OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[TheStig]

so how 'bout at least freezing tuition increases for this year, haaaaaahvad?

university endowment: $40.9 billion
2020 budget: $4.5 billion
2019 tuition: $1.1 billion
2020 tuition increase: $0.044 billion ($1900 per student)

next largest endowments:

30.3 yale
27ish stanford
24.7 princeton

17.4 MIT

meanwhile...people whose net worths have shot up this year:

jeff bezos - from $116 bil to $190 bil
elon musk - from $28 bil to $65 bil
mac bezos - from $37 bil to $63 bil (good thing she didn't sell stock in her ex's company!)
ballmer - from $58 bil to $77 bil
eric yuan - from $3 bil to $15 bil (zoom CEO)

also, a U of georgia study finds that people are more concerned about their finances than their health when it comes to taking precautions against the virus

This whole cares act has been a large transfer of wealth. First, it's not 2 trillion, it's more like 7. The fed has been buying up tons of corporate debt with that 5 trillion dollars and driving up the market. Zombie companies are being propped up by this. It's incredible the disconnect between mainstreet and wallstreet. The PPP which has helped some has also been pillaged by those who are doing fine and have not suffered a downturn (it has also helped some). I think when we come out of this there will be even more consolidation and record profits again. Meanwhile you have senators debating if some people have it too good on unemployment and how to get people off in the middle of the pandemic. While families will be ruined and their is an eviction bubble ready to burst.

It's capitalism for the middle and lower class and then socialism for the rich now. There is no skin in the game. You just gotta captain the zombie company till the next crisis. Congress has done a piss poor job of creating checks and ballances on the system but has gotten bought out and leads these silly bailouts. This stuff isn't happening around the world.

[PlayerUp]

I think Covid might be his downfall as I think most leaders will be picked apart for their response.

Before Covid, I thought this election was a slam dunk for him.

Won't be just because of COVID-19.

Every single poll from Jan 2019 to Sept 2019 had Biden ahead of Trump by alot



Trump polls numbers are nearly the same as they were last year.

Of course polls as seen in the last election don't hold well with presidential elections because of the independent voters, moderates and silent majority in addition to the electoral college.

If Trump loses this time around, it's because of his overall actions during his term and those 3 key groups above are ready for a change.

[PlayerUp]

yep. newt was a turning point in terms of compromise/political discourse. members of congress used to socialize both for work and pleasure across party lines. no longer.

Newt talks about this alot even today. How he and Clinton never saw eye to eye but they would work day and night to compromise until they finally met in the middle. This is what we need. More in the middle willing to compromise or better yet abandon their parties and vote for the other side.

[PlayerUp]

I agree Trump is the most divisive President but Congress has been divided since Newt's days. A big divide. So many little things they can do to make peoples lives better.

What will it take to reverse this short term?

- Picking the right speaker of the house and senate majority leader
- A true president that will work hard to compromise with congress
- Clear out the swamp and change how congress is elected into office

Congress ineffectiveness has set the US back. Instead of retooling and improving they're more focused on attacking each other, reversing past policies, and endless investigations.

[moorhosj]

What will it take to reverse this short term?

- Picking the right speaker of the house and senate majority leader
- A true president that will work hard to compromise with congress
- Clear out the swamp and change how congress is elected into office

Congress ineffectiveness has set the US back. Instead of retooling and improving they're more focused on attacking each other, reversing past policies, and endless investigations.

I'm not sure anything will turn the ship in the "short term". In the long run, there are some proposals that (I personally think) would help move us in a healthier direction. HB-1 passed in the house last year is one example: https://legiscan.com/US/bill/HB1/2019

This bill addresses voter access, election integrity, election security, political spending, and ethics for the three branches of government.

