Noel's Trade Value is at its Highest Now

[thenbaman]

I have a noel trade proposal and im looking for your thoughts:

Sixers trade:
Noel
Lakers pick

Sixers receive:
Deangelo russel
Tomothy mozgov

On paper, we clearly lose as far as "value" goes, but we definiately improve our roster balance.

Why sixers do it:
1. We find great fit next to simmons rather than hoping for fit through draft;
2. Related to first point, if the sixers keep winning, we will likely play ourselves out of top 2 pick so were probably not getting any pg with more upside than russel; we then take jackson, tatum, or issac with our pick and roll out a lineup of: russell, covington, jackson, simmons, embiid next year and officially end the tank.

Why we dont do it:
1. If lakers get 4-5 pick this year, - malik monk or jason tatum could be as good as russel;
(Lakers could easily get top 3 pick and were playing with fire again next year (granted unprotected pick but weaker draft and less guard and wing prospects)

2. Noel is prob as good as russell now (granted doesnt fit as well with embiid here)

3. Mozgov contract stings a little (although will be off books by time you have to pay simmons real money) (lakers i doubt do it without unloading "mozzy")

I seriously can be talked in or out of this deal. Thoughts?

Russel=cancer want no part of him on this team.

[shawn_hemp]

Yeah I don't see how giving the Lakers pick away for Russell and an overpriced Mozgov who plays a position we don't need more of makes any sense

and just for the hell of it the Lakers can have Noel too

I guess if you really like D'Angelo Russell that would work, but I'm not seeing the upside that was mentioned.

I don't think he's a bad player, I just feel like we could do better

[hookshot199]

We should have traded Noel last year

And what if Embiid couldn't play? Back last June on draft night when Ainge was trying to rip us off, Embiid had just been cleared for light scrimmaging.

[shawn_hemp]

Seems like a risk they should have been willing to take

I know it is easy to say that in hindsight, but how are you going to draft 3 centers and let the 2 you should move sit around to the point where their value becomes nil?

They must have known this was never going to work. Casual fans could tell you it was never going to work.

3 players, all high draft picks, playing the same position. It sounds like something that would happen on accident except they knowingly did it

[hookshot199]

Seems like a risk they should have been willing to take

I know it is easy to say that in hindsight, but how are you going to draft 3 centers and let the 2 you should move sit around to the point where their value becomes nil?

They must have known this was never going to work. Casual fans could tell you it was never going to work.

3 players, all high draft picks, playing the same position. It sounds like something that would happen on accident except they knowingly did it

Embiid's doctors didn't know until 12 days before the 2015 draft that his foot hadn't healed properly. Okafor was always an insurance policy in case Embiid couldn't play although Hinkie has never confirmed anything about the pick, why he didn't trade try to trade up for Russell (although I think the reason is obvious), or why he didn't pick Porzingis.

What you're doing is worse than Monday morning quarterbacking. Nobody knew on draft night whether Embiid was going to have an NBA career or not.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/13074027/joel-embiid-philadelphia-76ers-suffers-setback-foot

[shawn_hemp]

youre right, it is easy to say they should have traded him last year before Embiid even played a game. It's too easy to say that. Although, they sure had no problem putting his face on every promotional material to come out since they drafted him.

however, there really is no excuse for why they didnt trade him very early into this year. It was pretty obvious after the first week of the season that Embiid was going to be the guy going forward and Nerlens would be a role player at best. It was just as obvious that he thought he was a max player and even more obvious that, given the slew of massive contracts given out to marginal players, that someone would give him the money if we didnt

The only real chance we have at getting something valuable for Nerlens at this point is if a starting C on a good team gets a long-term injury and a GM gets desperate enough to make a move

[hookshot199]

youre right, it is easy to say they should have traded him last year before Embiid even played a game. It's too easy to say that. Although, they sure had no problem putting his face on every promotional material to come out since they drafted him.

however, there really is no excuse for why they didnt trade him very early into this year. It was pretty obvious after the first week of the season that Embiid was going to be the guy going forward and Nerlens would be a role player at best. It was just as obvious that he thought he was a max player and even more obvious that, given the slew of massive contracts given out to marginal players, that someone would give him the money if we didnt

The only real chance we have at getting something valuable for Nerlens at this point is if a starting C on a good team gets a long-term injury and a GM gets desperate enough to make a move

But again, you're missing the point about the arithmetic: 75% of the contract, if we were to sign him to max money in June, does not expose us to any negative consequence except a lost opportunity to pay for somebody else's overpaid player. Portland could use him right now. So could Golden State. So could Boston. So could the Lakers. So could half a dozen other teams. They don't need an injury to make a move. They need us to take something back because their payrolls are maxed out or close to maxed out.

