Otto Porter Part 2

[closg00]

Otto for MIP next-year, he's on-track.


#FireErnie ~ Because he believed Stephen Curry couldn't help us and Jan Vesely could.

[DCZards]

Yeah we agree. Although I think I'm a little higher on Beal than you. I don't want the team to diminish his role, I want them to continue pushing him. I don't really care about his TS% and PER right now, I want his usage to stay high and I want him to continue playing with a go-to mentality. As a young player, he's in the phase where it's much more important for him to grow his game than it is to put up good efficiency numbers through playing lesser roles.

I think he's going to be that second star you are searching for. I think the talent and the leadership qualities are there and it's just a matter of waiting on him to grow into his potential. I think he could be a borderline All Star that gets in if the team record is really good next season. By his age 23 season, I think he'll be a legitimate All Star. That's about when John made the leap to that level of play. John probably would have made it his age 22 season if he hadn't missed the first half of the year with that injury, but definitely by 23 he was a legit All Star. And by age 24 he was starting.

One thing that's undersold about Beal is the organization's commitment to developing him. It's been 100% commitment since day one, just like it was for John. This is huge for a young super talent. He's gotten to play through his mistakes and has been challenged to grow by a constantly expanding role. The team is pushing him into stardom and he's responded well to it. He's a tough kid with this great edge to him that makes him spectacular when he gets angry and dialed in.

The only thing that I can see holding Beal back is injury. Or if Kevin Durant comes here and drastically reduces Beal's usage and stunts his development. You can't do anything about the first problem. The second problem isn't actually a problem.

Totally agree on Beal. A little over a month ago I said I wanted to see Beal take 18-20 shots per game and stop passing up open shots. I also didn't care match about his efficiency I was more concerned about Beal having the confidence to become a volume shooter for the Zards.

Without checking, I'm guessing that Bradley has averaged 16-18 shots over the last month plus and while he's had some stinker games during that period I like the overall results. He's also attacking the basket with more frequency and his passing and rebounding remains solid.

Like you, I too see Beal becoming a borderline all-star once he matures mentally and physically.

Edit to add: Why does it seem that every time the Zards have two good players we start the "who's better or more valuable or who would you trade debate"? Some of us did it with Beal vs Wall and now some here are doing it with Beal vs Porter. Can't we just be happy with what we have?

[TheSecretWeapon]

When does this stop being a small sample size?

Finals, maybe.

Usually, we look at 500 minutes as the cutoff point. Porter is at 233 in the playoffs so far.

[dobrojim]

Yeah we agree. Although I think I'm a little higher on Beal than you. I don't want the team to diminish his role, I want them to continue pushing him. I don't really care about his TS% and PER right now, I want his usage to stay high and I want him to continue playing with a go-to mentality. As a young player, he's in the phase where it's much more important for him to grow his game than it is to put up good efficiency numbers through playing lesser roles.

I think he's going to be that second star you are searching for. I think the talent and the leadership qualities are there and it's just a matter of waiting on him to grow into his potential. I think he could be a borderline All Star that gets in if the team record is really good next season. By his age 23 season, I think he'll be a legitimate All Star. That's about when John made the leap to that level of play. John probably would have made it his age 22 season if he hadn't missed the first half of the year with that injury, but definitely by 23 he was a legit All Star. And by age 24 he was starting.

One thing that's undersold about Beal is the organization's commitment to developing him. It's been 100% commitment since day one, just like it was for John. This is huge for a young super talent. He's gotten to play through his mistakes and has been challenged to grow by a constantly expanding role. The team is pushing him into stardom and he's responded well to it. He's a tough kid with this great edge to him that makes him spectacular when he gets angry and dialed in.

The only thing that I can see holding Beal back is injury. Or if Kevin Durant comes here and drastically reduces Beal's usage and stunts his development. You can't do anything about the first problem. The second problem isn't actually a problem.

Totally agree on Beal. A little over a month ago I said I wanted to see Beal take 18-20 shots per game and stop passing up open shots. I also didn't care match about his efficiency I was more concerned about Beal having the confidence to become a volume shooter for the Zards.