• Specifically, the bill expands voter registration and voting access and limits removing voters from voter rolls.
• The bill provides for states to establish independent, nonpartisan redistricting commissions.
• The bill also sets forth provisions related to election security, including sharing intelligence information with state election officials, protecting the security of the voter rolls, supporting states in securing their election systems, developing a national strategy to protect the security and integrity of U.S. democratic institutions, establishing in the legislative branch the National Commission to Protect United States Democratic Institutions, and other provisions to improve the cybersecurity of election systems.
• This bill addresses campaign spending, including by expanding the ban on foreign nationals contributing to or spending on elections; expanding disclosure rules pertaining to organizations spending money during elections, campaign advertisements, and online platforms; and revising disclaimer requirements for political advertising.
• This bill establishes an alternative campaign funding system for certain federal offices. The system involves federal matching of small contributions for qualified candidates.
• This bill sets forth provisions related to ethics in all three branches of government. Specifically, the bill requires a code of ethics for federal judges and justices, prohibits Members of the House from serving on the board of a for-profit entity, expands enforcement of regulations governing foreign agents, and establishes additional conflict-of-interest and ethics provisions for federal employees and the White House.
• The bill also requires candidates for President and Vice President to submit 10 years of tax returns.

In a functioning Congress (democracy), this bill would go to the Senate where the Republican majority could pass a more right-leaning version. Then the Senate and House go to conference and hash out the differences in the two versions and create a final bill which is voted on by each chamber. Instead, it got shelved because somehow election security, voter registration, ethics, and transparency are "partisan" aims. They can't legislate because they are too busy raising money or their next election and burning eachother on Twitter.

This is how we achieve the incremental progress our Constitution was designed for, but it requires politicians to actually represent the voters. If you are worried that more people voting will hurt your election chances, maybe you aren't acting in the public's best interest.

[PlayerUp]

What will it take to reverse this short term?

- Picking the right speaker of the house and senate majority leader
- A true president that will work hard to compromise with congress
- Clear out the swamp and change how congress is elected into office

Congress ineffectiveness has set the US back. Instead of retooling and improving they're more focused on attacking each other, reversing past policies, and endless investigations.

I'm not sure anything will turn the ship in the "short term". In the long run, there are some proposals that (I personally think) would help move us in a healthier direction. HB-1 passed in the house last year is one example: https://legiscan.com/US/bill/HB1/2019

This bill addresses voter access, election integrity, election security, political spending, and ethics for the three branches of government.

• Specifically, the bill expands voter registration and voting access and limits removing voters from voter rolls.
• The bill provides for states to establish independent, nonpartisan redistricting commissions.
• The bill also sets forth provisions related to election security, including sharing intelligence information with state election officials, protecting the security of the voter rolls, supporting states in securing their election systems, developing a national strategy to protect the security and integrity of U.S. democratic institutions, establishing in the legislative branch the National Commission to Protect United States Democratic Institutions, and other provisions to improve the cybersecurity of election systems.
• This bill addresses campaign spending, including by expanding the ban on foreign nationals contributing to or spending on elections; expanding disclosure rules pertaining to organizations spending money during elections, campaign advertisements, and online platforms; and revising disclaimer requirements for political advertising.
• This bill establishes an alternative campaign funding system for certain federal offices. The system involves federal matching of small contributions for qualified candidates.
• This bill sets forth provisions related to ethics in all three branches of government. Specifically, the bill requires a code of ethics for federal judges and justices, prohibits Members of the House from serving on the board of a for-profit entity, expands enforcement of regulations governing foreign agents, and establishes additional conflict-of-interest and ethics provisions for federal employees and the White House.
• The bill also requires candidates for President and Vice President to submit 10 years of tax returns.

In a functioning Congress (democracy), this bill would go to the Senate where the Republican majority could pass a more right-leaning version. Then the Senate and House go to conference and hash out the differences in the two versions and create a final bill which is voted on by each chamber. Instead, it got shelved because somehow election security, voter registration, ethics, and transparency are "partisan" aims. They can't legislate because they are too busy raising money or their next election and burning eachother on Twitter.

