn't an accurate reflection of strength of schedule.

5-7 vs eventual play-off teams (MIL, CLE, LAL, BOS, IND -- MEM, CLE, GSW, HOU, MIN, HOU, LAC)
3-3 vs eliminated play-in teams (ATL, SAC, ATL -- CHI, DAL, ATL)
6-2 vs tankers (WAS, NOP, WAS, CHA, SAS, WAS -- TOR, TOR)

8-10 vs teams competing for play-in or play-off seeding, 6-2 vs tankers.

This isn't accounting for who was on rosters and who wasn't, same as previous records don't discount for us winning/losing games against full-strength teams during our injuries.

[eyriq]

Considering that we are 14 point underdogs on Sunday and that I am looking at our performance against the spread, here are the 6 games where we've been double digit underdogs:

Nov 4 OKC, 12.5 point spread, lost by 16
Dec 23 Boston, 10 point spread, won by 4
Jan 6 NYK, 10.5 point spread, won by 9
Jan 17 Boston 14.5 point spread, lost by 27
Mar 14 Minny 11 point spread, lost by 7
Mar 16 Cle 10 point spread, won by 5

[eyriq]

So yes, the post-deadline schedule was softer — no one's arguing that. They were favored more often, by wider margins. But here's the thing: they actually delivered.

Pre-deadline they were covering the spread 46.2% of the time. Post-deadline? 54.8%. That’s not just noise — that’s performance. Especially when you consider the average spread went from -0.36 to -2.10. In plain terms: the market expected more from them post-deadline, and they still outperformed those expectations.

Defensively, they stayed elite. Offensively, they climbed out of the basement and held their own, even without two rotation players.

So if the argument is "they just beat bad teams," the data disagrees. They beat Vegas too — and that’s a lot harder than beating the Wizards.

[pepe1991]

East has 37-45 team in playoffs.
44-38 was enough to grant you direct playoff spot.

On East as long as you can beat bad teams you will end up in playoffs
Pistons have 12-27 vs winning teams and held 6th spot

[jezzerinho]

We could be so much further on as team and everything that has happened this season has just vindicated those ofnus who have felt that for 2+ years.

But we need to park those feeling for a few weeks and get behind the players we have. I pray the the coaches can take these few days to reinforce the good habits of ball movement, rebounding and perimeter defence. All i ask is we make a good account of ourselves.

[Skybox]

We could be so much further on as team and everything that has happened this season has just vindicated those ofnus who have felt that for 2+ years.

But we need to park those feeling for a few weeks and get behind the players we have. I pray the the coaches can take these few days to reinforce the good habits of ball movement, rebounding and perimeter defence. All i ask is we make a good account of ourselves.

Absolutely…in this thread

Next door, I’m trading everyone

[Knightro]

The Magic went 14-12 after the All-Star break.

But they only played 10 playoff teams (not counting Boston or Indiana in the final week who sat everyone).

They went 3-7 in those games and 11-5 in the 16 games against the non playoff teams and tankers.

Yes, they played better, but it was also a very soft stretch schedule wise.

They played a bunch of play-in teams who were all playing competitive games, so lumping them in with tankers probably isn't an accurate reflection of strength of schedule.

5-7 vs eventual play-off teams (MIL, CLE, LAL, BOS, IND -- MEM, CLE, GSW, HOU, MIN, HOU, LAC)
3-3 vs eliminated play-in teams (ATL, SAC, ATL -- CHI, DAL, ATL)
6-2 vs tankers (WAS, NOP, WAS, CHA, SAS, WAS -- TOR, TOR)

8-10 vs teams competing for play-in or play-off seeding, 6-2 vs tankers.

This isn't accounting for who was on rosters and who wasn't, same as previous records don't discount for us winning/losing games against full-strength teams during our injuries.

Sticking Boston and Indiana in there is all you need to know about the validity of this argument. Both of those teams sat their entire starting lineups.

And teams “chasing or eliminated from the play in” aren’t good. Like at all.

[Knightro]

This “they did better against the spread” argument is certainly something…

[jezzerinho]

We could be so much further on as team and everything that has happened this season has just vindicated those ofnus who have felt that for 2+ years.

But we need to park those feeling for a few weeks and get behind the players we have. I pray the the coaches can take these few days to reinforce the good habits of ball movement, rebounding and perimeter defence. All i ask is we make a good account of ourselves.

