RealGM

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 1:24 pm**

In the matrix of team need vs best talent available vs cost vs early return on investment it's important to keep in mind your tier system, ranking players according to their projected success or role in the league.

Some players will give you certain production even if their top end doesn't project as high as another, but surefire production is nothing to sneeze at. Others may be worth a risk as a potential home run, but may not pan out at all due to undeveloped talent. It's possible to allow a player a range of values and average them to help you rank your priorities.

Consider one possible scale:

1. HOF player. Surefire franchise player, among the best at his position the instant he comes into the league.
2. All-star. Will surely make an all-star appearance during his career. Or win a year-end award like 1st team all-defense, etc.
3. Starter. In the top 30 players in the league at his position. Or thereabouts. Top 40. Would start for your team now anyway.
4. Bench player. Not a 30+ minute player, but has NBA calibre talents that a smart coach can find utility for.
5. D-league. Wait-n-see player. Requires seasoning before he'll see the floor. Or Euro-player who may end up with an overseas deal to get out of.
6. Scrub. Roster filler. Flame out. One contract then out. Or limited utility as a practice player, adding good attitude and intangibles to encourage teammates, but no useable NBA quality skill. Or despite talent proves to be an attitude problem or chemistry hassle that causes him to be benched with a feuding coach, etc. Or an injury risk, recovering from a career threatening injury.

Then assign your player a ranged value based on where you project their upside to be vs their guesstimated low-end minimum production.

John Wall looks like a solid 2.
A certain 3, we'd have started him at PG this year. A possible 1 if he actualizes all of his talent and harnesses it towards wins. So the low-end 3 + top-end 1 averages to 2. No first year all-star of course, but you'll be able to see that in his future as soon as his team starts winning.

Evan Turner may be a 3.
He would have started for us this year (3) but wouldn't beat out many starting 2-guards on playoff teams (4). However I have him tabbed as my ROY candidate (2) since he's a coach's dream in terms of attitude and defense and will see all the minutes he needs. A meddling coach from an underperforming team won't need to tug him off the court to remind him every now and again that he is not a superstar yet. And he has a shot to make a few all-star games due to his all-around talent.

Demarcus Cousins. 3.67
Has all-star potential maybe (2) if he hits the weight room, loses the baby fat, channels his frustrations into junkyard dog defense. He's big and strong, with room to get stronger. One of the few players you could see muscling Dwight Howard off the block, even if a guy like Shaq will still shove him out the camera frame. On our squad, and most teams in need of a true Big, he surely would have seen a game or two at starter (3) if his attitude didn't tick off the coach (6).

Derrick Favors ranks a similar 3.67, for different reasons.
All-star quality talents (2) in the run/jump/dunk scale when he puts it all together. Kid is too big and too talented. On this team he wouldn't have displaced anyone at starting PF, not Jamison nor Dray, and lack of developed skill (5, needs seasoning) would have posted him behind Oberto even, so his role would be bringing energy off the bench (4).

Etc. This system helps you get clear what your expectations are while balancing your upside optimism with your grudging coldhearted analysis.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 1:25 pm**

Then break them out and rank 'em by position. Which you can then rank according to team need.

Here I'd say strong center is our #1 priority, and will be until JaVale earns his PT honestly. Championship teams require a certified two-way low post load to intimidate and prevent easy shots at the rim, and to grind out easy buckets when opposing scouts can shut off all the fancy tricks and force you to break them by main force. Defensive boards are key as well, you can block shots, but if you don't retain possession afterwards then the other team just gets another try.

For us:

1. C. See above. There's a reason why 7 footers always go early. Size is rare.
2. PG. If no Livingston. Need back-up for Gil's knee. Need floor leadership.
3. SG. Need slashing scorer to force opponent fouls. Need perimeter defender to cut opp 3FG%
4. SF. See 3, above, but we didn't have to start a DeSteve in this spot.
5. PF. Blatche is coming on nicely, needs the PT to keep the confidence waxing.

Take the top ranked player (lowest score). Where all else is equal, you look at the category of greatest need. If you make a strong selection early, you re-shuffle the deck on team need.

If you have two players in the same position of need and same value, my inclination is to take the guy who is the more 'pure' version of that position (Pure center Cuzzins compared to PF/C Favors for instance) but there you can feel free to go the other way and take the guy with the fewest 'downside' numbers. San Antonio never goes wrong by avoiding that chemistry gamble for instance, figuring all the talent in the world is worth nothing if it's sitting on your bench pissed at your coach. That works for teams who have a coach they know and trust, worth more than any particular player, Pop is a HOF coach at this point. And it works best if you already have a few all-stars on your squad and can't afford to risk upsetting your apple cart.

