2012-13 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

ceiling raiser · Post #321 » by **ceiling raiser** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 3:49 am

If he continues playing well, Duncan might jump CP3 into third on my list.

GSP · Post #322 » by **GSP** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 6:05 am

fpliii wrote:If he continues playing well, Duncan might jump CP3 into third on my list.

He was horrible on offense. 19 shots 20pts. This is not prime Timmy he barely has any impact on offense anymore hes all defense like Kg theres no way he can make top 3 and Cp3 had a better series against Grizz.

sp6r=underrated · Post #323 » by **sp6r=underrated** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 3:21 pm

As said before, the top 3 on any sensible ballot is locked in: 1. Lebron, 2. Durant, 3. Paul. I don't see how anyone can or should pass them on the list. All of the players below them have clear flaws.

GSP, I respectfully disagree on Duncan's G1 having no impact on offense. His passing was excellent throughout the game and created a lot of open looks for shooters. Literally, he hits one more shot and his efficiency is fine.

E-Balla · Post #324 » by **E-Balla** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 3:54 pm

GSP wrote:
fpliii wrote:If he continues playing well, Duncan might jump CP3 into third on my list.

He was horrible on offense. 19 shots 20pts. This is not prime Timmy he barely has any impact on offense anymore hes all defense like Kg theres no way he can make top 3 and Cp3 had a better series against Grizz.

Did you watch the game? Even in the first quarter when he was 0-5 he had 3 assists. The second his shots started falling he took over for the next 2 quarters.

ceiling raiser · Post #325 » by **ceiling raiser** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 4:45 pm

GSP wrote:
fpliii wrote:If he continues playing well, Duncan might jump CP3 into third on my list.

He was horrible on offense. 19 shots 20pts. This is not prime Timmy he barely has any impact on offense anymore hes all defense like Kg theres no way he can make top 3 and Cp3 had a better series against Grizz.

Just my opinion...

Offensive contributions aren't entirely described by points per shot. There were 5 guys listed by oddsmakers as Finals MVP candidates (I'm not a big awards guy, but it gives a nice list to look at for the purpose of this thread):

LeBron James - 18 points on 16 shots (1.13)
Tony Parker - 21 points on 18 shots (1.17)
Tim Duncan - 20 points on 19 shots (1.05)
Dwyane Wade - 17 points on 15 shots (1.13)
Chris Bosh - 13 points on 16 shots (0.81)

For a single game, everybody (with the exception of Bosh) is bunched closely together. If you look at shots created via both passing assists and screens set (especially when Parker thrives off picks), I think the two Spurs stars were approximately equal on that end. SLIGHT EDGE - Parker (clutch shots are big in a small sample, though if they continue to play this way over a series, Parker likely won't win four games on huge shots in the last minute of the fourth quarter; that being said, I expect him to outweigh Duncan's offensive contributions over the course of the series).

Defensively, Duncan didn't allow players to drive with great success when he was on the court (Splitter had an overall poor game, but he has to get some credit for this). Part of this can be attributed to Miami leaving either a) leaving a non-scorer on the floor or b) going small, both of which allow TD to roam and guard the interior in a relative zone. EDGE - Duncan

Rebounding goes to Duncan, no contest. If one only views offense/defense as phases of the game instead, I think the possessions added by offensive rebounds make offense a draw. EDGE - Duncan

Timmy doesn't have to be his prime self to have the most impact on the floor in a given night (see Garnett, Kevin...I'm not sure why you cited that comparison, as it's not really an indictment of Duncan), and bigs can by nature have more of an effect on games than smalls.

ElGee · Post #326 » by **ElGee** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 5:13 pm

EDIT: was missing a few possessions -- I've added them in.

