Grits n Gravy wrote:Young gun 6 wrote:Grits n Gravy wrote:I think it's destined to come down to Philly and Boston in the ECF(what a treat the 2nd round will be in east)
Boston is gonna play Harris and Reddick tight and sag way off Simmons, Butler and Emblid and dare them to beat them from outside(much the way they defended Simmons last year in playoffs).
I still like Boston to prevail in the east.
Butler is a 38% 3pt shooter
When you have 3 guys > 37% shooting from 3 it’s quite hard to just guard them tight and dare 2 other guys to beat you especially considering the matchup for Embiid is an old Horford who has been battling now (not like his 2018 season) and is averaging nearly 28 points per game.
So 3 very good 3 pt shooters, arguably the best distributor/passer in the league in Simmons and an absolute monster anywhere within 16 feet who will get nearly everyone of your defenders in foul trouble if you allow him to beat you down in the paint, who averages 27 points per game.
It’s good in theory to think they’ll be able to do that but there’s so many weapons there on both sides of the court and 2-3 guys who are above average in every area of the court (outside, inside, defense) and the benches mean even less in playoffs, it’s going to be a huge ask for Boston.
The only hope I think they have is chemistry issues for Philly or an injury.
True - but the numbers on Butler are a little misleading, he's incredibly inconsistent.
December - 31% from 3 (3.5 attempts per game)
January - 29.6% from 3 (2.7 attempts per game)
He's just not a consistent shooter so you don't know what you are going to get come playoffs or what you might get over the course of a series(good or bad)
Fair point about him being streaky. However, it is still quite a gamble to have to bet on a 37% 3pt shooter having a bad night because if you’re wrong he likely goes 40%+ if it’s one of the good nights.
Agreed he and Simmons are the 2 to leave alone though. I don’t think they can possibly defend Redick and Harris hard though and gamble on Embiid shooting from deep. If they are playing hard on the perimeter on those two guys daring others to shoot, Embiid will just destroy them inside with the perimeter defenders focused on playing Redick and Harris right.
Harris also has strong attributes inside if they are playing him tight on the perimeter where he can get to the rim strongly as can Simmons (even when they are daring him to shoot from deep) because they are just too tall and strong for their counter parts on defense.
Smart would destroy Redick but he would likely have to focus all of his attention on the biggest threat that he could actually guard which would be Butler.
Harris, Embiid and Simmons are all too big and strong for him.
Horford goes to Embiid who he has a good record against but is getting on in age now and looks a completely different player this season. Playoffs might rejuvenate him to lock down Embiid though.
That leaves Tatum for Harris which is a good matchup and would be hard fought.
Kyrie then goes to Redick who he can guard quite well with his footwork.
Simmons is left to face Morris who he would be too good for inside but Morris can sag and put all his defensive attitude into stopping drives and post play from Simmons.
It really will be a great matchup. I think Philly have too many assets and have the better offense and defense but chemistry, form and coaching all play important roles too which evens up the matchup.
what cap space could they be clearing? What a dumb move IMO