In that case you could create a Rank # '7' for the attitude guys if you want, I suppose.

Some of us like to gamble the other way and weight more strongly the numbers at the top end of the scale, hoping for a home run. Add a number '0' for surefire HOF best-of-all-time-at-their-position type players.

Anyway, it's just a metric to help clarify your thoughts about a player and rank subjective measures like personal opinion. It's akin to the pain scale used by docs. If it feels like a '6' to you, then call it a '6'. There's no absolute metric for something as fluid as the future... Yet. You just need context to talk about the subject at hand.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 3:03 pm**

Fredette doing well in the workouts....according to his coach anyway

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/7000 ... -says.html

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 3:13 pm**

FWIW, Chad Ford put up his latest mock draft. Actually, it's his first.

He has us taking Wesley Johnson at 5, and Larry Sanders at 30.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 3:22 pm**

Rafael122 wrote:FWIW, Chad Ford put up his latest mock draft. Actually, it's his first.

He has us taking Wesley Johnson at 5, and Larry Sanders at 30.

Did it go:

Wall
Turner
Favors
Cousins
Johnson

Or did Aminu slip into the top 4 with Cousins falling to 6?

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 3:34 pm**

1. New Jersey
John Wall Position: PG Height: 6-foot-4 Weight: 185 pounds Age: 19 School: Kentucky

Analysis: This is a no-brainer for the Nets if they are lucky enough to land the No. 1 pick. Some look at starting point guard Devin Harris and wonder whether New Jersey should select Evan Turner instead.

The Nets don't.

Although they like Harris, they love Wall. The Kentucky freshman is the type of young potential superstar who could lure a big-time free agent to Jersey this summer.

2. Minnesota
Evan Turner Position: SG Height: 6-7 Weight: 205 Age: 21 School: Ohio State

Analysis: Turner would be a terrific fit for the Wolves, who need a versatile swingman who can play multiple positions on the floor. Turner's ability to come in and contribute from day one could help Minnesota immensely next season.

3. Sacramento
Derrick Favors Position: PF Height: 6-9 Weight: 215 Age: 18 College: Georgia Tech

Analysis: The Kings might be terrible at the moment, but a core of Tyreke Evans and Favors would make them very dangerous in the future. Favors didn't have a huge freshman season at Georgia Tech, but he has the potential to be the next Antonio McDyess.

Although it's clear the Kings like Carl Landry and Jason Thompson, neither has the upside of Favors.

4. Golden State
DeMarcus Cousins Position: C Height: 6-11 Weight: 260 Age: 19 School: Kentucky

Analysis: It figures that Cousins would land in Golden State. The Warriors are filled with young talent, but they're also the most dysfunctional team in the league. Enter Cousins, who was the most talented big man in college basketball, but also the most unstable. It's a match made in heaven.

5. Washington
Wesley Johnson Position: SF Height: 6-7 Weight: 198 Age: 22 School: Syracuse

Analysis: The Wizards aren't desperate for a small forward, but they are desperate for some star power after gutting the roster this winter. Johnson's versatility and upside would be too much to pass up here.

6. Philadelphia
Cole Aldrich Position: C Height: 6-11 Weight: 245 Age: 21 School: Kansas

Analysis: Aldrich might never be a star, but he's a solid big man who rebounds, blocks shots, and scores from inside and out. With only one more season left on Samuel Dalembert's contract, Aldrich would provide some great insurance.

7. Detroit
Ed Davis Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 215 Age: 20 College: North Carolina

Analysis: The Pistons are high on Al-Farouq Aminu, but the last thing they need is another tweener after adding Austin Daye and Charlie Villanueva last summer. Davis didn't dominate as a sophomore, but he's an athletic big man who's active on the boards. The Pistons desperately need a player like that.

8. Los Angeles Clippers
Al-Farouq Aminu Position: SF Height: 6-8 Weight: 205 Age: 19 School:Wake Forest

Analysis: Aminu is one of the best athletes in the draft. The question is, what position does he play? If he continues to refine his perimeter game, he'd be a great fit next to Blake Griffin in the Clippers' frontcourt.

9. Utah (via New York)
Greg Monroe Position: PF Height: 6-11 Weight: 250 Age: 19 School: Georgetown

Analysis: The Jazz are in a position to lose Carlos Boozer this summer via free agency, but Monroe would be a solid consolation prize. He's not super athletic, but he's the most skilled big guy in the draft and would be a perfect fit in Jerry Sloan's half-court offense.