Now, here's a smart signing for $20 mil: http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/244626/76ers-Expected-To-Consider-Jrue-Holiday-In-Free-Agency

And the beauty of our current cap situation. We can sign Jrue and Noel we still suffer no penalty for 75% of Noel's contract.

[shawn_hemp]

I dont get why they wouldnt just wait until they can make him an offer

[hookshot199]

I dont get why they wouldnt just wait until they can make him an offer

Who - Noel or Jrue? I suspect they'll make Noel and offer and, if he's not in agreement, urge him to test the market and then match. Re Jrue, he's always been on the table for June 2017. It's just that many of us got so caught up in the Noel-Okafor discussion - which again is not meaningful from a payroll standpoint until June 2020 - that he fell through the cracks.

Look, those estimates that I gave you include Henderson ($9 mil/team option in 2017/2018), and TJ and RoCo ($10 mil each from 2018/2019). We can come in high for Jrue who now, unlike the past, will have a legitimate core to play with.

[shawn_hemp]

I meant why would other teams give up anything to trade for Noel when they can just make him an offer after this season anyway

The only teams who could legitimately win a title this year aren't willing to part with anything worth trading him for.

Unless a team trades us a bad salary and gives us a draft pick for Noel, I guess that could work out for both sides

but at some point the Sixers should stop being salary dumps for other teams right?

[hookshot199]

I meant why would other teams give up anything to trade for Noel when they can just make him an offer after this season anyway

The only teams who could legitimately win a title this year aren't willing to part with anything worth trading him for.

Unless a team trades us a bad salary and gives us a draft pick for Noel, I guess that could work out for both sides

but at some point the Sixers should stop being salary dumps for other teams right?

Because they can't. We can match anything offer. There are two issues as I see it: 1) Would signing Noel cause payroll (cap) problems? The answer is no for 75% of the contract. 2) Would signing Noel cause dissension, upset, whatever? The answer is maybe. And that's partly on the coach.

So, if I'm the owner and my team is valued at $700 million and I conclude that we may be able to make a move forward into contention half a year sooner than he had thought (the 'process' was signed off by Harris), I call Bret Brown in for a meeting and lay out options including the need for data about whether Noel and Embiid can play together.

And then tell Brown that if management goes ahead and signs Noel that one of the conditions for Brown's continued employment after the season ends is that he will make it work.

[spikeslovechild]

I meant why would other teams give up anything to trade for Noel when they can just make him an offer after this season anyway

The only teams who could legitimately win a title this year aren't willing to part with anything worth trading him for.

Unless a team trades us a bad salary and gives us a draft pick for Noel, I guess that could work out for both sides

but at some point the Sixers should stop being salary dumps for other teams right?

Because they can't. We can match anything offer. There are two issues as I see it: 1) Would signing Noel cause payroll (cap) problems? The answer is no for 75% of the contract. 2) Would signing Noel cause dissension, upset, whatever? The answer is maybe. And that's partly on the coach.

So, if I'm the owner and my team is valued at $700 million and I conclude that we may be able to make a move forward into contention half a year sooner than he had thought (the 'process' was signed off by Harris), I call Bret Brown in for a meeting and lay out options including the need for data about whether Noel and Embiid can play together.

And then tell Brown that if management goes ahead and signs Noel that one of the conditions for Brown's continued employment after the season ends is that he will make it work.

You are missing one key discussion point here Hookshot. Is Noel worth 20 million? Is he worth the max? For me the answer is no on both counts whomever he signs with will hope he grows into that player but that is not a known. That never gets discussed. It's just assumed because someone will offer him a bad contract that we should just fall in line behind them. Why?

BTW, Noel has been quietly awful the last four games in which despite three of them being wins he is an astounding -46. It looks like he has fallen back to earth rather quickly.

[GlenRiceARoni]

Yeah Noel is getting 4/ $100 due to potential.

You cant just guarantee you can move him. It doesn't work like that. He could suck or get hurt and be the worst max deal in the league for all we know. He already has an injury history and plenty of skill question marks.

Heres the main point some people seem to be missing.

