General (Non-Wiz) Draft Discussion

[ZonkertheBrainless]

I remember watching Ohio State beat the snot out of IU and Bob Knight said, you know you should keep an eye on that Michael Redd kid, he knows where to be and how to make a shot for himself, blah blah blah. He went on and on about him for like five minutes.

[Rafael122]

Frankly, I'm kind of suprised that managment leaked that kind of information to the Times. Telegraphing our desire to trade the #3 pick is only going to reduce its value. Flip Saunders may need to attend one of EG's seminars on speaking to the media.

I'm not. That's the mentality that team should have. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if half the lottery teams who have a chance at the top 2 picks feel the same way. It's a 2 man draft, and then there are players who could contribute, but are not worth the spot they were picked.

[MJG]

all this talk reminds me of that bobby knight anecdote where the Blazers GM asked him who he should take #2. Knight said to take jordan. The GM said, but we really need a center and we've already got clyde. Knight said, well then, play jordan at center, this kid is can't miss.

not to say that rubio is jordan...

Pretty much. Always take the player you have most highly rated on your board. Only time position should ever come into play is if you have two prospects rated equally.

[pancakes3]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMlN-_Ou ... re=related

dell never missed. would you draft his son?

[AgentOvechkin08]

Man, the lottery cannot get here soon enough.

I am being optimistic when i say this:

When we get the number 1 pick, the only thing we are going to talk about is Blake Griffin for a whole month straight, KNOWING he will be on our team!!! I LOVE IT

[TheKingOfVa360]

Man, the lottery cannot get here soon enough.

I am being optimistic when i say this:

When we get the number 1 pick, the only thing we are going to talk about is Blake Griffin for a whole month straight, KNOWING he will be on our team!!! I LOVE IT

I know! I'm so excited

[Rafael122]

Interesting, reading Lee's blog, Ernie scouted Brandon Jennings while in Europe. Eh, it wouldn't hurt.

[Ji]

why not? He is probably the 3rd highest ceiling player in the draft

[Ji]

funny how everyone has soured on Jordan Hill. I heard people on the board saying back in Feb that he was even better than Blake

Now...you dont even here his name mentioned anymore. What happened lol?

[pancakes3]

he's got better size than Blake. and i think it's the board's that soured, but the general consensus is that he's still a top 5 pick.

and in other news:
http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wireta ... nba_draft/

rubio's on the list.

[closg00]

Interesting mock.
http://www.ridiculousupside.com/2009/4/ ... ersion-1-0

[Ji]

Interesting mock.
http://www.ridiculousupside.com/2009/4/ ... ersion-1-0

not really with those ridiculous player comparisons. This guy makes it seem like this is the best draft class of all time

[pancakes3]

interesting comparison on Curry with Mike Bibby. the more i think about it, the more i like it.

[Ji]

draft express loves Harden


•James Harden’s situational statistics should ease many of the concerns teams have about his game. It appears that he's one of those players who "finds a way to get by" despite his shortcomings.

Very efficient, while maintaining fairly high usage rates, Harden made 47% of his shots in logged possessions –an excellent percentage for a two. None of the 5 players who used as many possessions as Harden (Marcus Thornton, Jermaine Taylor, Jodie Meeks, Jerel McNeal, Dar Tucker) were as efficient as he was from the field. Out of those players, only Meeks' PPP was higher than Harden’s, thanks to how many 3's he made, while Thornton matched him at 1 PPP.

A lot of Harden’s efficiency comes from an area that most probably wouldn’t expect it to. In spite of his perceived athletic limitations, Harden was a terrific finisher around the basket this season. Not only did he get to the rim more than any other player on our list (8.7 Pos/G), he ranked in first comfortably at 1.25 PPP. Considering the questions surrounding his ability to translate his finishing ability to the NBA, these numbers can only help his cause. Ironically, they don’t seem to offer much support for one of his bigger perceived strengths.

Harden's biggest shortcoming ended up being in the perimeter shooting department. He was terrific on the very few catch and shoot opportunities he received with his feet set (2.4 Pos/G), but really struggled when being contested (.85 PPP) or shooting off the dribble (.73 PPP). In fact, the 27% he shot from the field off the dribble is the lowest of any of the nineteen players in our sample. Fortunately for Harden, this is clearly a part of his game he can work on, but he'll have to put in the appropriate time in the gym. In terms of things a team can count on him to do well in the short-run, his ability to score with space deserves consideration at the top of that list.

Harden's intelligence and excellent skill-level really shine through in his ability to score in transition--which was an important part of his game in college. He ranks behind only Wayne Ellington (who obviously had a big advantage playing under Roy Williams' up-tempo system with Ty Lawson) in this category at 1.22 PPP.

Something NBA types will be happy to learn is that Harden created quite a bit of offense by himself in isolation type situations—his 5.2 possessions per game ranks just behind Dar Tucker amongst the 19 we looked at. He still has quite a bit of room to improve here, though, only ranking 7th in PPP with .89. We should point out that three of the players (Paul Harris, Alex Ruoff and Eric Devendorf) ranked ahead of him here were very low usage types—the only two who really stand out as being superior in this aspect are Jeff Teague (5 possessions per game, 1.08 PPP) and Jack McClinton (4 possessions per game, 1.07 PPP). Harden turns the ball over at a fairly high rate, and isn't as effective driving right (39% FG) as he is going left (44% FG)—which makes sense since he’s left-handed. He also doesn't draw quite as many fouls as you might hope. However, it is more than safe to say that Harden could be a very effective offensive player if team’s put him position to succeed.

[doclinkin]

draft express loves Harden

...

