Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[fishercob]

I hope we come away from this draft with a center with big defensive upside. There seem to be many more such guys than in a typical draft. So whether it's moving up for Noel, or Len, Adams, Gobert, Lucas Nogueira, Jaiteh -- or even one of the older guys like Dieng or Withey -- I hope we get a young defensive center.

I agree. There have been a lot of good young C's as of late and this draft is deeper than most in terms of Center talent. A Pekovic/Vucevic type pickup in Adams/Len at the expense of Porter almost makes it seem worth it.

Well the fact that there are so many guys leads me in the other direction. If I can get a guy with nearly as much upside in the late first or early second, it may not be worth sacrificing Porter. Nogueira is a guy I have my eye on in this regard. But if we do "sacrifice Porter" hopefully it's for a guy like Ilyasova that can also allows us to grab an Adams or Gobert in the middle of the 1R.

[Ruzious]

I haven't read anything saying Wall wants us to draft a specfic player. I wouldn't worry about what Wall wants at this stage, although he's right about wanting a stretch 4 and a 3rd guard.

The only 4 who has legitimately shown stretch 4 ability is Bennett, so he may as well have simply said it.

I'm starting to think he might be the pick. That in combination with Ernies comments about how he may have chosen the guy at 3 that may have been available at 8, Bennett falls right in line with his and Walls comments.

Imo, there's no chance they pick him at 3. He doesn't fit the profile of what they're trying to project - either on court (lack of D) or off court (doesn't interview well or come across like a boy scout). Not to mention a lot of other issues - nobody seems to know about his reach - though we do know he's short, he's got asthma issues, he's been very injury-prone, why so few assists compared to to's, etc. If they trade down, maybe there's a small chance they pick him.

[pancakes3]

Personally I have no interest in Gobert or Nogueira. It's McGee and Vesely in younger sheep's clothing. Adams and Dieng are the draft bargains in my estimation. Both are going to go about 5 spots lower than where they should. Adams should fall no lower than 12 to the thunder and Dieng 16th to the C's. However right now according to DX they're slotted 16th and 20th respectively thanks to the "crowding" of Gobert and Plumlee (2 guys that will be drafted 5 spots too high imo).

However, if you can package a deal that nets us Ilyasova and Adams in exchange for Nene, the 3rd, and filler... I'd put you as the frontrunner for realgm.com GM of the year.

[nate33]

Is anybody actually going to draft Plumlee in the late lotto? I have trouble believing it. I've never come across anybody in these message boards that has said, "Man! I just WISH we can come out of this draft with Mason Plumlee!"

[Dark Faze]

I still don't know that a stretch 4 is a need though. As long as Wall plays up to his potential we should be winning a lot of games with a lineup of Wall/Beal/Porter/Nene/Okafor with Web and Ariza as guys off the bench.

Having a permanent stretch 4 as a starter simply changes the DNA of this team that we just recently started to generate some success with.

[fishercob]

Personally I have no interest in Gobert or Nogueira. It's McGee and Vesely in younger sheep's clothing. Adams and Dieng are the draft bargains in my estimation. Both are going to go about 5 spots lower than where they should. Adams should fall no lower than 12 to the thunder and Dieng 16th to the C's. However right now according to DX they're slotted 16th and 20th respectively thanks to the "crowding" of Gobert and Plumlee (2 guys that will be drafted 5 spots too high imo).

However, if you can package a deal that nets us Ilyasova and Adams in exchange for Nene, the 3rd, and filler... I'd put you as the frontrunner for realgm.com GM of the year.

Had Javale McGee never existed, we could just as easily be talking about Gobert and Nogueira in terms of Tysons Chandler, Marcus Camby, Larry Sanders, and other accomplished rebounder/shotblockers who are long and thin.

Javale failed because here because he was hopelessly unaware of his own shortcomings -- he dribbled too much, shot too much and from the wrong places, and always went for the highlight block instead of the solid defensive positioning and just using his length to bother people.

I haven't seen nearly enough of Gobert or Lucas to have a sense of how good they will be or whether they'll be drafted too high or low. Respectfully, I doubt you or anyone else here has either. But both have been on the radar of professional draftniks who have touted their potential for over a year. That means something to me.

[rockymac52]

Is anybody actually going to draft Plumlee in the late lotto? I have trouble believing it. I've never come across anybody in these message boards that has said, "Man! I just WISH we can come out of this draft with Mason Plumlee!"