IF YOU SIGN HIM YOU LOSE THE CAP SPACE THAT COULD BE USED TO SIGN A GUY WHO HELPS YOU WIN MORE GAMES.

its weird how people keep ignoring that. Yeah you COULD trade him but that doesn't get you the cap space back or guarantee its for a player who fits what you are doing... its much easier to sign a guy that you want at a specific position than just trade for him.

Letting Noel walk is a small mistake at worst. Id trade him for a mid 1st rounder in a heartbeat just to avoid a potential disaster.

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[hookshot199]

I meant why would other teams give up anything to trade for Noel when they can just make him an offer after this season anyway

The only teams who could legitimately win a title this year aren't willing to part with anything worth trading him for.

Unless a team trades us a bad salary and gives us a draft pick for Noel, I guess that could work out for both sides

but at some point the Sixers should stop being salary dumps for other teams right?

Because they can't. We can match anything offer. There are two issues as I see it: 1) Would signing Noel cause payroll (cap) problems? The answer is no for 75% of the contract. 2) Would signing Noel cause dissension, upset, whatever? The answer is maybe. And that's partly on the coach.

So, if I'm the owner and my team is valued at $700 million and I conclude that we may be able to make a move forward into contention half a year sooner than he had thought (the 'process' was signed off by Harris), I call Bret Brown in for a meeting and lay out options including the need for data about whether Noel and Embiid can play together.

And then tell Brown that if management goes ahead and signs Noel that one of the conditions for Brown's continued employment after the season ends is that he will make it work.

You are missing one key discussion point here Hookshot. Is Noel worth 20 million? Is he worth the max? For me the answer is no on both counts whomever he signs with will hope he grows into that player but that is not a known. That never gets discussed. It's just assumed because someone will offer him a bad contract that we should just fall in line behind them. Why?

BTW, Noel has been quietly awful the last four games in which despite three of them being wins he is an astounding -46. It looks like he has fallen back to earth rather quickly.

BTW: We'll save the +/- discussion for another time.

But back to what he's worth. We're actually not that far off. The max is $27 mil, I believe. That's 25% of the cap.

I think he should be offered $18 mil x 4 years = $72 mil (that's what Biyombo and Noah got BTW) and consider offering him $20 mil x 4 years = $80 mil.

Where you and I seem to be at odds is if Brooklyn and Dallas jump in and try to steal him with a $25 mil x 4 years offer = $100 mil.

You think we should let him walk. I think we should match a) because we can b) because, even if we signed a player like Jrue to $20 mil x 4, it doesn't affect our cap situation in Year 1 (we're still below the cap) and doesn't put us into luxury tax in Years 2 and 3, and c) because by Year 4 we will have paid 75%, thus can move him if that's determined to be the wisest course.

I know you continue to make a pejorative case that he'll be a 15 mpg player and that may or not be true. But it also may be that Brown can't see the defensive potential.

I think the first step is to see what our lottery position is May and move Okafor.

Assuming that Brooklyn and Miami finish ahead of the Lakers (who aren't tanking by the way), we've got a 47%-70% chance of getting the Lakers pick this year at 4 or 5, thus one of the top guards. If not, we get it next year unprotected. We're only 1.5 games behind Sacramento, so there's a chance we'll swap picks this year. They're currently at 9 and falling. We're at 7 and rising.

So then the next step is to sign Noel and decide what to do about Ilyasova. We can't make a decision about a free-agent guard until we know about the Lakers and/or Sacramento pick. If Sacramento falls to 7, we might be able to draft Monk, for instance.

Anyway, first step: wait for the ping pong balls to fall. And do look at the June 2016 signings. I'd say that about half were questionable.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/30/12052290/nba-free-agent-signings-tracker-2016-rumors

[hookshot199]

Yeah Noel is getting 4/ $100 due to potential.

You cant just guarantee you can move him. It doesn't work like that. He could suck or get hurt and be the worst max deal in the league for all we know. He already has an injury history and plenty of skill question marks.

Heres the main point some people seem to be missing.

IF YOU SIGN HIM YOU LOSE THE CAP SPACE THAT COULD BE USED TO SIGN A GUY WHO HELPS YOU WIN MORE GAMES.

its weird how people keep ignoring that. Yeah you COULD trade him but that doesn't get you the cap space back or guarantee its for a player who fits what you are doing... its much easier to sign a guy that you want at a specific position than just trade for him.

Letting Noel walk is a small mistake at worst. Id trade him for a mid 1st rounder in a heartbeat just to avoid a potential disaster.