That games last night like was basketball crack. That was Lakers-Celtics 84 stuff to me. The lineup chess. The incredible cross-matches. The action of both offenses and the action-reaction of nearly every set. Parker and LeBron are off the charts in their reads sometimes. Very few turnovers, incredible rotations by both defenses -- it was an amazingly high-quality game. Anyway, here's what Duncan did in G1:

Tim Duncan 2013 NBA Finals Game Log:

Spoiler:

Summary:

Offensive shooting matchups (Duncan shot 8-19)
v Bosh 1-4
v James 1-2
v Miller 0-1
v Andersen 1-1
v Battier 1-1.5
v Anthony 1-1.5
v Haslem 1-1
Open 2-7

Defensive shooting matchups (opponents were 5-9 against Duncan)
v Bosh 1-1
v James 3-3
v Cole 1-1
v Wade 0-2
v Andersen 0-1
v Anthony 0-1

Offense
Opportunities Created: 1
Fouls Drawn: 3
Helped Offense: 3 jumpers, 1 offensive rebound putback, 2 FTA's

Defense
Forced Turnovers: 1
Shots against: 6-10.5
Shooting Foul Shots: 4

Raw Expected Value: +1.0 Offense, +0.7 Defense, +1.7 total

Given that Duncan had 2 good deters as well on defense and is an excellent screener (and reader) in the 1-5 PnR that San Antonio ran to death last night, I'd say his overall game contribution was slightly higher than EV captures. Furthermore, his numbers are deflated because when he matched LeBron, he was schooled. Nonetheless, that was not a good game by EV, and from a results-oriented standpoint, it was not a strong game from Duncan. It would be a stretch to call it "bad," but I wouldn't call it good either.

Vinsanity420 · Post #327 » by **Vinsanity420** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 6:34 pm

I wonder if Duncan's any better than KG this year. Their defense is comparable and neither is great on offense. Looking at Duncan last night, he had a 31% usage rate and only a 101 O-Rating. That's pretty bad. He consumed a lot of offensive positions, and wasn't very efficient. He's been like that throughout these playoffs. Taking up a 27 USG rate and producing a 102 O-Rating isn't anything to write home about. I would be voting him in the Top 5 based primarily on his D. Is that more valuable than what Harden or Curry bring to the floor?

Roleplayers like Danny Green, Gary Neal and Kawhi Leonard will decide this for the Spurs. Danny Green hit 4 of 9 3's last night, that was much needed. As Mysticbb would call it... THE SPACING EFFECT!

sp6r=underrated · Post #328 » by **sp6r=underrated** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 10:55 pm

where would you guys rank Game 1 of the Finals last night for overall play and drama amongst previous NBA Finals Game 1?

HeartBreakKid · Post #329 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 12:48 am

sp6r=underrated wrote:where would you guys rank Game 1 of the Finals last night for overall play and drama amongst previous NBA Finals Game 1?

It's hard for me to vividly remember playoff games like that (outside of game 6's and 7s).

I will say that the game was fantastic display of basketball from both sides. Def has the potential to be a great series.

ElGee · Post #330 » by **ElGee** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 10:53 pm

Vinsanity420 wrote:I wonder if Duncan's any better than KG this year. Their defense is comparable and neither is great on offense. Looking at Duncan last night, he had a 31% usage rate and only a 101 O-Rating. That's pretty bad. He consumed a lot of offensive positions, and wasn't very efficient. He's been like that throughout these playoffs. Taking up a 27 USG rate and producing a 102 O-Rating isn't anything to write home about. I would be voting him in the Top 5 based primarily on his D. Is that more valuable than what Harden or Curry bring to the floor?

Roleplayers like Danny Green, Gary Neal and Kawhi Leonard will decide this for the Spurs. Danny Green hit 4 of 9 3's last night, that was much needed. As Mysticbb would call it... THE SPACING EFFECT!

I would agree with that if you said KG last year. That's a good comparison. My issue with KG this year is he just ran out of steam at the end of the year. There was a period I thought he was pretty vitalized post-Rondo injury, but he didn't have much in his legs IMO at the end of the season.

As for Curry, I have him firmly in the mix right now. One of the reasons is because of how portable he is. I also think people tend to underrate him defensively...and offensively he's a whiz. He's not quite on that Chris Paul level (different player) or the Kevin Durant off-ball magic (different player), but as someone who is kind of a hybrid of those styles, he's remarkable. He spaces, kills you off-ball, shoots on ball, and creates and penetrates like crazy. I think he's definitely an elite offensive player in this league right now, and headed for great things.

