2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[OhayoKD]

If Murray plays OK Denver most likely wins, if he plays horrendous like in game 1, 2 and 6 Minny would have a great shot

Horrendous is understating it. It's hard to describe how bad he's been in these playoffs. Probably better to play Reggie Jackson or Christian Braun when it gets like this. Also, what happened to Peyton Watson?

They definitely should.

taking off the Nuggets primary ball-handler who also absorbs the toughest selection of shots will definitely make things easier for Jokic.

[Colbinii]

Here's hoping Minnesota keeps that undefeated game 7 record.

Very forceful bounce back from Minnesota, happy to see the home fans have something to cheer about in the series.

I want to see a series where only the away team wins

Yeah, I don’t think that’s happened yet in the NBA. It did happen in the 2019 World Series, but I don’t think home field advantage is as strong in baseball, so that isn’t as surprising as it would be in the NBA. There’s probably other examples where the home team only won one game, but the most prominent example is probably the 1993 Finals. The Bulls won the first two games in Phoenix, and then Phoenix won 2 of the next 3 games in Chicago, and then Chicago closed it out in Phoenix.

The 2020 Lakers never won a home game in the post-season

[lessthanjake]

I want to see a series where only the away team wins

Yeah, I don’t think that’s happened yet in the NBA. It did happen in the 2019 World Series, but I don’t think home field advantage is as strong in baseball, so that isn’t as surprising as it would be in the NBA. There’s probably other examples where the home team only won one game, but the most prominent example is probably the 1993 Finals. The Bulls won the first two games in Phoenix, and then Phoenix won 2 of the next 3 games in Chicago, and then Chicago closed it out in Phoenix.

2021 clippers mavs

Yeah, that’s another with only one home-team victory. Clippers managed to actually win game 7 at home, after the away team won the first 6 games of the series.

[jalengreen]

Here's hoping Minnesota keeps that undefeated game 7 record.

Very forceful bounce back from Minnesota, happy to see the home fans have something to cheer about in the series.

I want to see a series where only the away team wins

Yeah, I don’t think that’s happened yet in the NBA. It did happen in the 2019 World Series, but I don’t think home field advantage is as strong in baseball, so that isn’t as surprising as it would be in the NBA. There’s probably other examples where the home team only won one game, but the most prominent example is probably the 1993 Finals. The Bulls won the first two games in Phoenix, and then Phoenix won 2 of the next 3 games in Chicago, and then Chicago closed it out in Phoenix.

yes, iirc nba has the biggest home advantage of the big 4 leagues with mlb having the smallest

[lessthanjake]

If Murray plays OK Denver most likely wins, if he plays horrendous like in game 1, 2 and 6 Minny would have a great shot

Horrendous is understating it. It's hard to describe how bad he's been in these playoffs. Probably better to play Reggie Jackson or Christian Braun when it gets like this. Also, what happened to Peyton Watson?

They definitely should.

taking off the Nuggets primary ball-handler who also absorbs the toughest selection of shots will definitely make things easier for Jokic.

FYI, if we look at PBPstats’ shot quality measure in RS+Playoffs in the past two years, it is Jokic that has had the toughest shot quality on the Nuggets (amongst players who have actually played at least 500 minutes). Murray is a close second. The same was true in 2019 and 2020 as well. And it’s the same story if we just limit what we look at to the playoffs they’ve played together. That model accounts for tons of factors, but notably doesn’t include how close the nearest defender is. On that front, though, it’s Jokic that is tightly guarded more often than Murray. For instance, as per NBA.com data, Jokic was “very tightly” defended on 3.0 FGAs per game this season, compared to 1.3 for Murray. And Jokic was “tightly” guarded on 9.2 FGAs per game this season, compared to 5.5 for Murray. On the flip side, Murray was “wide open” on 3.3 FGAs per game, compared to just 1.8 for Jokic. And Murray was “open” on 6.5 FGAs per game, compared to just 4.0 for Jokic. We see essentially the same story last season as well, with Jokic having substantially more FGAs per game where he was “very tightly” or “tightly” covered, while Murray had substantially more FGAs per game where he was “wide open” or “open.” The same story has played out in prior seasons together and the playoffs as well. So, if anything, the PBPstats shot quality model is probably underestimating how tough Jokic’s shots are compared to Murray’s, and it still has Jokic with the tougher shot quality. Jokic takes a lot of objectively really tough shots—it’s just that he takes tons of shots that are really tough for like everyone but him (most prominently, his floater). I really don’t think it’s accurate to say Murray “absorbs the toughest selection of shots” unless we are just internalizing the fact that Jokic is so good that nothing is really all that tough a shot for him.