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RiceARoni, I haven't ignored that at all. First, you can't make a move until you find out what you're going to draft. The lottery is on May 16. The draft is on June 22. So Colangelo has a month to work out a deal for Okafor first.

With Noel and moving Okafor for a future pick, we will have roster 12 spots filled (Embiid, Simmons, Saric, Stauskas, TLC, Holmes, Korkmaz, Noel, RoCo, TJ, Bayless, our 2017 (which could be Sacramento's 2017 pick) and 13 spots if the Lakers pick is conveyed.

If we trade Okafor for a 2017 pick (10-20 range, let's say) and re-sign Ilyasova or take our option on Henderson or Ilyasova (one not both), then we're at 15 spots.

Without Noel, subtract one: 11, 12 or 14.

So now you're talking 'business-speak' - opportunity costs and risks. You're basically making up a bunch of bunk on the risk side. There is nothing to suggest his injury-proneness is any different than that of Noah and Camby, the two players who have his skill set.

Re opportunity costs: I've already shown you that we can offer Jrue $20 mil, Noel $20 mil, Ilyasova $15 mil and RoCo $10 mil and we're still below the cap assuming we don't take a player back for Okafor, don't take our option on Henderson, and the Lakers pick is conveyed in 2018. This year, it would put us right at the cap.

Then you sign Embiid for the max in 2018, and you're still not in luxury range until 2020, which would be the final year of the contract.

You're making a 'straw man' argument to use another 'business-speak' term.

I don't care what you think about Noel's value any more than you care what I think. It's an opinion. Nothing more, nothing less. But I do care about basic arithmetic and facts.

We have only so many roster spots. We can add a $20 mil player like Jrue or $10-$15 mil player like Patty Mills if Team Colangelo thinks that's the way to go.

We have payroll flexibility to add that player - plus keep Noel until such time Team Colangelo decides to move, if they decide.

Your injury comment is a canard. It's more likely to be a concern for signing Jrue.

But facts: Marcus Camby played an average of 60 per season excluding his last year. Joakim Noah is between 60 and 65. Noel, until this season (which will push his average down) and his rookie season, is 70.

[spikeslovechild]

Because they can't. We can match anything offer. There are two issues as I see it: 1) Would signing Noel cause payroll (cap) problems? The answer is no for 75% of the contract. 2) Would signing Noel cause dissension, upset, whatever? The answer is maybe. And that's partly on the coach.

So, if I'm the owner and my team is valued at $700 million and I conclude that we may be able to make a move forward into contention half a year sooner than he had thought (the 'process' was signed off by Harris), I call Bret Brown in for a meeting and lay out options including the need for data about whether Noel and Embiid can play together.

And then tell Brown that if management goes ahead and signs Noel that one of the conditions for Brown's continued employment after the season ends is that he will make it work.

You are missing one key discussion point here Hookshot. Is Noel worth 20 million? Is he worth the max? For me the answer is no on both counts whomever he signs with will hope he grows into that player but that is not a known. That never gets discussed. It's just assumed because someone will offer him a bad contract that we should just fall in line behind them. Why?

BTW, Noel has been quietly awful the last four games in which despite three of them being wins he is an astounding -46. It looks like he has fallen back to earth rather quickly.

BTW: We'll save the +/- discussion for another time.

But back to what he's worth. We're actually not that far off. The max is $27 mil, I believe. That's 25% of the cap.

I think he should be offered $18 mil x 4 years = $72 mil (that's what Biyombo and Noah got BTW) and consider offering him $20 mil x 4 years = $80 mil.

Where you and I seem to be at odds is if Brooklyn and Dallas jump in and try to steal him with a $25 mil x 4 years offer = $100 mil.

You think we should let him walk. I think we should match a) because we can b) because, even if we signed a player like Jrue to $20 mil x 4, it doesn't affect our cap situation in Year 1 (we're still below the cap) and doesn't put us into luxury tax in Years 2 and 3, and c) because by Year 4 we will have paid 75%, thus can move him if that's determined to be the wisest course.

I know you continue to make a pejorative case that he'll be a 15 mpg player and that may or not be true. But it also may be that Brown can't see the defensive potential.

I think the first step is to see what our lottery position is May and move Okafor.