A lot of Harden’s efficiency comes from an area that most probably wouldn’t expect it to. In spite of his perceived athletic limitations, Harden was a terrific finisher around the basket this season. Not only did he get to the rim more than any other player on our list (8.7 Pos/G), he ranked in first comfortably at 1.25 PPP. Considering the questions surrounding his ability to translate his finishing ability to the NBA, these numbers can only help his cause. Ironically, they don’t seem to offer much support for one of his bigger perceived strengths.

Harden's biggest shortcoming ended up being in the perimeter shooting department. He was terrific on the very few catch and shoot opportunities he received with his feet set (2.4 Pos/G), but really struggled when being contested (.85 PPP) or shooting off the dribble (.73 PPP). In fact, the 27% he shot from the field off the dribble is the lowest of any of the nineteen players in our sample.

Truth is these two stats evidence reasons why I'd be more skeptical about Harden in the NBA, not less. Harden is 'floor strong' but not athletic, the ASU system was modified to take advantage of this. They ran with 4 guards who could shoot outside and a PF/C. Effectively this spread the floor and allowed Harden opportunity to get loose in the paint and play like a small forward, use his low center of gravity to absorb the foul and still finish. But it's not like he was powering through Bigs or rising over them or beating them with speed. He's not gonna find those mismatches in the NBA.

On the catch and shoot thing. I said early in the last thread that yes he hits open shots, but he'll get far fewer open shots in the NBA.

Interestingly though he's a pretty decent fit for Flip Saunders though. He knows how to work the angles of a zone, and I could see the fit in parts of his offense. He's smart enough to adjust quickly and may end up surprising me. But I'm not excited as a Top 5 pick.

[Dat2U]

Interesting mock.
http://www.ridiculousupside.com/2009/4/ ... ersion-1-0

not really with those ridiculous player comparisons. This guy makes it seem like this is the best draft class of all time

I agree, he goes overboard with some of those comparisons. I'll try a few though.

Blake Griffin = Karl Malone
Ricky Rubio = Jason Kidd mixed with Steve Nash
Hasheem Thabeet = A souped up, turbo charged version of Mohammed Saer Sene
Jordan Hill = Tyrone Hill
James Harden = Anthony Peeler
Tyreke Evans = Deluxe version of Larry Hughes minus the injuries
DeMar DeRozan = Jason Richardson
Stephen Curry = I think the Mike Bibby comparison is dead on
DeJuan Blair = Danny Fortson w/o the horrible attitude
Eric Maynor = Poor man's Chauncey Billups
Tyler Hansbrough = Brian Scalabrine

[doclinkin]

By the way, the points per possession stats still suggest my boy Jack McClinton will be a steal in the 2nd round. Yes he's short. He'll still be able to score in the NBA coming in off the bench. Not a bad hold-out weapon to have hidden under your hat.

[doclinkin]

Ricky Rubio = Jason Kidd mixed with Steve Nash

Shoots like Kidd. Skinny like Nash. But passes like either/both and handles better than either one. I like the Maynor/Billups comparison, though in the NBA I expect Maynor shines as a true PG with players to actually pass to. The kid had a 3/1 ast/TO ratio last year, with high assist totals. Not too shabby at all.

[pancakes3]

Jack McC = a marginally better eddie house.

as for rubio, his shooting stats are kind of confounding.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ric ... 155/stats/

I'm looking mainly at the ACB stats because the euroleague sample size is just too small. His 2 point % is abysmally low - like Antoine Walker territory. Yet his 3 point % is encouragingly high. Most encouraging of all is the obvious improvement that he's made in each of his 3 seasons in the ACB shooting-wise. He went from a 57% FT shooter to an 81% FT shooter pretty quickly. However what these stats suggest is that while the kid has all the court vision you could hope for, he can't create his own shot or get to the rim at will. He's a decent enough a shooter that he can knock down the 3 but if he's being guarded tightly or doubled he can't perform. I can allay these fears for now by chalking it up to him being rail thin, but that means a rough rookie season for him on whichever team drafts him expecting him to have a Derrick Rose-like impact.

[Ruzious]

draft express loves Harden

...

A lot of Harden’s efficiency comes from an area that most probably wouldn’t expect it to. In spite of his perceived athletic limitations, Harden was a terrific finisher around the basket this season. Not only did he get to the rim more than any other player on our list (8.7 Pos/G), he ranked in first comfortably at 1.25 PPP. Considering the questions surrounding his ability to translate his finishing ability to the NBA, these numbers can only help his cause. Ironically, they don’t seem to offer much support for one of his bigger perceived strengths.

Harden's biggest shortcoming ended up being in the perimeter shooting department. He was terrific on the very few catch and shoot opportunities he received with his feet set (2.4 Pos/G), but really struggled when being contested (.85 PPP) or shooting off the dribble (.73 PPP). In fact, the 27% he shot from the field off the dribble is the lowest of any of the nineteen players in our sample.

Truth is these two stats evidence reasons why I'd be more skeptical about Harden in the NBA, not less. Harden is 'floor strong' but not athletic, the ASU system was modified to take advantage of this. They ran with 4 guards who could shoot outside and a PF/C. Effectively this spread the floor and allowed Harden opportunity to get loose in the paint and play like a small forward, use his low center of gravity to absorb the foul and still finish. But it's not like he was powering through Bigs or rising over them or beating them with speed. He's not gonna find those mismatches in the NBA.

On the catch and shoot thing. I said early in the last thread that yes he hits open shots, but he'll get far fewer open shots in the NBA.

Doc, I'm not following your logic at all. If he was essentially playing forward, then he was playing against bigger players - not smaller players - than college guards. He was more than likely primarliy the responsibility of the best wing defender with some size on every team. And he will get more open shots in the NBA, because in college - he was THE GUY oppenents had to stop - and defenses in the NBA won't be able to focus on just stopping him - unless he's on a lousy team. He is the best 2 prospect in the draft, imo.