Took the words right out of my mouth. I have never seen a projected late lotto/mid 1st round pick have less buzz. There doesn't seem to be any upside to Plumlee, and no one is talking about him (fans and experts). But he remains a lock in most rankings and mock drafts to go late lotto or mid 1st. What team in that range actually wants to pick a player with nothing special to write home about and hardly any upside? Or does he have some upside that we just aren't considering because no one is talking about him? I'm starting to think he's going to fall to the late 1st because even if he's supposed to be decent, no one actually WANTS him.

[payitforward]

...A Pekovic/Vucevic type pickup in Adams/Len at the expense of Porter almost makes it seem worth it.

Gee, really? I mean Vukovic is probably the best young C in the league (after Drummond), so I guess yeah he'd be better than an unknown wouldn't he?

But you don't get to pick a known quantity; you only get to pick an unknown. And what is there that makes you think Len or Adams is a "Pekovic/Vucevic type pickup" -- as opposed to being e.g. a Meyers Leonard, Tyler Zeller, Cole Aldrich, Ekpe Udoh, Daniel Orton, Dexter Pitman, Hasheem Thabeet "type pickup."

At the 3d pick, and at the 53d pick or any pick, you choose the best player available. You know what that gives you? That gives you the best player you can get at that pick. Duh.

The problem is our picker, who has managed to waste most of his precious picks over the last 3 years. His two "default" picks -- the guys any GM would have taken at their spots -- are the only ones who've actually worked out. His other three 2010 rookies (Seraphin, Booker and Crawford) amount to a zero so far (in Booker's case, to be fair, it's injuries not productivity). His three 2011 picks are all busts, and he threw away his two round 2 picks in 2012.

Makes it kind of pointless to ask him to be "creative" doesn't it? Here's hoping he isn't, and instead he just picks Otto Porter.

[rockymac52]

Personally I have no interest in Gobert or Nogueira. It's McGee and Vesely in younger sheep's clothing. Adams and Dieng are the draft bargains in my estimation. Both are going to go about 5 spots lower than where they should. Adams should fall no lower than 12 to the thunder and Dieng 16th to the C's. However right now according to DX they're slotted 16th and 20th respectively thanks to the "crowding" of Gobert and Plumlee (2 guys that will be drafted 5 spots too high imo).

However, if you can package a deal that nets us Ilyasova and Adams in exchange for Nene, the 3rd, and filler... I'd put you as the frontrunner for realgm.com GM of the year.

Had Javale McGee never existed, we could just as easily be talking about Gobert and Nogueira in terms of Tysons Chandler, Marcus Camby, Larry Sanders, and other accomplished rebounder/shotblockers who are long and thin.

Javale failed because here because he was hopelessly unaware of his own shortcomings -- he dribbled too much, shot too much and from the wrong places, and always went for the highlight block instead of the solid defensive positioning and just using his length to bother people.

I haven't seen nearly enough of Gobert or Lucas to have a sense of how good they will be or whether they'll be drafted too high or low. Respectfully, I doubt you or anyone else here has either. But both have been on the radar of professional draftniks who have touted their potential for over a year. That means something to me.

My take on those two guys, based on what I've read, the limited amount of game tape I've seen, and the advanced stats I've analyzed, is that Gobert looks like a massive project that I don't have any reason to believe will ever be even halfway decent, but Nogueira looks like the real deal. Nogueira is no doubt a project player himself, probably a draft and stash player who won't be ready to play in the NBA for another 3 or 4 years, but you can already see the upside to his game developing. Gobert, on the other hand, looks lost and awkward on the court, and other than his insane length, he doesn't bring much to the table.

I can't wait for the day that we have a contending team and enough depth that we can afford to spend late 1st round picks on draft and stash guys. It's such an unbelievable advantage. Let them develop for several years without hurting your current team, and you get to pay them their rookie scale salary whenever they finally make it over to the NBA (I think?). You often get a lottery, top ten talent, late in the 1st round. Such a steal.

I really wish we could somehow draft Nogueira (not with the 3rd pick, obviously), but I just don't see it happening unless he miraculously falls to us at 38. I can't completely explain why yet, but I really love this kid. I feel confident that in 4 years he's going to be arriving in the NBA and he's going to be a real game-changer. Also, his nickname is "Bebe" which means baby in Portuguese, and I think it'd be really cool to have Bebe and Nene (which also means baby in Portuguese I believe) on the same team.