This is how we achieve the incremental progress our Constitution was designed for, but it requires politicians to actually represent the voters. If you are worried that more people voting will hurt your election chances, maybe you aren't acting in the public's best interest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_the_People_Act_of_2019

I completely forgot this passed the house.

Looking at it there are several things (felons voting etc) I don't like but some good things in here. Of course as soon as it arrived in the senate they rejected it and that was the end of it at least for now.

[TheStig]

I agree Trump is the most divisive President but Congress has been divided since Newt's days. A big divide. So many little things they can do to make peoples lives better.

What will it take to reverse this short term?

- Picking the right speaker of the house and senate majority leader
- A true president that will work hard to compromise with congress
- Clear out the swamp and change how congress is elected into office

Congress ineffectiveness has set the US back. Instead of retooling and improving they're more focused on attacking each other, reversing past policies, and endless investigations.

I believe that pigs will fly and hell will freeze over first.

[moorhosj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_the_People_Act_of_2019

I completely forgot this passed the house.

Looking at it there are several things (felons voting etc) I don't like but some good things in here. Of course as soon as it arrived in the senate they rejected it and that was the end of it at least for now.

It being immediately rejected by the Senate without any debate is a perfect example of our country’s problems. There’s some obvious flaws in the bill (complex topics that likely require their own legislation, partisan goals like DC statehood, etc.) but McConnell believes it is better for his party politically to shut down any discussion of this bill, no matter how much citizens might want it (or parts of it).

That we forget about it, proves he was correct. The end game is no legislation gets passed unless one party controls the Senate, House and Presidency. The gap is filled with Executive Orders and Supreme Court fights and we slowly slip behind other advanced nations.

[PlayerUp]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_the_People_Act_of_2019

I completely forgot this passed the house.

Looking at it there are several things (felons voting etc) I don't like but some good things in here. Of course as soon as it arrived in the senate they rejected it and that was the end of it at least for now.

It being immediately rejected by the Senate without any debate is a perfect example of our country’s problems. There’s some obvious flaws in the bill (complex topics that likely require their own legislation, partisan goals like DC statehood, etc.) but McConnell believes it is better for his party politically to shut down any discussion of this bill, no matter how much citizens might want it (or parts of it).

That we forget about it, proves he was correct. The end game is no legislation gets passed unless one party controls the Senate, House and Presidency. The gap is filled with Executive Orders and Supreme Court fights and we slowly slip behind other advanced nations.

I agree with all of this. This is an issue on both sides doing the same thing. McConnell has been a senator for 35 years and Kentucky has not voted democratic for over 2 decades. All signs point to him being re-elected again.

I hope at least they can come together on a police reform bill? Is that too hard to ask for?

[dice]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_the_People_Act_of_2019

I completely forgot this passed the house.

Looking at it there are several things (felons voting etc) I don't like but some good things in here. Of course as soon as it arrived in the senate they rejected it and that was the end of it at least for now.

It being immediately rejected by the Senate without any debate is a perfect example of our country’s problems. There’s some obvious flaws in the bill (complex topics that likely require their own legislation, partisan goals like DC statehood, etc.) but McConnell believes it is better for his party politically to shut down any discussion of this bill, no matter how much citizens might want it (or parts of it).

That we forget about it, proves he was correct. The end game is no legislation gets passed unless one party controls the Senate, House and Presidency. The gap is filled with Executive Orders and Supreme Court fights and we slowly slip behind other advanced nations.

I agree with all of this. This is an issue on both sides doing the same thing. McConnell has been a senator for 35 years and Kentucky has not voted democratic for over 2 decades. All signs point to him being re-elected again.

which is incredible given that he's 25 points underwater on job approval. he's deeply unpopular, but the money rolls in come election time and he lives to fight another 6 years

[TheStig]

I think Covid might be his downfall as I think most leaders will be picked apart for their response.

Before Covid, I thought this election was a slam dunk for him.

Won't be just because of COVID-19.