[OhayoKD]

Horrendous is understating it. It's hard to describe how bad he's been in these playoffs. Probably better to play Reggie Jackson or Christian Braun when it gets like this. Also, what happened to Peyton Watson?

They definitely should.

taking off the Nuggets primary ball-handler who also absorbs the toughest selection of shots will definitely make things easier for Jokic.

FYI, if we look at PBPstats’ shot quality measure in RS+Playoffs in the past two years, it is Jokic that has had the toughest shot quality on the Nuggets (amongst players who have actually played at least 500 minutes). Murray is a close second. The same was true in 2019 and 2020 as well. And it’s the same story if we just limit what we look at to the playoffs they’ve played together. That model accounts for tons of factors, but notably doesn’t include how close the nearest defender is. .

Noted.

Will revise to "who takes nearly as tough of a shot diet as Jokic". I take it 2023 was an exception then.

will note "tightly guarded vs open" can be a result of a player's ability to get seperation. KD's shots were generally more tightly guarded than Steph on the Warriors but that's because Steph was quicker not defensive intention.

[Peregrine01]

FYI, if we look at PBPstats’ shot quality measure in RS+Playoffs in the past two years, it is Jokic that has had the toughest shot quality on the Nuggets (amongst players who have actually played at least 500 minutes). Murray is a close second. The same was true in 2019 and 2020 as well. And it’s the same story if we just limit what we look at to the playoffs they’ve played together. That model accounts for tons of factors, but notably doesn’t include how close the nearest defender is. On that front, though, it’s Jokic that is tightly guarded more often than Murray. For instance, as per NBA.com data, Jokic was “very tightly” defended on 3.0 FGAs per game this season, compared to 1.3 for Murray. And Jokic was “tightly” guarded on 9.2 FGAs per game this season, compared to 5.5 for Murray. On the flip side, Murray was “wide open” on 3.3 FGAs per game, compared to just 1.8 for Jokic. And Murray was “open” on 6.5 FGAs per game, compared to just 4.0 for Jokic. We see essentially the same story last season as well, with Jokic having substantially more FGAs per game where he was “very tightly” or “tightly” covered, while Murray had substantially more FGAs per game where he was “wide open” or “open.” The same story has played out in prior seasons together and the playoffs as well. So, if anything, the PBPstats shot quality model is probably underestimating how tough Jokic’s shots are compared to Murray’s, and it still has Jokic with the tougher shot quality. Jokic takes a lot of objectively really tough shots—it’s just that he takes tons of shots that are really tough for like everyone but him (most prominently, his floater). I really don’t think it’s accurate to say Murray “absorbs the toughest selection of shots” unless we are just internalizing the fact that Jokic is so good that nothing is really all that tough a shot for him.

Why even respond to this guy? He just argues in bad faith.

[OhayoKD]

FYI, if we look at PBPstats’ shot quality measure in RS+Playoffs in the past two years, it is Jokic that has had the toughest shot quality on the Nuggets (amongst players who have actually played at least 500 minutes). Murray is a close second. The same was true in 2019 and 2020 as well. And it’s the same story if we just limit what we look at to the playoffs they’ve played together. That model accounts for tons of factors, but notably doesn’t include how close the nearest defender is. On that front, though, it’s Jokic that is tightly guarded more often than Murray. For instance, as per NBA.com data, Jokic was “very tightly” defended on 3.0 FGAs per game this season, compared to 1.3 for Murray. And Jokic was “tightly” guarded on 9.2 FGAs per game this season, compared to 5.5 for Murray. On the flip side, Murray was “wide open” on 3.3 FGAs per game, compared to just 1.8 for Jokic. And Murray was “open” on 6.5 FGAs per game, compared to just 4.0 for Jokic. We see essentially the same story last season as well, with Jokic having substantially more FGAs per game where he was “very tightly” or “tightly” covered, while Murray had substantially more FGAs per game where he was “wide open” or “open.” The same story has played out in prior seasons together and the playoffs as well. So, if anything, the PBPstats shot quality model is probably underestimating how tough Jokic’s shots are compared to Murray’s, and it still has Jokic with the tougher shot quality. Jokic takes a lot of objectively really tough shots—it’s just that he takes tons of shots that are really tough for like everyone but him (most prominently, his floater). I really don’t think it’s accurate to say Murray “absorbs the toughest selection of shots” unless we are just internalizing the fact that Jokic is so good that nothing is really all that tough a shot for him.