[sfam]

if we get bennet I wonder, how he'll mix with dmc nxt yr...I think we should get porter, even though a front court of cousins and bennet would be offensively superior to all others except marc and zach

I know people on this board seem to love dmc more than life itself, but for my part, I hope the Wizards never consider bringing the guy in. He's like the modern version of the Chevy Corvair converted to NBA player - "Unsafe on any team". The dude is a thermonuclear response waiting to happen.

all cousins need is a friend...he wont let john wall down, wall expects too much from him and he respect wall...itll bring the fun back to cousins playin basketball...cousins like Dwight right now, giv Dwight a cp3 or james harden he'll be a happy camper, same with cousins

That would be great if true. I don't see it. Just because dmc listened to Wall as a Frosh in college doesn't mean he'll do it as an adult. Far more likely is we get more of the same.
Edit - fixed autocorrect

[verbal8]

I really wish we could somehow draft Nogueira (not with the 3rd pick, obviously), but I just don't see it happening unless he miraculously falls to us at 38. I can't completely explain why yet, but I really love this kid. I feel confident that in 4 years he's going to be arriving in the NBA and he's going to be a real game-changer. Also, his nickname is "Bebe" which means baby in Portuguese, and I think it'd be really cool to have Bebe and Nene (which also means baby in Portuguese I believe) on the same team.

I wonder if Booker and the 38th pick might convince a team to give up a late 1st that could be used on Nogueira. They might figure a known(Booker) and still have the potential upside of say Muscala at 38th might be a good deal.

[BruceO]

minnesota according to hoopshype wants to move up in the draft and shift derrick williams in order to do so. I looked at his game logs and wondered who they wanted to move up that badly for..might be oladipo..he got that quirky gilbert arenas work ethic..people love him like they loved beal last year. Good players available if a trade back happens

[rockymac52]

I really wish we could somehow draft Nogueira (not with the 3rd pick, obviously), but I just don't see it happening unless he miraculously falls to us at 38. I can't completely explain why yet, but I really love this kid. I feel confident that in 4 years he's going to be arriving in the NBA and he's going to be a real game-changer. Also, his nickname is "Bebe" which means baby in Portuguese, and I think it'd be really cool to have Bebe and Nene (which also means baby in Portuguese I believe) on the same team.

I wonder if Booker and the 38th pick might convince a team to give up a late 1st that could be used on Nogueira. They might figure a known(Booker) and still have the potential upside of say Muscala at 38th might be a good deal.

I think Booker + 38 could definitely land us a pick in the 21-30 range, which we could then use to draft and stash Nogueira. But I just don't see it happening. We are trying to compete this season, and while we (hopefully) aren't going all in at the expense of the future (see: Mike Miller/Randy Foye trade), we can't afford to lose 2 potentially solid guys (Booker + whoever we draft at 38) for this season and the short-term future. I'd love to make a Singleton/Vesely + 38 for 21-30 trade, but I'm not sure that's enough of an incentive for other teams, as they likely don't want Singleton or Vesely. Mayyybe we could swing a Seraphin + 38 deal, and mayyybe I'd consider it.

[payitforward]

This thread grows in a huge hurry! I'm having trouble keeping up.

Yet... it seems obvious to me that if we keep #3 pick, we'll pick Porter. He fits the bill in every possible way. To me he's a surer thing than Noel, and to say his upside is limited...? I don't get that. He's still 19.* He and Beal were freshmen the same year at the same age. Porter was at least as good as Beal, and then he improved as a sophomore.

I doubt there's any GM in the league who would pass on him at #3; my worry is that he gets taken @ #1 or 2.

And... it seems equally obvious to me that we'll keep the #3 pick. For that reason, all the speculation about Center prospects seems odd to me.


* Actually... today's Porter's birthday so he's turned 20.

[rockymac52]

This thread grows in a huge hurry! I'm having trouble keeping up.

Yet... it seems obvious to me that if we keep #3 pick, we'll pick Porter. He fits the bill in every possible way. To me he's a surer thing than Noel, and to say his upside is limited...? I don't get that. He's still 19.* He and Beal were freshmen the same year at the same age. Porter was at least as good as Beal, and then he improved as a sophomore.