Assuming that Brooklyn and Miami finish ahead of the Lakers (who aren't tanking by the way), we've got a 47%-70% chance of getting the Lakers pick this year at 4 or 5, thus one of the top guards. If not, we get it next year unprotected. We're only 1.5 games behind Sacramento, so there's a chance we'll swap picks this year. They're currently at 9 and falling. We're at 7 and rising.

So then the next step is to sign Noel and decide what to do about Ilyasova. We can't make a decision about a free-agent guard until we know about the Lakers and/or Sacramento pick. If Sacramento falls to 7, we might be able to draft Monk, for instance.

Anyway, first step: wait for the ping pong balls to fall. And do look at the June 2016 signings. I'd say that about half were questionable.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/30/12052290/nba-free-agent-signings-tracker-2016-rumors

Sure we could offer him Biyombo money but really is that a contract we should look to replicate? For me the answer is no.

As far as the rest goes like I've said before the only way I see it making sense is if we already have a big three in place. So if Simmons balls and we have two high draft picks sure we could resign Noel to 19 million or whatever. I mean at that point maybe the FO is ready to go for it.

But I'll say this Noel has been awful the last 4 games and no it isn't just his plus minus watch him play. Last night in Toronto was a low point. It's sort of sad and refreshing at the same time because I wanted him to improve and show his small 4 game stretch worth of starters minutes was some sort growth on his part but I never really believed it. It sort of refreshing to see the old Noel I remember and quite honestly it makes the decision moving forward quite easy.

[MatthewGeigerII]

Noel got owned last night pretty badly. To pay him a max to be a backup probably shouldn't happen... I think they should get something now at the deadline.
Jah can be dealt on draft day still.

Holmes is the one guy that seems energetic on both ends similar to Embiid - could be a good backup


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[Ericb5]

Noel got owned last night pretty badly. To pay him a max to be a backup probably shouldn't happen... I think they should get something now at the deadline.
Jah can be dealt on draft day still.

Holmes is the one guy that seems energetic on both ends similar to Embiid - could be a good backup


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I don't think that it makes sense to trade both Okafor and Noel until Embiid gets through his second injury free season. I would rather sign Noel in the off season and deal with the value of his contract later, than deal with the prospect of having only Holmes as our backup center.

[Kobblehead]

If you want to criticize Noel for not being locked in and committed, fine. But let's not pretend a healthy Noel with no lower body ailments isn't a defensive savant.

[GlenRiceARoni]

My stance has very little to do with Noel as a player. I think for some teams he certainly could be worth 4/ $100. Philly just clearly is not one of them.

The entire argument hinges on signing Noel so you can keep him as a tradable asset. But at 4/ $100 he doesn't have a ton of upside as a tradable asset. And he has huge potential downside if his play continues to slip or injuries continue to mount.

Noah is one of the more unmovable deals in the league right now.

Most teams have a starting center so there simply is not going to be a huge list of teams eager to trade for a 4/ $100 Noel.

How can anyone justify that contract over throwing $100m at a guy like Millsap or Ibaka who can play the 4 and fits your roster construction instead? Both of these guys offer spacing on offense and are arguably as good or better defenders AS A POWER FORWARD chasing guys on the perimeter and banging inside. (Please note Im not arguing they are better defensively at PF than Noel is at center.)

Gallinari would be a huge addition.

Cheaper Guys like Iguodala would give you a much needed wing defender vs Lebron. Redick would be a perfect fit with Simmons offensively and his defensive limitations are covered by Embiid. You could probably sign both these guys for ~$30-$32m combined and you'd be a significantly better team than with Noel.

George Hill would be the perfect fit as a defender and floor spacer. He isnt a Penetrator so he fits perfectly with Simmons. It also limits your need at backup PG which is valuable with the skyrocketing cost at that position (delly got $12m!!)

Lowry or CP3 are longshots but not completely impossible if they recognize they probably have a better chance to win in Philly.

KCP would make you guys instantly legitimate on both ends of the floor. Worth every penny for 4/ $100.

Same thing for Otto Porter.

Patrick Patterson would be a terrific floor spacer at PF/C and be able to play with or without Embiid. That gives you both a starting PF and a backup center who fits perfectly with Simmons as a floor spacer.


Put it this way. If Noel was on another team right now, NO ONE would be clamoring to sign him as a free agent in the offseason.

So why do you want to resign him just because he's on your team? There's absolutely no difference... signing Noel to 4/ $100 is a negative freeroll. You cant win much but you can certainly lose your potential to assemble a contender with Embiid/Simmons if he gets hurt.

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