Absolutely…in this thread

Next door, I’m trading everyone

Death, taxes and the Skybox trade machine.

[eyriq]

This “they did better against the spread” argument is certainly something…

The spread is a proxy for strength schedule. Beating the spread implies doing better than expected given the strength of schedule, under performing the spread implies doing worse than expected, given the strength of schedule. I imagine you know all this and are just being difficult like you always do when you are losing an argument.

[fendilim]

The Magic went 14-12 after the All-Star break.

But they only played 10 playoff teams (not counting Boston or Indiana in the final week who sat everyone).

They went 3-7 in those games and 11-5 in the 16 games against the non playoff teams and tankers.

Yes, they played better, but it was also a very soft stretch schedule wise.

Hard to do rankings like this cause we also missed Paolo and Franz on different parts of the season. Then Jalen and Moritz are dont for the season too.

[Knightro]

The Magic went 14-12 after the All-Star break.

But they only played 10 playoff teams (not counting Boston or Indiana in the final week who sat everyone).

They went 3-7 in those games and 11-5 in the 16 games against the non playoff teams and tankers.

Yes, they played better, but it was also a very soft stretch schedule wise.

Hard to do rankings like this cause we also missed Paolo and Franz on different parts of the season. Then Jalen and Moritz are dont for the season too.

Everyone has injuries. That’s part of the game.

[Knightro]

This “they did better against the spread” argument is certainly something…

The spread is a proxy for strength schedule. Beating the spread implies doing better than expected given the strength of schedule, under performing the spread implies doing worse than expected, given the strength of schedule. I imagine you know all this and are just being difficult like you always do when you are losing an argument.

NBA basketball is a pass/fail business. It’s not like college football or college basketball where *how* you win or lose can impact where you end up in the arbitrary rankings.

Personally I could care less if the Magic were 11 point underdogs in a game and “only” lost by 7.

And using that as justification that things were better is extremely flawed.

But you do you. Everything is great.

[eyriq]

[instagram][/instagram]

This “they did better against the spread” argument is certainly something…

The spread is a proxy for strength schedule. Beating the spread implies doing better than expected given the strength of schedule, under performing the spread implies doing worse than expected, given the strength of schedule. I imagine you know all this and are just being difficult like you always do when you are losing an argument.

NBA basketball is a pass/fail business. It’s not like college football or college basketball where *how* you win or lose can impact where you end up in the arbitrary rankings.

Personally I could care less if the Magic were 11 point underdogs in a game and “only” lost by 7.

And using that as justification that things were better is extremely flawed.

But you do you. Everything is great.

What are you even talking about? I pointed out that the team has played better post-deadline. You challenged me to look at strength of schedule. I used the spread to look at strength of schedule and it highlights that we’ve over performed our strength of schedule. Check mate. Put your fingers in your ears if you want, or be the smart guy you are and adjust your argument to deal with the evidence.

[Knightro]

What are you even talking about? I pointed out that the team has played better post-deadline. You challenged me to look at strength of schedule. I used the spread to look at strength of schedule and it highlights that we’ve over performed our strength of schedule. Check mate. Put your fingers in your ears if you want, or be the smart guy you are and adjust your argument to deal with the evidence.

They played better late in the season because the schedule was very easy post all-star break.

That's it. There's no other explanation.

Suggesting they played "better" than we think because of how they performed against the point spreads is just more of your goofy optimism schtick. You're so ready to try and find anything to make this "BEST YOUNG CORE EVER" thing true that you cite stuff that just means nothing.

"Oh well the Magic were 8.5 point favorites against a tanking Wizards team and they won by 15, clearly they are way better than we thought!"

is complete nonsense.

[eyriq]

What are you even talking about? I pointed out that the team has played better post-deadline. You challenged me to look at strength of schedule. I used the spread to look at strength of schedule and it highlights that we’ve over performed our strength of schedule. Check mate. Put your fingers in your ears if you want, or be the smart guy you are and adjust your argument to deal with the evidence.

They played better late in the season because the schedule was very easy post all-star break.

That's it. There's no other explanation.

Suggesting they played "better" than we think because of how they performed against the point spreads is just more of your goofy optimism schtick. You're so ready to try and find anything good to make this "BEST YOUNG CORE EVER" thing true that you cite stuff that just means nothing.

The best young core argument is already substantiated by the team’s win rate last season relative to other young cores.