2025-26 NBA Season Discussion

[Special_Puppy]

Boston looking by srs and record pace to end up a high 40's team which is pretty impressive for having lost tatum, jrue,horford, porzingis and kornet

I really do wonder if they could win the East if Tatum came back and was 90% his peak self

[LA Bird]

Suns are quietly 8-2 in their last ten with an average winning margin of +13.5.

Still early in the season but it's a stark contrast from last year when they went 3-17 without Durant.

[RCM88x]

Suns are quietly 8-2 in their last ten with an average winning margin of +13.5.

Still early in the season but it's a stark contrast from last year when they went 3-17 without Durant.

Turns out it was just Bradley Beal being 500 ton anchor hanging around the neck of the franchise.

[dcstanley]

Suns are quietly 8-2 in their last ten with an average winning margin of +13.5.

Still early in the season but it's a stark contrast from last year when they went 3-17 without Durant.

Turns out it was just Bradley Beal being 500 ton anchor hanging around the neck of the franchise.

That and trading Ayton + Camara for Nurkic. The KD in PHX era was kneecapped before it really began with those two moves.

[RCM88x]

Suns are quietly 8-2 in their last ten with an average winning margin of +13.5.

Still early in the season but it's a stark contrast from last year when they went 3-17 without Durant.

Turns out it was just Bradley Beal being 500 ton anchor hanging around the neck of the franchise.

That and trading Ayton + Camara for Nurkic. The KD in PHX era was kneecapped before it really began with those two moves.

They were solid the first partial season before making those moves. Lost in 6 to the eventual champ Nuggets without CP3 but still decided to tear things apart for Nurkic and Beal lmao.

[Top10alltime]

How is Sengun not top ten in the league yet

[Peregrine01]

Welp. All hopes of Jokic finally being able to take a breather in the regular season is now gone again.

And OKC’s case this year seems even more unassailable than it was last year.

[falcolombardi]

How is Sengun not top ten in the league yet

The denver game kind of shows why....

Against a big front court where he doesnt find a size mistmatch he couldnt get anythingh going

[tone wone]

That Gordon injury is brutal for Denver. It's not that they don't have enough talent to still be good without him but the risk of both Jokic and Murray wearing down in his absence goes way up.

They finally get Murray in shape and ready to go at start of the season (notorious slow starter) and his injury history suggest he's gonna be worn down and banged up come spring.

[frica]

Last 2 seasons CP3 was still a pretty good/ decent guard but this season he's been horrible.

Can't make shots and is very turnover prone. Non-factor on defence.
He flew too close to the sun with this last season.

[Caneman786]

Last 2 seasons CP3 was still a pretty good/ decent guard but this season he's been horrible.

Can't make shots

There is not a large enough sample size to speak about this. As the season progresses it's almost a certainty he will be in his normal 35% to 40% range from three pointers and 45% to 55% from mid range.

and is very turnover prone.

Much overstated. He has only had 14 turnovers the season with 177 minutes played, and three of the turnovers were failed lob attempts for the rookie center Yanic in garbage time.

On top of this, very small sample size.

[Caneman786]

November 25 (before the nightly games) betting Odds and implied probabilities as per BetMGM. 21.1% through the NBA regular season!

Previous posts:

Pre-season odds linked here: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2473240&start=180#p119965876
November 4 (8.3% through the regular season) odds linked here: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2473240&start=180#p119996766

All numbers in parenthesis are compared to betting odds on November 4 linked above.

NBA Finals (Vigorish 19.0%) (down by 1.7%)

1. +175, 30.6% - OKC (+5.1%)
2. +500, 14.0% - DEN (+1.3%)
3. +1000, 7.6% - HOU (+3.2%) (+4 places)
4. +1100, 7.0% - CLE (-3.4%) (-1 place)
5. +1200, 6.5% - LAL (+1.0%) (+1 place)
6. +1400, 5.6% - NYK (-0.8%) (-2 places)
7. +1600, 5.0% - GSW (-1.4%) (-3 places)
8. +2500, 3.2% - DET (+1.5%) (+6 places)
9. +3000, 2.7% - MIN (-1.2%) (-1 place)
9. +3000, 2.7% - PHI (-0.5%)
9. +3000, 2.7% - ORL (+0.0%) (+2 places)
12. +4500, 1.8% - SAS (-0.9%) (-1 place)
13. +5000, 1.6% - MIL (-0.4%)
14. +5000, 1.6% - ATL (-0.1%) (+1 place)
14. +5000, 1.6% - BOS (-0.1%) (+1 place)
16. +6000, 1.4% - LAC (-1.8%) (-7 places)
17. +6600, 1.3% - MIA (+0.5%) (+1 place)
18. +8000, 1.0% - TOR (+0.5%) (+2 places)
19. +20000, 0.4% - DAL (-1.3%) (-5 places)
19. +20000, 0.4% - CHI (-0.4%) (-1 place)
19. +20000, 0.4% - PHO (+0.2%) (+6 places)
22. +100000, 0.1% - IND (-0.4%) (-2 places)
22. +100000, 0.1% - MEM (-0.4%) (-2 places)
22. +100000, 0.1% - NOP (-0.2%) (+1 place)
22. +100000, 0.1% - POR (-0.2%) (+1 place)
22. +100000, 0.1% - CHO (-0.1%) (+3 places)
22. +100000, 0.1% - SAC (-0.1%) (+3 places)
22. +100000, 0.1% - BKN (+0.0%) (+6 places)
22. +100000, 0.1% - UTA (+0.0%) (+6 places)
22. +100000, 0.1% - WAS (+0.0%) (+6 places)