I'm very skeptical of raw on/off in the PS (sample size). But GS's offense with Curry ON in this year's PS was pushing 110. The guy was an animal. He's eating up attention like Reggie Miller off the ball on nearly every possession, but he can pop and score on you with the ball as well, and did some wonderful thing in the high PnR action as the season progressed. If you read Zach Lowe, I think that was as big a key to him "exploding" down the stretch of the season as anything -- he learned (with Jackson's green light) to find space around the screener and use his threat of shooting to do just that: shoot. It became a pick your poison for defenses.

I'll discuss Tony Parker this coming week...

colts18 · Post #331 » by **colts18** » Sun Jun 9, 2013 12:58 am

ElGee wrote:That games last night like was basketball crack. That was Lakers-Celtics 84 stuff to me. The lineup chess. The incredible cross-matches. The action of both offenses and the action-reaction of nearly every set. Parker and LeBron are off the charts in their reads sometimes. Very few turnovers, incredible rotations by both defenses -- it was an amazingly high-quality game. Anyway, here's what Duncan did in G1:

Tim Duncan 2013 NBA Finals Game Log:

Spoiler:
-started the game with a TOV (Bosh steal)

-committed a shooting foul against Wade

-made a great hustle play to force a turnover early on a James outlet (note: Duncan was not credited for a steal here, which is yet another example of the box score not capturing causality, which is why I use the measurement "forced turnovers" on defense.")

-early on he was part of some fierce cross-matching and ended up LeBron, who isoed and scored into him.

-he missed a contested shot in the lane against Bosh

-he missed an open PnP shot that Parker created for him

-He caught PnR deep in the line and Mike Miller came over with excellent help to successfully defend his shot

-He rotated to rim protect against LBJ, who blew by Diaw when Boris went for a steal, and Duncan picked up a shooting foul.

-Duncan caught in the pinch post area and backed down Chris Andersen, before whirling for 2.

-Great help defense block on Chris Andersen after Wade layed it off to an open Birdman

-Duncan posted on the left block and was fouled by Andersen on a spin move.

-Neal created 2 FTA's for Duncan on PnR (Allen and Cole botched this assigment) and Timmy was fouled from behind by Bosh to save a bucket

-Duncan ended up with a deep post catch against Bosh and he scored on him

-Parker curls off a screen and draws defense to create an open elbow jumper for Duncan, who misses

-In transition, Cole drives into Duncan and scores

-Manu uses staggered screens to create an open corner 3 for Green. This leads to a "created" offensive putback by Duncan as the defense was still scrambled.

-SAS again uses a 1-5 PnR, Battier switches onto Duncan. Duncan scores an easy layup deep against Shane.

-The next time, Duncan goes at Joel Anthony but Battier blocks his shot on help

-Duncan with a marvelous block on Anthony, where he guarded (and deterred) Wade through the lane, then recovered to block Anthony behind him. Vintage Duncan there.

-The buzzer-beater at the end of the first half in Joel Anthony's face

***

-Duncan misses a contested 16-footer over Haslem

-Leonard (I think) used a screen to break down Wade and create an open 17-footer for Duncan (who hit)

-Blocked a Wade drive in the open court

-Against Haslem down low, spins and scores

-The on defense, deflected the ball into backcourt, eating up clock

-After a failed 1-5 PnR, Duncan misses a 15-footer over Bosh

-After a Miami steal, Duncan ends up isolated on Wade in the corner. He does a fine job preventing anything bad from happening. (No bucket, no breakdown.)

-Duncan catches on a PnR and is again met by Miller on help -- this time Duncan turns it over

At this point there is 3:53 left in the 3rd and Miami has a 64-62 lead. Duncan plays a quiet 2 more minutes before resting before checking back in with 7:47 left in the 4th and the Spurs up 77-76.

-Bosh catches and hits against Duncan from midrange, as Duncan took a brief step to help out on Ray Allen backcutting.