Why even respond to this guy? He just argues in bad faith.

Uh huh

It can be funny to see some reach this far to prop up a player just to take down his teammate several pegs.

Make points, use evidence when u can, admit when wrong. This isn't hard.

[Bidofo]

The 'away' team actually has won every game in a series before.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2020-nba-eastern-conference-semifinals-celtics-vs-raptors.html

[Special_Puppy]

This is a crazy stat:

Murray is scoring on 46% TS this playoffs - this is among the 10 worst in NBA playoffs history dating back to the start of the 3-point era.

Worse yet?

He's taking the most shots on his own team.

Why is Denver letting him take so many shots at this point?

[Peregrine01]

This is a crazy stat:

Murray is scoring on 46% TS this playoffs - this is among the 10 worst in NBA playoffs history dating back to the start of the 3-point era.

Worse yet?

He's taking the most shots on his own team.

Why is Denver letting him take so many shots at this point?

I think a couple reasons:

1. Murray has the ball in his hands more than any other player
2. Murray wants to shoot himself out of slumps
3. Jokic is going out of his way to get him going

[Heej]

Damn, the best time of the year is about to end. With the play-ins, first round, and second round, we basically get at least two games per night for over a month. We only got one game tonight. Obviously the CFs and Finals are cool, but can't beat the combination of volume and no off days.

Three out of four Semis are insanely good this year. We could get three Game 7s out of it.

They're saying OG is out for Game 6 but could be back for Game 7. Hamstrings linger, but I'm hopeful. Hopefully we take care of business in Indy to give OG - to give everybody - some rest should we advance.

Losing that Game 5 in MSG against Philly really sucked. First to 16 wins is a war of attrition more than anything, and that means taking care of business the first opportunity you have.

2nd round has always been my favorite round man. It's all supposedly contender level teams left and like you said we get 2 good games a night. This year's 2nd round has been one of the most fun ones for me in a long time.

[sp6r=underrated]

2nd round has always been my favorite round man.

Same. You get 2 games a night until teams start getting knocked out and usually only 1 no-hoper is left.

My ideal playoff format is:
1 Seed: Bye
2-5: Guaranteed playoff spot
6-9: Play-in

Round 1
2-7
3-6
4-5

Round 2-4: Same

I doubt this proposal costs the NBA revenue unlike proposals to shave game off the RS. In the 1st round the games are competing against each other and it just drags on way too long. And giving the 1 spot a bye really increases the incentive for the top teams to go all out in the RS and also gives fans of the contenders something to stay interested in.

[sp6r=underrated]

This is a crazy stat:

Murray is scoring on 46% TS this playoffs - this is among the 10 worst in NBA playoffs history dating back to the start of the 3-point era.

Worse yet?

He's taking the most shots on his own team.

Why is Denver letting him take so many shots at this point?

I think a couple reasons:

1. Murray has the ball in his hands more than any other player
2. Murray wants to shoot himself out of slumps
3. Jokic is going out of his way to get him going

Yup, one of my favorite players growing up was John Starks. Murray belongs to that lineage. He's going to keep shooting no matter how poorly he plays. I was surprised that in the 2ndQ last night how quickly Malone brought him back in. They're still getting wrecked but the team looked better with him on the bench.

Malone should have used G6 to see how the team does with him tied to the bench. And he has to be ready to pull him if he comes out like trash tomorrow. Murray has made clear he will keep shooting no matter what.

[Special_Puppy]

Why is Denver letting him take so many shots at this point?