Every single poll from Jan 2019 to Sept 2019 had Biden ahead of Trump by alot



Trump polls numbers are nearly the same as they were last year.

Of course polls as seen in the last election don't hold well with presidential elections because of the independent voters, moderates and silent majority in addition to the electoral college.

If Trump loses this time around, it's because of his overall actions during his term and those 3 key groups above are ready for a change.

Trump is hard to gauge in polls. Obviously the lead isn't as big as Biden has now but almost every poll picked Clinton. I don't think the polls do a good job of capturing his people.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

I wouldn't rule out Trump. We're in the middle of the pandemic, unemployment is high and we haven't had a debate. I think we could potentially be at his bottom.

[dice]

Trump is hard to gauge in polls. Obviously the lead isn't as big as Biden has now but almost every poll picked Clinton. I don't think the polls do a good job of capturing his people.

mostly disagree. last time the polls missed trump voters who decided at the last minute. voters who shrugged their shoulders and rolled the dice on a wildcard. he is no longer a wildcard. as such, i would assume that there will be less undecided voters heading into the election, but even if there are, the same dynamic no longer exists. there will no longer be a "i dunno about this trump guy...eh, what the hell" mentality out there

and again, polls don't "pick" winners. they are not prognostications. they are snapshots in time with obvious limitations (undecided voters, namely)

I wouldn't rule out Trump. We're in the middle of the pandemic, unemployment is high and we haven't had a debate. I think we could potentially be at his bottom.

it's hard to imagine that rock bottom would give way and reveal even deeper depths. he certainly can't be ruled out

it's very interesting that betting markets had clinton as a 4:1 favorite heading into the last election with only a 3 pt lead in national polls, whereas biden currently has close to a double digit lead in polls, yet scared bettors prefer him only 3:2

https://electionbettingodds.com/

biden's a fantastic bet at those odds, but i don't think that the bettors are so far off the mark as to suggest that biden is a shoo-in or anything

[dice]

usually or always wears a mask in public, according to polling:

republicans 46%
democrats 94%

only in america

meanwhile, california re-shuttering bars, movie theaters and indoor dining. LA and san diego ruling out in-person schooling for the fall as well

also, as if we didn't have enough issues regarding the virus, the high demand for COVID-19 testing has required startup clinics and companies to be involved. such businesses often don't invest in the software required for secure digital transmission of test results. so they're using good ol' fax machines...which has created bottlenecks that have thrown a wrench in case reporting and contact tracing

[TheStig]

Trump is hard to gauge in polls. Obviously the lead isn't as big as Biden has now but almost every poll picked Clinton. I don't think the polls do a good job of capturing his people.

mostly disagree. last time the polls missed trump voters who decided at the last minute. voters who shrugged their shoulders and rolled the dice on a wildcard. he is no longer a wildcard. as such, i would assume that there will be less undecided voters heading into the election, but even if there are, the same dynamic no longer exists. there will no longer be a "i dunno about this trump guy...eh, what the hell" mentality out there

I wouldn't rule out Trump. We're in the middle of the pandemic, unemployment is high and we haven't had a debate. I think we could potentially be at his bottom.

it's hard to imagine that rock bottom would give way and reveal even deeper depths. he certainly can't be ruled out

it's very interesting that betting markets had clinton as a 4:1 favorite heading into the last election with only a 3 pt lead in national polls, whereas biden currently has close to a double digit lead in polls, yet scared bettors prefer him only 3:2

https://electionbettingodds.com/

biden's a fantastic bet at those odds, but i don't think that the bettors are so far off the mark as to suggest that biden is a shoo-in or anything

How does Hilary have a shot in these odds lol

[dice]

Trump is hard to gauge in polls. Obviously the lead isn't as big as Biden has now but almost every poll picked Clinton. I don't think the polls do a good job of capturing his people.

mostly disagree. last time the polls missed trump voters who decided at the last minute. voters who shrugged their shoulders and rolled the dice on a wildcard. he is no longer a wildcard. as such, i would assume that there will be less undecided voters heading into the election, but even if there are, the same dynamic no longer exists. there will no longer be a "i dunno about this trump guy...eh, what the hell" mentality out there