Over-Unders, West

Seed 1. 67.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - OKC (+4 wins)
Seed 2. 56.5 wins, 52.1% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - HOU (+5 wins) (+1 place)
Seed 3. 56.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - DEN (+3 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 4. 53.5 wins, 52.1% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - LAL (+5 wins) (+1 place)
Seed 5. 48.5 wins, 52.1% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - MIN (+0 wins) (+1 place)
Seed 6. 47.5 wins, 52.1% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - GSW (-4 wins) (-2 places)
Seed 7. 45.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - SAS (-1 wins) (+1 place)
Seed 8. 40.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - LAC (-7 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 9. 39.5 wins, 46.8% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - POR (+0 wins)
Seed 10. 38.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - PHO (+9 wins) (+3 places)
Seed 11. 32.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - MEM (-4 wins)
Seed 12. 30.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - DAL (-6 wins) (-2 places)
Seed 13. 27.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - SAC (-5 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 14. 23.5 wins, 52.1% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - NOP (-6 wins)
Seed 15. 21.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - UTA (-1 wins)

Over-Unders, East

Seed 1. 54.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - CLE (-1 wins)
Seed 2. 53.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - DET (+8 wins) (+3 places)
Seed 3. 51.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - NYK (+0 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 4. 47.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - ORL (+0 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 5. 47.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - ATL (+6 wins) (+4 places)
Seed 6. 46.5 wins, 52.1% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - TOR (+8 wins) (+5 places)
Seed 7. 46.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - MIA (+5 wins)
Seed 8. 43.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - PHI (+0 wins) (-2 places)
Seed 9. 41.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - BOS (+0 wins) (-2 places)
Seed 10. 41.5 wins, 52.1% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - MIL (-5 wins) (-6 places)
Seed 11. 41.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - CHI (+0 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 12. 26.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - CHO (-5 wins) (+1 place)
Seed 13. 24.5 wins, 52.1% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - IND (-8 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 14. 16.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - BKN (-1 wins) (+1 place)
Seed 15. 15.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - WAS (-5 wins) (-1 place)

Playoffs odds, West

1. -10000, 98.5% chance, 0.5% Vigorish - OKC (+0.9%)
2. -10000, 97.6% chance, 1.4% Vigorish - DEN (+3.3%)
3. -10000, 97.3% chance, 1.8% Vigorish - HOU (+7.9%)
4. -10000, 94.4% chance, 4.9% Vigorish - LAL (+11.1%) (+1 place)
5. -1100, 87.7% chance, 4.6% Vigorish - GSW (-0.4%) (-1 place)
6. -1000, 87.2% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - MIN (+7.4%)
7. -350, 74.5% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - SAS (+4.1%) (+1 place)
8. -130, 54.3% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - LAC (-18.5%) (-1 place)
9. +150, 38.1% chance, 4.9% Vigorish - POR (+3.2%)
10. +160, 37.0% chance, 4.0% Vigorish - PHO (+27.4%) (+4 places)
11. +300, 12.8% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - MEM (-11.3%)
12. +850, 10.1% chance, 4.6% Vigorish - DAL (-19.8%) (-2 places)
13. +1500, 6.0% chance, 4.3% Vigorish - SAC (-6.8%) (-1 place)
14. +2800, 3.4% chance, 2.5% Vigorish - NOP (-7.2%) (-1 place)
15. +6000, 1.6% chance, 0.6% Vigorish - UTA (-1.6%)

Playoffs odds, East

1. -10000, 96.3% chance, 2.9% Vigorish - CLE (+0.5%)
2. -3000, 93.1% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - NYK (-1.2%)
3. -5000, 92.7% chance, 5.7% Vigorish - DET (+18.2%) (+2 places)
4. -500, 79.8% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - ORL (-1.1%) (-1 place)
5. -400, 76.6% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - TOR (+30.9%) (+6 places)
6. -375, 75.9% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - ATL (+18.5%) (+3 places)
7. -350, 74.5% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - MIA (+15.4%) (+1 place)
8. -220, 65.8% chance, 4.5% Vigorish - PHI (-2.4%) (-2 places)
9. -125, 53.2% chance, 4.3% Vigorish - BOS (-7.7%) (-2 places)
10. -115, 51.1% chance, 4.7% Vigorish - MIL (-27.5%) (-5 places)
11. -110, 50.0% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - CHI (-5.6%) (-1 place)
12. +2200, 4.2% chance, 3.4% Vigorish - CHO (-14.0%) (+1 place)
13. +3000, 3.2% chance, 3.2% Vigorish - IND (-15.9%) (-1 place)
14. +6000, 1.6% chance, 0.6% Vigorish - WAS (-1.6%)
15. +8000, 1.2% chance, 0.2% Vigorish - BKN (+0.0%)