-The next trip Duncan posts Bosh deep but passed out to an open Neal who came of a screen and missed.

-San Antonio starts a blitz of 1-5 PnR with Parker and Duncan. This one leads to Duncan posting deep into Bosh, spinning and missing against Chris.

-Duncan another shooting foul protecting the rim, this time against Ray Allen

-Manu ran PnR with Duncan, and Duncan scampered right down the lane to tip in a Leonard miss right over the top of LeBron James

-SAS runs the 1-5 again, but this time James rotates onto Duncan at the rim and stops him (Duncan barely releases a functional shot)

-After a Miami timeout (85-79 Spurs), LBJ and Bosh run PnR, with Bosh misseing over Danny Green...but James has revenge and grabs the board and the putback next to Duncan.

-Spurs run 1-5 again, and Duncan creates a shot off the ball with a hard roll that Bosh lags on. This sucks defenders into the lane and creates an open Danny Green 3 (make).

-Duncan is switched onto LeBron who drives and scores against him.

-SAS runs a 2-5 PnR and Duncan is fouled by Bosh in the act

-On the game's final play, Duncan defends Wade very well at the rim.

Summary:

Offensive shooting matchups (Duncan shot 8-19)
v Bosh 1-4
v James 1-2
v Miller 0-1
v Andersen 1-1
v Battier 1-1.5
v Anthony 1-1.5
v Haslem 1-2
Open 2-5

Defensive shooting matchups (opponents were 5-9 against Duncan)
v Bosh 1-1
v James 3-3
v Cole 1-1
v Wade 0-2
v Andersen 0-1
v Anthony 0-1

Offense
Opportunities Created: 1
Fouls Drawn: 2
Helped Offense: 3 jumpers (1-3), 1 offensive rebound putback, 2 FTA's

Defense
Forced Turnovers: 1
Shots against: 5-9
Shooting Foul Shots: 6

Raw Expected Value: +0.8 Offense, +0.3 Defense, +1.1 total

Given that Duncan had 2 good deters as well on defense and is an excellent screener (and reader) in the 1-5 PnR that San Antonio ran to death last night, I'd say his overall game contribution was slightly higher than EV captures. Furthermore, his numbers are deflated because when he matched LeBron, he was schooled. Nonetheless, that was not a good game by EV, and from a results-oriented standpoint, it was not a strong game from Duncan. It would be a stretch to call it "bad," but I wouldn't call it good either.

Did you keep track of LeBron's defense? Specifically vs. Parker and Leonard?

GSP · Post #332 » by **GSP** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 3:29 am

Duncan was awful. Was he even better defender than Lebron this season?

E-Balla · Post #333 » by **E-Balla** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:13 am

GSP wrote:Duncan was awful. Was he even better defender than Lebron this season?

Yes. Easily. Lebron barely played defense for half the year.

And can we all agree this is the weakest top 5 ever? Even Lebron is rapidly dropping in stock but nothing short of a collapse of 2011 proportions can take him out the top spot.

GSP · Post #334 » by **GSP** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:50 am

GC Pantalones wrote:
GSP wrote:Duncan was awful. Was he even better defender than Lebron this season?

Yes. Easily. Lebron barely played defense for half the year.

And can we all agree this is the weakest top 5 ever? Even Lebron is rapidly dropping in stock but nothing short of a collapse of 2011 proportions can take him out the top spot.

There is NO way Lebron will not be 1. Did you see how Kd played against Memphis? Lebron had by far best RS he is undisputed 1st place. I agree its weak after top 3 tho

E-Balla · Post #335 » by **E-Balla** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:54 am

It's slightly a little bit possible maybe that if Lebron chokes the next 3 soke will vote for KD. It is impossible realistically.

Also beyond Lebron and KD it's a weak top 5. CP3 wasn't up to the form he was at last year (or any healthy year since 08).