10. Indiana
Ekpe Udoh Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 240 Age: 22 School: Baylor

Analysis: Barring a lottery miracle, the Pacers are screwed. A month ago, they were looking at possibly drafting No. 4 and adding a building block next to Danny Granger. But a late-season run dropped them all the way to 10th and ended any realistic chance that they'll get a star.

Udoh, however, would fit a need as an athletic shot-blocker who can run the floor.

30. Washington (via Cleveland)
Larry Sanders Position: SF Height: 6-10 Weight: 220 Age: 21 School: Va. Commonwealth

Analysis: Sanders could go 10 spots higher in the draft. But if he slips this far, the Wizards would have to be interested. He's the type of long, athletic shot-blocker that's in vogue right now.

Next five in: Stanley Robinson, F, UConn; Elliot Williams, G, Memphis; Jordan Crawford, G, Xavier; Gani Lawal, F, Georgia Tech; Darington Hobson, G/F, New Mexico

Partial list so as not to get in-trouble.

btw. Ford has Kenneth Faried going 22nd to Portland.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 3:36 pm**

Yes, the first five went like that. Aminu dropped to 8th to the Clippers. Ed Davis gets picked by the Pistons, Aldrich by Philly. Monroe to Utah. Udoh to Indiana.

My biggest surprise was Daniel Orton at 11 to the Hornets.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 4:08 pm**

Interesting that Ford has Aminu slipping to #8. I'm not always in agreement with Ford's talent evaluation, but he's usually pretty plugged in to what NBA GM's are thinking. I infer that most GM's have reservations about taking Aminu too high.

Ford also makes a good case about Golden State's dysfunctional chemistry. If they draft Cousins as the BPA at #4, I wonder what it would take to engineer a pick swap. Monroe would be a good fit there.

If we could buy the #18 off Miami (by absorbing James Jones), could we package the #5 plus #18 for the #4?

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 4:11 pm**

it'd make more sense for the kings to pick cousins. thompson is a damned good PF, and landry's pretty good in his own right where as spencer hawes is... not as good.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 4:18 pm**

nate33 wrote:Interesting that Ford has Aminu slipping to #8. I'm not always in agreement with Ford's talent evaluation, but he's usually pretty plugged in to what NBA GM's are thinking. I infer that most GM's have reservations about taking Aminu too high.

Ford also makes a good case about Golden State's dysfunctional chemistry. If they draft Cousins as the BPA at #4, I wonder what it would take to engineer a pick swap. Monroe would be a good fit there.

If we could buy the #18 off Miami (by absorbing James Jones), could we package the #5 plus #18 for the #4?

With GS, ya never know. They always loves themselves some tweener-sized forwards, so Aminu might appeal to them. I think they'd be insane to pass up Cousins OR Favors to get 5 & 18, but they could very well be insane.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 4:20 pm**

Also bear in mind that Ford is assuming that the top 3 order is according to record. In reality, that order is likely to be jumbled and there's just over a 40% chance that we get knocked down to 6th (or lower)

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 4:24 pm**

Yup, we get to groan through another draft lottery selection program.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 4:46 pm**

I definitely disagree with Sacto taking Favors over Cousins. The Kings have Thompson and Landry at PF, two capable guys. Their problem is that Hawes is tissue-soft in the middle. So if they drafted Favors, they would still have the same fundamental problem. But taking Cousins solves that problem and immediately sets them up to take the next step IMO.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 5:09 pm**

LyricalRico wrote:I definitely disagree with Sacto taking Favors over Cousins. The Kings have Thompson and Landry at PF, two capable guys. Their problem is that Hawes is tissue-soft in the middle. So if they drafted Favors, they would still have the same fundamental problem. But taking Cousins solves that problem and immediately sets them up to take the next step IMO.

Cousins seems more like GM Geoff Petrie's type of player. Petrie loves skilled, high IQ type of players. He's also taken guys with questionable character before in Jason Williams & Chris Webber.

But Favors definitely can play C. In fact I think it might be his ideal position unless he can develop some skills away from the basket. Especially if he's truly 6-10 246 as he's listed on draftxpress. His measurements will be important though.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 9:30 pm**

Vesely going against Josh Childress right now on NBAtv.

Posted: **Fri May 7, 2010 11:35 pm**

pancakes3 wrote:CCJ, i agree there are steals to be found since drafting is an art, not a science. however the stats show that lotto players are way more likely to pan out. we might be able to find rotational guys in the later rounds, but i'm not holding my breath on a boozer/ginobili/arenas type steal.