I think a couple reasons:

1. Murray has the ball in his hands more than any other player
2. Murray wants to shoot himself out of slumps
3. Jokic is going out of his way to get him going

Yup, one of my favorite players growing up was John Starks. Murray belongs to that lineage. He's going to keep shooting no matter how poorly he plays. I was surprised that in the 2ndQ last night how quickly Malone brought him back in. They're still getting wrecked but the team looked better with him on the bench.

Malone should have used G6 to see how the team does with him tied to the bench. And he has to be ready to pull him if he comes out like trash tomorrow. Murray has made clear he will keep shooting no matter what.

Problem with the Nuggets is that they have 0 depth so even if Murray is playing incredibly poorly they can't replace him with someone they can trust

[sp6r=underrated]

I think a couple reasons:

1. Murray has the ball in his hands more than any other player
2. Murray wants to shoot himself out of slumps
3. Jokic is going out of his way to get him going

Yup, one of my favorite players growing up was John Starks. Murray belongs to that lineage. He's going to keep shooting no matter how poorly he plays. I was surprised that in the 2ndQ last night how quickly Malone brought him back in. They're still getting wrecked but the team looked better with him on the bench.

Malone should have used G6 to see how the team does with him tied to the bench. And he has to be ready to pull him if he comes out like trash tomorrow. Murray has made clear he will keep shooting no matter what.

Problem with the Nuggets is that they have 0 depth so even if Murray is playing incredibly poorly they can't replace him with someone they can trust

Murray has been a below replacement level player. And as I said they should have used the 2ndQ last night as an extended experiment.

[Ron Swanson]

So much focus on Murray's struggles this series and while fair, he's definitely playing hurt. Ant is also getting next to nothing from his co-stars offensively, though. Maybe I shouldn't be surprised by it any more, but KAT has been invisible outside of the first two games. He's quickly approaching the Mt. Rushmore of "can't trust him in the playoffs" dudes. That's pretty much the reason I'm still picking Denver to take this in seven. Gordon has been far and away the 3rd best player in this series, and even on a gimpy calf, I'm still trusting Murray to make some big shots. I have zero faith in KAT rising to the occasion in a Game 7 at this point.

[life_saver]

2nd round has always been my favorite round man.

Same. You get 2 games a night until teams start getting knocked out and usually only 1 no-hoper is left.

My ideal playoff format is:
1 Seed: Bye
2-5: Guaranteed playoff spot
6-9: Play-in

Round 1
2-7
3-6
4-5

Round 2-4: Same

I doubt this proposal costs the NBA revenue unlike proposals to shave game off the RS. In the 1st round the games are competing against each other and it just drags on way too long. And giving the 1 spot a bye really increases the incentive for the top teams to go all out in the RS and also gives fans of the contenders something to stay interested in.

I agree..this is my preferred format. I do like Play-in and I think addition of bye for No1 seed would make things even more interesting in RS.

[Special_Puppy]

According to EPM...
Expected Wins of Jokic these playoffs: 2.6
Expected Wins of Ant these playoffs: 2.4 (Higher EPM than Jokic though. He's just played one less game)

Expected Wins of Jokic's supporting cast these playoffs: 1.3
Expected Wins of Ant's supporting cast these playoffs: 3.1

EPM can be really funky in small sample sizes though so beware

[life_saver]

So much focus on Murray's struggles this series and while fair, he's definitely playing hurt. Ant is getting next to nothing from his co-stars offensively too, though. Maybe I shouldn't be surprised by it any more, but KAT has been invisible outside of the first two games. He's quickly approaching the Mt. Rushmore of "can't trust him in the playoffs" dudes. That's pretty much the reason I'm still picking Denver to take this in seven. Gordon has been far and away the 3rd best player in this series, and even on a gimpy calf, I'm still trusting Murray to make some big shots. I have zero faith in KAT rising to the occasion in a Game 7 at this point.

KAT had a decent game offensively in G5 and he had a good game yesterday too despite not scoring a lot. His decision making yesterday was great which is quite critical for Wolves offense. Wolves offense will always have good games whenever KAT plays in flow and makes good decisions...he has done that quite well this playoffs for the most part, not sure what happened in G4 but that was the game where reverted back to old habits. But yesterday he played quite well, passed from post at right occasions and Wolves used KAT's gravity pretty well yesterday.