ElGee · Post #336 » by **ElGee** » Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:18 am

colts18 wrote:
ElGee wrote:That games last night like was basketball crack. That was Lakers-Celtics 84 stuff to me. The lineup chess. The incredible cross-matches. The action of both offenses and the action-reaction of nearly every set. Parker and LeBron are off the charts in their reads sometimes. Very few turnovers, incredible rotations by both defenses -- it was an amazingly high-quality game. Anyway, here's what Duncan did in G1:

Tim Duncan 2013 NBA Finals Game Log:

Spoiler:
-started the game with a TOV (Bosh steal)

-committed a shooting foul against Wade

-made a great hustle play to force a turnover early on a James outlet (note: Duncan was not credited for a steal here, which is yet another example of the box score not capturing causality, which is why I use the measurement "forced turnovers" on defense.")

-early on he was part of some fierce cross-matching and ended up LeBron, who isoed and scored into him.

-he missed a contested shot in the lane against Bosh

-he missed an open PnP shot that Parker created for him

-He caught PnR deep in the line and Mike Miller came over with excellent help to successfully defend his shot

-He rotated to rim protect against LBJ, who blew by Diaw when Boris went for a steal, and Duncan picked up a shooting foul.

-Duncan caught in the pinch post area and backed down Chris Andersen, before whirling for 2.

-Great help defense block on Chris Andersen after Wade layed it off to an open Birdman

-Duncan posted on the left block and was fouled by Andersen on a spin move.

-Neal created 2 FTA's for Duncan on PnR (Allen and Cole botched this assigment) and Timmy was fouled from behind by Bosh to save a bucket

-Duncan ended up with a deep post catch against Bosh and he scored on him

-Parker curls off a screen and draws defense to create an open elbow jumper for Duncan, who misses

-In transition, Cole drives into Duncan and scores

-Manu uses staggered screens to create an open corner 3 for Green. This leads to a "created" offensive putback by Duncan as the defense was still scrambled.

-SAS again uses a 1-5 PnR, Battier switches onto Duncan. Duncan scores an easy layup deep against Shane.

-The next time, Duncan goes at Joel Anthony but Battier blocks his shot on help

-Duncan with a marvelous block on Anthony, where he guarded (and deterred) Wade through the lane, then recovered to block Anthony behind him. Vintage Duncan there.

-The buzzer-beater at the end of the first half in Joel Anthony's face

***

-Duncan misses a contested 16-footer over Haslem

-Leonard (I think) used a screen to break down Wade and create an open 17-footer for Duncan (who hit)

-Blocked a Wade drive in the open court

-Against Haslem down low, spins and scores

-The on defense, deflected the ball into backcourt, eating up clock

-After a failed 1-5 PnR, Duncan misses a 15-footer over Bosh

-After a Miami steal, Duncan ends up isolated on Wade in the corner. He does a fine job preventing anything bad from happening. (No bucket, no breakdown.)

-Duncan catches on a PnR and is again met by Miller on help -- this time Duncan turns it over

At this point there is 3:53 left in the 3rd and Miami has a 64-62 lead. Duncan plays a quiet 2 more minutes before resting before checking back in with 7:47 left in the 4th and the Spurs up 77-76.

-Bosh catches and hits against Duncan from midrange, as Duncan took a brief step to help out on Ray Allen backcutting.

-The next trip Duncan posts Bosh deep but passed out to an open Neal who came of a screen and missed.

-San Antonio starts a blitz of 1-5 PnR with Parker and Duncan. This one leads to Duncan posting deep into Bosh, spinning and missing against Chris.

-Duncan another shooting foul protecting the rim, this time against Ray Allen

-Manu ran PnR with Duncan, and Duncan scampered right down the lane to tip in a Leonard miss right over the top of LeBron James

-SAS runs the 1-5 again, but this time James rotates onto Duncan at the rim and stops him (Duncan barely releases a functional shot)

-After a Miami timeout (85-79 Spurs), LBJ and Bosh run PnR, with Bosh misseing over Danny Green...but James has revenge and grabs the board and the putback next to Duncan.

-Spurs run 1-5 again, and Duncan creates a shot off the ball with a hard roll that Bosh lags on. This sucks defenders into the lane and creates an open Danny Green 3 (make).