Agreed that the most impactful guys usually come in round one.

I think finding a marginal all star outside of the lottery is a steal. I believe at least 4 or 5 guys at 15 or below fit that description. Probably another 4-5 guys will be solid rotation players from the second round. I think value is everywhere in the draft, but agree that the lotto guys SHOULD be the studs, pancakes3.

Posted: **Sat May 8, 2010 1:14 am**

If we miss out on my top 5 (Wall, Turner, Cousins, Favors & Monroe), I would not be opposed to trading down or even trading out.

Sadly, picking 6th or 7th in this draft doesn't provide great value in my eyes. I'm almost certain this will be the year were you can similar talent at #14 or #15 as you could get at #6.

Maybe trading down a few spots to get a future 1st rounder isn't such a bad idea. Especially if we could one with little or no protection.

I wouldn't mind coming away with Xavier Henry and Indiana's 2010 1st rounder. I think someone else suggested that a few days back.

Posted: **Sat May 8, 2010 6:10 pm**

Another new Mock.

2010 NBA MOCK DRAFT - Consensus 1.0 Pick # Team Alex Raskin Yannis Koutroupis Joel Brigham Steve Kyler
1 Nets John Wall John Wall John Wall John Wall
2 Timberwolves Evan Turner Evan Turner Evan Turner Evan Turner
3 Kings DeMarcus Cousins DeMarcus Cousins DeMarcus Cousins DeMarcus Cousins
4 Warriors Derrick Favors Derrick Favors Derrick Favors Derrick Favors
5 Wizards Al-Farouq Aminu Al Farouq Aminu Wesley Johnson Wesley Johnson
6 76ers Xavier Henry Wesley Johnson Al-Farouq Aminu Patrick Patterson
7 Pistons Cole Aldrich Cole Aldrich Cole Aldrich Ekpe Udoh
8 Clippers Wesley Johnson Donatas Motiejunas Patrick Patterson Al-Farouq Aminu
9 Jazz Greg Monroe Xavier Henry Greg Monroe Cole Aldrich
10 Pacers Patrick Patterson Greg Monroe Ed Davis Donatas Montiejunas
11 Hornets Donatas Montiejunas Hassan Whiteside Donatas Montiejunas Daniel Orton
12 Grizzlies Ed Davis James Anderson Ekpe Udoh Greg Monroe
13 Raptors Ekpe Udoh Larry Sanders Hassan Whiteside Damion James
14 Rockets Daniel Orton Patrick Patterson Daniel Orton Solomon Alabi
15 Bucks Hassan Whiteside Ed Davis Damion James Xavier Henry
16 Timberwolves Damion James Gordon Hayward James Anderson Hassan Whiteside
17 Bulls James Anderson Daniel Orton Xavier Henry Ed Davis
18 Heat Larry Sanders Ekpe Udoh Larry Sanders Larry Sanders
19 Celtics Solomon Alabi Devin Ebanks Gordon Hayward Gani Lawal
20 Spurs Luke Babbitt Gani Lawal Devin Ebanks Stanley Robinson
21 Thunder Miroslav Raduljica Eric Bledsoe Stanley Robinson James Anderson
22 Trail Blazers Quincy Pondexter Willie Warren Luke Babbitt Gordon Hayward
23 Timberwolves Devin Ebanks Terrico White Quincy Pondexter Devin Ebanks
24 Hawks Eric Bledsoe Solomon Alabi Solomon Alabi Dominique Jones
25 Grizzlies Stanley Robinson Armon Johnson Eric Bledsoe Willie Warren
26 Thunder Gordon Hayward Paul George Gani Lawal Paul George
27 Nets Jarvis Varnado Damion James Paul George Quincy Pondexter
28 Grizzlies Avery Bradley Kevin Seraphin Elliot Williams Kevin Seraphin
29 Magic Mikhail Torrance Avery Bradley Willie Warren Mikhail Torrance
30 Wizards Willie Warren Dominique Jones Jordan Crawford Eric Bledsoe

Read more NBA news and insight: http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?sto ... z0nMXnYqt5

Posted: **Sat May 8, 2010 6:12 pm**

well, that did'nt copy very well. It is actually 4 mocks.

Posted: **Sat May 8, 2010 7:07 pm**

Surfman wrote:well, that did'nt copy very well. It is actually 4 mocks.

It's all-good, pretty-much every mock has us taking Al-Farouq Aminu which I hope doesn't happen.

RealGM

09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II

Re: 09-10 WizFans Official Draft Thread II