I wouldn't rule out Trump. We're in the middle of the pandemic, unemployment is high and we haven't had a debate. I think we could potentially be at his bottom.

it's hard to imagine that rock bottom would give way and reveal even deeper depths. he certainly can't be ruled out

it's very interesting that betting markets had clinton as a 4:1 favorite heading into the last election with only a 3 pt lead in national polls, whereas biden currently has close to a double digit lead in polls, yet scared bettors prefer him only 3:2

https://electionbettingodds.com/

biden's a fantastic bet at those odds, but i don't think that the bettors are so far off the mark as to suggest that biden is a shoo-in or anything

How does Hilary have a shot in these odds lol

i'm not following. are you asking why was she a 4:1 favorite with only a 3 point lead in the polls?

edit: nevermind, you're asking why hillary is at 1.1% for 2020...well, mostly those are fans of the "dummy bet" - the kinds of people who take the 100:1 prop bets on a sporting event that have far less than a 1% chance of actually happening. the action junkies. then, there is some very tiny possibility that hillary actually does win the 2020 election...due to biden dropping out for some reason or dying before taking office:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/27/21186614/what-happens-presidential-nominee-coronavirus

i would THINK that bernie would have a better shot at the nomination than hillary in such a crazy scenario (particularly if it unfolded prior to the convention given that he already has a sizable number of pledged delegates), but who the hell knows

[dice]

trump retweet:

Read on Twitter

game show hosts gotta stick together

[TheStig]

mostly disagree. last time the polls missed trump voters who decided at the last minute. voters who shrugged their shoulders and rolled the dice on a wildcard. he is no longer a wildcard. as such, i would assume that there will be less undecided voters heading into the election, but even if there are, the same dynamic no longer exists. there will no longer be a "i dunno about this trump guy...eh, what the hell" mentality out there


it's hard to imagine that rock bottom would give way and reveal even deeper depths. he certainly can't be ruled out

it's very interesting that betting markets had clinton as a 4:1 favorite heading into the last election with only a 3 pt lead in national polls, whereas biden currently has close to a double digit lead in polls, yet scared bettors prefer him only 3:2

https://electionbettingodds.com/

biden's a fantastic bet at those odds, but i don't think that the bettors are so far off the mark as to suggest that biden is a shoo-in or anything

How does Hilary have a shot in these odds lol

i'm not following. are you asking why was she a 4:1 favorite with only a 3 point lead in the polls?

edit: nevermind, you're asking why hillary is at 1.1% for 2020...well, mostly those are fans of the "dummy bet" - the kinds of people who take the 100:1 prop bets on a sporting event that have far less than a 1% chance of actually happening. the action junkies. then, there is some very tiny possibility that hillary actually does win the 2020 election...due to biden dropping out for some reason or dying before taking office:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/27/21186614/what-happens-presidential-nominee-coronavirus

i would THINK that bernie would have a better shot at the nomination than hillary in such a scenario (particularly if such a crazy scenario unfolded prior to the convention given that he already has a sizable number of pledged delegates), but who the hell knows

I just found it odd she had odds. I guess the sucker bet makes sense.

I'm confident the Democrats would rather have Trump than Bernie lol

[dice]

disney world reopens on same day FL shatters NY's single day case record:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/07/12/florida-shatters-national-record-with-over-15000-new-coronavirus-cases/#467e495e5aae

meanwhile, it looks like AZ might be turning the corner (?):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavirus-cases.html

[jmajew]

disney world reopens on same day FL shatters NY's single day case record:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/07/12/florida-shatters-national-record-with-over-15000-new-coronavirus-cases/#467e495e5aae

meanwhile, it looks like AZ might be turning the corner (?):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavirus-cases.html

What did Arizona due to change the course so quickly?

[keobulls]

Watch on YouTube