Without checking, I'm guessing that Bradley has averaged 16-18 shots over the last month plus and while he's had some stinker games during that period I like the overall results. He's also attacking the basket with more frequency and his passing and rebounding remains solid.

Like you, I too see Beal becoming a borderline all-star once he matures mentally and physically.

Edit to add: Why does it seem that every time the Zards have two good players we start the "who's better or more valuable or who would you trade debate"? Some of us did it with Beal vs Wall and now some here are doing it with Beal vs Porter. Can't we just be happy with what we have?

Barring an offer we can't refuse, I liking the idea of our team in 3-4 years When Wall is 27-8 and Porter/Beal are 25
with experience.

[nate33]

Yeah we agree. Although I think I'm a little higher on Beal than you. I don't want the team to diminish his role, I want them to continue pushing him. I don't really care about his TS% and PER right now, I want his usage to stay high and I want him to continue playing with a go-to mentality. As a young player, he's in the phase where it's much more important for him to grow his game than it is to put up good efficiency numbers through playing lesser roles.

I think he's going to be that second star you are searching for. I think the talent and the leadership qualities are there and it's just a matter of waiting on him to grow into his potential. I think he could be a borderline All Star that gets in if the team record is really good next season. By his age 23 season, I think he'll be a legitimate All Star. That's about when John made the leap to that level of play. John probably would have made it his age 22 season if he hadn't missed the first half of the year with that injury, but definitely by 23 he was a legit All Star. And by age 24 he was starting.

One thing that's undersold about Beal is the organization's commitment to developing him. It's been 100% commitment since day one, just like it was for John. This is huge for a young super talent. He's gotten to play through his mistakes and has been challenged to grow by a constantly expanding role. The team is pushing him into stardom and he's responded well to it. He's a tough kid with this great edge to him that makes him spectacular when he gets angry and dialed in.

Real good points here, stevemcqueen1.

You have been an enthusiastic supporter of Beal for a long time whereas I have become a bit more skeptical of late. But you make a good argument that forcefeeding Beal shots and asking him to run the offense at times really looks like it's going to pan out very well in the long term, even if it hurts his short term efficiency. Two years ago, Beal could barely even dribble in the face of defensive pressure. Now he's dishing out 8 assists in 3 quarters as the default PG in a playoff game.

[Higga]

Otto for MIP next-year, he's on-track.


#FireErnie ~ Because he believed Stephen Curry couldn't help us and Jan Vesely could.

Replace that I with a V

Kidding of course, but you could argue he's been our best all around player this series. He's hitting open 3s, playing great D, and grabbing tough rebounds.

[Illmatic12]

In fact I could see Otto being not just a good SF but a borderline All-Star on the level of Caron, Luol Deng, guys like that. His offensive ceiling is far above 11-12ppg, it's up to him to put the work in.

I could see this too. One thing that I felt separated Otto from the other young highly talented SFs that came into the league since 2010 was the quality of his scoring instincts. Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Paul George are obviously better overall players than Otto right now. But I don't know that they were better prospects. Each of them had to grow into the role of a volume scorer over time, and I'm still not sure that any of them have scoring instincts as good as Otto's. This was the first season I felt like I saw things start to click for Kawhi and Butler as scorers, and even still, I see a lot of hesitancy about scoring in their play that you just don't get from a born scorer.

Otto definitely knows when and how to score and he also came into the league with a built in mid range game that gives him rare value . Usually that's the last thing to develop. The only issue is Otto is probably never going to get the chance to be much of a volume scorer here. He'll never be more than a third option behind Wall and Beal when they are healthy.

Yep Otto was a highly polished star scorer in college, whereas those other guys were primarily defenders who scored points not necessarily from skill, but because they were the most athletic players on the court. Otto is a natural scorer, you can see he has that rare scorer's touch from anywhere on the floor.


I also think he'll get plenty of chances to score in volume if he's good enough. Why wouldn't he? At one point the Wiz had three players averaging 20+ppg with Arenas/Butler/Jamison (and Gil was taking 20+ shots). On the 2000s Pistons teams Hamilton averaged ~20ppg, Billups ~18ppg, and Prince and Sheed were around 15-17ppg. You can also look at the '09 Magic that went to the Finals, they had 4 guys averaging ~17+ppg.