-Duncan is switched onto LeBron who drives and scores against him.

-SAS runs a 2-5 PnR and Duncan is fouled by Bosh in the act

-On the game's final play, Duncan defends Wade very well at the rim.

Summary:

Offensive shooting matchups (Duncan shot 8-19)
v Bosh 1-4
v James 1-2
v Miller 0-1
v Andersen 1-1
v Battier 1-1.5
v Anthony 1-1.5
v Haslem 1-2
Open 2-5

Defensive shooting matchups (opponents were 5-9 against Duncan)
v Bosh 1-1
v James 3-3
v Cole 1-1
v Wade 0-2
v Andersen 0-1
v Anthony 0-1

Offense
Opportunities Created: 1
Fouls Drawn: 2
Helped Offense: 3 jumpers (1-3), 1 offensive rebound putback, 2 FTA's

Defense
Forced Turnovers: 1
Shots against: 5-9
Shooting Foul Shots: 6

Raw Expected Value: +0.8 Offense, +0.3 Defense, +1.1 total

Given that Duncan had 2 good deters as well on defense and is an excellent screener (and reader) in the 1-5 PnR that San Antonio ran to death last night, I'd say his overall game contribution was slightly higher than EV captures. Furthermore, his numbers are deflated because when he matched LeBron, he was schooled. Nonetheless, that was not a good game by EV, and from a results-oriented standpoint, it was not a strong game from Duncan. It would be a stretch to call it "bad," but I wouldn't call it good either.

Did you keep track of LeBron's defense? Specifically vs. Parker and Leonard?

LeBron defense in guarded situations (meaning how players shot against him):

G1
v Parker 2-3
v Leonard 1-1

G2
v Parker 0-1
v Leonard 0-1

I'll post some more information shortly on the series.

ElGee · Post #337 » by **ElGee** » Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:47 am

Series contributions through 2 games:

Raw Expected Value:
James 18.0
Bosh 15.4
Allen 15.3
Green 12.8
Chalmers 9.5
Miller 8.8
Leonard 7.9
Parker 6.4
...
Wade 1.3
...
Duncan -1.6

Opportunities Created
James 15
Parker 10
Wade 6
Ginobili 6
Duncan 1

DEFENSE
FG% against, 2 point shots (guarding situations)
Bosh 32.3%
Green 37.1%
Parker 40%
James 46.4%
Leonard 60%
Duncan 62.9%

Help Needed on defense (extra defender joined in stopping offensive player)
Leonard 9
Green 8
Parker 3
Wade 3
James 1
Bosh 1
Duncan 0

colts18 · Post #338 » by **colts18** » Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:54 am

Can you put that 18 EV and 15 OC in context? How good are those numbers?

ElGee · Post #339 » by **ElGee** » Tue Jun 11, 2013 4:52 am

colts18 wrote:Can you put that 18 EV and 15 OC in context? How good are those numbers?

15 OC's in two games is very good. 20 would be elite.

18 raw EV over two games (9.0 per game) in perspective:

Pau Gasol led the 2010 FInals in raw EV contributions (9.1 per game).
Kobe was second with 7.8.
Dirk 2011 CF 8.1.
Paul 2011 1st round v LA 10.8.
Kobe's 2010 CF against Pho 11.7.
Wade 2011 Finals 12.6.
James 2010 1st round v Chicago was 17.3.

Gregoire · Post #340 » by **Gregoire** » Tue Jun 11, 2013 7:49 am

ElGee wrote:
colts18 wrote:Can you put that 18 EV and 15 OC in context? How good are those numbers?

15 OC's in two games is very good. 20 would be elite.

18 raw EV over two games (9.0 per game) in perspective:

Pau Gasol led the 2010 FInals in raw EV contributions (9.1 per game).
Kobe was second with 7.8.
Dirk 2011 CF 8.1.
Paul 2011 1st round v LA 10.8.
Kobe's 2010 CF against Pho 11.7.
Wade 2011 Finals 12.6.
James 2010 1st round v Chicago was 17.3.

Where did you get EV numbers?