I doubt there's any GM in the league who would pass on him at #3; my worry is that he gets taken @ #1 or 2.

And... it seems equally obvious to me that we'll keep the #3 pick. For that reason, all the speculation about Center prospects seems odd to me.


* Actually... today's Porter's birthday so he's turned 20.

I'm beginning to think some of the same things. Mainly that Porter is a very logical pick for us, and he is almost definitely who we plan on picking with the 3rd pick. I don't think we will be trading the 3rd pick. I don't think we will be acquiring another lottery pick. Maybe we'll acquire a mid to late 1st somehow.

However, I'm not really worried about Porter being gone before our pick. Even if the Cavs like him, I think they're picking Noel 1st, or they're trading the pick to another team that will take Noel 1st. The Magic could go in a number of directions with their pick, but SF (Porter) is not one of them. They already have Harkless and Harris. SF is simply not a position of need for them going forward. Even if they love Porter, I'm sure they feel really like a few other guys that play a different position as well. Thus, Porter falls to us, and we take him.

The worst case scenario is that somehow Porter and Noel are both taken 1 and 2, and then we have to decide what to do with our pick. That's when we can get into all of these theories and potential options (and I enjoy doing this, so I'm going to continue to do so), but in reality, this is a waste of our time, because it isn't going to happen. We're drafting Porter. I'd put it at a 90% chance right now.

[Dat2U]

This thread grows in a huge hurry! I'm having trouble keeping up.

Yet... it seems obvious to me that if we keep #3 pick, we'll pick Porter. He fits the bill in every possible way. To me he's a surer thing than Noel, and to say his upside is limited...? I don't get that. He's still 19.* He and Beal were freshmen the same year at the same age. Porter was at least as good as Beal, and then he improved as a sophomore.

I doubt there's any GM in the league who would pass on him at #3; my worry is that he gets taken @ #1 or 2.

And... it seems equally obvious to me that we'll keep the #3 pick. For that reason, all the speculation about Center prospects seems odd to me.


* Actually... today's Porter's birthday so he's turned 20.

My thoughts as well. I don't get the limited upside. Porter can certaintly improve his skill level. I think he's got the requiste athleticim for the position, especially considering his length.

I think he'll stand out, much like Paul George does as a SF, simply because of the lack of above average SFs in the league. With LeBron & Melo basically making full time moves to the 4 position, I suspect Porter will be a top 5 SF in two years or so.

[payitforward]

How about this thought experiment all the same? Suppose we could trade our #3 for #s 19, 20, 31 & 34. Obviously, this is unrealistic, but just on the question of talent....

We'd be able to add Caldwell-Pope and Shane Larkin plus Jaiteh and Mike Muscala -- off of the DR mock draft as of this week. Would that be worth doing? We'd then be able to pick maybe Livio Jean-Charles at our #38.

Just a thought experiment, as I say, but... what do you think?

[sfam]

I haven't read anything saying Wall wants us to draft a specfic player. I wouldn't worry about what Wall wants at this stage, although he's right about wanting a stretch 4 and a 3rd guard.

The only 4 who has legitimately shown stretch 4 ability is Bennett, so he may as well have simply said it.

I'm starting to think he might be the pick. That in combination with Ernies comments about how he may have chosen the guy at 3 that may have been available at 8, Bennett falls right in line with his and Walls comments.

We can only hope!

[montestewart]

And... it seems equally obvious to me that we'll keep the #3 pick. For that reason, all the speculation about Center prospects seems odd to me.

Coming from multiple angles: trade downs and trade ups/trade ins (using one or both 2nd rounders and other assets), and with the Mavs, Jazz and Bucks most frequently mentioned. Len and Zeller likely gone there, but some or all of Adams, Dieng, Gobert, Olynyk still around.

[nate33]

How about this thought experiment all the same? Suppose we could trade our #3 for #s 19, 20, 31 & 34. Obviously, this is unrealistic, but just on the question of talent....

We'd be able to add Caldwell-Pope and Shane Larkin plus Jaiteh and Mike Muscala -- off of the DR mock draft as of this week. Would that be worth doing? We'd then be able to pick maybe Livio Jean-Charles at our #38.

Just a thought experiment, as I say, but... what do you think?

I think that would be a disaster.