On a balanced, ball movement team (and the Wiz have that identity) you can easily have 3 guys averaging around ~17ppg give or take. Beal will be the high scorer most nights with the majority of sets run for him, but I envision any of Wall/Beal/Porter could have the potential to go off on a given night. Add Marcin rolling to the basket and a stretch PF like Bobby Portis, and that's a deadly team.

[stevemcqueen1]

Real good points here, stevemcqueen1.

You have been an enthusiastic supporter of Beal for a long time whereas I have become a bit more skeptical of late. But you make a good argument that forcefeeding Beal shots and asking him to run the offense at times really looks like it's going to pan out very well in the long term, even if it hurts his short term efficiency. Two years ago, Beal could barely even dribble in the face of defensive pressure. Now he's dishing out 8 assists in 3 quarters as the default PG in a playoff game.

I would guess there probably isn't any one set way to develop young players. But the way we've developed Beal would be my preferred way to do it:

1.) Commit to him 100% when you draft him. We basically guaranteed Beal's spot in the rotation by dealing off Jordan Crawford. He knew exactly what kind of role we expected him to fulfill from day one, and he's been able to expect a certain amount of playing time each game and anticipate what kind of line ups he'll be playing with.

2.) Surround him with good veterans that already know how to play. You can't run a defense with everyone on the court trying to learn on the job and you can't execute your offense properly if nobody can shoot or pass. This is the mistake we made with Wall his first two seasons. Plus good veterans can be really valuable as mentors to your young player, especially if they used to be stars that have been through the process before.

3.) Constantly push the player a little bit beyond his comfort level by expanding his role. I can see this being a poor approach for some players, but a resilient guy like Beal needs this kind of pressure to grow IMO. He seems like the type who might get too passive if you leave him alone, maybe not the most naturally assertive personality and doesn't seem to have much of an ego. So you coach him hard and light that competitive fire in him and then you just try and channel that intensity into his on court performance.

Otto strikes me as a very similar player and personality to Beal. As Beal starts to grow into his own, he won't need a lot of tending. But Otto is further away. I think we need to take a similar approach to developing Otto. First off, commit to playing him and giving him a steady and predictable place in the rotation next season. Then start pushing him by steadily expanding his role. Have him go from a fifth option to a higher option. Have him take over some of the playmaking role for his unit, particularly when Wall and Beal are sitting. Continue giving him challenging defensive assignments during the regular season. Otto is going to come out of this postseason with a lot of momentum and we should capitalize on that by pushing him hard next season. The results might be ugly at first, but the process is what's important to focus on for Otto at this stage.

[stevemcqueen1]

In fact I could see Otto being not just a good SF but a borderline All-Star on the level of Caron, Luol Deng, guys like that. His offensive ceiling is far above 11-12ppg, it's up to him to put the work in.

I could see this too. One thing that I felt separated Otto from the other young highly talented SFs that came into the league since 2010 was the quality of his scoring instincts. Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Paul George are obviously better overall players than Otto right now. But I don't know that they were better prospects. Each of them had to grow into the role of a volume scorer over time, and I'm still not sure that any of them have scoring instincts as good as Otto's. This was the first season I felt like I saw things start to click for Kawhi and Butler as scorers, and even still, I see a lot of hesitancy about scoring in their play that you just don't get from a born scorer.

Otto definitely knows when and how to score and he also came into the league with a built in mid range game that gives him rare value . Usually that's the last thing to develop. The only issue is Otto is probably never going to get the chance to be much of a volume scorer here. He'll never be more than a third option behind Wall and Beal when they are healthy.

Yep Otto was a highly polished star scorer in college, whereas those other guys were primarily defenders who scored points not necessarily from skill, but because they were the most athletic players on the court. Otto is a natural scorer, you can see he has that rare scorer's touch from anywhere on the floor.


I also think he'll get plenty of chances to score in volume if he's good enough. Why wouldn't he? At one point the Wiz had three players averaging 20+ppg with Arenas/Butler/Jamison (and Gil was taking 20+ shots). On the 2000s Pistons teams Hamilton averaged ~20ppg, Billups ~18ppg, and Prince and Sheed were around 15-17ppg. You can also look at the '09 Magic that went to the Finals, they had 4 guys averaging ~17+ppg.


On a balanced, ball movement team (and the Wiz have that identity) you can easily have 3 guys averaging around ~17ppg give or take. Beal will be the high scorer most nights with the majority of sets run for him, but I envision any of Wall/Beal/Porter could have the potential to go off on a given night. Add Marcin rolling to the basket and a stretch PF like Bobby Portis, and that's a deadly team.

You could be right about Otto's potential to score in volume. That would be awesome to see him, Wall, and Beal all approaching that high teens and 20 PPG mark because it means the offense would be very potent. And perhaps he will get an opportunity to become a more central part of our offense as Nene and Pierce are probably going to leave in 2016 and Gortat will eventually start declining as Porter improves.

I too am really excited about the Wall/Beal/Porter/Gortat foundation. If we also got a good PF prospect in this year's draft, then that would be a sign to me that the worm has turned for this franchise.

It's almost like Porter has breathed new life into the fanbase IMO. I'm really enjoying the positivity and excitement everyone is feeling now that we're seeing Porter give us glimpses of his potential on the court. It's been the key factor in changing my attitude about Wittman. Before, I wanted him fired and the lack of development and usage of Porter was my #1 complaint. Now that Porter is playing and looking good... I don't know that Randy has my support again just yet. But I would definitely at least leave the situation alone if I were EG. Take a wait and see approach. If the team keeps responding so well to him, and he continues to show improvement like he has this postseason, I'd stick with him. If he wins a playoff series against the one seed without John Wall, then it would be a HUGE feather in his cap and a testament to the job he's done keeping the team together and on track.

[Illmatic12]

I could see this too. One thing that I felt separated Otto from the other young highly talented SFs that came into the league since 2010 was the quality of his scoring instincts. Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Paul George are obviously better overall players than Otto right now. But I don't know that they were better prospects. Each of them had to grow into the role of a volume scorer over time, and I'm still not sure that any of them have scoring instincts as good as Otto's. This was the first season I felt like I saw things start to click for Kawhi and Butler as scorers, and even still, I see a lot of hesitancy about scoring in their play that you just don't get from a born scorer.

Otto definitely knows when and how to score and he also came into the league with a built in mid range game that gives him rare value . Usually that's the last thing to develop. The only issue is Otto is probably never going to get the chance to be much of a volume scorer here. He'll never be more than a third option behind Wall and Beal when they are healthy.

Yep Otto was a highly polished star scorer in college, whereas those other guys were primarily defenders who scored points not necessarily from skill, but because they were the most athletic players on the court. Otto is a natural scorer, you can see he has that rare scorer's touch from anywhere on the floor.


I also think he'll get plenty of chances to score in volume if he's good enough. Why wouldn't he? At one point the Wiz had three players averaging 20+ppg with Arenas/Butler/Jamison (and Gil was taking 20+ shots). On the 2000s Pistons teams Hamilton averaged ~20ppg, Billups ~18ppg, and Prince and Sheed were around 15-17ppg. You can also look at the '09 Magic that went to the Finals, they had 4 guys averaging ~17+ppg.


On a balanced, ball movement team (and the Wiz have that identity) you can easily have 3 guys averaging around ~17ppg give or take. Beal will be the high scorer most nights with the majority of sets run for him, but I envision any of Wall/Beal/Porter could have the potential to go off on a given night. Add Marcin rolling to the basket and a stretch PF like Bobby Portis, and that's a deadly team.

You could be right about Otto's potential to score in volume. That would be awesome to see him, Wall, and Beal all approaching that high teens and 20 PPG mark because it means the offense would be very potent. And perhaps he will get an opportunity to become a more central part of our offense as Nene and Pierce are probably going to leave in 2016 and Gortat will eventually start declining as Porter improves.

I too am really excited about the Wall/Beal/Porter/Gortat foundation. If we also got a good PF prospect in this year's draft, then that would be a sign to me that the worm has turned for this franchise.

It's almost like Porter has breathed new life into the fanbase IMO. I'm really enjoying the positivity and excitement everyone is feeling now that we're seeing Porter give us glimpses of his potential on the court. It's been the key factor in changing my attitude about Wittman. Before, I wanted him fired and the lack of development and usage of Porter was my #1 complaint. Now that Porter is playing and looking good... I don't know that Randy has my support again just yet. But I would definitely at least leave the situation alone if I were EG. Take a wait and see approach. If the team keeps responding so well to him, and he continues to show improvement like he has this postseason, I'd stick with him. If he wins a playoff series against the one seed without John Wall, then it would be a HUGE feather in his cap and a testament to the job he's done keeping the team together and on track.

I've said the same thing Re: Wittman. My two main complaints with him all of this season and last - and not just me, these were the specific points most of us have been harping on over the past 2 years - were 1) the slow, outdated offense and 2) lack of development/playing time for Porter

Well a funny thing is happening in these playoffs, (and in fact the seeds of this were planted towards the end of the regular season, when Wittman started to feature Gooden and Porter heavily in the rotation to rest Nene/Pierce). First of all the offense has been revamped, we're playing small ball lineups and shooting so many threes you'd think WE were the Hawks or Raptors. Secondly Porter is playing heavy minutes, and even leading the team in minutes played in some games! I mean what a complete turnaround. Furthermore the Wiz are playing absolute balls-to-the-walls, lockdown defense (which has been their identity since Wittman took over) and have been the more aggressive team in every single playoff game so far.

So what's so bad about Wittman again? Assuming he continues this into next regular season, if we really do think Randy has got this group figured out and knows the right buttons to push, I don't see why he shouldn't at least be allowed to coach out his contract.

The only issue is will the FO manage the roster well and give Wittman the best chance to succeed? Gooden may be gone next year, and Pierce will again not be able to play much PF during the regular season. If we don't acquire a reliable small ball 4 who can start or play heavy minutes next to Otto, our offensive output is going to regress back to where it was. Also Nene managed to be mostly healthy this season, not to jinx him but we know that's unlikely to happen again.

Everything points to this team needing depth at the 4, namely a PF of the future who can defend and spread the floor. This team and core is actually in a very good place, but the FO cannot drop the ball on this draft. We need to be ready to seamlessly transition away from Nene as a key piece (though it'd be great to re-sign him for cheap as depth)

[nate33]

Porter finally had a poor game. Just 4 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in 30 minutes.

[miller31time]

Not that I'm going to get on him for this but his free throw shooting in the playoffs has been abysmal.

Still, great activity tonight as always. A lot of bounces went Atlanta's way that normally would be rebounds or tip-outs for Otto.

[fishercob]

Porter finally had a poor game. Just 4 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in 30 minutes.

Tough time for a stinker. If he and Gortat had showed up, we'd be up 3-1 and this series would effectively be over. Live and learn. My faith in Otto is unshaken.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This loss sucked.

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah he didn't pop like he had in the first seven games. Missed a couple good looks and couldn't quite convert some of the second chance opportunities he was in position for. That was one of those games where the Hawks made a ton of well contested shots and it felt like every 50-50 ball ended up in their hands.

[Higga]

He had a couple open shots rim in and out. He was due to regress a bit, particularly in his 3 point shooting(he was shooting 50% from 3). But he was still active all over the floor.

[Kanyewest]

Porter finally had a poor game. Just 4 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in 30 minutes.

Porter also had a pretty bad turnover after securing a defensive rebound off of an outlet pass. I still would like Porter to be aggressive out there, he only had 4 field goal attempts.

[dobrojim]

Porter finally had a poor game. Just 4 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in 30 minutes.

Tough time for a stinker. If he and Gortat had showed up, we'd be up 3-1 and this series would effectively be over. Live and learn. My faith in Otto is unshaken.

Throw in a minor Gooden sighting and we probably would have won in spite of the Hawks playing
pretty well.

I still say the key stat is our TOs. 15 is the number we can't go above. If we take care of
the ball and thereby minimize easy buckets by ATL, we will have a great chance to win.

[fishercob]

HP love for Otto: http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/2015/05/13/ ... um=twitter

[dckingsfan]

I think we need an over/under thread for Otto's improvement...